Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability

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Curator’s Statement – A First Draft

I have created this bibliography and web site for many reasons.  The most obvious one is evident in the stated objective on the home page: To help anyone achieve a better understanding of the challenges facing humanity and other species, why we have these challenges, and what we can do to mitigate, overcome, or adapt to them.  I’ve been a professor type for over 20 years and… teachers gonna teach.  The process of building and keeping this bibliography also appeals to my compulsion to organize while mitigating my tendency to download a pdf or link of every worthy article to overstuffed folders.

But mostly I think building this bibliography has served as a sort of coping mechanism.  As if collecting and organizing these citations gives me some illusion of control, or at least analytical distance, over the (mostly) awful news I am ingesting.  Doing this also wards against the tendency to let the insights I’ve ingested just fade away as disconnected, ephemeral bits of information.  On a daily basis I see how all of this keeps adding up to a set of narratives, most of which point toward an increasingly insecure future.  By filling in the layers and continuing to ponder what it means going forward, I am not shying away from grappling with this stuff. 

Why an online bibliography now?  After all, I have been teaching environmental science since 2000 and oceanography and geology even longer.  That came with a non-stop immersion in the litany of humanity’s environmental sins1 and social injustices2 which in turn required a certain degree of numbness and compartmentalization in order to keep chugging forward.  I could also find some solace in the cumulative victories of environmental policy, a career devoted to the development of others, and the slow growth of environmental awareness. 

If one marries that blend of compartmentalization and solace with a subconscious faith in the moral arc of the universe bending toward justice, and you and yours aren’t suffering any dramatic ill effects from a rapacious socio-economic system (given how it is rigged in your favor), then one (ok, I) can afford to be complacent.  That does not equate to some worthy justification for complacency, of course.  It is, instead, more of a damning self-assessment.  I have to confess to struggling with the cognitive dissonance between what I teach, what I believe to be true and ethical, and how the lifestyle of my family and pretty much everyone I know helps perpetuate a system propagating environmental and social degradation that greatly diminishes the prospects for future generations of people and other species.

This online bibliography is a step in my effort to shake off the complacency and step up the pressure on myself and others to recalibrate our assessments of where a business-as-usual trajectory is taking us, reconsider the way we live our lives and what we support, and reinvent education/politics/community-level planning in order to make the best of a turbulent future.  I believe this is warranted because the warning signals of systemic collapse are blaring (see over a thousand citations in sections IVII of this bibliography).  I cannot brush off the increasing rate at which the bad news is coming out or the increased impact it is clearly having on people (see sections IC, IH, IJ, IIC, IID, and VII).  Furthermore, I have yet to encounter an effort to compile a collection of articles, as I have assembled here, that is meant to help someone navigate the contentious and nebulous terrain of “sustainability.”  More on that several paragraphs below…

Back to the bad news.  One change in the character of the news relevant to our challenges that most people might miss is in the tenor of the reports and articles coming from climate scientists.  After decades of muted and cautious publications, where findings have been semi-obscured in the language of science and uncertainty and skewed toward more palatable projections that ignore worst case scenarios, the gloves are now coming off.  The 2018 report3 of the IPCC hit like a bombshell given its alarming tone and recommendations for urgent, sweeping policy change if we are to have any chance of avoiding catastrophic outcomes in this century.  There are any number of publications that have been released in the past two years from climate researchers and other scientists speaking quite frankly about how dire they think our situation has become.4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Dire in what ways?

To start, too many of the trends in environmental quality, biodiversity, ecosystem services, climate stability, public health, and socio-economic inequities are not only negative, but those trends are accelerating in the wrong direction (see virtually all of the citations in sections I, II, IIIe, IV and VI of this bibliography). We are exceeding or approaching multiple planetary thresholds and in danger of triggering positive earth system feedbacks that can result in runaway manifestations of warming, extinction rates, habitat loss, permafrost methane emissions, ice melt, sea level rise, drought, pandemics, mass migrations, etc., etc.9, 10  If those outcomes sound a bit too abstract or distant to be of concern, then you can just focus on how projections of our continued ability to grow enough food to feed the world are looking increasingly grim.11, 12, 13  Even just half a degree C elevation of average annual temperature matters in ways that are not intuitive.14, 15

