Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability

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VI.     Synthesis of Existential Risks and the Potential for Societal Collapse

Bounce me down to the bibliography citations

What’s Here

This bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t.  In this section, the referenced articles look at the big picture, synthesizing the various problems and trends and projecting our near future likely outcomes.  If you want to get maximally freaked out, this is your go-to section of the bibliography.

Many citations here are of articles from journals that are listed in italics, meaning they have gone through a peer review process.  There are also links to books, essays from blogs, news magazine analyses and op eds, a few videos, and some reports sponsored by government agencies and NGOs.  These are analyses of what the future holds, but few are modeling or statistics heavy studies.  Instead, these are articles where authors are sharing their evaluation based on a synthesis of many studies and their gut feelings about our state of affairs and what they portend.  This section is speculative.

There are > 200 articles in this section written by even more authors.  What is striking is the similarity of the take home messages in the lot, regardless of publication venue or author background. There is a growing, dark consensus here in the second decade of the 21st century. An ever-increasing segment of the climate scientists, environmental scientists, social scientists, science beat journalists, etc. have looked squarely upon what we have wrought here in the Anthropocene, in large part via their own review of the literature represented in the first 4 sections of this bibliography, and have concluded that our growth-at-all-costs capitalistic society will not be sustained.  It should be concerning that so many people, with their reputations on the line, are writing about the likelihood of societal collapse in this century.

But hey, maybe these authors have it all wrong.  Theirs is still, seemingly, a minority view.  Maybe they are wrong because their views reflect a vast conspiracy in the scientific community to usher in a leftist autocracy, as some on the right would have you believe.  Maybe they are wrong because they foolishly have insufficient faith in the clever power of free markets, laissez faire politics, plutocracy, and technological innovation to overcome any resource limits, climate instability, or massive population shifts.  Maybe they are wrong because climate change and the elimination of the planet’s diversity just isn’t a concern.

The previous paragraph is more than a little facetious. I dismiss these arguments as the products of motivated reasoning.1, 2, 3  Section III of this bibliography contains links to many articles that dismantle these arguments in a variety of ways, including the simple application of facts. But it is certainly fair to question just how justified are the gloomier prognostications of the articles cited below. After all, every generation has its doomsayers and yet we have been experiencing more or less continual economic growth, technological development, and intertwining globalization for centuries. 

It is also fair to wonder about the degree to which the authors represented in this section may be biased by their own motivated reasoning as well. What might motivate a rational person to conclude that society as we know it is destined to collapse, aside from troubling data and trends?  Why is there an apparent surge in apocalyptic thinking among people concerned with the environment and social justice?4, 5, 6  To some extent, this could come from an epidemic of despair over the failure of attempts to significantly reform our socio-economic system.7, 8  Or perhaps characterizing our challenge as potentially apocalyptic enables activists to better sell the urgency of their cause and position themselves as the heroic protagonist.9, 10

There is also an apparent romantic (or perhaps just exhausted) yearning within the environmental community for a more decentralized, pastoral, and communal lifestyle, which may well end up being the best-case scenario for fortunate regions on the other side of significant economic and political collapse. There are many advocates of eco-communalism as the way forward within the sustainability community.5, 11 

There may also be something more subconscious influencing some doomsayers.  If you reach the conclusion that we are embedded in a system that is horrifically damaging, unjust, beyond democratic control, and inherently pathological, you just might find some hidden comfort in a narrative where it is destined to fall in relatively short order. In this narrative, you no longer have any responsibility to do anything to fix a doomed and irredeemable system. It’s going to happen and you can bide your time while continuing to participate in a system you can simultaneously disavow.12  This is essentially the fatalistic take of Jonathan Franzen in his 9/8/19 essay in The New Yorker magazine that received so much pushback during the week I wrote this preface.13  

None of this is to say, however, that the assessments projecting possible societal collapse within this century are easily dismissed, regardless of any motivated reasoning that may lurk in the hearts of the authors. Sometimes the data does support a conclusion that echoes your preconceptions.  Civilizations do collapse and there is little reason to think that ours is immune to the stresses that have taken out so many previous grand societies. Meanwhile, we are facing an additional, unique set of serious challenges on a horrifying time table as detailed in sections I, II, III and IV.  Collapsed is not an inappropriate description right now for the status of countries like Yemen and Venezuela and it certainly seems like the world is becoming more unstable.14, 15, 16 Ultimately, however, it is up to you – the judicious reader – to decide whether the conclusions of the articles in this section are justified or not. 

Many people have been performing this exact evaluation and section VII of this bibliography (Activisim, Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of Confronting the “Traumacene) shares articles relating the impacts this process is having on those who feel that our future prospects are grim indeed. As is apparent via the articles of section VII, there is a groundswell of environmental anxiety, grief, and alarm to the extent that children are protesting in the streets,17, 18 women are swearing off having children,19, 20 the trending climate activism group is called Extinction Rebellion, and the psychiatric community is grappling with a whole new kind of PTSD. 21, 22 

If you are looking for some solace, you can see how the collapse outcome isn’t explicitly included in most of the scenario analyses of the articles shared in section V, though it is a potential trajectory in the Great Transitions analysis. Also, section XII (Hopeful Resources – On Hope, Activism, and Examples of Positive Change) contains many resources meant to alleviate the despair and paralysis from feeling that a dystopian future is in the cards.  For example, there are links in that section to many groups one could support in their fight against a darker future, along with tales of success and the power of hope.  In that vein, section VIII (Conservation, Restoration, Mitigation,  Adaptation à Resilience) shares articles on many varied efforts, both occurring and proposed, to foster resilience and thus shore up society in some recognizable form.  Section XI (Sustainability Manifestos), on the other hand, provides links to numerous proposals for more transformative, just, and sustainable reformations of culture and socio-economics that we can implement to either avoid outright collapse or use as guides in the aftermath of non-apocalyptic forms of collapse.  And yes, there are movements afoot to prepare for and soften any imminent collapse.23, 24, 25, 26

I have written all of the above to prepare you - to inoculate you - prior to reading the articles cited below.  They aren’t likely to sit well unless you are craving some confirmation of your own preconceived dystopian fears.  Professors and teachers of all levels may want to start with Jem Bendell’s landmark paper as he is writing specifically to his fellow academics and he has followed it up by establishing a community (grown to >10,000 participants in just 6 months) to discuss how best to adapt to collapse.27, 28


If reading these articles are making you despair, take a break and deflect with a laugh. Still too dark? Ok, try this one. Not making you feel better? Go full absurd here.



