My main fields of research are international macroeconomics, macroeconomics, and monetary economics.
I am an applied theorist, mostly specializing in the development of models for analysis of economic fluctuations and policy questions. My main current research agenda focuses on structural reforms of product and labor markets and their interaction with economic conditions and macroeconomic policy, and on the interaction of trade integration and monetary policy.
I have been fortunate to have many outstanding Ph.D. students over the years, and much of my recent and ongoing work is coauthored with some of them. The best example of the policy relevance of our research is the April 2016 issue of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), where the model-based part of the analysis of product and labor market reforms is based on the results of work I coauthored with Matteo Cacciatore, Giuseppe Fiori, and Romain Duval (who, in case you are curious, was not my student). If you are ever tempted to think of me in the way many currently use the term “neoliberal” economist, please refer to what Duncan Weldon had to say about that WEO chapter: “a chapter on structural reforms which is a million miles away from the simple caricature of what people tend to believe the IMF recommends” (Weldon’s article is available here). I am a pro-market economist, but I also believe that market outcomes are often characterized by distortions, and that government policy plays an important role in addressing those distortions.
“Macro Needs Micro”: My thoughts on the future of macroeconomics; published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy symposium on “Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory” (volume 34, Spring-Summer 2018, pp. 195-218). A Vox Talks podcast on this paper is here.
Summary and draft of paper on “International Trade in Open Economy Macroeconomics,” in preparation for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance.
“Putting More Micro in Macro and Using It for Policy Analysis,” slides of a presentation to University of Washington Economics Honors undergraduate students, April 2017.
These papers are copyrighted by the respective publisher. A single copy may be downloaded and printed for the reader’s personal research and study only. No other use is permitted.
“Financial Market Integration, Exchange Rate Policy, and the Dynamics of Business and Employment in Korea,” with Matteo Cacciatore and Yurim Lee, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 42 (December 2016): 79-99.
“Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: Market Deregulation and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies,” with Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, and Giuseppe Fiori, Journal of International Money and Finance 68 (November 2016): 358-385.
“Market Deregulation and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union,” with Matteo Cacciatore and Giuseppe Fiori, Journal of International Economics 99 (March 2016): 120-137. Online Appendix. A non-technical note on the macroeconomic and policy implications of market reforms obtained in this paper is available here.
“The Domestic and International Effects of Euro Area Market Reforms,” with Matteo Cacciatore and Giuseppe Fiori, Research in Economics 69 (December 2015): 555-581.
“Inflation Targeting and Economic Reforms in New Zealand,” with Matteo Cacciatore and Stephen J. Turnovsky, International Journal of Central Banking 11, Supplement 1 (September 2015): 145-198.
“The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking,” with Matteo Cacciatore and Viktors Stebunovs, Journal of International Economics 95 (March 2015): 171-187. Online Appendix.
“Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09,” with Matthieu Bussičre, Giovanni Callegari, Giulia Sestieri, and Norihiko Yamano, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5 (July 2013): 118-151. Online Appendix. NBER WP version (relation to Houthakker-Magee puzzle).
“Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy,” with Talan B. İşcan and Alessandro Rebucci, Journal of International Money and Finance 27 (December 2008): 1337-1359.
“The Role of Net Foreign Assets in a New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (June 2008): 1780-1811.
“Interest Rate Rules for Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,” with Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo Benigno, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 31 (July 2007): 2196-2211.
“Trade Flow Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms,” with Marc J. Melitz, American Economic Review 97 (May 2007, AER Papers and Proceedings): 356-361.
“Macroeconomic Interdependence under Incomplete Markets,” Journal of International Economics 70 (December 2006): 428-450.
“International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms,” with Marc J. Melitz, Quarterly Journal of Economics CXX (August 2005): 865-915. Technical Appendix. Information on bugs that were left in our original code. Code by William Gatt, posted in Johannes Pfeifer’s repository.
“Transatlantic Tradeoffs in the Age of Balanced Budgets and European Monetary Union,” with Barry Eichengreen, Open Economies Review 13 (October 2002): 381-411.
“Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived,” with Michele Cavallo, Journal of Monetary Economics 49 (July 2002): 1057-1097.
“Currency Areas, International Monetary Regimes, and the Employment-Inflation Tradeoff,” with Francesco Giavazzi, Journal of International Economics 45 (August 1998): 259-296.
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics:
“Macro Needs Micro,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 34 (Spring-Summer 2018): 195-218.
“Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Ippei Fujiwara, Journal of Monetary Economics 64 (May 2014): 1-20. Technical Appendix.
“Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Marc J. Melitz, Journal of Political Economy 120 (April 2012): 304-345. NBER WP version (more results).