Meanwhile, the destabilization of our earth systems and consequent erosion of security are happening at the same time that representative democracy is falling ill.16  Here in the twilight of the post-WW2 world order, fear and nationalism are driving both a trend toward autocracy 17, 18 and a stunning failure of national level governments to step up to the global challenge of climate change.19, 20  Too many elected officials and their appointees are averse to acknowledging the connections between their policies and phenomena like global warming, increasing vulnerability of populations to natural disasters, increasing food and water insecurity, economic inequality, and mass migrations.  Instead of engaging in multi-lateral solutions to these global scale challenges, governments are becoming more likely to embrace reactionary unilateral responses to symptoms of system failure.19, 21  One way this is manifested around the world is in the efforts to erect more barriers in the path of those fleeing insecurity while simultaneously dehumanizing these victims of resource scarcity and poor governance.22  As governments turn away from inclusivity, pluralism, and the counsel of scientists in favor of protecting the interests of an elite or favored subpopulation, they become increasingly corrupt and hostile to environmental and social justice advocacy.21, 23, 24, 25  The moral arc of our national government-controlled universe is currently not bending toward justice. 

While the ascendance of populism/nationalism/authoritarianism and polarization constitute a growing threat to our ability to deal with climate change and foster greater sustainability, an even more widespread and pernicious barrier is the fixation of governments on pursuing economic growth at any cost.26  This prioritization by governments has been nurtured by the increasing influence of big business in politics, short-term thinking, and a disaffected citizenry.  In this laissez faire, neoliberal system, politicians are disincentivized from addressing the root causes of our environmental and social ills.  Rather, consumerism is encouraged, as is the offloading of the costs (aka negative externalities) of most everything we do to the environment, marginalized populations, and other species.27, 2  If you think this paragraph is hyperbolic, simply review a running list of the environmentally-oriented federal policy changes in the United States since 2017.28, 29 

Governments are doubling down on an economic paradigm that is not only destructive but is inherently unsustainable given its dependence on perpetual growth on a finite planet.30  The unsustainability is made far more acute by the explosion of debt accruing to individuals, governments, and corporations. The rationality of this system of financing consumption and investment to accelerate all forms of supply and demand is “predicated on the illusion that it will always be possible to make future payments owing to yet more exploitation down the road.”31  A majority of the articles accessible via this bibliography argue that this premise -where natural resource limits and ecosystem service constraints don’t apply to us - is not supported.9, 32, 33, 34 

So here we are in an increasingly overextended global bubble economy that will either be gradually deflated in a regulated way or will pop in a catastrophic way when our complex and un-resilient systems can no longer be supported and/or too many debtors have to default on their loans.35  Consider the vulnerability of our aging electrical power grid, which is ill equipped to cope with either climate change (as was demonstrated in California 2019) or to the wholesale switch to less dependable and power dense renewable energy sources.36  Consider also the ramifications of the coming devaluation of coastal properties, which are destined to become uninsurable as sea level rises.37   

The “gradually deflated in a regulated way” approach to bringing our economy back within the constraints of reality could only come about via a sea change in governmental priorities prompted by a more aware, active, and change-tolerant citizenry. To that end there is indeed a growing wave of advocates38, 39 who recognize how the need to mitigate climate change also presents us with the opportunity to reset some dysfunctional cultural norms, reverse all sorts of social and environmental ills,40 and adopt new socio-economic/political models that are designed to foster well-being above all else.41, 42  This is the thinking that animates plans like the Green New Deal43 and many others to be found via section XI of this bibliography.  There is considerable hope to be gleaned from these various positive visions of the future and in the political awakening of the millennial generation.

However, let’s be real.  Any efforts made to foster degrowth and decarbonization, which seem to be required to keep us from blowing well past the +2°C warming threshold and the horrific impacts that will bring,4, 8  will be met with fierce resistance. Economic threats and rising insecurity tend to foster a more conservative mindset and repressive governance in order to preserve the status quo.44, 45, 46   This is increasingly manifesting as outright murder of environmental activists and journalists.24, 25

Even in a best case scenario (with regard to mitigating climate change) where that resistance to progressive planning is defused in some democratic way and the burning of fossil fuels ceases in the next 30 years, switching to renewable energy technologies will come with its own damaging costs47, 48 and we will still be delivering a staggering blow to the economy as we know it.49, 50, 51  The devaluation of that energy resource, the stranding of trillions of dollars of assets, and the consequent hit to everything currently dependent on fossil fuels could well trigger a financial collapse dwarfing the severity of the 2009 recession,52 potentially bringing the era of globalized trade to a screeching halt.53  Consider the collapse of Venezuela as a cautionary example of the vulnerability of an economy to the devaluation of oil and short-sighted governance.54  But that hit to the fossil fuel dependent, debt-happy, growth-mad economy is coming, sooner or later, be it in a managed or not managed way.  It is the old ‘you can pay me now or you can pay me later’ conundrum and later looks like the worse choice.  In any event, we are going to have to be midwives to a civilization that runs on far less energy consumption than we all assume is our birthright. 49

Clearly, given this web site and what I have written above, I think the grimmer projections for our future that are accessible throughout this bibliography are at least worth our careful consideration. The potential for some form of societal collapse is plausible and the darker forms55 are very much worth warding off starting yesterday. 