?? (2021). Collapse. [Links to many books of relevance to Collapse, nicely categorized.]


Ahmed, N (2014). Nasa-funded Study: Industrial Civilisation Headed for 'Irreversible Collapse'? The Guardian, March 14.


Ahmed, N (2017). Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence. Springer International Pub. or


Ahmed, N (2019a). Scientists Warn the UN of Capitalism’s Imminent Demise., May 2.


Ahmed, N (2019b). U.S. Military Could Collapse Within 20 Years Due to Climate Change, Report Commissioned By Pentagon Says. Vice, Oct. 24.


Ahmed, N (2019c). The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already Begun. Vice, Nov. 22.


Ahmed, N (2020a). West’s ‘Dust Bowl’ Future now ‘Locked In’, as World Risks Imminent Food Crisis. Resilience, Jan. 6.


Ahmed, N (2020b). Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades. Vice, July 28.


Ahmed, N and Miller, A (2020). Our Naked Emperors Catch Coronavirus: Nafeez Ahmed on Global System Breakdown. Crazy Town podcast, April. Post Carbon Institute.


Alexander, S (2015). Voluntary Simplification as an Alternative to Collapse, in Prosperous Descent. Simplicity Institute Publishing.


American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014). What We Know: The Realities, Risks and Response to Climate Change.


Andersen, R (2012). We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction. The Atlantic, March 6.


Assadourian, E (2020a). Living with Collapse. Medium, Oct. 29.


Assadourian, E (2020b). America’s Democracy in an Era of Collapse. Medium, Nov. 10.


Bardi, U, Falsini, S and Perissi, I (2019). Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse: A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model of the Diminishing Returns of Complexity. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 4(3).


Barnosky, A and 16 co-authors (2014). Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: Information for Policy Makers. Stanford University.  


Barnosky, A, Ehrlich, P and Hadly, E (2016). Avoiding Collapse: Grand Challenges for Science and Society to Solve by 2050. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 4.


Barnosky, et al., (2012). Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere. Nature, 486: 52-58.


Barnosky, et al., (2013). Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century. Consensus for Action, Stanford University.


Baum, S (2015). The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives. Futures, 72.


Baum, S and Tonn, B (eds.) (2015). Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity [Special issue]. Futures, 72. [Leads to several related articles]


Beard, S (2017). Climate Change and the Worst-Case Scenario. Institute for Public Policy Research.


Beard, S, Holt, L and Upchurch, P (2019). Dinosaurs were Wiped Out by a Catastrophic Failure of Earth’s Natural Systems – the Same Could Happen to Us. Newsweek, March 29.


Bendell, J (2018).  Deep Adaptation: Navigating Climate Tragedy.  Institute for Leadership and Sustainability Occasional Paper 2.


Bendell, J (2019a). Notes on Hunger and Collapse. Wordpress, March 28.


Bendell, J (2019b). Compendium of Research Reports on Climate Chaos and Impacts. Institute for Leadership and Sustainability, July 7.


Bendell, J (2020a). Climate Science and Collapse – Warnings Lost in the Wind. Jem, June 15.


Bendell, J (2020b). Debating the Pros and Cons of Deep Adaptation? Start Here with a New Edition of Original Paper. Jem, July 27.


Bendell, J (2020c). If Guys with Guns are Talking About Collapse, Why Can’t We? Jem, Nov. 11.


Bendell, J et al., (2020). International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse. Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability, University of Cumbria.


Bernado, J (2010). Global Crisis and the Uncertain Future, in Pires I, Gibert, M and Hens, L. (eds) Studies in Human Ecology. Belgian-Vietnamese Cooperation. Pdf 


Biggs, D, Biggs, R, Dakos, B, Scholes, R and Schoon, M (2011). Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises? Ecology and Society, 16(2).


Blanton, R, Feinman, G, Kowalewski, S and Fargher, L (2020). Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past. Frontiers in Political Science,


Blasco, J (2016). The Last Generation. ACCIONA.


Bologna, M and Aquino, G (2020). Deforestation and World Population Sustainability: A Quantitative Analysis. Scientific Reports, 10(7631).


Bostrom, N (2002). Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazard. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9(1).


Bostrom, N and Cirkovic, M (2008). Introduction, in Bostrom, N and Cirkovic, M [eds.] Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press.


Bradford, J (2019). The Future is Rural: Food System Adaptations to the Great Simplification. Post Carbon Institute.


Brannen, P (2017). Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth. The Atlantic, July.


Brewer, J (2018a). Why I No Longer Attempt to Build a Rigorous Science of Social Change. Center for Applied Cultural Evolution.


Brewer, J (2018b). Cultural Scaffolding for Post Collapse. Center for Applied Cultural Evolution.


Brito, L and Smith, M (2012). State of the Planet Declaration. Planet Under Pressure Conference: New Knowledge Towards Solutions.


Brosig, M, Frawley, P, Hill, A, Jahn, M,Mrsicek, M, Paris, A, Rose, M, Shambaljamts, A and Thomas, N (2019). Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army. U.S. Army War College.


Brown, J et al., (2011). Energetic Limits to Economic Growth. Bioscience, 61(1).


Burger, J and 10 co-authors (2012). The Macroecology of Sustainability. PLoS Biology, 10(6):


Butler, C (2016). Sounding the Alarm: Health in the Anthropocene. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(7).


Butler, C (2017). Limits to Growth, Planetary Boundaries, and Planetary Health. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 25: 59-65.


Butler, C (2018). Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(10).


Butzer, K (2012). Collapse, Environment, and Society. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(10). [Includes useful graphic of a model for what can lead to collapse or stabilization and reconstruction.]


Campbell, K, Gulledge, J, McNeill, J, Podesta, J, Ogden, P, Fuerth, L, Woolsey, RJ, Lennon, A, Smith, J, Weitz, R and Mix, D (2007). The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change. Center for Strategic and International Studies.


