Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability

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VI.     Synthesis of Existential Risks and the Potential for Societal Collapse

Bounce me down to the bibliography citations

What’s Here

This bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t.  In this section, the referenced articles look at the big picture, synthesizing the various problems and trends and projecting our near future likely outcomes.  If you want to get maximally freaked out, this is your go-to section of the bibliography.

Many citations here are of articles from journals that are listed in italics, meaning they have gone through a peer review process.  There are also links to books, essays from blogs, news magazine analyses and op eds, a few videos, and some reports sponsored by government agencies and NGOs.  These are analyses of what the future holds, but few are modeling or statistics heavy studies.  Instead, these are articles where authors are sharing their evaluation based on a synthesis of many studies and their gut feelings about our state of affairs and what they portend.  This section is speculative.

There are > 200 articles in this section written by even more authors.  What is striking is the similarity of the take home messages in the lot, regardless of publication venue or author background. There is a growing, dark consensus here in the second decade of the 21st century. An ever-increasing segment of the climate scientists, environmental scientists, social scientists, science beat journalists, etc. have looked squarely upon what we have wrought here in the Anthropocene, in large part via their own review of the literature represented in the first 4 sections of this bibliography, and have concluded that our growth-at-all-costs capitalistic society will not be sustained.  It should be concerning that so many people, with their reputations on the line, are writing about the likelihood of societal collapse in this century.

But hey, maybe these authors have it all wrong.  Theirs is still, seemingly, a minority view.  Maybe they are wrong because their views reflect a vast conspiracy in the scientific community to usher in a leftist autocracy, as some on the right would have you believe.  Maybe they are wrong because they foolishly have insufficient faith in the clever power of free markets, laissez faire politics, plutocracy, and technological innovation to overcome any resource limits, climate instability, or massive population shifts.  Maybe they are wrong because climate change and the elimination of the planet’s diversity just isn’t a concern.

The previous paragraph is more than a little facetious. I dismiss these arguments as the products of motivated reasoning.1, 2, 3  Section III of this bibliography contains links to many articles that dismantle these arguments in a variety of ways, including the simple application of facts. But it is certainly fair to question just how justified are the gloomier prognostications of the articles cited below. After all, every generation has its doomsayers and yet we have been experiencing more or less continual economic growth, technological development, and intertwining globalization for centuries. 

It is also fair to wonder about the degree to which the authors represented in this section may be biased by their own motivated reasoning as well. What might motivate a rational person to conclude that society as we know it is destined to collapse, aside from troubling data and trends?  Why is there an apparent surge in apocalyptic thinking among people concerned with the environment and social justice?4, 5, 6  To some extent, this could come from an epidemic of despair over the failure of attempts to significantly reform our socio-economic system.7, 8  Or perhaps characterizing our challenge as potentially apocalyptic enables activists to better sell the urgency of their cause and position themselves as the heroic protagonist.9, 10

There is also an apparent romantic (or perhaps just exhausted) yearning within the environmental community for a more decentralized, pastoral, and communal lifestyle, which may well end up being the best-case scenario for fortunate regions on the other side of significant economic and political collapse. There are many advocates of eco-communalism as the way forward within the sustainability community.5, 11 

There may also be something more subconscious influencing some doomsayers.  If you reach the conclusion that we are embedded in a system that is horrifically damaging, unjust, beyond democratic control, and inherently pathological, you just might find some hidden comfort in a narrative where it is destined to fall in relatively short order. In this narrative, you no longer have any responsibility to do anything to fix a doomed and irredeemable system. It’s going to happen and you can bide your time while continuing to participate in a system you can simultaneously disavow.12  This is essentially the fatalistic take of Jonathan Franzen in his 9/8/19 essay in The New Yorker magazine that received so much pushback during the week I wrote this preface.13  

None of this is to say, however, that the assessments projecting possible societal collapse within this century are easily dismissed, regardless of any motivated reasoning that may lurk in the hearts of the authors. Sometimes the data does support a conclusion that echoes your preconceptions.  Civilizations do collapse and there is little reason to think that ours is immune to the stresses that have taken out so many previous grand societies. Meanwhile, we are facing an additional, unique set of serious challenges on a horrifying time table as detailed in sections I, II, III and IV.  Collapsed is not an inappropriate description right now for the status of countries like Yemen and Venezuela and it certainly seems like the world is becoming more unstable.14, 15, 16 Ultimately, however, it is up to you – the judicious reader – to decide whether the conclusions of the articles in this section are justified or not. 