Section VI of this bibliography collects the various articles I have read that synthesize our existential threats and assess the potential for societal collapse.  Arguably the most impactful of these articles thus far has been Jem Bendell’s paper titled Deep Adaptation: Navigating Climate Tragedy.  It has been getting passed around, very much on the down low, among academics and others for the past 2 years, usually accompanied with some cautious, non-committal version of “Um, what do you think about this?”  It prompted me to go into reading overdrive to assess the justifications for his conclusions.  Bottom line, they are difficult to refute even though I well remember the great Y2K scare of 1999 and have spent much of my life dismissing gloomy predictions of economic collapse from my stepfather.  Instead, the trends apparent in sections I and II, our cultural pathologies discussed from many angles in the articles of section III, and the assessments of so many other seemingly rational, intelligent authors to be found via section VI tend to support Bendell’s conclusions.  That is scary indeed, especially since there are no easy choices or fixes ahead.

But…

As I refuse to dwell in a fatalistic mind space, this bibliography doesn’t end with section VII – Activism, Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of Confronting the “Traumacene.  Section VIII leads to many articles and reports on efforts to reduce environmental impact and population vulnerability via mitigation and adaptation efforts.  Never forget that there are many people and organizations committed to reigning in the excesses of our human enterprise and reversing negative trends (also see section XII).  Meanwhile, we can do even better than that to foster a civilization that is more ecocentric and geared toward promoting biodiversity, environmental integrity, human well-being, and justice.  This is the work of sustainability and sections IX, X and XII provide links to articles and manifestos that will help anyone figure out the principles behind that term and what sustainability advocates are recommending.

Unfortunately, waving the banner of sustainability doesn’t automatically lead to problem solved.  The term and movement are contentious given how there is a wide spectrum of political ideologies and recommendations for what must change that can fit under the capacious umbrella of sustainability.56  When we use that loaded code word which of the following are we talking about?

·         Piecemeal mitigation and adaptation efforts meant to enhance resilience so a region, population, sector, what have you, can take a shock and bounce back to its pre-calamity trajectory of economic development?

·         The sustainable development paradigm featuring top down, incremental policy change, multilateralism, and modest wealth redistribution within the capitalist framework for the largely anthropocentric goals of improved human equity, opportunity, and health?

·         The green techno-optimism and geoengineering schemes (see section VIIIE) championed by groups such as the Breakthrough Institute?57

·         Natural capitalism and Project Drawdown?58, 59

·         Strict adherence to the Natural Step conditions?60

·         Worldwide acceptance of guiding principles like those in the Earth Charter?61

·         Wholesale alteration of energy, food, and economic systems including the immediate abandonment of fossil fuels (decarbonization), retreat from the industrialized agriculture model, and promotion of de-growth62 leading to a steady state economic model?63

·         Reversing globalization and the flood of humanity to cities to embrace the decentralized, largely self-sufficient eco-localism model?64, 65, 66

·         Cultural transformation emphasizing a worldwide shift toward egalitarianism, communalism, and ecocentrism?67

·         A more inclusive, pluralistic process of planning and decision-making that relies on much greater civic engagement at the community level?

Sustainability will always have many facets,68 but can we collectively identify some definition,69 model,70, 71 narrative,56 and/or manifesto72 of sustainability to support? 

It is easiest, of course, if we don't even try to reach some sort of agreement over such contestable terrain.  Negotiating terms that hinge on a person's values, group identity, and perceptions of risk is fraught at best.73, 74  Meanwhile, there is a lot of appeal to the pluralistic approach of leaving the interpretation and application of sustainability open, allowing every community/region/culture to find their own way.73, 75   But that assumes we have the luxury of time to experiment with the world and our culture in a slow, clumsy and uncoordinated fashion. The scientific literature of the past few decades argues that we do not have that time. 