Capellan-Perez, I, Mediavilla, M, de Castro, C, Carpintero, O and Miguel, L (2015). More Growth? An Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change. Sustainability Science, 10.


Carter, P (2019). Dr. Peter Carter: Summarising the Lack of "Climate Emergency" at #COP25. YouTube, Dec. 10.


Cell Press (2020). Climate Change Likely Drove Early Human Species to Extinction, Modeling Study Suggests. Phys.Org, Oct. 15.


Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (2020). Our Research.


Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (2020). Extreme Risks and the Global Environment. University of Cambridge.  [Web site leading to many articles.]


Cole, A (2019). Climate Change is Genocide., Aug. 25.


Collins, C (2018). Meet Catabolic Capitalism: Globalization’s Gruesome Twin. Uneven Earth, Nov. 1.


The Commission for the Human Future (2020). Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century.


Connor, R, Talafre, J, Hasan, E and Abolina, E (2015a). Unsustainable Growth, in The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015: Water for a Sustainable World. World Water Assessment Programme, UNESCO. Pp. 1-14. 


Costanza, R, Graumlich, L, Steffen, W, Crumley, C, Dearing, J, Hibbard, K, Leemans, R, Redman, C and Schimel, D (2007). Sustainability or Collapse: What Can We Learn from Integrating the History of Humans and the Rest of Nature? AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment, 36(7).[522:SOCWCW]2.0.CO;2


Cribb, J (2014). Human Extinction: It is Possible? The Sydney Morning Herald, April 2.


Cuaron, A (2007). The Possibility of Hope. Bonus Feature Documentary on Children of Men DVD. Universal Studios.


Cumming, G and Peterson, G (2017). Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32(9). [Thorough overview.]


Curtis, F (2009). Peak Globalization: Climate Change, Oil Depletion and Global Trade. Ecological Economics, 69(2): 427-434.


Dalio, R (2020). The Changing World Order. [Online book looking at the patterns associated with the rise and fall of Empires, with an emphasis on the ongoing decline of the USA.]


DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012). Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2nd Edition: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet. Fundación DARA Internacional.


Dasgupta, R (2018).  The Demise of the Nation State.  The Guardian, April 5.


Dauncey, G (2019). Ok Doomer. Resilience, Nov. 26.


Davis, W (2020). The Unraveling of America. Rolling Stone, Aug. 6.


Deep Green Resistance (2020). Indicators of Ecological Collapse.


Diamond, J (2003). Why Societies Collapse. TED. [19 minute video]


Diamond, J (2005).  Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking Penguin.


Diamond, J and Wallace-Wells, D (2019).  Jared Diamond: There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World as We Know it Will End by 2050. New York Magazine.


Dowd, M (2020). Collapse 101: The Inevitable Fruit of Progress. YouTube, July 24.


Dunbar, R, Zebrowski, C and Olsson, P (2020). Is Humanity Doomed Because We Can’t Plan for the Long Term? Three Experts Discuss. The Conversation, Aug. 5.


Duncan, R (1991). The Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization. Systems Dynamics.


Duterme, R and Servigne, P (2016). The Coming Collapse. Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt. [Interview with authors of “Collapse, What Does it Mean?” and “How Everything Could Collapse” respectively]


Dyke, J (2019). Climate Change: ‘We’ve Created a Civilisation Hell Bent on Destroying Itself – I’m Terrified’, Writes Earth Scientist. The Conversation, May 24.


Ehrenreich, B (2020). How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart? The New York Times, Nov. 4.


Ehrlich, P and Ehrlich, A (2013). Can a Collapse of Global Civilization be Avoided? Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 280(1754).


Ehrlich, P and Ehrlich, A (2016). Population, Resources, and the Faith-Based Economy: the Situation in 2016. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 1(3).


Engelhardt, T (2019). The Collective Asteroid of Human History. Tikkun, Sept. 17.


Fallows, J (2019). The End of the Roman Empire Wasn’t That Bad: Maybe the End of the American One Won’t be Either. The Atlantic, Oct.  


Farquhar, S, Halstead, J, Cotton-Barratt, O, Schubert, S, Belfield, H, and Snyder-Beattie, A (2017). Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance. Global Priorities Project.


Felton, J (2019). Claim that Human Civilization Could End in 30 years is Speculative, Not Supported with Evidence. Climate Feedback, June 4.


Femia, F and Werrel, C (2017). Climate Change, the Erosion of State Sovereignty, and World Order, in Werrell, C and Femia, F, (eds) Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape of the Anthropocene. The Center for Climate and Security.


Foa, R and Mounk, Y (2017). The Signs of Deconsolidation. Journal of Democracy, 28(1): 5-15.


Foss, N (2015). The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space. The Automatic Earth, Aug. 20.


Foster, J (2017). Towards Deep Hope: Climate Tragedy, Realism and Policy. Green House Think Tank.


The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability (2019). Avoiding Tyranny.  [A transcript of a revealing exchange between an ecological economist and a mainstream economist. They quickly reach an impasse where the mainstream economist won’t acknowledge the pathologies of our interlinked energy and financial systems and the ecological economist squirms when accused of supporting a kind of governance best characterized as an “ecological tyranny.”]


Fragile States Index (2020). Measuring Fragility: Risk and Vulnerability in 178 Countries.


Franco, E (2020). Global Risk Report 2020. World Economic Forum.


Franzen, J (2019). What If We Stopped Pretending? The New Yorker, Sept. 8. [Easy to read, but fatalist]


Future Earth (2020). Our Future on Earth.


Future of Humanity Institute (n.d.). Existential Risk FAQ: Threats to Humanity’s Future. University of Oxford.


Gaub, F (2019). Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. European Strategy and Policy Analysis System.


Ge, M, Lebling, K, Levin, K and Friedrich, J (2019). Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point. World Resources Institute.


Gelspan, R (2007). It’s Too Late to Stop Climate Change, Argues Ross Gelbspan — So What Do We Do Now? Grist, Dec. 11.


Gergis, J (2020). The Great Unravelling: 'I Never Thought I’d Live to See the Horror of Planetary Collapse'. The Guardian, Oct. 14.


