Fabio Ghironi
Research
Publications,
Working Papers, Keynote, Plenary,
and Panel Presentations, Discussions, Other Research
Pages
My main fields
of research are international macroeconomics, macroeconomics, and monetary
economics.
I am an applied
theorist, mostly specializing in the development of models for analysis of
economic fluctuations and policy questions.
My work with
Marc Melitz on international
trade and macroeconomic dynamics with producer entry and heterogeneous firms
has been the foundation of extensions by many other scholars to study questions
of positive and normative nature. The
same is true of the work that Marc and I did with Florin Bilbiie on entry and product
variety in a closed-economy environment.
The work on
structural reforms that I did with my former Ph.D. students Matteo Cacciatore
and Giuseppe Fiori, and with Romain Duval (who was not my student), provided
the theoretical framework for the analysis
of structural reforms of product and labor markets in the April 2016 issue
of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO).
If you are ever tempted to think of me in the way many use the term
“neoliberal” economist, please refer to what Duncan Weldon had to say about
that WEO chapter: “a chapter on structural reforms which is a million miles
away from the simple caricature of what people tend to believe the IMF
recommends” (Weldon’s article is available here). I am a pro-market economist, but I also
believe that market outcomes are often characterized by distortions, and that
government policy plays an important role in addressing those distortions.
The methodology
that I developed with Matthieu Bussičre, Giovanni Callegari, Giulia Sestieri,
and Norihiko Yamano to study the international trade collapse of 2008-09 was
used in the October 2016 issue of the IMF
WEO to analyze the determinants
of the slowdown in global trade.
Between late
2016 and early 2017, I had the opportunity to contribute to an important debate
on the future of macroeconomics in “Macro Needs Micro,”
eventually published in an Oxford Review of Economic Policy
symposium on “Rebuilding
Macroeconomic Theory” (volume 34, Spring-Summer 2018, pp. 195-218). A Vox Talks podcast on this paper is here.
You can find
here the summary
and draft of a
paper on “International Trade in Open Economy Macroeconomics,” in preparation
for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia
of Economics and Finance.
Publications:
These papers are
copyrighted by the respective publisher. A single copy may be downloaded
and printed for the reader’s personal research and study only. No other
use is permitted.
Journal
Articles:
International
Macroeconomics:
“Trade,
Unemployment, and Monetary Policy,” with Matteo Cacciatore, Journal of International Economics
(September 2021): 103488. A Twitter thread on the main results
of this paper and one on its story.
JIE Twitter summary of
the paper. Replication
files.
“Protectionism and
the Business Cycle,” with Alessandro Barattieri and Matteo Cacciatore, Journal of International Economics 129
(March 2021): 103417. Oxford
Analytica Brief, VOX column.
In the press: Břrsen (in Danish, translation here),
Wall
Street Journal, MarketWatch.
Replication files.
“Financial
Market Integration, Exchange Rate Policy, and the Dynamics of Business and
Employment in Korea,” with Matteo Cacciatore and Yurim Lee, Journal of the Japanese and International
Economies 42 (December 2016): 79-99.
“Market
Reforms in the Time of Imbalance,” with Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval,
and Giuseppe Fiori, Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control 72 (November 2016): 69-93. Online
Appendix.
“Short-Term
Pain for Long-Term Gain: Market Deregulation and Monetary Policy in Small Open
Economies,” with Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, and Giuseppe Fiori, Journal of International Money and Finance
68 (November 2016): 358-385.
“Market
Deregulation and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union,” with Matteo
Cacciatore and Giuseppe Fiori, Journal of
International Economics 99 (March 2016): 120-137. Online
Appendix. A non-technical note on the macroeconomic and policy implications
of market reforms obtained in this paper is available here.
“The
Domestic and International Effects of Euro Area Market Reforms,” with
Matteo Cacciatore and Giuseppe Fiori, Research
in Economics 69 (December 2015): 555-581.
“The
Valuation Channel of External Adjustment,” with Jaewoo Lee and Alessandro
Rebucci, Journal of International Money
and Finance 57 (October 2015): 86-114. Technical
Appendix.
“Inflation
Targeting and Economic Reforms in New Zealand,” with Matteo Cacciatore and
Stephen J. Turnovsky, International
Journal of Central Banking 11, Supplement 1 (September 2015): 145-198.
