Bibliography
of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability
VI. Synthesis of Existential Risks and the
Potential for Societal Collapse
Bounce me down to the bibliography
citations
This
bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along
with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t. In this section, the referenced articles look
at the big picture, synthesizing the various problems and trends and projecting
our near future likely outcomes. If you
want to get maximally freaked out, this is your go-to section of the
bibliography.
Many
citations here are of articles from journals that are listed in italics, meaning they have gone through
a peer review process. These are collected in the second subsection of this page, along with links to books and
meatier reports sponsored by government agencies and NGOs. The third subsection features essays from blogs,
news magazine analyses, op eds, and other think pieces. The first subsection offers links to web sites
that feature their own collections of resources on existential risks and the
potential for societal collapse. Regardless
of subsection, the citations lead to analyses of what the future holds, though
few are modeling or statistics-heavy studies.
Instead, these are articles/books/videos/essays/reports where authors
are sharing their evaluation based on a synthesis of many studies and their gut
feelings about our state of affairs and what they portend. Accordingly, these articles should be
considered as speculative.
There
are > 300 articles in this section written by even more authors. What is striking is the similarity of the
take home messages in the lot, regardless of publication venue or author
background. There is a growing, dark consensus here in the second decade of the
21st century. An ever-increasing segment of the climate scientists,
environmental scientists, social scientists, science beat journalists, etc. have looked squarely upon what we have wrought here
in the Anthropocene, in large part via their own review of the literature
represented in the first 4 sections of this bibliography, and have concluded that
our growth-at-all-costs capitalistic society will not be sustained. It should be concerning that so many people,
with their reputations on the line, are writing about the likelihood of
societal collapse in this century.
But
hey, maybe these authors have it all wrong.
Theirs is still, seemingly, a minority view. Maybe they are wrong because their views
reflect a vast conspiracy in the scientific community to usher in a leftist
autocracy, as some on the right would have you believe. Maybe they are wrong because they foolishly
have insufficient faith in the clever power of free markets, laissez faire
politics, plutocracy, and technological innovation to overcome any resource
limits, climate instability, or massive population shifts. Maybe they are wrong because climate change
and the elimination of the planet’s diversity just isn’t a concern.
The
previous paragraph is more than a little facetious. I dismiss these arguments
as the products of motivated reasoning.1,
2,
3 Section
III of this bibliography contains links to many articles that dismantle
these arguments in a variety of ways, including the simple application of
facts. But it is certainly fair to question just how justified are the gloomier
prognostications of the articles cited below. After all, every generation has
its doomsayers and yet we have been experiencing more or less continual
economic growth, technological development, and intertwining globalization for
centuries.
It
is also fair to wonder about the degree to which the authors represented in
this section may be biased by their own motivated reasoning as well. What might
motivate a rational person to conclude that society as we know it is destined
to collapse, aside from troubling
data and trends? Why is there an
apparent surge in apocalyptic thinking among people concerned with the
environment and social justice?4,
5, 6 To
some extent, this could come from an epidemic of despair over the failure of
attempts to significantly reform our socio-economic system.7, 8 Or perhaps characterizing our challenge as
potentially apocalyptic enables activists to better sell the urgency of their
cause and position themselves as the heroic protagonist.9,
10
There
is also an apparent romantic (or perhaps just exhausted) yearning within the
environmental community for a more decentralized, pastoral, and communal
lifestyle, which may well end up being the best-case scenario for fortunate regions on the other side of
significant economic and political collapse. There are many advocates of
eco-communalism as the way forward within the sustainability community.5,
11
There
may also be something more subconscious influencing some doomsayers. If you reach the conclusion that we are
embedded in a system that is horrifically damaging, unjust, beyond democratic
control, and inherently pathological, you just might find some hidden comfort
in a narrative where it is destined to fall in relatively short order. In this
narrative, you no longer have any responsibility to do anything to fix a doomed
and irredeemable system. It’s going to happen and you can bide your time while
continuing to participate in a system you can simultaneously disavow.12 This is essentially the fatalistic take of
Jonathan Franzen in his 9/8/19 essay in The
New Yorker magazine that received so much pushback during the week I wrote this
preface.13
None
of this is to say, however, that the assessments projecting possible societal collapse
within this century are easily dismissed, regardless of any motivated reasoning
that may lurk in the hearts of the authors. Sometimes the data does support a conclusion that echoes
your preconceptions. Civilizations do collapse and there is little reason
to think that ours is immune to the stresses that have taken out so many
previous grand societies. Meanwhile, we are facing an additional, unique set of
serious challenges on a horrifying time table as detailed in sections I,
II,
III
and IV. Collapsed is not an inappropriate description
right now for the status of countries like Yemen and Venezuela and it certainly
seems like the world is becoming more unstable.14,
15,
16
Ultimately, however, it is up to you – the judicious reader – to decide whether
the conclusions of the articles in this section are justified or not.