Many people have been performing this exact evaluation and section VII of this bibliography (Activisim, Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of Confronting the “Traumacene”) shares articles relating the impacts this process is having on those who feel that our future prospects are grim indeed. As is apparent via the articles of section VII, there is a groundswell of environmental anxiety, grief, and alarm to the extent that children are protesting in the streets,17, 18 women are swearing off having children,19, 20 the trending climate activism group is called Extinction Rebellion, and the psychiatric community is grappling with a whole new kind of PTSD. 21, 22 

If you are looking for some solace, you can see how the collapse outcome isn’t explicitly included in most of the scenario analyses of the articles shared in section V, though it is a potential trajectory in the Great Transitions analysis. Also, section XII (Hopeful Resources – On Hope, Activism, and Examples of Positive Change) contains many resources meant to alleviate the despair and paralysis from feeling that a dystopian future is in the cards.  For example, there are links in that section to many groups one could support in their fight against a darker future, along with tales of success and the power of hope.  In that vein, section VIII (Conservation, Restoration, Mitigation,  Adaptation ŕ Resilience) shares articles on many varied efforts, both occurring and proposed, to foster resilience and thus shore up society in some recognizable form.  Section XI (Sustainability Manifestos), on the other hand, provides links to numerous proposals for more transformative, just, and sustainable reformations of culture and socio-economics that we can implement to either avoid outright collapse or use as guides in the aftermath of non-apocalyptic forms of collapse.  And yes, there are movements afoot to prepare for and soften any imminent collapse.23, 24, 25, 26

I have written all of the above to prepare you - to inoculate you - prior to reading the articles cited below.  They aren’t likely to sit well unless you are craving some confirmation of your own preconceived dystopian fears.  Professors and teachers of all levels may want to start with Jem Bendell’s landmark paper as he is writing specifically to his fellow academics and he has followed it up by establishing a community (grown to >10,000 participants in just 6 months) to discuss how best to adapt to collapse.27, 28

 

If reading these articles are making you despair, take a break and deflect with a laugh. Still too dark? Ok, try this one. Not making you feel better? Go full absurd here.

Citations

       

?? (2021). Collapse. Annuel.net. https://www.annuel.nl/collapse/ [Links to many books of relevance to Collapse, nicely categorized.]

 

Ahmed, N (2014). Nasa-funded Study: Industrial Civilisation Headed for 'Irreversible Collapse'? The Guardian, March 14. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

 

Ahmed, N (2017). Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence. Springer International Pub. https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319478142 or https://www.worldcat.org/title/failing-states-collapsing-systems-biophysical-triggers-of-political-violence/oclc/1120608422?referer=br&ht=edition

 

Ahmed, N (2019a). Scientists Warn the UN of Capitalism’s Imminent Demise. Resilience.org, May 2. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-05-02/scientists-warn-the-un-of-capitalisms-imminent-demise/

 

Ahmed, N (2019b). U.S. Military Could Collapse Within 20 Years Due to Climate Change, Report Commissioned By Pentagon Says. Vice, Oct. 24. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/mbmkz8/us-military-could-collapse-within-20-years-due-to-climate-change-report-commissioned-by-pentagon-says

 

Ahmed, N (2019c). The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already Begun. Vice, Nov. 22. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8xwygg/the-collapse-of-civilization-may-have-already-begun

 

Ahmed, N (2020a). West’s ‘Dust Bowl’ Future now ‘Locked In’, as World Risks Imminent Food Crisis. Resilience, Jan. 6. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-01-06/wests-dust-bowl-future-now-locked-in-as-world-risks-imminent-food-crisis/

 

Ahmed, N (2020b). Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades. Vice, July 28. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/akzn5a/theoretical-physicists-say-90-chance-of-societal-collapse-within-several-decades

 

Ahmed, N and Miller, A (2020). Our Naked Emperors Catch Coronavirus: Nafeez Ahmed on Global System Breakdown. Crazy Town podcast, April. Post Carbon Institute. https://www.buzzsprout.com/244372/3169123-our-naked-emperors-catch-coronavirus-nafeez-ahmed-on-global-system-breakdown

 

Alexander, S (2015). Voluntary Simplification as an Alternative to Collapse, in Prosperous Descent. Simplicity Institute Publishing. http://samuelalexander.info/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Voluntary-Simplification-as-an-Alternative-to-Collapse-Samuel-Alexander-1.pdf

 

American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014). What We Know: The Realities, Risks and Response to Climate Change. http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf

 

Andersen, R (2012). We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction. The Atlantic, March 6. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/

 