,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Marc J. Melitz, in Acemoglu, D., K. S. Rogoff, and M. Woodford, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2008, 299-353. The Appendix is available here.
“Does It Matter (for Equilibrium Determinacy) What Price Index the Central Bank Targets?” with Charles T. Carlstrom and Timothy S. Fuerst, Journal of Economic Theory 128 (May 2006): 214-231.
Some Chapters in Books:
“Germany Did Not Pursue Fiscal Devaluation,” with Benjamin Weigert, in Marin, D., ed., Explaining Germany’s Exceptional Recovery,” VoxEU.org eBook, London: CEPR Press, 2018.
“Policy Packages: Challenge and Opportunity for DSGE Research,” in Gürkaynak, R. S., and C. Tille, eds., DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as Intended, VoxEU.org eBook, London: CEPR Press, 2017.
“EMU and Enlargement,” with Barry Eichengreen, in Buti, M., and A. Sapir, eds., EMU and Economic Policy in Europe: The Challenge of the Early Years, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003. (Before May 2001, this paper circulated under the title “The Future of EMU” and contained more material on fiscal policy and less on some issues that pertain to EMU enlargement. You can access that version by clicking here.)
Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation,” with Barry
Eichengreen, in Eichengreen, B., ed., Transatlantic Economic Relations in
the Post-Cold War Era, Brookings Institution Press,
“How Will Transatlantic Policy Interactions Change with the Advent of EMU?” with Barry Eichengreen, in Eichengreen, B., European Monetary Unification: Theory, Practice, and Analysis, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1997.
“Out in the Sunshine? Outsiders, Insiders, and the United States in 1998,” with Francesco Giavazzi, in Siebert, H., ed., Quo Vadis Europe? J.C.B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), Tübingen, 1997.
“European Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead,” with Barry Eichengreen, in Torres, F., ed., Monetary Reform in Europe, Universidade Católica Editora, Lisbon, 1996.
Notes and Comments:
Commentary on ‘Is There Macroprudential Policy without International Cooperation?’ by Stephen G. Cecchetti and Paul M. W. Tucker, with Lawrence Schembri, in Glick, R., and M. M. Spiegel, eds., Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy, Asia Economic Policy 2015 Conference Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2016.
“Comments on ‘Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Flexibility in a Simple Dynamic General Equilibrium Model’ by Michael B. Devereux,” with Kólver Hernández, Journal of Macroeconomics 26 (June 2004): 309-313.
Reverse chronological order, by date of first draft.
“Multinational Production, Risk Sharing, and Home Equity Bias,” with Marketa Halova Wolfe, in progress.
“Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool,” with Galip Kemal Ozhan, first draft: January 2018; this draft: May 2018.
“International Trade in Open Economy Macroeconomics,” October 2017; in preparation for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance.
“Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound,” with Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, and Giuseppe Fiori, first draft: April 2016; this draft: August 2017.
“Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy,” with Matteo Cacciatore, first draft: November 2012; this draft: September 2014.
"Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies," with Alessandro Rebucci, BC Econ. Dept. WP 476, first draft: October 2000; this draft: June 2003.
"Endogenously Persistent Output Dynamics: A Puzzle for the Sticky-Price Model?" BC Econ. Dept. WP 527, first draft: March 2002.
"Towards New Open Economy Macroeconometrics," BC Econ. Dept. WP 469, first draft: August 1999; this draft: February 2000.
"Alternative Monetary Rules for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada," BC Econ. Dept. WP 466, first draft: November 1998; this draft: October 2000.
"U.S.-Europe Economic Interdependence and Policy Transmission," BC Econ. Dept. WP 470, first draft: March 1998; this draft: January 2000. (Previously circulated under the title "U.S.-Europe Economic Interdependence: Positive Analysis.")
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics:
“Heterogeneous Firm Financing over the Business Cycle,” with Karen K. Lewis, in progress.
“Equity Sales and Manager Efficiency across Firms and the Business Cycle,” with Karen K. Lewis, first draft: March 2008; this draft: March 2011 (IMES Discussion Paper 2011-E-7, Bank of Japan).
“Optimal Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Product Variety,” with Sanjay K. Chugh, first draft: April 2009; this draft: June 2015. NBER WP version (different approach to model description: explicit modeling of multi-product firm; same equilibrium conditions).
“Monopoly Power and Endogenous Variety in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: Distortions and Remedies,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Marc J. Melitz, first draft: June 2006; this draft: May 2016.
“Relative Price Dynamics and the Aggregate Economy,” with Charles T. Carlstrom, Timothy S. Fuerst, and Kólver Hernández, first draft: May 2005; this draft: August 2006.