So we really, really need to get serious about our challenges and options and make some difficult choices that thread the needle between our material needs and our need to live ethical and healthy lives that don’t come at the cost of other species, marginalized populations, and future generations.76, 77 We need clarity, a sense of responsibility, and urgency.  This bibliography of resources is here to give you access to the best data and all sorts of critical thinking to help you decide what to believe in and what to support. 

Ultimately, however, what is more important is starting tough conversations with the people you love, your colleagues, and your neighbors.  Everybody needs to be engaged in the negotiation of our future.  Collectively, we need to construct a new and improved story for the human enterprise that can serve as a hopeful guide and will soften the inevitable blows to come.78, 30, 79, 80, 81

References Cited

1.    Ripple, W, Wolf, C, Galetti, M, Newsome, T, Alamgir, M, Crist, E, Mahmoud, M, Laurance, W (2017). World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice. Bioscience, 67(12). https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/67/12/1026/4605229

2.    Klein, N (2016). Let Them Drown. London Review of Books, 38(11). http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n11/naomi-klein/let-them-drown

3.    International Panel on Climate Change (2018). Global Warming of 1.5° C: Summary for Policy Makers. https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf

4.    Rockstrom, J, Schellnhuber, H, Hoskin B, Ramanathan, V, Schlosser, P, Brasseur, G, Gaffney, O, Nobre, C, Meinshausen, M, Rogelj, J, and Lucht, W (2016). The World's Biggest Gamble. Earth’s Future, 4(10). https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000392

5.    Mora, C et al., (2018). Broad Threat to Humanity from Cumulative Climate Hazards Intensified by Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Nature Climate Change, 8: 1062–1071. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0315-6

6.    Barnosky, A, Ehrlich, P and Hadly, E (2016). Avoiding Collapse: Grand Challenges for Science and Society to Solve by 2050. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 4. https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.12952/journal.elementa.000094/

7.    Ripple, W, Wolf, C, Newson, T, Barnard, P and Moomaw, W (2019). World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency. BioScience Magazine, biz088. https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806

8.    Pierrehumbert, R (2019). There is No Plan B for Dealing with the Climate Crisis. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 75(5). https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654255

9.    Steffen, W, et al., (2015). Planetary Boundaries: Guiding Human Development on a Changing Planet. Science, 347(6223). http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855

10. Steffen, W and 15 co-authors (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(33): 8252-8259. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252

11. Mbow, C et al., (2019). Chapter 5: Food Security, in Climate Change and Land. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/2f.-Chapter-5_FINAL.pdf

12. Turner, R (2019). Climate Change Impact Observations and Projections: Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Supply, in Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability. University of Washington Bothell. http://faculty.washington.edu/rturner1/Sustainability/Bibliography/Section1.htm#A

13. Turner, R (2019). Other Existential Threats: Agriculture, Soil Degradation, and Food, in Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability. University of Washington Bothell. http://faculty.washington.edu/rturner1/Sustainability/Bibliography/Section2.htm#A2

14. Levin, K (2018). Half a Degree and a World Apart: The Difference in Climate Impacts Between 1.5˚C and 2˚C of Warming. World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/half-degree-and-world-apart-difference-climate-impacts-between-15-c-and-2-c-warming

15. Wang, Y et al., (2019). Tens of Thousands Additional Deaths Annually in Cities of China Between 1.5°C and 2.0°C Warming. Nature Communications, 10. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11283-w

16. Turner, R (2020). Democracy in Decline (and What to Do About It), in Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability. University of Washington Bothell. http://faculty.washington.edu/rturner1/Sustainability/Bibliography/Section3.htm#E 

17. Repucci, S (2020). Freedom in the World 2020: A Leaderless Struggle for Democracy. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2020/leaderless-struggle-democracy    

18. Lans, A and Lindberg, S (2019). A Third Wave of Autocratization is Here: What is New About It? Journal of Democratization, 26. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029

19. Martine, G and Diniz Alves, J (2019). Disarray in Global Governance and Climate Change Chaos.  Revista Brasileira De Estudos De Populaçăo, 36. https://www.rebep.org.br/revista/article/view/1317/1001

20. Watson, R, McCarthy, J, Canziani, P, Nakicenovic, N and Hisas, L (2019). The Truth Behind the Climate Pledges. Fundación Ecológica Universal - US. https://feu-us.org/behind-the-climate-pledges/ 