Assadourian, E (2020a). Living with Collapse. Medium, Oct. 29. https://medium.com/@erikassadourian/living-with-collapse-df9289afd637

 

Assadourian, E (2020b). America’s Democracy in an Era of Collapse. Medium, Nov. 10. https://medium.com/@erikassadourian/americas-democracy-in-an-era-of-collapse-f6594211b825

 

Bardi, U, Falsini, S and Perissi, I (2019). Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse: A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model of the Diminishing Returns of Complexity. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-018-0049-0

 

Barnosky, A and 16 co-authors (2014). Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: Information for Policy Makers. Stanford University. https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/see-scientific-consensus/consensus_english.pdf  

 

Barnosky, A, Ehrlich, P and Hadly, E (2016). Avoiding Collapse: Grand Challenges for Science and Society to Solve by 2050. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 4. https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.12952/journal.elementa.000094/

 

Barnosky, et al., (2012). Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere. Nature, 486: 52-58.  http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/full/nature11018.html

 

Barnosky, et al., (2013). Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century. Consensus for Action, Stanford University. http://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/see-scientific-consensus/consensus_english_final-2.pdf

 

Baum, S (2015). The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives. Futures, 72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.001

 

Baum, S and Tonn, B (eds.) (2015). Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity [Special issue]. Futures, 72. http://sethbaum.com/ac/2015_CatastrophicThreats.html [Leads to several related articles]

 

Beard, S (2017). Climate Change and the Worst-Case Scenario. Institute for Public Policy Research. https://www.ippr.org/juncture-item/climate-change-and-the-worst-case-scenario

 

Beard, S, Holt, L and Upchurch, P (2019). Dinosaurs were Wiped Out by a Catastrophic Failure of Earth’s Natural Systems – the Same Could Happen to Us. Newsweek, March 29. https://www.newsweek.com/dinosaurs-catastrophic-failure-earths-natural-systems-1379592

 

Bendell, J (2018).  Deep Adaptation: Navigating Climate Tragedy.  Institute for Leadership and Sustainability Occasional Paper 2. http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf

 

Bendell, J (2019a). Notes on Hunger and Collapse. Wordpress, March 28. https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2019/03/28/notes-on-hunger-and-collapse/

 

Bendell, J (2019b). Compendium of Research Reports on Climate Chaos and Impacts. Institute for Leadership and Sustainability, July 7.  https://iflas.blogspot.com/2019/07/compendium-of-research-reports-on.html

 

Bendell, J (2020a). Climate Science and Collapse – Warnings Lost in the Wind. Jem Bendell.com, June 15. https://jembendell.com/2020/06/15/climate-science-and-collapse-warnings-lost-in-the-wind/

 

Bendell, J (2020b). Debating the Pros and Cons of Deep Adaptation? Start Here with a New Edition of Original Paper. Jem Bendell.com, July 27. https://jembendell.com/2020/07/27/debating-the-pros-and-cons-of-deep-adaptation-start-here-with-a-new-edition-of-original-paper/

 

Bendell, J (2020c). If Guys with Guns are Talking About Collapse, Why Can’t We? Jem Bendell.com, Nov. 11. https://jembendell.com/2020/11/11/if-guys-with-guns-are-talking-about-collapse-why-cant-we/

 

Bendell, J et al., (2020). International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse. Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability, University of Cumbria. http://iflas.blogspot.com/2020/12/international-scholars-warning-on.html

 

Bernado, J (2010). Global Crisis and the Uncertain Future, in Pires I, Gibert, M and Hens, L. (eds) Studies in Human Ecology. Belgian-Vietnamese Cooperation. Pdf 

 

Biggs, D, Biggs, R, Dakos, B, Scholes, R and Schoon, M (2011). Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises? Ecology and Society, 16(2). https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art27/

 

Blanton, R, Feinman, G, Kowalewski, S and Fargher, L (2020). Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past. Frontiers in Political Science, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2020.568704

 

Blasco, J (2016). The Last Generation. ACCIONA. https://www.activesustainability.com/opinion/the-last-generation/

 

Bologna, M and Aquino, G (2020). Deforestation and World Population Sustainability: A Quantitative Analysis. Scientific Reports, 10(7631). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6

 

Bostrom, N (2002). Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazard. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9(1). https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.pdf

 

Bostrom, N and Cirkovic, M (2008). Introduction, in Bostrom, N and Cirkovic, M [eds.] Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press. http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/Chap01.pdf

 

Bradford, J (2019). The Future is Rural: Food System Adaptations to the Great Simplification. Post Carbon Institute. https://www.postcarbon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-Future-Is-Rural-2019.pdf