“The
Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking,” with Matteo
Cacciatore and Viktors Stebunovs, Journal
of International Economics 95 (March 2015): 171-187. Online
Appendix.
“Estimating
Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09,”
with Matthieu Bussičre, Giovanni Callegari, Giulia Sestieri, and Norihiko
Yamano, American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics 5 (July 2013): 118-151. Online
Appendix. Replication
data. NBER WP version
(relation to Houthakker-Magee puzzle). VOX
column.
“Net
Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy,”
with Talan B. İşcan and Alessandro Rebucci, Journal of
International Money and Finance 27 (December 2008): 1337-1359. Working paper version (Boston
College Economics WP 565, June 2003): It includes more results and details,
including on the determination and role of the world interest rate in a world
with population growth and differences in impatience across countries.
“The Role of Net
Foreign Assets in a New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model,” Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (June 2008): 1780-1811.
“Interest Rate
Rules for Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,” with Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo
Benigno, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 31 (July 2007):
2196-2211.
“Trade Flow
Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms,” with Marc J. Melitz, American
Economic Review 97 (May 2007, AER Papers and Proceedings): 356-361. Longer
working paper version.
“Macroeconomic
Interdependence under Incomplete Markets,” Journal of International
Economics 70 (December 2006): 428-450.
“International
Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms,” with Marc J.
Melitz, Quarterly Journal of Economics CXX (August 2005): 865-915. Technical
Appendix. NSF
Grant Project (Award # 0417757). Information on bugs
that were left in our original code. Code
by William Gatt, posted in Johannes Pfeifer’s
repository.
“Transatlantic
Tradeoffs in the Age of Balanced Budgets and European Monetary Union,” with
Barry Eichengreen, Open Economies Review 13 (October 2002): 381-411.
“Net Foreign
Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived,” with Michele Cavallo, Journal
of Monetary Economics 49 (July 2002): 1057-1097.
“Currency Areas,
International Monetary Regimes, and the Employment-Inflation Tradeoff,”
with Francesco Giavazzi, Journal of International Economics 45 (August
1998): 259-296.
Macroeconomics
and Monetary Economics:
“Market
Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound,” with Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, and
Giuseppe Fiori, Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking 53 (June 2021): 745-777. CEPR
DP or NBER WP version
(open economy).
“Monopoly Power and
Endogenous Product Variety: Distortions and Remedies,” with Florin O.
Bilbiie and Marc J. Melitz, American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11 (October 2019): 140-174. VOX
column.
“Macro Needs Micro,”
Oxford Review of Economic Policy 34
(Spring-Summer 2018): 195-218. Vox Talks podcast.
“Optimal
Monetary Policy with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety,” with Florin O.
Bilbiie and Ippei Fujiwara, Journal of
Monetary Economics 64 (May 2014): 1-20. Technical
Appendix.
“Endogenous Entry,
Product Variety, and Business Cycles,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Marc J.
Melitz, Journal of Political Economy
120 (April 2012): 304-345. NBER WP
version (more results).
“Monetary Policy
and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety,” with Florin O. Bilbiie and Marc J.
Melitz, in Acemoglu, D., K. S. Rogoff, and M. Woodford, eds., NBER
Macroeconomics Annual 2007,
University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2008, 299-353. The Appendix is available here.
“Does It Matter
(for Equilibrium Determinacy) What Price Index the Central Bank Targets?”
with Charles T. Carlstrom and Timothy S. Fuerst, Journal of Economic Theory
128 (May 2006): 214-231.
Some
Chapters in Books:
“Germany
Did Not Pursue Fiscal Devaluation,” with Benjamin Weigert, in Marin, D.,
ed., Explaining Germany’s Exceptional
Recovery,” VoxEU.org eBook, London: CEPR Press, 2018.
“Policy
Packages: Challenge and Opportunity for DSGE Research,” in Gürkaynak, R.
S., and C. Tille, eds., DSGE
Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as Intended, VoxEU.org eBook,
London: CEPR Press, 2017.
“Net
Foreign Assets and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Monetary Model Revisited,”
with Michele Cavallo, in Hairault, J. O., and T. Sopraseuth, eds., Exchange
Rate Dynamics: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Perspective, Routledge, London, 2003.