21. Fabiani, L (2019). What if Climate Change and Rising Nationalism Both Had the Same Solution?  Pacific Standard, June 3. https://psmag.com/ideas/what-if-climate-change-and-rising-nationalism-both-had-the-same-solution

22.  Miller, T (2017). The Era of Walls: Greeting Climate-Change Victims with a Man-Made Dystopia. TomDispatch, The Nation Institute. https://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176360/tomgram%3A_todd_miller%2C_the_market_in_walls_is_growing_in_a_warming_world

23.  Inglehart, R and Norris, P (2016). Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-nots and Cultural Backlash. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series No. RWP16-026. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/trump-brexit-and-rise-populism-economic-have-nots-and-cultural-backlash 

24.  Schwartzstein, P (2019). The Middle East’s Authoritarians Have Come for Conservationists. The Atlantic, March 30. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/03/middle-east-north-africa-environmentalism-espionage/585973/

25.  Watts, J (2019). Environmental Activist Murders Double in 15 years. The Guardian, Aug. 5. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/05/environmental-activist-murders-double

26.  Holtz-Eakin, D (2014). The Growth Imperative. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. https://www.uschamberfoundation.org/sites/default/files/The%20Growth%20Imperative.pdf

27.  Assadourian, E (2010). The Rise and Fall of Consumer Cultures, in 2010 State of the World – Transforming Cultures from Consumerism to Sustainability. Worldwatch Institute. Pp: 3-15. http://blogs.worldwatch.org/transformingcultures/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/Chapter-1.pdf

28.  Popovich, N, Albeck-Ripka, L and Pierre-Louis, K (2020). The Trump Administration Is Reversing Nearly 100 Environmental Rules. Here’s the Full List. New York Times, May 6. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks.html

29.  Environmental & Energy Law Program (2020). Regulatory Rollback Tracker. Harvard Law School. https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/regulatory-rollback-tracker/ 

30.  Fullerton, J (2015). Regenerative Capitalism: How Universal Principles and Patterns Will Shape Our New Economy. Capital Institute. https://capitalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-Regenerative-Capitalism-4-20-15-final.pdf

31.  Barash, D (2009). We Are All Madoffs: Our Relationship to the Natural World is a Ponzi Scheme. The Chronicle of Higher Education, Aug. 31. https://www.chronicle.com/article/We-Are-All-Madoffs/48182

32.  Reid, W, et al., (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, in Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Pp. v-24. http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/8701/Ecosystem_and_human_well_being_synthesis.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

33.    Chaplin-Kramer, R et al., (2019). Global Modeling of Nature’s Contributions to People. Science, 366(6462). https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6462/255

34.    Heinberg, R (2018). Ted Nordhaus Is Wrong: We Are Exceeding Earth’s Carrying Capacity. UnDark, July 26. https://undark.org/article/ted-nordhaus-carrying-capacity-ecology/

35.    Elliot, L (2019). G20 Must Heed Global Debt Warnings to Stave Off Another Crisis. The Guardian, April 28. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/28/g20-must-heed-global-debt-warnings-to-stave-off-another-crisis

36.    Brosig, M, Frawley, P, Hill, A, Jahn, M,Mrsicek, M, Paris, A, Rose, M, Shambaljamts, A and Thomas, N (2019). Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army. U.S. Army War College. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf

37.    Dembicki, G (2019). A 'Big Short' Investor's New Bet: Climate Change Will Bust the Housing Market. Vice, Nov. 1. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wjwyy9/a-big-short-investors-new-bet-climate-change-will-bust-the-housing-market

38.    Nilsen, E (2019). The New Face of Climate Activism is Young, Angry — and Effective. Vox, Sept. 17. https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/9/10/20847401/sunrise-movement-climate-change-activist-millennials-global-warming

39.    Wallace-Wells, D (2019d). Naomi Klein: ‘Our Future Is Radical. The Present Is Pretty Radical Too.’ New York Magazine Intelligencer, Sept. 18. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/naomi-klein-on-reckoning-with-the-reality-of-climate-change.html

40.    Speth, JG (2012). America the Possible: A Manifesto, Part 1. Orion Magazine, March/April. http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/6681/

41.    Klein, N (2019). Forged in Fire: California’s Lessons for a Green New Deal. The Intercept, Nov. 7. https://theintercept.com/2019/11/07/california-wildfires-green-new-deal/

42.    Speth, G (2017). The Joyful Economy. The Next System Project. https://thenextsystem.org/the-joyful-economy

43.    Carlock, G and Mangan, E (2018).  A Green New Deal: A Progressive Vision for Environmental Sustainability and Economic Stability. Data for Progress. https://www.dataforprogress.org/green-new-deal/