Gesturing Toward Decolonial Futures (2020a). The (Shit) Storm Categories.


Gesturing Toward Decolonial Futures (2020b). Preparing for the End of the World as We Know It. Open Democracy, Aug 24.


Giangrande, N (2020). Is Deep Adaptation Good Science? The Ecologist, July 29.


Gilding, P (2012). The Earth is Full. TED talk. [Clear and concise overview]


Gilkson, A (2020). While We Fixate on Coronavirus, Earth is Hurtling Towards a Catastrophe Worse than the Dinosaur Extinction. The Conversation, April 2.


Gillings, M and Hagan-Lawson, E (2014). The Cost of Living in the Anthropocene. Earth Perspectives, 1(2). [Good overview of our challenges]


Gills, B and Morgan, J (2019). Global Climate Emergency: After COP24, Climate Science, Urgency, and the Threat to Humanity. Globalizations, 17(6). [Good one]


Global Challenges Foundation (2017). Global Catastrophic Risk 2017.


Global Challenges Foundation (2018). Global Catastrophic Risk 2018.


Goldstone, J (2017). Demographic Structural Theory: 25 Years On. Cliodynamics, 8(2). [Review of Demographic Structural Theory in explaining politics, history, and long-term economic trends.]


Goldstone, J, Bates, R, Epstein, D, Gurr, T, Lustik, M, Marshall, M, Ulfelder, J and Woodward, M (2020). A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1).


Goldstone, J and Turchin, P (2020). Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’. Noema, Sept. 10.


Gowdy, J (2020). Our Hunter-gatherer Future: Climate Change, Agriculture and Uncivilization. Futures, 115.


Greenfield, P and Watts, J (2020). JP Morgan Economists Warn Climate Crisis is Threat to Human Race. The Guardian, Feb. 21.


Greer, J (2005). How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse. Ecoshock.


Greer, J (2011). The Onset of Catabolic Collapse. Resilience, Jan. 20.


Greer, J (2012). Progress vs. Apocalypse: The Stories We Tell Ourselves, in Butler, T, Lerch, D and Wuerthner, G (eds.), The Energy Reader: Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth. Watershed Media and Post Carbon Institute.


Greer, J (2014). Bright Were the Halls Then. Resilience.Org, July 10.


Guterres, A (2020). Remarks to the General Assembly on the Secretary-General's Priorities for 2020. United Nations Secretary-General.


Hagens, N (2018). Where are We Going? The 40 Shades of Grey. Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere. [Unusual structure posing a series of dichotomies]


Haldon, J, Eisenberg, M, Mordechai, L, Izdebski, A and White, S (2020). Lessons from the Past, Policies for the Future: Resilience and Sustainability in Past Crises. Environment Systems and Decisions, 40.


Hallam, R (2019). Common Sense for the 21st Century: Only Nonviolent Rebellion Can Now Stop Climate Breakdown and Social Collapse. Roger Hallam.Com.


Halpern D (2018). Sperm Count Zero. GQ Magazine, Sept. 4.


Halstead, J (2019a). Existential Risk Executive Summary. Founder’s Pledge, Jan. 1.


Halstead, J (2019b). 10 Reasons Why We’re Not Going to Be Saved. Another End of the World, Nov. 5.


Hanson, J and 17 co-authors (2013). Assessing ‘‘Dangerous Climate Change’’: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLOS One, 8(12): e81648.


Harari, Y (2018). We Need a Post-liberal Order Now. The Economist, Sept. 26.


Haque, A (2019a). The Age of Collapse. Resilience.Org, Aug. 7.


Haque, U (2019b). How Capitalism Torched the Planet by Imploding into Fascism. Eudamonia & Co, Sept. 21.


Haque, U (2020a). If Life Feels Bleak, It’s Because Our Civilization is Beginning to Collapse. Eudaimonia and Co., July 3.


Haque, A (2020b). America is Having the Mother of All Social Collapses. Eudaimonia, July 24.


Hedges, C (2013). The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies. Truth Dig, Oct. 13.


Hedges, C (2019a). Sermon at Christ Church Cathedral, Victoria B.C. YouTube, Jan. 20.


Hedges, C (2019b). The World to Come. Truthdig, Jan. 29.


Hedges, C (2019c). The Coming Collapse. Common Dreams, May 21.


Hedges, C and Paikin, S (2018). The Collapse of the American Empire? The Agenda, Sept. 12. YouTube.


Heinberg, R (2014). Two Realities. Resilience.Org, July, 22.


Heinberg, R (2017). Are We Doomed? Let’s Have a Talk.


Heinberg, R (2018a). Ted Nordhaus Is Wrong: We Are Exceeding Earth’s Carrying Capacity. UnDark, July 26.


Heinberg, R (2018b). The Big Picture. Resilience.Org.


Heinberg, R (2019). The House is on Fire. Resilience.Org, Feb. 28.


Heinberg, R (2020). Doom or Denial: Is There Another Path? Resilience, July 24.


Heinberg, R and Fridley, D (2016). Our Renewable Future. Post Carbon Institute.  [An online book that provides a thorough overview of the potential and challenges of transitioning to renewable energy sources].


Hickerson, R (1997). Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization. Dieoff, Aug. 2.


Holmgren, D (2013). Crash on Demand: Welcome to the Brown Tech Future. Simplicity Institute Report 13c.


Homer-Dixon, T (2020). Coronavirus Will Change the World. It Might Also Lead to a Better Future. The Globe and Mail, Mar. 6.


Homer-Dixon, T, Walker, B, Biggs, R, Crépin, A, Folke, C, Lambin, E, Peterson, G, Rockström, J, Scheffer, M, W. Steffen, and Troell, M (2015). Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis. Ecology and Society, 20(3).


Hoornweg, D, Hosseini, M, Kennedy, C and Behdadi, A (2016). An Urban Approach to Planetary Boundaries. Ambio, 45:567–580.


Humphrey, N (2019). Ongoing Abrupt Climate Change and Consequences. Patreon, Nov. 15.


Hunter, A and Hewson, J (2020). There are 10 Catastrophic Threats Facing Humans Right Now, and Coronavirus is Only One of Them. The Conversation, April 21.