“EMU and
Enlargement,” with Barry Eichengreen, in Buti, M., and A. Sapir, eds., EMU
and Economic Policy in Europe: The Challenge of the Early Years,
Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003. (Before May 2001, this paper circulated under
the title “The Future of EMU” and contained more material on fiscal policy and
less on some issues that pertain to EMU enlargement. You can access that
version by clicking here.)
“European
Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation,” with Barry
Eichengreen, in Eichengreen, B., ed., Transatlantic Economic Relations in
the Post-Cold War Era, Brookings Institution Press,
“How
Will Transatlantic Policy Interactions Change with the Advent of EMU?” with
Barry Eichengreen, in Eichengreen, B., European
Monetary Unification: Theory, Practice, and Analysis, MIT Press, Cambridge,
1997.
“Out
in the Sunshine? Outsiders, Insiders, and the United States in 1998,” with
Francesco Giavazzi, in Siebert, H., ed., Quo
Vadis Europe? J.C.B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), Tübingen, 1997.
“European
Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead,” with Barry Eichengreen, in
Torres, F., ed., Monetary Reform in Europe, Universidade
Católica Editora, Lisbon, 1996.
Notes
and Comments:
Commentary
on ‘Is There Macroprudential Policy without International Cooperation?’ by
Stephen G. Cecchetti and Paul M. W. Tucker, with Lawrence Schembri, in
Glick, R., and M. M. Spiegel, eds., Policy
Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy, Asia Economic Policy 2015
Conference Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2016.
“Comments
on ‘Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Flexibility in a Simple Dynamic
General Equilibrium Model’ by Michael B. Devereux,” with Kólver Hernández, Journal
of Macroeconomics 26 (June 2004): 309-313.
Introductions to
Special Journal Issues Edited:
“Globalization
in the Aftermath of the Crisis,” with Andrei Levchenko, IMF Economic Review 66 (September 2018):
415-417.
“International
Trade and Macroeconomics: Introduction,” with Paul R. Bergin, International Review of Economics &
Finance 26 (April 2013): 1-3.
“New Policy
Thinking in Macroeconomics: Editor’s Foreword,” International Finance 8:3 (December 2005): 361.
Reverse
chronological order, by date of first draft.
International
Macroeconomics:
“Multinational Production,
Risk Sharing, and Home Equity Bias,” with Marketa Halova Wolfe, first
draft: September 2018. Technical
Appendix.
“Interest
Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool?” with Galip Kemal Ozhan, first draft:
January 2018; this draft: March 2022. A Twitter
thread on this paper.
“International Trade
in Open Economy Macroeconomics,” October 2017; in preparation for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics
and Finance.
"Monetary Rules for Emerging Market
Economies," with Alessandro Rebucci, BC Econ. Dept. WP 476, first
draft: October 2000; this draft: June 2003.
"Endogenously Persistent Output
Dynamics: A Puzzle for the Sticky-Price Model?" BC Econ. Dept. WP 527,
first draft: March 2002.
"Towards New Open Economy
Macroeconometrics," BC Econ. Dept. WP 469, first draft: August 1999;
this draft: February 2000.
"Alternative Monetary Rules for a
Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada," BC Econ. Dept. WP 466, first
draft: November 1998; this draft: October 2000.
"U.S.-Europe Economic Interdependence
and Policy Transmission," BC Econ. Dept. WP 470, first draft: March
1998; this draft: January 2000. (Previously circulated under the title
"U.S.-Europe Economic Interdependence: Positive Analysis.")
Macroeconomics
and Monetary Economics:
“Heterogeneous
Firm Financing over the Business Cycle,” with Karen K. Lewis, in progress.
“Equity Sales
and Manager Efficiency across Firms and the Business Cycle,” with Karen K.
Lewis, first draft: March 2008; this draft: March 2011 (IMES Discussion Paper
2011-E-7, Bank of Japan).
“Optimal
Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Product Variety,” with Sanjay K. Chugh and
Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, first draft: April 2009; this draft: July 2020. NBER WP version (different
approach to model description: explicit modeling of multi-product firm; same
equilibrium conditions).
“Relative
Price Dynamics and the Aggregate Economy,” with Charles T. Carlstrom,
Timothy S. Fuerst, and Kólver Hernández, first draft: May 2005; this draft:
August 2006.
Keynote,
Plenary, and Panel Presentations:
“Structural
Reforms and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union,” Conference in Honor of Francesco
Giavazzi’s 70th Birthday, Bocconi University, Milan, September 21, 2019. This
was not a keynote, plenary, or panel
presentation. I was originally scheduled to present a paper at the conference.