44.    Hibbing, JR, Smith, KB, and Alford, JR (2014).  Differences in Negativity Bias Underlie Variations in Political Ideology.  Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 37: 297-350. http://www.psych.nyu.edu/vanbavel/lab/documents/Jost.etal.2014.BBS.pdf

45.    Gadarian, S (2010). The Politics of Threat: How Terrorism News Shapes Foreign Policy Attitudes. The Journal of Politics, 72(2). https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1017/s0022381609990910?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

46.    Jackson, J and Gelfand, M (2019). Could Climate Change Fuel the Rise of Right-wing Nationalism? The Conversation, Sept. 25. http://theconversation.com/could-climate-change-fuel-the-rise-of-right-wing-nationalism-123503

47.    Katwala, A (2018). The Spiralling Environmental Cost of Our Lithium Battery Addiction. Wired, Aug. 5. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact

48.    Hickel, J (2019). The Limits of Clean Energy. Foreign Policy, Sept. 6. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/06/the-path-to-clean-energy-will-be-very-dirty-climate-change-renewables/

49.    Heinberg, R and Fridley, D (2016). Our Renewable Future. Post Carbon Institute. https://ourrenewablefuture.org/introduction/

50.    Kovacs, W (2019). A Cautionary Tale of Climate Change. The Hill, Sept. 16. https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/461633-a-cautionary-tale-of-climate-change

51.    Fullerton, J (2011). The Big Choice. Capital Institute, The Future of Finance Blog, July 19. https://capitalinstitute.org/blog/big-choice-0/

52.    Tverberg, G (2012). Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Energy, 37(1). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211003744

53.    Curtis, F (2009). Peak Globalization: Climate Change, Oil Depletion and Global Trade. Ecological Economics, 69(2): 427-434. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800909003334

54.    Kurmanaev, A (2019). Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say. New York Times, May 17. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/world/americas/venezuela-economy.html 

55.    Collins, C (2018). Meet Catabolic Capitalism: Globalization’s Gruesome Twin. Uneven Earth, Nov. 1. http://unevenearth.org/2018/11/meet-catabolic-capitalism-globalizations-gruesome-twin/

56.    Luederitz, C, Abson, D, Audet, R and Lang, D (2017). Many Pathways Toward Sustainability: Not Conflict but Co-learning Between Transition Narratives. Sustainability Science, 12(3). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11625-016-0414-0

57.    The Breakthrough Institute (2019). https://thebreakthrough.org/

58.    Lovins, A, Lovins LH and Hawken, P (2007). A Road Map for Natural Capitalism. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2007/07/a-road-map-for-natural-capitalism

59.    Project Drawdown (2019). https://www.drawdown.org/

60.    The Natural Step.Org (2016). The Four System Conditions of a Sustainable Society. http://www.naturalstep.ca/four-system-conditions

61.    Earth Charter Commission (2000).  The Earth Charter.  Earth Charter International Secretariat.  http://www.earthcharterinaction.org/content/pages/Read-the-Charter.html 

62.    DeMaria, F, Schneider, F, Sekulova, F amd Martinez-Alier, J (2013). What is Degrowth? From an Activist Slogan to a Social Movement. Environmental Values, 22. https://www.degrowth.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/What_is_Degrowth_FDemaria-2013_Env_Values-libre.pdf

63.    Daly, H (2008). A Steady-State Economy. Sustainable Development Commission, UK. http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php@id=775.html

64.    Shuman, M (2017). The Promise of a Million Utopias. The Next System Project. https://thenextsystem.org/promise-million-utopias

65.    Curtis, F (2002). Eco-localism and Sustainability. Ecological Economics, 46(1): 83-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00102-2

66.    Bradford, J (2019). The Future is Rural: Food System Adaptations to the Great Simplification. Post Carbon Institute. https://www.postcarbon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-Future-Is-Rural-2019.pdf

67.    Washington, H, Taylor, B, Kopnina, H, Cryer, P and Piccolo, J (2017). Ecocentrism is the Key Pathway to Sustainability. Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, Stanford University. https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MAHBBlog_Ecocentrism_WashingtonHEtAl_Jul2017.pdf

68.    Wals A and Jickling, B (2002). "Sustainability" in Higher Education: From Doublethink and Newspeak to Critical Thinking and Meaningful Learning. Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 3(3). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095287330200003X

69.    Turner, R (2017). Evaluate Definitions of Sustainability and Sustainable Development, in Turner, R, Sinton, C, Davi, N and Plake, T, Water, Agriculture and Sustainability Teaching Module, InTeGrate.