Many
people have been performing this exact evaluation and section
VII of this bibliography (Activisim, Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of
Confronting the “Traumacene”) shares articles
relating the impacts this process is having on those who feel that our future
prospects are grim indeed. As is apparent via the articles of section
VII, there is a groundswell of environmental anxiety, grief, and alarm to
the extent that children are protesting in the streets,17, 18
women are swearing off having children,19,
20
the trending climate activism group
is called Extinction Rebellion, and the
psychiatric community is grappling with a whole new kind of PTSD. 21,
22
If
you are looking for some solace, you can see how the collapse outcome isn’t
explicitly included in most of the scenario analyses of the articles shared in section
V, though it is a potential trajectory in the
Great Transitions
analysis. Also, section
XII (Hopeful Resources – On Hope,
Activism, and Examples of Positive Change) contains many resources meant to
alleviate the despair and paralysis from feeling that a dystopian future is in
the cards. For example, there are links
in that section to many groups one could support in their fight against a
darker future, along with tales of success and the power of hope. In that vein, section
VIII (Conservation, Restoration, Mitigation,
Adaptation à Resilience)
shares articles on many varied efforts, both occurring and proposed, to foster
resilience and thus shore up society in some recognizable form. Section
XI (Sustainability Manifestos),
on the other hand, provides links to numerous proposals for more
transformative, just, and sustainable reformations of culture and
socio-economics that we can implement to either avoid outright collapse or use
as guides in the aftermath of non-apocalyptic forms of collapse. And yes, there are movements afoot to prepare
for and soften any imminent collapse.23, 24, 25, 26
I have written all of the above to prepare you
- to inoculate you - prior to reading the articles cited below. They aren’t likely to sit well unless you are
craving some confirmation of your own preconceived dystopian fears. Professors and teachers of all levels may
want to start with Jem Bendell’s landmark paper
as he is writing specifically to his fellow academics and he has followed it up
by establishing a community (grown to >10,000 participants in just 6 months)
to discuss how best to adapt to collapse.27,
28
If reading these
articles are making you despair, take a break and deflect with a
laugh. Still too dark? Ok, try this
one. Not making you feel better? Go full absurd here.
A. |
|
|
B. |
||
C. |
?? (2021). Collapse.
Annuel.net. https://www.annuel.nl/collapse/
[Links to many books of relevance to Collapse, nicely categorized.]
Alliance of World
Scientists (2021). Alliance of World Scientists (AWS) Social Media Toolkit.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1n_-_m7I93-SojNJfq0GRgPWy4EKnGbjPexu8inPhqDk/edit [A series of very short blurbs highlighting different
troubling statistics and trends.]
Anna,
J (2021). Collapse? L’Archipel Du Vivant. https://archipelduvivant.org/ressources/fiches-pedagogiques/effondrement/
The Anthropocene Dashboard. https://theanthropocenedashboard.com/ [“We are
gathering important metrics of the global geophysical changes that characterize
the Anthropocene and putting them in one place.”]
Bendell,
J (2019b). Compendium of Research
Reports on Climate Chaos and Impacts. Institute for Leadership and
Sustainability, July 7. https://iflas.blogspot.com/2019/07/compendium-of-research-reports-on.html
ClimateClock.World
(2021). The Climate Clock. https://climateclock.world/
Effondrement
& Renaissance (2021). Global Collapse, How? https://www.effondrementetrenaissance.com/comment
[Collection of articles and videos on the subject, most in French.]
Hatcher, B (2019). Resource
Links and Lexicon for Ecovillage and Intentional Community Design.
Hermetica.info. https://www.hermetica.info/EcoLink.htm
Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere
(2019). Responding to the Human
Predicament. Reducing the Threat of a
Shattering Collapse of Civilization. https://mahb.stanford.edu/ [An impressive collection of articles with
frequent additions.]
The Next System Project (2019). The Index of Systemic Trends. https://thenextsystem.org/learn/stories/index-systemic-trends
Peak Prosperity (2014). The Crash Course. https://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/ [Breaks it down into a series of 26 videos.]
Portail de Collapsologie (2021a). Better Understanding the Risks of
Societal and Ecological Collapses. https://www.collapsologie.fr/fr/ [Links to many, many books and articles.]
Portail de Collapsologie (2021b).
Science Database. https://www.collapsologie.fr/en/science/
Post Carbon
Institute (2010). The Post Carbon Reader:
Managing the 21st Century's Sustainability Crises. https://www.scribd.com/lists/3724981/The-Post-Carbon-Reader-Managing-the-21st-Century-s-Sustainability-Crises-2010 [30 essays by “some of the most provocative
thinkers on the key issues shaping our new century, from renewable energy and
urban agriculture to social justice and community resilience.”]