However, ECB President Mario Draghi intervened to speak about reforms and
recent ECB policy decisions, and I was asked to precede his intervention by
giving a non-technical presentation of results of my research agenda with
Matteo Cacciatore, Giuseppe Fiori, and Romain Duval instead of presenting the
originally scheduled paper. Given the nature of the presentation, I am posting
the slides here.
“Some
Introductory Remarks on Reform, Trade Policy, and the Renminbi,” Panel Presentation, Washington State
China Relations Council Policy Briefings Series, Outlook on China’s Economy and
Market Reforms: Risks and Rewards, U.S. Bank Center, Seattle, June 28, 2017.
“Market
Reforms, the Business Cycle, and Macro Policy” (video), Keynote Presentation, XIII
INTECO Workshop on Economic Integration, University Jaume I, Castellón, November
25, 2016. If the video link above does not work, try this. Slides are available here.
“Market
Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound”
(slides), Keynote Presentation, MACFINROBODS, Third Consortium Scientific
Workshop, Villa del Grumello, Como, November 17, 2016.
“Growth
Potential and Macroeconomic Policy: What Reforms? When? And What Role for Macro
Policy?”
(slides), Panel Presentation, Bank of Korea-Korea University BK 21 Conference
on Growth Potential and Macroeconomic Policy, Seoul, October 28, 2016.
“Rethinking
Trade and Interdependence in the Age of GVCs” (slides), Keynote Panel Presentation,
CEPR-National Bank of Poland-CEBRA-Bank of Lithuania Conference on
International Trade and Macroeconomic Interdependence in the Age of Global
Value Chains, Vilnius, September 15-16, 2016. (I speak briefly on
competitiveness and policy options for deficit and surplus countries at minute
4:28 of this
video.)
“Market
Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound,”
Keynote Presentation, CEPR Leuven Workshop on Understanding the Micro Channels
Affecting Growth, KU Leuven, April 28-29, 2016.
“What Do
Global Value Chains Mean for Macro Policies?” Panel Presentation, CEPR-World Bank
First Conference on Global Value Chains, Trade and Development, Washington, DC,
March 30-31, 2016. (Link is to video of the panel; my presentation begins at
approximately minute 17:00. My slides are available here.)
“Trade,
Unemployment, and Monetary Policy,” Keynote
Speech, HKUST-Keio-HKIMR Conference on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics, Hong
Kong, March 17-18, 2016.
“The
Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Structural Reforms,” Academic
Panel Presentation, ECB-CompNet Conference: Enhancing Competitiveness and
Fostering Sustainable Growth: Methodological Issues and Empirical Results,
Frankfurt, June 25-26, 2015. Audio of my presentation and the following Q&A
is available here.
My presentation begins at minute 46:58.
“The
Monetary Policy Implications of Market Reforms and Trade Integration,”
Keynote Speech, 10th CompNet Workshop, Banco de Portugal, Lisbon, September
18-19, 2014.
“The Monetary
Policy Implications of Market Reforms and Trade Integration,” Keynote
Speech, Mainz Workshop in Trade and Macroeconomics, Johannes
Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, June 26-27, 2014.
“Trade,
Unemployment, and Monetary Policy,” Plenary Presentation, Korean Economic
Association 60th Anniversary Conference, Korea University, Seoul, June 20-21,
2012.
Presentations to University of
Washington Students in Other Programs:
“The
Macroeconomic Effects of Protectionism,” slides of a presentation to MBA
students in the Global Business Forum at the Michael G. Foster School of Business, University
of Washington, November 26, 2018.
“Putting
More Micro in Macro and Using It for Policy Analysis,” slides of a
presentation to University of Washington
Economics Honors undergraduate students, April 26, 2017.
Discussion
of ‘Ricardian Exchange Rate Redux,’ by Matthieu Bussičre, Guillaume Gaulier,
Maurice Obstfeld, and Katheryn Niles Russ, ASSA Meetings, San Francisco,
January 3-5, 2016.
Discussion
of ‘Is There Macroprudential Policy without International Cooperation?’ by
Stephen G. Cecchetti and Paul M. W. Tucker, Asia Economic Policy
Conference: Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy, Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco, November 19-20, 2015.