Hutchinson, R (2017). This Moment: The Emergency, the Opportunity. Green House Think Tank.


Ingram, C (2019). Facing Extinction.


Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (2018). Global Report on Internal Displacement 2018.


Jamail, D (2019). We Are Destroying Our Life Support System. Truthout, Jan. 28.


Jones, A, Natalini, D and Phadtare, I (2019). Environmental Stress is Already Causing Death – This Chaos Map Shows Where. The Conversation, Oct. 24.


Jones, A and Steffen, W (2019). Our Climate is Like Reckless Banking Before the Crash – It’s Time to Talk About Near-term Collapse. The Conversation, Dec. 6.


Kaplan, R (1994). The Coming Anarchy. The Atlantic, Feb.


Kareiva, P and Carranza, V (2018). Existential Risk Due to Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back. Futures, 102.


Kareiva, P, Watts, S, McDonald, R and Boucher, T (2007). Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare. Science, 316(5833). [Controversial in its call for continued domestication of landscapes.]


Kemp, L (2019a). Are We on the Road to Civilisation Collapse? BBC Future, Feb. 18.


Kemp, L (2019b). Civilisational Collapse has a Bright Past – But a Dark Future. Aeon, May 21.


Kilian, C (2018). If We Can’t Stop Hothouse Earth, We’d Better Learn to Live on It. The Tyee, Aug. 15.


Killjoy, M (2019). How to Live Like the World is Ending. Birds Before the Storm, Dec. 13.


Ki-Moon, B, Robinson, M, Brown, J and Perry, W (2020). Why the World is Closer than Ever to Doomsday. CNN, Jan. 24.


Kingsnorth, P (2011). Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist. Orion Magazine.


Kingsnorth, P (2012). Dark Ecology. Orion Magazine.


Kingsnorth, P (2019). Life Versus the Machine. Orion, March.


Knorr, W et al., (2020). After Coronavirus, Focus on the Climate Emergency. The Guardian, May 10.


Kolbert, E (2020). Three Scenarios for the Future of Climate Change. The New Yorker, Oct. 5.


Korowicz, D (2010). Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production. The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability.


Kurmanaev, A (2019). Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say. NY Times, May 17.


Larkin, A, Kuriakose, J, Sharmina, M and Anderson, K (2018). What if Negative Emission Technologies Fail at Scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for Big Emitting Nations. Climate Policy, 18.


Laybourn-Langton, L, Rankin, L and Baxter, D (2019). This is a Crisis: Facing Up to the Age of Environmental Breakdown. Institute for Public Policy Research.


Lent, J (2017a). How Civilizations Collapse. Jeremy


Lent, J (2017b). What Will It Really Take to Avoid Collapse? Patterns of Meaning, Dec. 12.


Lent, J (2019a). What Will You Say to Your Grandchildren? Patterns of Meaning, April 4. [A critique of Jem Bendell’s Deep Adaptation paper]


Lent, J (2019b). Our Actions Create the Future: A Response to Jem Bendell. Patterns of Meaning, April 11.


Lent, J (2019c). As Society Unravels, the Future Is Up for Grabs. Patterns of Meaning, Sept. 12.


Lenton, T, et al., (2008). Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 105(6): 1786-1793.


Lerch, D (2017). The Community Resilience Reader: Essential Resources for an Era of Upheaval. Post Carbon Institute.


Lidicker, W (2020). A Scientist’s Warning to Humanity on Human Population Growth. Global Ecology and Conservation, 24.


Lipschutz, R (2018). Eco-utopia or Eco-catastrophe? Imagining California as an Ecological Utopia. Elementa Science of the Anthropocene. 6:65.


Lovelock, J (2006a). The Earth is About to Catch a Morbid Fever that May Last as Long as 100,000 Years. Independent, Jan. 16.


Lovelock, J (2006b). The Revenge of Gaia: Why the Earth is Fighting Back – and How we Can Still Save Humanity. Penguin Books.


Lucas T and Horton, R (2019). The 21st-century Great Food Transformation. The Lancet, 393(10170). 


Mace, G (2012). The Limits to Sustainability Science: Ecological Constraints or Endless Innovation? PLoS Biology, 10(6):


Maher, T and Baum, S (2013). Adaptation To and Recovery from Global Catastrophe. Sustainability, 5(4).


Malik, N (2020). Uncovering Transitions in Paleoclimate Time Series and the Climate Driven Demise of an Ancient Civilization. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30.


Mann, M (2014). Earth Will Cross the Danger Threshold in 2036. Scientific American, April 1.


Martensen, C (2019). Collapse is Already Here. It’s a Process, Not an Event. Peak Prosperity, March 10.


Martin, JL, Maris, V and Simberloff, D (2016). The Need to Respect Nature and its Limits Challenges Society and Conservation Science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(22).


Martine, G and Diniz Alves, J (2019). Disarray in Global Governance and Climate Change Chaos.  Revista Brasileira De Estudos De População, 36.


Marvel, K (2019). Lost Cities and Climate Change. Scientific American, July 29.


Matheny, J (2007). Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction. Risk Analysis, 27(5).


McKibben, B (2016). A World at War: We’re Under Attack from Climate Change—and Our Only Hope is to Mobilize Like We Did in WWII. The New Republic, Aug. 15.


McKibben, B (2019). Hello from the Year 2050. We Avoided the Worst of Climate Change — But Everything Is Different. Time, Sept. 12.


Menker, S (2017). A Global Food Crisis May Be Less than a Decade Away. TED.


Meyer, R (2019a). Are We Living Through Climate Change’s Worst-Case Scenario? The Atlantic, Jan. 15.


Meyer, R (2019b). How Climate Change Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis. The Atlantic, Aug. 1.


Middleton, G (2012). Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies. Journal of Archaeological Research, 20(3).


Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (2019). Responding to the Human Predicament.  Reducing the Threat of a Shattering Collapse of Civilization.  [An impressive collection of articles with frequent additions.]


Miller, T (2017). The Era of Walls: Greeting Climate-Change Victims with a Man-Made Dystopia. TomDispatch, The Nation Institute.


Monbiot, G (2014). It's Simple. If We Can't Change our Economic System, Our Number's Up. The Guardian, May 27.