Post
Carbon Institute and Anthropocene Actions (2020). The Great Unraveling. https://www.postcarbon.org/great-unraveling/?mc_cid=dadf076686&mc_eid=0bca9c3843
[A series of video interviews and a videotaped event with a presentation and a
panel discussion.]
Post Doom (2021). Resources. https://postdoom.com/resources/
B. Peer Review Articles, Books,
and More Scholarly Resources
Ahmed, N (2017). Failing States,
Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political
Violence. Springer International Pub. https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319478142
or https://www.worldcat.org/title/failing-states-collapsing-systems-biophysical-triggers-of-political-violence/oclc/1120608422?referer=br&ht=edition
Alexander, S
(2015). Voluntary Simplification as an
Alternative to Collapse, in
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American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014). What We
Know: The Realities, Risks and Response to Climate Change. http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf
Angus, I (2012). The
Spectre of 21st Century Barbarism. Climate &
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Arias-Maldonado,
M (2019). Humanity as a Political Subject in the Anthropocene: From
Planetary Subjectivity to Global Sovereignty. Kosmos
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Atwoli, L et al.,
(2021). Call for Emergency Action to Limit Global Temperature Increases,
Restore Biodiversity, and Protect Health. The Lancet, Sept. 4. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01915-2
Bardi, U, Falsini, S and Perissi, I (2019). Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse: A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model of the Diminishing Returns of Complexity. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-018-0049-0
Barnosky, A and 16 co-authors (2014). Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: Information for Policy Makers. Stanford University. https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/see-scientific-consensus/consensus_english.pdf
Barnosky, A, Ehrlich, P
and Hadly, E (2016). Avoiding Collapse: Grand Challenges for Science and Society to Solve by
2050. Elementa: Science of the
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Barnosky, et al.,
(2012). Approaching a State
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Barnosky, et al., (2013). Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century.
Consensus for Action, Stanford University. http://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/see-scientific-consensus/consensus_english_final-2.pdf
Barnosky,
A et al., (2014). Introducing the Scientific Consensus on Maintaining
Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: Information for Policy
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Battistoni, A (2014). Kata and/or Streiphen?:
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Baum, S (2015). The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives. Futures, 72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.001
Baum, S (2018). Resilience to
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Baum, S and Barrett, A (2018). Global
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Baum, S, Ekenstedt,
T, Häggström, O, Hanson, R, Kuhlemann,
K, Maas, M, Miller, J, Salmela, M, Sandberg, A, Sotala, K, Torres, P, Turchin, A
and Yampolskiy, R (2019). Long-Term Trajectories
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Baum, S and Tonn,
B (eds.) (2015). Confronting Future
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[Leads
to several related articles]
Beard, S (2017). Climate Change and the Worst-Case Scenario. Institute for Public Policy Research. https://www.ippr.org/juncture-item/climate-change-and-the-worst-case-scenario
Bendell, J (2018). Deep
Adaptation: Navigating Climate Tragedy.
Institute for Leadership and Sustainability Occasional Paper 2. http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf
Bendell,
J et al., (2020). International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and
Collapse. Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability, University of
Cumbria. http://iflas.blogspot.com/2020/12/international-scholars-warning-on.html
Benner, A, Rothe,
D, Ullstrom, S and Stripple,
J (2019). Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction-Politics.
Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, Research Report #001. https://ifsh.de/file/publication/Research_Report/191218_IFSH_Research_Report_Web.pdf
Bernado, J (2010). Global Crisis and the
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L. (eds) Studies in Human Ecology. Belgian-Vietnamese Cooperation. Pdf
Besley, T and Peters, M (2019). Life
and Death in the Anthropocene: Educating for Survival Amid Climate and
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Biggs, D, Biggs, R, Dakos,
B, Scholes, R and Schoon, M (2011). Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated
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Binghampton University (2021). Resilience,
Not Collapse: What the Easter Island Myth Gets Wrong. Phys.org, July 13. https://phys.org/news/2021-07-resilience-collapse-easter-island-myth.html
Blanton, R, Feinman, G, Kowalewski, S and Fargher, L
(2020). Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From
the Past. Frontiers in Political Science, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2020.568704
Boggs, C (2016). Human Niche
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Bohmelt, T
(2017). Employing the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Predict CO2 Emissions.
Environmental Science & Policy, 75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.002 [“None
of the five SSP scenarios is linked to emission patterns that would suggest
achieving the 2 °C goal is realistic.’]
Bologna, M and Aquino, G (2020). Deforestation
and World Population Sustainability: A Quantitative Analysis. Scientific
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Bonneuil, C and Fressoz,
J (2016). The Shock of the Anthropocene:
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Bostrom, N (2002). Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related
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Bostrom, N (2013). Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority. Global Policy, 4(1). https://www.existential-risk.org/concept.html [See Figure 6. Academic Prioritization, with dung beetle papers dwarfing those on human extinction.]