70.    Turner, R (2011). Graphical Models of Sustainability and Sustainable Development. University of Washington Bothell. http://faculty.washington.edu/rturner1/Sustainability/Big_Ideas13.htm

71.    Raworth, K (2012). A Safe and Just Space for Humanity. Oxfam Discussion Papers, Oxfam International. https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/210490/dp-a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-130212-en.pdf;jsessionid=BB6E919DDD19C529CA32BA5DF409E7CD?sequence=13

72.    Turner, R (2019). Sustainability Manifestos, in Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability. University of Washington Bothell. http://faculty.washington.edu/rturner1/Sustainability/Bibliography/Section10.htm

73.    Thompson, M (2000). Understanding Environmental Values: A Cultural Theory Approach. Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs. https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/articles_papers_reports/710

74.    Kahan, D (2013). What are Fearless Hierarchical Individualists Afraid Of? Lots of Stuff! The Cultural Cognition Project. http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2013/6/10/what-are-fearless-white-hierarchical-individualist-males-afr.html

75.    Rosenthal, J (2011).  In Search of a Global Ethic.  Bard College Globalization and International Affairs Program (BGIA), Tenth Anniversary Lecture Series.  http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/transcripts/0425.html

76.    Hickel, J (2018). Is It Possible to Achieve a Good Life for All Within Planetary Boundaries? Third World Quarterly, 40. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1535895

77.    O’Neill, D, Fanning, A, Lamb, W and Steinberger, J (2018). A Good Life for All Within Planetary Boundaries. Nature Sustainability, 1. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0021-4

78.    Mondbiot, G (2019). The New Political Story that Could Change Everything. TEDSummit 2019. https://www.ted.com/talks/george_monbiot_the_new_political_story_that_could_change_everything?language=en 

79.    Speth, J (2010). A New American Environmentalism and the New Economy. The 10th Annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture, National Council for Science and the Environment. https://capitalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/A_New_American_Environmentalism_and_the_New_Economy_final1.pdf

80.    Levitas, R (2017). Where There is No Vision, the People Perish: A Utopian Ethic for a Transformed Future. CUSP essay series on the Ethics of Sustainable Prosperity, No 5. CUSP, June 27. https://www.cusp.ac.uk/themes/m/m1-5/#1475182667098-0328ae0f-4bcbf2c7-159e13d8-96cc

81.    New Story Hub (2019). http://newstoryhub.com/about/

 

Rob Turner, October 11, 2019

Last edited June 9, 2020

Hope is not prognostication.  It is an orientation of the spirit, an orientation of the heart; it transcends the world that is immediately experienced, and is anchored somewhere beyond its horizons…

Hope, in this deep and powerful sense, is not the same as joy that things are going well… but, rather, an ability to work for something because it is good.

- Vaclav Havel

 

Some Caveats About this Resource

There are all sorts of limitations to this bibliography.  This is where I will acknowledge them.

First of all, this bibliography cannot be considered complete or exhaustive.  The boundaries for literature that could be considered “relevant to our future sustainability” are nebulous and arbitrary. There is a tsunami of new relevant articles, essays, web pages, videos, and reports released every day.  What we have here is a subset of what has washed up to (and over) me during the past several years. 

Like any collection, it reflects the limitations, values, and filters of the collector.  This is evident not only in the cited resources and what isn’t here, but also in how they are categorized.  For example, sections 1, 2, 5 and 7 reveal my natural science background (and bias, some would say). These sections are dominated by “primary literature,” i.e., peer review scientific journal articles.  I am not embarrassed to say that I give articles that have gone through this vetting process more weight than others.

Of course, there are other sites that provide links to far more (or different) articles and books than I have included in this bibliography.  Here are some examples:

·         The Climate Web - https://www.theclimateweb.com/#tve-jump-16c9788294c

·         Barry Smiler’s Climate Site - https://barrysmiler.com/index.php

·         The Database of Environmental Change - https://www.open-intelligence.co.uk/index.php?sch=1000&scroll=0&page=1&cal=1&t=7

·         JSTOR Digital Library: Sustainability - https://www.jstor.org/sustainability/

·         Planetary Health Alliance Bibliography - https://planetaryhealthalliance.org/bibliography

·         Resources for the Future: Topics - https://www.rff.org/topics/

·         Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange - https://www.cakex.org/

·         Adaptation Clearinghouse - https://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/

·         Systems Change – https://www.systems-change.net/

There are also many databases you can access via a library.  Here is a link to databases via the UW Bothell library system - https://guides.lib.uw.edu/az.php.  By all means use them!  But most people don’t.  Consequently, I am offering up the articles and other resources that have struck me.