“Some Introductory Remarks on Reform, Trade Policy, and the Renminbi,” Panel Presentation, Washington State China Relations Council Policy Briefings Series, Outlook on China’s Economy and Market Reforms: Risks and Rewards, U.S. Bank Center, Seattle, June 28, 2017.
“Market Reforms, the Business Cycle, and Macro Policy” (video), Keynote Presentation, XIII INTECO Workshop on Economic Integration, University Jaume I, Castellón, November 25, 2016. If the video link above does not work, try this. Slides are available here.
“Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound” (slides), Keynote Presentation, MACFINROBODS, Third Consortium Scientific Workshop, Villa del Grumello, Como, November 17, 2016.
“Growth Potential and Macroeconomic Policy: What Reforms? When? And What Role for Macro Policy?” (slides), Panel Presentation, Bank of Korea-Korea University BK 21 Conference on Growth Potential and Macroeconomic Policy, Seoul, October 28, 2016.
“Rethinking Trade and Interdependence in the Age of GVCs” (slides), Keynote Panel Presentation, CEPR-National Bank of Poland-CEBRA-Bank of Lithuania Conference on International Trade and Macroeconomic Interdependence in the Age of Global Value Chains, Vilnius, September 15-16, 2016. (I speak briefly on competitiveness and policy options for deficit and surplus countries at minute 4:28 of this video.)
“Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound,” Keynote Presentation, CEPR Leuven Workshop on Understanding the Micro Channels Affecting Growth, KU Leuven, April 28-29, 2016.
“What Do Global Value Chains Mean for Macro Policies?” Panel Presentation, CEPR-World Bank First Conference on Global Value Chains, Trade and Development, Washington, DC, March 30-31, 2016. (Link is to video of the panel; my presentation begins at approximately minute 17:00. My slides are available here.)
“Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy,” Keynote Speech, HKUST-Keio-HKIMR Conference on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics, Hong Kong, March 17-18, 2016.
“The Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Structural Reforms,” Academic Panel Presentation, ECB-CompNet Conference: Enhancing Competitiveness and Fostering Sustainable Growth: Methodological Issues and Empirical Results, Frankfurt, June 25-26, 2015. Audio of my presentation and the following Q&A is available here. My presentation begins at minute 46:58.
“The Monetary Policy Implications of Market Reforms and Trade Integration,” Keynote Speech, 10th CompNet Workshop, Banco de Portugal, Lisbon, September 18-19, 2014.
“The Monetary Policy Implications of Market Reforms and Trade Integration,” Keynote Speech, Mainz Workshop in Trade and Macroeconomics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, June 26-27, 2014.
“Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy,” Plenary Presentation, Korean Economic Association 60th Anniversary Conference, Korea University, Seoul, June 20-21, 2012.
“The Efficiency of Entry, Monopoly, and Market Deregulation,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Marc J. Melitz, VOX, September 13, 2016. (Based on our paper on “Monopoly Power and Endogenous Variety in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: Distortions and Remedies.”)
“TPP Is a Structural Reform: Let’s Evaluate It with Structural Models,” VOX, July 3, 2016.
“Variable Geometry Bites Back: Schäuble’s Motives,” VOX, July 18, 2015.
“Understanding the Great Trade Collapse of 2009,” with Matthieu Bussičre and Giulia Sestieri, VOX, February 14, 2012. (Based on our paper with Giovanni Callegari and Norihiko Yamano on “Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09.”)
“Macro Needs Micro,” Vox Talks, December 7, 2017.
“A Conversation on the Future of Macroeconomics with Narayana Kocherlakota and Roger Farmer,” September 20, 2017.
“On the Blanchard Classification of Macroeconomic Models,” April 20, 2017.
“The Loud Silence of the Pretzel Bloggers,” April 7, 2017.
“The Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Reforms,” February 3, 2017, L’Incontro del Mattino, Club Brera, Milan (slides).
“Not All DSGEs Are Created Equal,” January 26, 2017.
“Get Over That 1920s Thing,” January 22, 2017.
“The Elite BS That Helped Pave the Way to Brexit and Trump,” December 22, 2016.
“Trade Matters—and Not for Trade’s Sake,” October 15, 2016.
“Will TPP Be Good for the American Worker?” October 11, 2016.
“On Straightjackets versus Coordination,” July 25, 2016.
“On ‘Toy Models’,” July 18, 2016.
“A Conversation on Macroeconomic Models for Policy Advice,” June 8, 2016.
“TPP Is a Structural Reform: Let’s Evaluate It with Structural Models,” May 22, 2016.
Randy Woods quotes me in “Trump’s Trade Focus Risks Missing the Mark as NAFTA Talks Begin,” Bloomberg, August 15, 2017.