 

Brannen, P (2017). Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth. The Atlantic, July. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/07/a-road-trip-to-the-end-of-the-world/532914/

 

Brewer, J (2018a). Why I No Longer Attempt to Build a Rigorous Science of Social Change. Center for Applied Cultural Evolution. https://www.slideshare.net/joebrewer31/why-i-am-no-longer-attempting-to-build-a-rigorous-science-of-social-change

 

Brewer, J (2018b). Cultural Scaffolding for Post Collapse. Center for Applied Cultural Evolution. https://www.slideshare.net/joebrewer31/cultural-scaffolding-for-post-collapse

 

Brito, L and Smith, M (2012). State of the Planet Declaration. Planet Under Pressure Conference: New Knowledge Towards Solutions. http://www.igbp.net/publications/stateoftheplanetdeclaration.4.6b007aff13cb59eff6411baa.html

 

Brosig, M, Frawley, P, Hill, A, Jahn, M,Mrsicek, M, Paris, A, Rose, M, Shambaljamts, A and Thomas, N (2019). Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army. U.S. Army War College. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf

 

Brown, J et al., (2011). Energetic Limits to Economic Growth. Bioscience, 61(1). https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.1.7

 

Burger, J and 10 co-authors (2012). The Macroecology of Sustainability. PLoS Biology, 10(6): https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001345

 

Butler, C (2016). Sounding the Alarm: Health in the Anthropocene. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(7). https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/7/665/htm

 

Butler, C (2017). Limits to Growth, Planetary Boundaries, and Planetary Health. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 25: 59-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.08.002

 

Butler, C (2018). Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(10). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6210172/

 

Butzer, K (2012). Collapse, Environment, and Society. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(10). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109 [Includes useful graphic of a model for what can lead to collapse or stabilization and reconstruction.]

 

Campbell, K, Gulledge, J, McNeill, J, Podesta, J, Ogden, P, Fuerth, L, Woolsey, RJ, Lennon, A, Smith, J, Weitz, R and Mix, D (2007). The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf

 

Capellan-Perez, I, Mediavilla, M, de Castro, C, Carpintero, O and Miguel, L (2015). More Growth? An Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change. Sustainability Science, 10. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-015-0299-3

 

Carter, P (2019). Dr. Peter Carter: Summarising the Lack of "Climate Emergency" at #COP25. YouTube, Dec. 10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa13KrOvE2s&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1WLLU3fulylAICs_0WDe6rZlb64heHf2ix_7ee6iHlFrRyWzAVLu19Bno

 

Cell Press (2020). Climate Change Likely Drove Early Human Species to Extinction, Modeling Study Suggests. Phys.Org, Oct. 15. https://phys.org/news/2020-10-climate-drove-early-human-species.amp

 

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (2020). Our Research. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/

 

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (2020). Extreme Risks and the Global Environment. University of Cambridge. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/extreme-risks-and-global-environment/  [Web site leading to many articles.]

 

Cole, A (2019). Climate Change is Genocide. Stuff.com, Aug. 25. https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/115230184/climate-change-is-genocide

 

Collins, C (2018). Meet Catabolic Capitalism: Globalization’s Gruesome Twin. Uneven Earth, Nov. 1. http://unevenearth.org/2018/11/meet-catabolic-capitalism-globalizations-gruesome-twin/

 

The Commission for the Human Future (2020). Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century. http://humansforsurvival.org/sites/default/files/CHF_Roundtable_Report_March_2020.pdf

 

Connor, R, Talafre, J, Hasan, E and Abolina, E (2015a). Unsustainable Growth, in The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015: Water for a Sustainable World. World Water Assessment Programme, UNESCO. Pp. 1-14. http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0023/002318/231823E.pdf 

 

Costanza, R, Graumlich, L, Steffen, W, Crumley, C, Dearing, J, Hibbard, K, Leemans, R, Redman, C and Schimel, D (2007). Sustainability or Collapse: What Can We Learn from Integrating the History of Humans and the Rest of Nature? AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment, 36(7). https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[522:SOCWCW]2.0.CO;2

 

Cribb, J (2014). Human Extinction: It is Possible? The Sydney Morning Herald, April 2. https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/human-extinction-it-is-possible-20140402-zqpln.html

 

Cuaron, A (2007). The Possibility of Hope. Bonus Feature Documentary on Children of Men DVD. Universal Studios. https://vimeo.com/5222051

 

Cumming, G and Peterson, G (2017). Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32(9). https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cumming2017_UnifyingResearchonSocial-EcologicalResilience.pdf [Thorough overview.]