Discussion
of ‘Exchange Rate Movements, Firm-Level Exports, and Heterogeneity,’ by Antoine
Berthou, Vlad Demian, and Emmanuel Dhyne, ECB-CompNet Conference: Enhancing
Competitiveness and Fostering Sustainable Growth: Methodological Issues and
Empirical Results, Frankfurt, June 25-26, 2015.
Discussion
of ‘International Competitiveness and Monetary Policy,’ by Paul R. Bergin and
Giancarlo Corsetti, CPBS 2014 Pacific Basin Research Conference, Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 7, 2014.
Discussion
of ‘Dynamics of Firms and Trade in General Equilibrium,’ by Robert Dekle, Hyeok
Jeong, and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, NBER ITM Summer Institute Meeting, Cambridge,
MA, July 8, 2014.
Discussion
of ‘Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange
Rates,’ by Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning, Boston University/Boston Fed
Conference on Macro-Finance Linkages, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, November
30-December 1, 2012.
Discussion of
‘Exchange Rates and Interest Parity,’ by Charles Engel, Handbook of
International Economics Conference, NBER, Cambridge, MA, September 14-15, 2012.
Discussion
of ‘Fiscal Devaluations,’ by Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, and Oleg Itskhoki,
NBER ME Program Meeting, New York, March 2, 2012.
Discussion
of ‘Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy,’ by Giancarlo Corsetti,
Keith Kuester, and Gernot J. Müller, 14th Annual Conference of the Central
Bank of Chile, Santiago, October 21-22, 2010.
Discussion
of ‘On the Global Spread of Risk Panics,’ by Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van
Wincoop, ECB-JIE Conference: What Future for Financial Globalization?
Frankfurt, September 9-10, 2010.
Discussion
of ‘International Recessions,’ by Fabrizio Perri and Vincenzo Quadrini,
NBER IFM Program Meeting, Cambridge, MA, March 12, 2010.
Discussion
of ‘Risk, Returns, and Multinational Production,’ by José L. Fillat and
Stefania Garetto, Green Line Macro Meeting,
Discussion of ‘The
Effects of Globalization on International Business Cycle Co-Movement: Is All
Trade and Finance Created Equal?’ by Scott Davis, NBER Universities
Research Conference,
Discussion of
‘Sticky Prices, Endogenous Export Participation, and Real Exchange Rate
Fluctuations,’ by Denny Lie, Green Line Macro Meeting,
Discussion
of ‘International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks,’ by
Nicolas Coeurdacier, Robert Kollmann, and Philippe Martin, NBER International
Seminar on Macroeconomics, Istanbul, June 15-16, 2007.
Discussion of
‘The Role of Nonseparable Utility and Nontradables in International Business
Cycle and Portfolio Choice,’ by Akito Matsumoto, NBER IFM Program Meeting,
Discussion
of ‘Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle,’ by
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Olivier Jeanne, 2007 ASSA Meetings,
Discussion of ‘A
Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows,’ by Jiandong Ju and
Shang-Jin Wei, NBER IFM Summer Institute,
Discussion of ‘The
Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money,
Entry, and Multinational Firms,’ by Katheryn Niles Russ, NBER Universities
Research Conference,
Discussion of
‘The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy,’ by Hafedh
Bouakez, Emanuela Cardia, and Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, Dynamic Models and
Monetary Policymaking, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, September 22-24,
2004.
Discussion of
‘Ramsey Monetary Policy with Financial Distortions,’ by Ester Faia, Second
ECB/IMOP Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, Hydra, June 4-5, 2004.
Discussion of
'Exchange Rate Policy and Endogenous Price Flexibility,' by Michael B. Devereux,
with Kólver Hernández, 5th Bundesbank Spring Conference, Eltville, May 2-3,
2003.
Discussion of
'Optimal Monetary Policy with Durable and Non-Durable Goods,' by Christopher J.
Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, International Research Forum on Monetary Policy,
European Central Bank, Frankfurt, July 5-6, 2002.
My citations and profiles: CitEc, Google
Scholar, IDEAS, ResearchGate.
My web page in the University of Washington Economics
Department’s web site.
My web pages in
EconPapers, IDEAS, Microsoft Academic
Search, ResearchGate,
and SSRN. In these pages, you can find links to papers
or versions of papers that are not available above and additional information
on citations, coauthors, etc.
My NBER Publications and Working
Papers.
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