Mora, C et al., (2018). Broad Threat to Humanity from Cumulative Climate Hazards Intensified by Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Nature Climate Change, 8: 1062–1071.


Moriarty, P and Honnery, D (2014). The Earth We are Creating. AIMS Energy, 2(2).


Moriarty, P and Honnery, D (2015). Future Cities in a Warming World. Futures, 66. [Predicts that “peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades.”]


Moriarty, P and Honnery, D (2017). Three Futures: Nightmare, Diversion, Vision. World Futures, 74(2).


Morgan, D (2009). World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race. Futures, 41(10).


Morgan, T (2013). Perfect Storm: Energy, Finance and the End of Growth. Tullet Prebon.


Morgan, T (2019). The Art of Dark Sky Thinking: Economics, the Environment and the Probability of ‘De-Growth’. Surplus Energy Economics, #155. Sept. 2.


Morris, I (2016). Incredible Archaeological Discoveries. World Economic Forum. [Video on archaeological evidence for factors that determine whether or not ancient civilization collapsed]


Moses, A (2020). ‘Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome’: Top Climate Scientists. Voice of Action, June 5.


Motesharrei, S, Rivas, J and Kalnay, E (2014). Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies. Ecological Economics, 101: 90-102.


Motesharrei, S and 19 co-authors (2016). Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems. National Science Review, 3: 470–494.


Mudede, C (2020). The Greatest Threat to the Human Race Is Not Climate Denialism But Climate Optimism. The Stranger, Feb. 20. [Shares a frank assessment from mycologist Nicholas Money and a podcast of an interview.]


Munsch, M (2018). As the Climate Clock Strikes Midnight it’s Time to Look to the Morning. Bright Green, July 22.


Munsch, M (2018). Quitting Your Job in the Anthropocene. Noteworthy – The Journal Blog, Nov. 9.


Mukerjee, M (2012). Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return? Scientific American, May 23.


Myers, S (2009). Global Environmental Change: The Threat to Human Health. Worldwatch Report 181.


Neale, J (2019). Social Collapse and Climate Breakdown. Ecologist, May 8.


Nekola, J et al., (2013). The Malthusian–Darwinian Dynamic and the Trajectory of Civilization. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28(3).


New Scientist (2018). Apocalypse Not Now But the Fate of Civilisation is In Our Hands. [Very short introduction to the topic.]


The Next System Project (2019). The Index of Systemic Trends.


Nicholas, T, Hall, G and Schmidt, C (2020). The Faulty Science, Doomism, and Flawed Conclusions of Deep Adaptation. Open Democracy, July 14.


Nelson, R (2020). Lethal Modernity. Forum contribution: After the Pandemic: Which Future? Great Transition Initiative.


Nolan, C and 41 co-authors (2018). Past and Future Global Transformation of Terrestrial Ecosystems Under Climate Change. Science, 361(6405):


Nuwer, R (2017).  How Western Civilisation Could Collapse.  BBC Future, April 18. [An easy overview]


O’Brien, K (2013). What’s the Problem? Putting Global Environmental Change into Perspective, in United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, World Social Science Report 2013: Changing Global Environments.


Oreskes, N and Conway, E (2013). The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future. Daedalus, 142(1): 40-58.


Orlov, D (2013). The Five Stages of Collapse. New Society Publishers.


Orr, D (2009). Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse. Oxford Univ. Press.


Oxford Climate Society (2020). The Existential Risk of Climate Change. Oxford Climate Society Online Events, June 16. [Video of panel discussion with David Wallace Wells, Zeke Hausfather, Luke Kemp and Kate Guy]


Pamlin, D and Armstrong, S (2015).  Global Challenges: 12 Risks that Threaten Human Civilisation. Global Challenges Foundation.


Papillon (2020). The End of the World Is Nigh. Or Is It? Medium, May 4.


Parker, B (2017). Climate Change Observations. Climate Change Data Center, Aug. 23.  [A 15 point breakdown of why “we are likely on a path for an eventual temperature increase of at least 4°C, which would be catastrophic for our civilization.”]


Peak Prosperity (2014). The Crash Course. [Breaks it down into a series of 26 videos.]


Pimentel, D, Whitecraft, M, Scott, Z, Zhao, L, Satkiewicz, P, Scott, T, Phillips, J, Szimak, D, Singh, G, Gonzalez, D and Moe, T (2010). Will Limited Land, Water, and Energy Control Human Population Numbers in the Future? Human Ecology, 38(5).


Piper, K (2020). The Doomsday Clock is Now at “100 Seconds to Midnight.” Here’s What that Means. Vox, Jan. 23.


Plumer, B (2014). Two Degrees: The World Set a Simple Goal for Climate Change. We're Likely to Miss It. Vox, April 22.


Poodwaddle (2019). Earth Clock. [Provides a disturbing continuous tracking of statistics of environmental degradation. Accuracy uncertain.]


Post Carbon Institute (2010). The Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21st Century's Sustainability Crises. [30 essays by “some of the most provocative thinkers on the key issues shaping our new century, from renewable energy and urban agriculture to social justice and community resilience.”]


Post Carbon Institute and Anthropocene Actions (2020).  The Great Unraveling. [A series of video interviews and a videotaped event with a presentation and a panel discussion.]


Purtill, C (2020). How Close is Humanity to the Edge? The New Yorker, Nov. 21.


Quilley, S (2013). De-Growth Is Not a Liberal Agenda: Relocalisation and the Limits to Low Energy Cosmopolitanism. Environmental Values, 22.


Quinn, D (1996). The Boiling Frog, in The Story of B. New York, NY: Bantam Books. Pp. 258-275. pdf


Raia, P et al., (2020). Past Extinctions of Homo Species Coincided with Increased Vulnerability to Climatic Change. One Earth, 3.


Randers, J (2008). Global Collapse – Fact or Fiction?  Futures, 40: 853-864.


Randle, M and Eckersley, (2015). Public Perceptions of Future Threats to Humanity and Different Societal Responses: A Cross-national Study. Futures, 72.


Raskin, P (2014). A Great Transition? Where We Stand. Great Transition Initiative, Oct.