 

Curtis, F (2009). Peak Globalization: Climate Change, Oil Depletion and Global Trade. Ecological Economics, 69(2): 427-434. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800909003334

 

Dalio, R (2020). The Changing World Order. Principles.com. https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/ [Online book looking at the patterns associated with the rise and fall of Empires, with an emphasis on the ongoing decline of the USA.]

 

DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012). Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2nd Edition: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet. Fundación DARA Internacional. https://daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/CVM2-Low.pdf

 

Dasgupta, R (2018).  The Demise of the Nation State.  The Guardian, April 5. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/05/demise-of-the-nation-state-rana-dasgupta

 

Dauncey, G (2019). Ok Doomer. Resilience, Nov. 26. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-26/ok-doomer/

 

Davis, W (2020). The Unraveling of America. Rolling Stone, Aug. 6. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/

 

Deep Green Resistance (2020). Indicators of Ecological Collapse. https://deepgreenresistance.org/en/why-resist/ecological-collapse

 

Diamond, J (2003). Why Societies Collapse. TED. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis [19 minute video]

 

Diamond, J (2005).  Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking Penguin.

 

Diamond, J and Wallace-Wells, D (2019).  Jared Diamond: There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World as We Know it Will End by 2050. New York Magazine. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html

 

Dowd, M (2020). Collapse 101: The Inevitable Fruit of Progress. YouTube, July 24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Ml9uJNF_kXk&app=desktop

 

Dunbar, R, Zebrowski, C and Olsson, P (2020). Is Humanity Doomed Because We Can’t Plan for the Long Term? Three Experts Discuss. The Conversation, Aug. 5. https://theconversation.com/is-humanity-doomed-because-we-cant-plan-for-the-long-term-three-experts-discuss-137943

 

Duncan, R (1991). The Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization. Systems Dynamics. https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/1991/proceed/main-pdfs/duncan173.pdf

 

Duterme, R and Servigne, P (2016). The Coming Collapse. Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt. http://www.cadtm.org/The-coming-collapse [Interview with authors of “Collapse, What Does it Mean?” and “How Everything Could Collapse” respectively]

 

Dyke, J (2019). Climate Change: ‘We’ve Created a Civilisation Hell Bent on Destroying Itself – I’m Terrified’, Writes Earth Scientist. The Conversation, May 24. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-weve-created-a-civilisation-hell-bent-on-destroying-itself-im-terrified-writes-earth-scientist-113055

 

Ehrenreich, B (2020). How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart? The New York Times, Nov. 4. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/magazine/societal-collapse.html

 

Ehrlich, P and Ehrlich, A (2013). Can a Collapse of Global Civilization be Avoided? Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 280(1754). https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2012.2845

 

Ehrlich, P and Ehrlich, A (2016). Population, Resources, and the Faith-Based Economy: the Situation in 2016. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 1(3). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-016-0003-y

 

Engelhardt, T (2019). The Collective Asteroid of Human History. Tikkun, Sept. 17. https://www.tikkun.org/the-collective-asteroid-of-human-history

 

Fallows, J (2019). The End of the Roman Empire Wasn’t That Bad: Maybe the End of the American One Won’t be Either. The Atlantic, Oct. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/10/in-the-fall-of-rome-good-news-for-america/596638/  

 

Farquhar, S, Halstead, J, Cotton-Barratt, O, Schubert, S, Belfield, H, and Snyder-Beattie, A (2017). Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance. Global Priorities Project. https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf

 

Felton, J (2019). Claim that Human Civilization Could End in 30 years is Speculative, Not Supported with Evidence. Climate Feedback, June 4. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

 

Femia, F and Werrel, C (2017). Climate Change, the Erosion of State Sovereignty, and World Order, in Werrell, C and Femia, F, (eds) Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape of the Anthropocene. The Center for Climate and Security. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/1_eroding-sovereignty.pdf

 

Foa, R and Mounk, Y (2017). The Signs of Deconsolidation. Journal of Democracy, 28(1): 5-15. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/article/signs-deconsolidation

 

Foss, N (2015). The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space. The Automatic Earth, Aug. 20. https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/08/nicole-foss-the-boundaries-and-future-of-solution-space/

 

Foster, J (2017). Towards Deep Hope: Climate Tragedy, Realism and Policy. Green House Think Tank. https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/uploads/4/8/3/2/48324387/towards_deep_hope_inside_final.pdf

 

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Haque, U (2020a). If Life Feels Bleak, It’s Because Our Civilization is Beginning to Collapse. Eudaimonia and Co., July 3. https://eand.co/if-life-feels-bleak-its-because-our-civilization-is-beginning-to-collapse-a787d62d714b

 

Haque, A (2020b). America is Having the Mother of All Social Collapses. Eudaimonia, July 24. https://eand.co/america-is-having-the-mother-of-all-social-collapses-1cac9aac0d17

 

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Kingsnorth, P (2019). Life Versus the Machine. Orion, March. https://orionmagazine.org/article/life-versus-the-machine/

 

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Lovelock, J (2006b). The Revenge of Gaia: Why the Earth is Fighting Back – and How we Can Still Save Humanity. Penguin Books.