Meanwhile, those swell search engines tend to divvy up the world of literature by disciplinary field, but the topic of interest here is supremely interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary.  Who has the time to work through each disciplinary database to ensure that they’ve found everything of relevance to their transdisciplinary question?

In addition, most of the databases don’t do so well in providing worthwhile relevant resources published in ways other than journals.  You should know that I do not believe that all worthwhile insights into our challenges, prospects, and opportunities are limited to peer review journal articles.  Gasp!  Thus, you will find mixed into each of these bibliography sections a wide variety of reference sources, including blog posts, newspaper articles, NGO websites, government reports, etc… There may be references here from sources you don’t trust.  It is up to you to critically evaluate what you read, though I would like to think that I have filtered out the sketchy, poorly reasoned, or egregiously biased articles for you.

You will also notice that the references tend to skew to the recent.  Most everything here was published after 2005, with a particular emphasis on articles and reports published in the past two years. This, in part, reflects how I have gone into reading overdrive this past year in my quixotic desire to generate a reasonably thorough bibliography.  This is not to say there is no value in literature published prior to 2005, but understanding marches on and methods, societies, forcing drivers, etc., change, often making older literature dated.  You can find your way to the key/foundational older literature via the reference lists of the articles you access via this bibliography. 

More on what isn’t here…  There aren’t sections of the bibliography covering the fundamentals of climate science or ecology, though some links to credible sources are provided.  I feel these critically important fields of knowledge are simply outside the scope of this bibliography.    

All of this reading has been enormously enlightening, though I have much work ahead to truly absorb, synthesize, and critically reflect on what I have encountered.  That is a task that will never come to some neat conclusion.  In the meantime, I see no reason to keep others from easily engaging in this same work by accessing these same resources.  Don’t wait for me to produce a series of brilliant and irrefutable publications. 

 

Here is another admission to share – I am not pretending to have read all of these bibliography resources from stem to stern.  I have thoroughly read many of them, and had my students do the same with a smaller segment, but I have also just skimmed abstracts and other interesting bits of the rest.   

 

This leads to another important point – the inclusion of any resource in this bibliography does not mean that I agree with all of the findings of the author(s). This is literature of relevance to our future sustainability, not literature that Rob Turner thinks has a lock on what is true and right.  There is a reason why the home page for this bibliography starts with the following quote:

The only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion and studying all the modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this.” --- John Stuart Mill

That said, this bibliography does not actually include opinions on our future sustainability by every character of mind. For example, there is little here from anarchists.  The thinking and products of artists are not well represented either (although here’s a poem I’ve included among the critiques in section III).  I do admit to some filters that limit this bibliography, but in these particular cases it is mostly just a lack of time to explore those perspectives.  The manifestation of my filters is more apparent in the lack of articles from climate change skeptics or those providing a full-throated defense of the status quo or of neoliberal economic policy.  So you won’t find articles from, say, the Heritage Foundation or the Competitive Enterprise Institute.  There may not be much agreement about what future sustainability should look like or the best ways to get there, but the entire sustainability movement is predicated on the assessment that our dominant sets of political and economic systems are in need of a significant makeover for the sake of greater equity, security, climate stability, and ecological integrity.  If you aren’t open to considering the potential validity of some or all of that assessment, then this isn’t the bibliography for you.

The emphasis of the articles included here is on our perceived problems, how they threaten biodiversity and our collective prosperity, and alternative ways of being and managing the human enterprise to ensure a brighter future for all.  If you want to selectively focus on the positive trends that our socio-economic trajectory has delivered thus far you can watch a Steven Pinker lecture, but this bibliography covers the issues that Pinker and, by and large, the powers that be ignore (or actively make worse).  Meanwhile, section XII is entirely devoted to groups doing good work, success stories, and sources of hope.

In the end, this is just a bibliography, not a manifesto. My goal is not to indoctrinate.  Read through a variety of articles of your choosing and come to your own conclusions.  This is the heart of learning and we can always use more of that.

 

Zappa

 

 

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Last updated – June 9, 2020