Raudsepp-Hearne, C, et al., (2010).  Untangling the Environmentalist’s Paradox: Why Is Human Well-being Increasing as Ecosystem Services Degrade? Bioscience 60(8): 576-589.


Read, R (2018a). Some Thoughts on ‘Civilisational Succession’. Truth and Power, Feb. 9.


Read, R (2018b).  This Civilisation is Finished: So What is to be Done? IFLAS Occasional Paper 3, University of Cumbria.


Real News Network (2018). Michael Mann: We Are Even Closer To Climate Disaster Than IPCC Predicts. [video]


Rees, M (2014). Existential Risks. Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility. Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Extra Series 41.


Rees,M (2019). Prospects for Humanity. The Long Now Foundation. [video of talk]


Rees, W (2017). Chapter 6. The Roots of Our Crises: Does Human Nature Drive Us Toward Collapse?, in Lerch, D (ed.), The Community Resilience Reader: Essential Resources for an Era of Upheaval. Post Carbon Institute.


Rees, W (2019). End Game: The Economy as Eco-catastrophe and What Needs to Change. Real-World Economics Review, 87.


Rees, W (2019). Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People. The Tyee, Sept. 18.


Rees, W (2019). Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist. The Tyee, Nov. 11.


Rees, W (2019). Memo from a Climate Crisis Realist: The Choice before Us. The Tyee, Nov. 12.


Reid, R (2019). In the Not-so-distant Future, “Synbio” Could Lead to Global Catastrophe—Maybe. Ars Technica, June 18.


Renner, M (2013). Climate Change and Displacements, in Assadourian, E and Prugh, T (eds.), State of the World 2013: Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute.


Rezl, M (2020). Let’s Talk Collapse. [Thorough overview]


Ridley, M (2020). Against Environmental Pessimism. Property and Environment Research Center, 39(1). [Techno-optimism ”free market environmentalism” rebuttal to many environmental tropes. Poorly supported.]


Rigaud, K, Kanta, de Sherbinin, A, Jones, B, Bergmann, J, Clement, V, Ober, K, Schewe, J, Adamo, S, McCusker, B, Heuser, S, and Midgley, A (2018). Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. The World Bank.


Ripple, W, Wolf, C, Galetti, M, Newsome, T, Alamgir, M, Crist, E, Mahmoud, M, Laurance, W (2017). World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice. Bioscience, 67(12).


Ripple, W, Wolf, C and Newson, T (2019). World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency. Bioscience Magazine, (in press).


Roberts, D (2011). The Brutal Logic of Climate Change. Grist, Dec. 6.


Roberts, D (2015). The Awful Truth About Climate Change No One Wants to Admit. Vox, May15.


Roberts, D (2019). This is an Emergency, Damn It. Vox, Feb. 23.


Robinson, K (2013). Is It Too Late?, in Assadourian, E and Prugh, T eds., State of the World 2013: Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute.


Rockstrom, J, Schellnhuber, H, Hoskin B, Ramanathan, V, Schlosser, P, Brasseur, G, Gaffney, O, Nobre, C, Meinshausen, M, Rogelj, J, and Lucht, W (2016). The World's Biggest Gamble. Earth’s Future, 4(10).


Romm, J (2017). We Aren’t Doomed by Climate Change. Right Now we are Choosing to be Doomed. Resilience, July 12.


Rosenberg, P (2020). What Lies Ahead: After the Damage of the Trump Era, Can America Avoid Disaster? Salon, Nov. 22. [Insightful interview with historian Jack Goldstone.]


Sacks, A (2009). The Fallacy of Climate Activism. Grist, Aug. 24.


Samarajiva, I (2020). I Lived Through Collapse. America Is Already There. Medium, Sept. 25.


Sandberg, A (2019). Will Climate Change Cause Humans to Go Extinct? The Conversation, May 29.


Schade, C and Pimentel, D (2010). Population Crash: Prospects for Famine in the Twenty-first Century. Environment Development and Sustainability, 12(2).


Scheffer, M (2016). Anticipating Societal Collapse; Hints from the Stone Age. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(39).


Schuemer-Cross, T and Taylor, B (2009). The Right to Survive: Oxfam International. The Humanitarian Challenge for the Twenty-first Century.


Science and Security Board (2019). 2019 Doomsday Clock Statement - A New Abnormal: It is Still Two Minutes to Midnight. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.


Scranton, R (2019). Lessons from a Genocide Can Prepare Humanity for Climate Apocalypse. MIT Technology Review, April 24.


Seaton, L (2020). Painting Nationalism Green? New Left Review,


Servigne, P and Stevens, R (2020). How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for our Times. Polity Press. [Available as an E-book]


Servigne, P, Stevens, R, Chapelle, G and Rodary, D (2020). Deep Adaptation Opens Up a Necessary Conversation About the Breakdown of Civilization. Open Democracy, Aug. 3.


Shellenburger, M (2020). On Behalf of Environmentalists, I Apologize For The Climate Scare. Environmental Progress, June 29. [Warning – climate change denialism article.  It was posted on Forbes, then they quickly deleted it. It is included here as it provides an opportunity for critique and rebuttal.]


Shenkman, R (2019). The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy. Politico, Sept. 8.


Shepherd, A, Mitchell, T, Lewis, K, Lenhardt, A, Jones, L, Scott, L and Muir-Wood, R (2013). The Geography of Poverty, Disasters and Climate Extremes in 2030. Overseas Development Institute.


Simon, E (2018). Capitalism’s Final Solution Is Nothing Less than Complete Ecological Collapse. History News Network, Oct. 9.


Smaje, C (2020). Collapse: A Helpful Guide for the Perplexed. Resilience, July 27.


Smith, J, Lyons, G and Sauer-Thompson, G (1998). Civilization's Wake: Ecology, Economics and the Roots of Environmental Destruction and Neglect. Population and Environment, 19.


Smith, N (2019). The Need for a Greater Vision: Recognizing Reality. Resilience, Nov. 19.


Smith-Spark, L (2020). Humanity is Waging a 'Suicidal' War on Nature, UN Chief Warns. CNN, Dec. 2.


Snow, D (2018). Mark Lynas's "Six Degrees": A Summary Review. Owlcation, June 23.