 

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Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (2019). Responding to the Human Predicament.  Reducing the Threat of a Shattering Collapse of Civilization. https://mahb.stanford.edu/  [An impressive collection of articles with frequent additions.]

 

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Moses, A (2020). ‘Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome’: Top Climate Scientists. Voice of Action, June 5. https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/

 

Motesharrei, S, Rivas, J and Kalnay, E (2014). Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies. Ecological Economics, 101: 90-102. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615?via%3Dihub

 

Motesharrei, S and 19 co-authors (2016). Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems. National Science Review, 3: 470–494. https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/3/4/470/2669331

 

Mudede, C (2020). The Greatest Threat to the Human Race Is Not Climate Denialism But Climate Optimism. The Stranger, Feb. 20. https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/02/20/42923960/the-greatest-threat-to-the-human-race-is-not-climate-denialism-but-climate-optimism [Shares a frank assessment from mycologist Nicholas Money and a podcast of an interview.]

 

Munsch, M (2018). As the Climate Clock Strikes Midnight it’s Time to Look to the Morning. Bright Green, July 22. http://bright-green.org/2017/07/22/as-the-climate-clock-is-strikes-midnight-its-time-to-look-to-the-morning/

 

Munsch, M (2018). Quitting Your Job in the Anthropocene. Noteworthy – The Journal Blog, Nov. 9. https://blog.usejournal.com/quitting-your-job-in-the-anthropocene-13c81660ffa3

 

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Nelson, R (2020). Lethal Modernity. Forum contribution: After the Pandemic: Which Future? Great Transition Initiative. https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/pandemic-scenario-nelson

 

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Orlov, D (2013). The Five Stages of Collapse. New Society Publishers.

 

Orr, D (2009). Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse. Oxford Univ. Press.

 

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Pamlin, D and Armstrong, S (2015).  Global Challenges: 12 Risks that Threaten Human Civilisation. Global Challenges Foundation. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59dc930532601e9d148e3c25/t/59f11eebfe54ef5bd76cb38d/1508974382403/12-Risks-that-threaten-human-civilisation-GCF-Oxford-2015.pdf

 

Papillon (2020). The End of the World Is Nigh. Or Is It? Medium, May 4. https://medium.com/@papillon.earth/the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh-or-is-it-3c007726951e

 

Parker, B (2017). Climate Change Observations. Climate Change Data Center, Aug. 23. http://ccdatacenter.org/documents/ClimateChangeObservations.pdf  [A 15 point breakdown of why “we are likely on a path for an eventual temperature increase of at least 4°C, which would be catastrophic for our civilization.”]

 

Peak Prosperity (2014). The Crash Course. https://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/ [Breaks it down into a series of 26 videos.]

 

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Piper, K (2020). The Doomsday Clock is Now at “100 Seconds to Midnight.” Here’s What that Means. Vox, Jan. 23. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/23/21079028/climate-change-extinction-nuclear-war-ai-existential-risk-doomsday-clock

 

Plumer, B (2014). Two Degrees: The World Set a Simple Goal for Climate Change. We're Likely to Miss It. Vox, April 22. https://www.vox.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees

 

Poodwaddle (2019). Earth Clock. http://www.poodwaddle.com/worldclock/env/ [Provides a disturbing continuous tracking of statistics of environmental degradation. Accuracy uncertain.]

 

Post Carbon Institute (2010). The Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21st Century's Sustainability Crises. https://www.scribd.com/lists/3724981/The-Post-Carbon-Reader-Managing-the-21st-Century-s-Sustainability-Crises-2010 [30 essays by “some of the most provocative thinkers on the key issues shaping our new century, from renewable energy and urban agriculture to social justice and community resilience.”]

 

Post Carbon Institute and Anthropocene Actions (2020).  The Great Unraveling. https://www.postcarbon.org/great-unraveling/?mc_cid=dadf076686&mc_eid=0bca9c3843 [A series of video interviews and a videotaped event with a presentation and a panel discussion.]