My thoughts in “Dark Days Ahead: American Professors on Trump Presidency,” by Isolde Raftery and Abraham Epton, KUOW, November 11, 2016.
“China’s Economic Reforms: Global Outlook. Insights from Fabio Ghironi,” interview by Mercy A. Kuo for The Diplomat, July 29, 2016.
Shawn Donnan quotes my tweet in “IMF Economists Put ‘Neoliberalism’ under the Spotlight,” Financial Times, May 26, 2016.
Shawn Donnan quotes me in “Obama Fights Back against Trump over US Trade Deals,” Financial Times, May 19, 2016.
Discussion of ‘Ricardian Exchange Rate Redux,’ by Matthieu Bussičre, Guillaume Gaulier, Maurice Obstfeld, and Katheryn Niles Russ, ASSA Meetings, San Francisco, January 3-5, 2016.
Discussion of ‘Is There Macroprudential Policy without International Cooperation?’ by Stephen G. Cecchetti and Paul M. W. Tucker, Asia Economic Policy Conference: Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 19-20, 2015.
Discussion of ‘Exchange Rate Movements, Firm-Level Exports, and Heterogeneity,’ by Antoine Berthou, Vlad Demian, and Emmanuel Dhyne, ECB-CompNet Conference: Enhancing Competitiveness and Fostering Sustainable Growth: Methodological Issues and Empirical Results, Frankfurt, June 25-26, 2015.
Discussion of ‘International Competitiveness and Monetary Policy,’ by Paul R. Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti, CPBS 2014 Pacific Basin Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 7, 2014.
Discussion of ‘Dynamics of Firms and Trade in General Equilibrium,’ by Robert Dekle, Hyeok Jeong, and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, NBER ITM Summer Institute Meeting, Cambridge, MA, July 8, 2014.
Discussion of ‘Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates,’ by Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning, Boston University/Boston Fed Conference on Macro-Finance Linkages, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, November 30-December 1, 2012.
Discussion of ‘Exchange Rates and Interest Parity,’ by Charles Engel, Handbook of International Economics Conference, NBER, Cambridge, MA, September 14-15, 2012.
Discussion of ‘Fiscal Devaluations,’ by Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, and Oleg Itskhoki, NBER ME Program Meeting, New York, March 2, 2012.
Discussion of ‘Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy,’ by Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, and Gernot J. Müller, 14th Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, October 21-22, 2010.
Discussion of ‘On the Global Spread of Risk Panics,’ by Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop, ECB-JIE Conference: What Future for Financial Globalization? Frankfurt, September 9-10, 2010.
Discussion of ‘International Recessions,’ by Fabrizio Perri and Vincenzo Quadrini, NBER IFM Program Meeting, Cambridge, MA, March 12, 2010.
of ‘Risk, Returns, and Multinational Production,’ by José L. Fillat and
Stefania Garetto, Green Line Macro Meeting,
Discussion of ‘The
Effects of Globalization on International Business Cycle Co-Movement: Is All
Trade and Finance Created Equal?’ by Scott Davis, NBER Universities
‘Sticky Prices, Endogenous Export Participation, and Real Exchange Rate
Fluctuations,’ by Denny Lie, Green Line Macro Meeting,
Discussion of ‘International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks,’ by Nicolas Coeurdacier, Robert Kollmann, and Philippe Martin, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, Istanbul, June 15-16, 2007.
‘The Role of Nonseparable Utility and Nontradables in International Business
Cycle and Portfolio Choice,’ by Akito Matsumoto, NBER IFM Program Meeting,
of ‘Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle,’ by
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Olivier Jeanne, 2007 ASSA Meetings,
Discussion of ‘A
Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows,’ by Jiandong Ju and
Shang-Jin Wei, NBER IFM Summer Institute,
Discussion of ‘The
Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money,
Entry, and Multinational Firms,’ by Katheryn Niles Russ, NBER Universities
Discussion of ‘The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy,’ by Hafedh Bouakez, Emanuela Cardia, and Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Dynamic Models and Monetary Policymaking, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, September 22-24, 2004.
Discussion of ‘Ramsey Monetary Policy with Financial Distortions,’ by Ester Faia, Second ECB/IMOP Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, Hydra, June 4-5, 2004.
Discussion of 'Exchange Rate Policy and Endogenous Price Flexibility,' by Michael B. Devereux, with Kólver Hernández, 5th Bundesbank Spring Conference, Eltville, May 2-3, 2003.
Discussion of 'Optimal Monetary Policy with Durable and Non-Durable Goods,' by Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, July 5-6, 2002.
My web pages in EconPapers, IDEAS, Microsoft Academic Search, ResearchGate, and SSRN. In these pages, you can find links to papers or versions of papers that are not available above and additional information on citations, coauthors, etc.