Snyder-Beattie, A, Ord, T and Bonsall, M (2019). An Upper Bound for the Background Rate of Human Extinction. Scientific Reports, 9(11054).


Speth, JG (2008).  The Bridge at the Edge of the World. Yale Univ. Press.  Pp: 17-45.


Spinney, L (2012). Human Cycles: History as Science. Nature, 488.!/menu/main/topColumns/topLeftColumn/pdf/488024a.pdf


Spinney, L (2018). End of Days: Is Western Civilisation on the Brink of Collapse? New Scientist, Jan. 17. [A quick overview of the primary scholars on this question.]


Spitzer, S (2019). An Open Letter to Those Who Haven’t Faced Climate Change. Respond to Climate Change, May 13. [A solid overview.]


Spratt, D and Dunlop, I (2017). What Lies Beneath: The Scientific Understatement of Climate Risk. Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration.

Spratt, D and Dunlop, I (2019). Existential Climate-related Security risk: A Scenario Approach. Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration.

Stafford, et al., (2010). Now is the Time for Action: Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems.  Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 52(1): 38-45.

Stafford Smith, M, Horrocks, L, Harvey, A and Hamilton, C (2011). Rethinking Adaptation for a 4°C World. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369(1934).


Steffen, W, et al., (2015). Planetary Boundaries: Guiding Human Development on a Changing Planet. Science, 347(6223).

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene.

Stichele, M (2020). Asia’s Dystopian Future? Why Banks Need to Put Sustainable Finance Clearly in their Sights. Fair Finance Asia.


Stubblefield, C (2018). Managing the Planet: The Anthropocene, Good Stewardship, and the Empty Promise of a Solution to Ecological Crisis. Societies, 8(2).


Tainter, J (1996). Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Society, in Getting Down to Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics. Island Press.


Taylor, K (2017). Sunset for the American Dream. International Journal of Social Economics, 44(12).


Taylor, K (2020). The Passing of Western Civilization. Futures, 122. [A key reading that takes the broad, historical view.]


Tenza, A, Pérez, I, Martínez-Fernández, J and Giménez, A (2017). Understanding the Decline and Resilience Loss of a Long-lived Social-ecological System: Insights from System Dynamics. Ecology and Society, 22(2).


Tharoor, I (2021). The World in 2030 May Be Worse than in 2020. The Washington Post, Jan. 3.


Thunberg, G (2019). You Did Not Act in Time': Greta Thunberg's Full Speech to MPs. The Guardian, April 23.


Tortell, P (2020). Earth 2020: Science, Society, and Sustainability in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,117(16).


Turchin, P (2010). Political Instability May be a Contributor in the Coming Decade. Nature, 463.


Turchin, P (2012). Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780–2010. Journal of Peace Research, 49(4).


Turchin, P (2020). The Impending Crisis. Peter


Turner, G (2014). Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Historical Data. Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Research Paper No. 4.


Tverberg, G (2012). Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Energy, 37(1).


Tverberg, G (2019). The Climate Change Story is Half True. Our Finite World, April 30. [On the more proximal likelihood of economic collapse compared to climate collapse]


United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (2017). Global Land Outlook.


United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (2013). Part 3 – The Consequences of Global Environmental Change for Society, in World Social Science Report 2013: Changing Global Environments.  [With many brief articles on this topic.]


United Nations Environment Programme (2018). Global Environmental Outlook 5.


United Nations Environment Programme (2019a). What is the Outlook for Humanity? [flash type presentation]


United Nations Environment Programme (2019b). Global Environment Outlook 6.


Vaughan-Lee, L (2019). Resilience: Preparing for Social Collapse and Climate Catastrophe. New Story Hub, July 23.


Vorosmarty, C, McIntyre, P, Gessner, M, Dudgeon, D, Prusevich, A, Green, P, Glidden, S, Bunn, S, Sullivan, C, Reidy, C, Liermann, C, and Davies, P (2010). Global Threats to Human Water Security and River Biodiversity. Nature, 467: 555-561.


Vox, L (2017). Existential Threats: American Apocalyptic Beliefs in the Technological Era. University of Pennsylvania Press.


Wallace-Wells, D (2017). The Uninhabitable Earth. New York Magazine, July.


Wallace-Wells, D (2018). UN Says Climate Genocide is Coming. It’s Actually Worse than That. New York Magazine, October 10.


Wallace-Wells, D (2019). The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming. Tim Duggan Books.


Washington, H, Lowe, I and Kopnina, H (2020). Why Do Society and Academia Ignore the ‘Scientists Warning to Humanity’ on population? Journal of Futures Studies, 25(1).


Watts, N, et al., (2018). The 2018 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Shaping the Health of Nations for Centuries to Come. The Lancet, 392 (10163): 2479-2514.


Weidmann, T, Lenzen, M, KeyBer, L and Steinberg, J (2020). Scientists’ Warning on Affluence. Nature Communications, 11(3107).


Weiskel, T (2020). A Chapter In an Ongoing Crisis. Forum (Round 1) on After the Pandemic: Which Future? Great Transition, July.


Weiss, H and Bradley, R (2001). What Drives Societal Collapse? Science, 291. [Examples of climate-driven collapse.]


Werrell, C and Femia, F (2017). Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape of the Anthropocene. The Center for Climate and Security.


Woetzel, J, Pinner, D, Samandari, H, Engel, H, Krishnan, M, Boland, B and Powis, C (2020). Climate Risk and Response: Physical Hazards and Socioeconomic Impacts. McKinsey Global Institute.


Wood, G (2020). The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse. The Atlantic, Nov. 12. [Interview with Peter Turchin. Turchin’s disgruntled response here.


World Economic Forum (2019). The Global Risks Report 2019.


Wyman, P (2020). Why the Pandemic Still Matters. Perspectives: Past, Present and Future, by Patrick Wyman, June 24.


Xu, C, Kohler, T, Lenton, T, Svenning, J and Scheffer, M (2020). Future of the Human Climate Niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (21).


Zak, D (2019). ‘Everything is Not Going to be Okay’: How to Live with Constant Reminders that the Earth is in Trouble. The Washington Post, Jan 24.



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