 

Purtill, C (2020). How Close is Humanity to the Edge? The New Yorker, Nov. 21. https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-close-is-humanity-to-the-edge

 

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Randle, M and Eckersley, (2015). Public Perceptions of Future Threats to Humanity and Different Societal Responses: A Cross-national Study. Futures, 72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.06.004

 

Raskin, P (2014). A Great Transition? Where We Stand. Great Transition Initiative, Oct. https://greattransition.org/publication/a-great-transition-where-we-stand

 

Raudsepp-Hearne, C, et al., (2010).  Untangling the Environmentalist’s Paradox: Why Is Human Well-being Increasing as Ecosystem Services Degrade? Bioscience 60(8): 576-589. http://www.bioone.org/doi/pdf/10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.4

 

Read, R (2018a). Some Thoughts on ‘Civilisational Succession’. Truth and Power, Feb. 9. http://www.truthandpower.com/rupert-read-some-thoughts-on-civilisational-succession/

 

Read, R (2018b).  This Civilisation is Finished: So What is to be Done? IFLAS Occasional Paper 3, University of Cumbria. http://insight.cumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/4384/1/Read_WhatIsTo.pdf

 

Real News Network (2018). Michael Mann: We Are Even Closer To Climate Disaster Than IPCC Predicts. https://therealnews.com/stories/michael-mann-we-are-even-closer-to-climate-disaster-than-ipcc-predicts [video]

 

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Rees,M (2019). Prospects for Humanity. The Long Now Foundation. http://longnow.org/seminars/02019/jan/14/prospects-humanity/ [video of talk]

 

Rees, W (2017). Chapter 6. The Roots of Our Crises: Does Human Nature Drive Us Toward Collapse?, in Lerch, D (ed.), The Community Resilience Reader: Essential Resources for an Era of Upheaval. Post Carbon Institute. https://reader.resilience.org/

 

Rees, W (2019). End Game: The Economy as Eco-catastrophe and What Needs to Change. Real-World Economics Review, 87. http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue87/Rees87.pdf

 

Rees, W (2019). Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People. The Tyee, Sept. 18. https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/18/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out/

 

Rees, W (2019). Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist. The Tyee, Nov. 11. https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/11/Climate-Change-Realist-Face-Facts/

 

Rees, W (2019). Memo from a Climate Crisis Realist: The Choice before Us. The Tyee, Nov. 12. https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/

 

Reid, R (2019). In the Not-so-distant Future, “Synbio” Could Lead to Global Catastrophe—Maybe. Ars Technica, June 18. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/what-happens-if-we-engineer-a-superbug-and-the-lab-gets-hacked/

 

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Rezl, M (2020). Let’s Talk Collapse. https://www.letstalkthis.com/collapse/ [Thorough overview]

 

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Ripple, W, Wolf, C and Newson, T (2019). World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency. Bioscience Magazine, (in press). http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/climate%20emergency%20summary%207-25-19.pdf

 

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Roberts, D (2015). The Awful Truth About Climate Change No One Wants to Admit. Vox, May15. https://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/truth-climate-change

 

Roberts, D (2019). This is an Emergency, Damn It. Vox, Feb. 23. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/2/23/18228142/green-new-deal-critics

 

Robinson, K (2013). Is It Too Late?, in Assadourian, E and Prugh, T eds., State of the World 2013: Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute. http://library.uniteddiversity.coop/More_Books_and_Reports/State_of_the_World/State_of_the_World_2013-Is_Sustainability_Still_Possible.pdf

 

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Romm, J (2017). We Aren’t Doomed by Climate Change. Right Now we are Choosing to be Doomed. Resilience, July 12. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-07-12/we-arent-doomed-by-climate-change-right-now-we-are-choosing-to-be-doomed/

 

Rosenberg, P (2020). What Lies Ahead: After the Damage of the Trump Era, Can America Avoid Disaster? Salon, Nov. 22. https://www.salon.com/2020/11/21/what-lies-ahead-after-the-damage-of-the-trump-era-can-america-avoid-disaster/ [Insightful interview with historian Jack Goldstone.]

