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Maximum Likelihood Methods
for the Social Sciences

POLS/CSSS 510

Social science data seldom meet the assumptions of the linear regression model taught in introductory statistics courses. Our data often consist of discrete categorizations or counts of events, and may be correlated across periods or clustered by groups. Students will use maximum likelihood methods to derive models appropriate for their own data, learn to communicate their findings to a broad audience, and gain familiarity with statistical programming in R.

POLS/CSSS 510

Maximum Likelihood Methods
for the Social Sciences

Offered every Fall at the
University of Washington

Syllabus  

Readings  



Fall 2016

Class meets:
TTh 4:30—5:50 pm
Savery Hall 264

TA:

Daniel Yoo
(Political Science)

Section meets:
F 3:30—4:50 pm
Savery 117

Lectures           PDFs of slides are best viewed in Adobe Acrobat, rather than in your browser.

Topic 1

Introduction to the Course, Probability, and R    

You may want to read through Kevin Quinn’s matrix algebra and probability distribution reviews, or consult my undergrad lectures on discrete and continuous distributions. For a more general review, you can find the lecture notes for the CSSS Math Camp here.


There are also R code and data for exploratory data analysis using histograms and boxplots, code and data for a simple bivariate linear regression, and code and data for a multiple regression example.


Finally, you’ll find detailed instructions for downloading, installing, and learning my recommended software for quantitative social science here. Focus on steps 1.1 and 1.3 for now, and then, optionally, step 1.2.


Topic 2

Introduction to Maximum Likelihood    

The R code to simulate heteroskedastic data and model that data using a heteroskedastic normal maximum likelihood is here.


There are additional mini-lectures on two topics. The first is a review of Bayes Rule. The second presents the Monty Hall problem in color and printable pdf formats. Three versions of the Monte Hall simulation code are available: the first uses a loop and many small steps, the second uses a loop and more compact code, and the third uses lapply() to avoid looping.


Topic 3

Models of Binary Data    

There are separate R scripts for interpreting and selecting binary logit models, as well as an example dataset. The goodness of fit code also relies on R functions for computing the percent correctly predicted and making predicted-versus-actual plots and ROC plots, which you should place in your working directory. An example trio of plots showing actual versus predicted probabilities, error versus predicted probabilities, and the ROC curve can be seen here.


Topic 4

Models of Ordered Data    

R code and data for an ordered probit, which produces graphics for expected value plots and first difference plots.


Topic 5

Models of Nominal Data    

R code for a multinomial logit, which produces a variety of graphical summaries of a multinomial logit model: for expected values plotted together, expected values plotted separately in a tiled format, first difference plotted for a single scenario and all categories, relative risks plotted for a single scenario and all categories, and relative risks plotted for many scenarios at once.


Topic 6

Models of Count Data    

Two code examples are discussed in this lecture.


The first example analyzes bounded counts using Binomial, Beta-Binomial, and Quasibinomial models of turnout in the 2004 general election in Washington state. Example output includes this plot of expected counts under different models for various counterfactual scenarios. Note this example uses multiple imputation to fill in missing data. You will need:

  • The main R script to run the models, cross-validation, and graphics
  • Data (csv format) from the Washington Secretary of State & US Census
  • An R helper file with cross-validation functions

The second example analyzes unbounded counts using Poisson, Negative Binomial, Quasipoisson, Zero-inflated Poisson, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial models of foreclosure filings by Houston, Texas area Home Owner Associations (HOAs). Example output includes this plot of expected values from a zero-inflated negative binomial model. You will need:


Advanced Topic 1

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation    

See the Topic 6 example on turnout for an R code using multiple imputation of missing data.


Advanced Topic 2

Introduction to Multilevel Models    

For the curious, the R script used to construct the example plots in the first half of this lecture is here.


Self-Study Lecture 1

Introduction to Contingency Tables    

This lecture and the two below it introduce log-linear models of tabular data, and will not be presented as part of POLS/CSSS 510. They are posted here for interested students, especially for the use of mosaic plots to investigate cross-tabulated data (in this lecture, and in the third lecture on multidimensional tables). Students interested in a CSSS course on log-linear models should investigate CSSS 536.


Self-Study Lecture 2

Log-linear Models of Contingency Tables: 2D tables    


Self-Study Lecture 3

Log-linear Models of Contingency Tables: 3D+ tables    


Student Assignments

Problem Set 1  

Due in class Thursday 13 October 2016


Problem Set 2  

Due in class Tuesday 25 October 2016


Problem Set 3  

Due in class Thursday 3 November 2016

Data for problem 1 in comma-separated variable format.


Problem Set 4  

Due in class Thursday 15 November 2016

Data for problem 1 in comma-separated variable format.


Problem Set 5  

Due in class Tuesday 29 November 2016

Data for problem 1 in comma-separated variable format; data for problem 2 in R data format.


Problem Set 6  

Due in class Thursday 8 December 2016

Data will be provided.


Poster Presentations

29 November 2015 to 8 December 2016

Requirments and suggestions for poster presentations will be presented in class.


Final Paper

Due Tuesday 13 December 2016, 3:00 pm, both in my Gowen mailbox and by email

See the syllabus for paper requirements, and see my guidelines and recommendations for quantitative research papers.


Labs

Lab 1

Review of Probability and Introduction to R Programming

Please take a look at this handout and data, especially if you are new to R or need a refresher. We will be going over a list of commands that are important to know for the course, using this as a starting point. You can also check out this reference by former TA, Aaron Erlich. If you're already comfortable in R, that's great. You may want to take a look at the tile and simcf packages that we will be using for most the course. Here is the code from Lab 1.


Lab 2

Introduction to Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Please take a look at this handout. Here is the code from Lab 2. Next week, I'll post the code earlier so you can have a chance to look at it before Friday. We'll then go over it in detail and cover as much ground as possible. For those of you having trouble installing simcf, there should be an updated version on Chris's website soon.


Lab 3

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in R

Here is the lab code and data for this week. Please take a look at it before Friday to get an idea of what we'll be covering. Since we did not cover logistic regression during Thursday's lecture, we will be spending more of our time finishing up our discussion from last week.


Lab 4

Goodness of Fit and Variable Selection for Binary Outcome Models

You can find the lab code for this week under Topic 3 of the Lectures section above. Please take the time to install the required packages, and be sure to keep (but not run) the two helper R files in your working directory.


Lab 5

Models of Ordered Data

You can find the lab code and data for this week under Topic 4 of the Lectures section above. Again, please take the time to install the required packages.


Lab 6

Models of Nominal Data

We'll be covering the Gators example from lecture during lab session. You can find the updated code under Topic 5 of the Lectures section above.


Lab 7

Models of Count Data

We will be discussing count models using the voter turnout data in lab session with an application of multiple imputation using Amelia. You can find the code under Topic 6 above.



University of Washington link

CSSS Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences link

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