Bostrom, N (2019). The Vulnerable
World Hypothesis. Global Policy,
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Bostrom, N
and Cirkovic, M (2008). Introduction, in Bostrom,
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Bradford, J
(2019). The Future is Rural: Food System
Adaptations to the Great Simplification. Post Carbon Institute. https://www.postcarbon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-Future-Is-Rural-2019.pdf
Bradshaw, C et
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Smith, M (2012). State of the Planet
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Brons, L (2018). Stages of the Anthropocene. F=ma, Dec. 8. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/stages-of-the-anthropocene/ [Includes a thorough takedown of
the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) used in climate modeling of
alternative futures.]
Brons, L (2019a). No Time for Utopia.
F=ma, Feb. 19. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/no-time-for-utopia/
Brons, L (2019b). On the Fragility
of Civilization. F=ma, March 19. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/on-the-fragility-of-civilization/
Brons, L (2019c). A Theory of
Disaster-Driven Societal Collapse and How to Prevent It. F=ma, Sept. 26. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/a-theory-of-disaster-driven-societal-collapse-and-how-to-prevent-it/ [More of a scholarly research
paper, with an interesting foreward.”]
Brosig, M, Frawley, P, Hill, A, Jahn, M,Mrsicek, M, Paris, A, Rose, M, Shambaljamts,
A and Thomas, N (2019). Implications of
Climate Change for the U.S. Army. U.S. Army War College. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf
Brown, J et al.,
(2011). Energetic Limits to Economic Growth. Bioscience, 61(1). https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.1.7
Bruno, J (2019).
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Burger, J and
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Butler, C
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Butler, C
(2018). Climate Change, Health and Existential
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Butzer,
K (2012). Collapse, Environment, and Society. Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, 109(10). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109 [Includes
useful graphic of a model for what can lead to collapse or stabilization and
reconstruction.]
Buxton, N and Hayes, B (eds.) (2015). The Secure and the Dispossessed
- How the Military and Corporations are Shaping a Climate-Changed World. The
Transnational Institute. Publishers site: https://www.tni.org/en/publication/the-secure-and-the-dispossessed Full text for free: https://www.academia.edu/40078378/Secure_and_dispossessed_How_the_Military_and_Corporations_are_Shaping_a_Climate_Changed_World [“examines the
military and corporations' strategies in the context of climate change to
secure wealth for those who have it while further dispossessing those who will
be most affected by climate change.”]
Campbell, K,
Gulledge, J, McNeill, J, Podesta, J, Ogden, P, Fuerth,
L, Woolsey, RJ, Lennon, A, Smith, J, Weitz, R and Mix, D (2007). The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy
and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change. Center for
Strategic and International Studies. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf
Capellan-Perez, I, Mediavilla, M, de Castro, C, Carpintero,
O and Miguel, L (2015). More Growth? An
Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change.
Sustainability Science, 10. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-015-0299-3
Catton, W (1982). Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary
Change. University of Illinois Press, Urbana. https://monoskop.org/images/9/92/Catton_Jr_William_R_Overshoot_The_Ecological_Basis_of_Revolutionary_Change.pdf [Note the date of publication.]
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
(2020). Our Research. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/
Centre for the Study of
Existential Risk (2020). Extreme Risks and the Global Environment. University
of Cambridge. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/extreme-risks-and-global-environment/
[Web site leading to many articles.]
Clark, H (2020). A Future for the World’s
Children? A WHO-UNICEF-Lancet Commission. The Lancet Commissions,
395(10224). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32540-1
Coates,
G (2013). Sustainable Urbanism: Creating Resilient Communities in the Age of
Peak Oil and Climate Destabilization, in Wallimann,
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[Chapter
in a book.]
Collins, A, Florin, M and Sachs, R
(2021). Risk Governance and the Low-carbon Transition. EPFL
International Risk Governance Center. https://www.epfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/reports/
The Commission for the Human Future (2020). Surviving and Thriving in the 21st
Century. https://humanfuture.net/sites/default/files/CHF_Roundtable_Report_March_2020.pdf
Connor, R, Talafre,
J, Hasan, E and Abolina, E (2015a). Unsustainable Growth, in The United Nations World Water Development Report
2015: Water for a Sustainable World. World Water Assessment Programme,
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Costanza, R, Graumlich,
L, Steffen, W, Crumley, C, Dearing, J, Hibbard, K, Leemans,
R, Redman, C and Schimel, D (2007). Sustainability
or Collapse: What Can We Learn from Integrating the History of Humans and the
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[Underscores the difficulty of meeting required targets.]
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[Insightful interview with historian Jack Goldstone.]
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Updated – June 16, 2022