 

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Sandberg, A (2019). Will Climate Change Cause Humans to Go Extinct? The Conversation, May 29. https://theconversation.com/will-climate-change-cause-humans-to-go-extinct-117691

 

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Scheffer, M (2016). Anticipating Societal Collapse; Hints from the Stone Age. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(39). https://www.pnas.org/content/113/39/10733

 

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Science and Security Board (2019). 2019 Doomsday Clock Statement - A New Abnormal: It is Still Two Minutes to Midnight. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

 

Scranton, R (2019). Lessons from a Genocide Can Prepare Humanity for Climate Apocalypse. MIT Technology Review, April 24. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/

 

Seaton, L (2020). Painting Nationalism Green? New Left Review, https://newleftreview.org/issues/II124/articles/lola-seaton-painting-nationalism-green

 

Servigne, P and Stevens, R (2020). How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for our Times. Polity Press. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/How+Everything+Can+Collapse%3A+A+Manual+for+our+Times-p-9781509541393 [Available as an E-book]

 

Servigne, P, Stevens, R, Chapelle, G and Rodary, D (2020). Deep Adaptation Opens Up a Necessary Conversation About the Breakdown of Civilization. Open Democracy, Aug. 3. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/deep-adaptation-opens-necessary-conversation-about-breakdown-civilisation/

 

Shellenburger, M (2020). On Behalf of Environmentalists, I Apologize For The Climate Scare. Environmental Progress, June 29. http://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2020/6/29/on-behalf-of-environmentalists-i-apologize-for-the-climate-scare [Warning – climate change denialism article.  It was posted on Forbes, then they quickly deleted it. It is included here as it provides an opportunity for critique and rebuttal.]

 

Shenkman, R (2019). The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy. Politico, Sept. 8. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/08/shawn-rosenberg-democracy-228045

 

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Smith-Spark, L (2020). Humanity is Waging a 'Suicidal' War on Nature, UN Chief Warns. CNN, Dec. 2. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/world/un-state-of-the-planet-guterres-speech-intl/index.html

 

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Spinney, L (2018). End of Days: Is Western Civilisation on the Brink of Collapse? New Scientist, Jan. 17. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23731610-300-end-of-days-is-western-civilisation-on-the-brink-of-collapse/ [A quick overview of the primary scholars on this question.]

 

Spitzer, S (2019). An Open Letter to Those Who Haven’t Faced Climate Change. Respond to Climate Change, May 13. https://respondtoclimatechange.net/an-open-letter-to-those-who-havent-faced-climate-change/ [A solid overview.]

 

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Spratt, D and Dunlop, I (2019). Existential Climate-related Security risk: A Scenario Approach. Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration. https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_b2c0c79dc4344b279bcf2365336ff23b.pdf

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Steffen, W and 15 co-authors (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(33): 8252-8259. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 + Supporting Information https://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2018/07/31/1810141115.DCSupplemental

 

Stichele, M (2020). Asia’s Dystopian Future? Why Banks Need to Put Sustainable Finance Clearly in their Sights. Fair Finance Asia. https://fairfinanceasia.org/files/media/base/Asias%20Dystopian%20Future%20_An%20FFA%20%26%20SOMO%20study.pdf

 

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Taylor, K (2020). The Passing of Western Civilization. Futures, 122. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7245304/ [A key reading that takes the broad, historical view.]

 

Tenza, A, Pérez, I, Martínez-Fernández, J and Giménez, A (2017). Understanding the Decline and Resilience Loss of a Long-lived Social-ecological System: Insights from System Dynamics. Ecology and Society, 22(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09176-220215

 

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Thunberg, G (2019). You Did Not Act in Time': Greta Thunberg's Full Speech to MPs. The Guardian, April 23. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-full-speech-to-mps-you-did-not-act-in-time?fbclid=IwAR1fThsLYbYGduHBfJaNy-qlb-pTGnSHjMTHdivRpA8lUk2vrLoxfSLmh30

 

Tortell, P (2020). Earth 2020: Science, Society, and Sustainability in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,117(16). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2001919117

 

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Turchin, P (2012). Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780–2010. Journal of Peace Research, 49(4). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312442078

 

Turchin, P (2020). The Impending Crisis. Peter Turchin.com. http://peterturchin.com/age-of-discord/

 

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Tverberg, G (2012). Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Energy, 37(1). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211003744

 

Tverberg, G (2019). The Climate Change Story is Half True. Our Finite World, April 30. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/04/30/the-climate-change-story-is-half-true/ [On the more proximal likelihood of economic collapse compared to climate collapse]

 

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United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (2013). Part 3 – The Consequences of Global Environmental Change for Society, in World Social Science Report 2013: Changing Global Environments. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/world-social-science-report-2013_9789264203419-en  [With many brief articles on this topic.]

 

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United Nations Environment Programme (2019a). What is the Outlook for Humanity? https://www.unenvironment.org/interactive/global-environment-outlook/ [flash type presentation]

 

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