Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability

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VI.     Synthesis of Existential Risks and the Potential for Societal Collapse

Bounce me down to the bibliography citations

What’s Here

This bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t.  In this section, the referenced articles look at the big picture, synthesizing the various problems and trends and projecting our near future likely outcomes.  If you want to get maximally freaked out, this is your go-to section of the bibliography.

Many citations here are of articles from journals that are listed in italics, meaning they have gone through a peer review process. These are collected in the second subsection of this page, along with links to books and meatier reports sponsored by government agencies and NGOs. The third subsection features essays from blogs, news magazine analyses, op eds, and other think pieces. The first subsection offers links to web sites that feature their own collections of resources on existential risks and the potential for societal collapse.  Regardless of subsection, the citations lead to analyses of what the future holds, though few are modeling or statistics-heavy studies.  Instead, these are articles/books/videos/essays/reports where authors are sharing their evaluation based on a synthesis of many studies and their gut feelings about our state of affairs and what they portend.  Accordingly, these articles should be considered as speculative.

There are > 300 articles in this section written by even more authors.  What is striking is the similarity of the take home messages in the lot, regardless of publication venue or author background. There is a growing, dark consensus here in the second decade of the 21st century. An ever-increasing segment of the climate scientists, environmental scientists, social scientists, science beat journalists, etc. have looked squarely upon what we have wrought here in the Anthropocene, in large part via their own review of the literature represented in the first 4 sections of this bibliography, and have concluded that our growth-at-all-costs capitalistic society will not be sustained.  It should be concerning that so many people, with their reputations on the line, are writing about the likelihood of societal collapse in this century.

But hey, maybe these authors have it all wrong.  Theirs is still, seemingly, a minority view.  Maybe they are wrong because their views reflect a vast conspiracy in the scientific community to usher in a leftist autocracy, as some on the right would have you believe.  Maybe they are wrong because they foolishly have insufficient faith in the clever power of free markets, laissez faire politics, plutocracy, and technological innovation to overcome any resource limits, climate instability, or massive population shifts.  Maybe they are wrong because climate change and the elimination of the planet’s diversity just isn’t a concern.

The previous paragraph is more than a little facetious. I dismiss these arguments as the products of motivated reasoning.1, 2, 3  Section III of this bibliography contains links to many articles that dismantle these arguments in a variety of ways, including the simple application of facts. But it is certainly fair to question just how justified are the gloomier prognostications of the articles cited below. After all, every generation has its doomsayers and yet we have been experiencing more or less continual economic growth, technological development, and intertwining globalization for centuries. 

It is also fair to wonder about the degree to which the authors represented in this section may be biased by their own motivated reasoning as well. What might motivate a rational person to conclude that society as we know it is destined to collapse, aside from troubling data and trends?  Why is there an apparent surge in apocalyptic thinking among people concerned with the environment and social justice?4, 5, 6  To some extent, this could come from an epidemic of despair over the failure of attempts to significantly reform our socio-economic system.7, 8  Or perhaps characterizing our challenge as potentially apocalyptic enables activists to better sell the urgency of their cause and position themselves as the heroic protagonist.9, 10

There is also an apparent romantic (or perhaps just exhausted) yearning within the environmental community for a more decentralized, pastoral, and communal lifestyle, which may well end up being the best-case scenario for fortunate regions on the other side of significant economic and political collapse. There are many advocates of eco-communalism as the way forward within the sustainability community.5, 11 

There may also be something more subconscious influencing some doomsayers.  If you reach the conclusion that we are embedded in a system that is horrifically damaging, unjust, beyond democratic control, and inherently pathological, you just might find some hidden comfort in a narrative where it is destined to fall in relatively short order. In this narrative, you no longer have any responsibility to do anything to fix a doomed and irredeemable system. It’s going to happen and you can bide your time while continuing to participate in a system you can simultaneously disavow.12  This is essentially the fatalistic take of Jonathan Franzen in his 9/8/19 essay in The New Yorker magazine that received so much pushback during the week I wrote this preface.13  

None of this is to say, however, that the assessments projecting possible societal collapse within this century are easily dismissed, regardless of any motivated reasoning that may lurk in the hearts of the authors. Sometimes the data does support a conclusion that echoes your preconceptions.  Civilizations do collapse and there is little reason to think that ours is immune to the stresses that have taken out so many previous grand societies. Meanwhile, we are facing an additional, unique set of serious challenges on a horrifying time table as detailed in sections I, II, III and IV.  Collapsed is not an inappropriate description right now for the status of countries like Yemen and Venezuela and it certainly seems like the world is becoming more unstable.14, 15, 16 Ultimately, however, it is up to you – the judicious reader – to decide whether the conclusions of the articles in this section are justified or not. 

Many people have been performing this exact evaluation and section VII of this bibliography (Activisim, Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of Confronting the “Traumacene”) shares articles relating the impacts this process is having on those who feel that our future prospects are grim indeed. As is apparent via the articles of section VII, there is a groundswell of environmental anxiety, grief, and alarm to the extent that children are protesting in the streets,17, 18 women are swearing off having children,19, 20 the trending climate activism group is called Extinction Rebellion, and the psychiatric community is grappling with a whole new kind of PTSD. 21, 22 

If you are looking for some solace, you can see how the collapse outcome isn’t explicitly included in most of the scenario analyses of the articles shared in section V, though it is a potential trajectory in the Great Transitions analysis. Also, section XII (Hopeful Resources – On Hope, Activism, and Examples of Positive Change) contains many resources meant to alleviate the despair and paralysis from feeling that a dystopian future is in the cards.  For example, there are links in that section to many groups one could support in their fight against a darker future, along with tales of success and the power of hope.  In that vein, section VIII (Conservation, Restoration, Mitigation,  Adaptation à Resilience) shares articles on many varied efforts, both occurring and proposed, to foster resilience and thus shore up society in some recognizable form.  Section XI (Sustainability Manifestos), on the other hand, provides links to numerous proposals for more transformative, just, and sustainable reformations of culture and socio-economics that we can implement to either avoid outright collapse or use as guides in the aftermath of non-apocalyptic forms of collapse.  And yes, there are movements afoot to prepare for and soften any imminent collapse.23, 24, 25, 26

I have written all of the above to prepare you - to inoculate you - prior to reading the articles cited below.  They aren’t likely to sit well unless you are craving some confirmation of your own preconceived dystopian fears.  Professors and teachers of all levels may want to start with Jem Bendell’s landmark paper as he is writing specifically to his fellow academics and he has followed it up by establishing a community (grown to >10,000 participants in just 6 months) to discuss how best to adapt to collapse.27, 28

 

If reading these articles are making you despair, take a break and deflect with a laugh. Still too dark? Ok, try this one. Not making you feel better? Go full absurd here.

Subsections

 

A.

Collections

 

B.

Peer Review Articles, Books, and More Scholarly Resources

C.

Journalism and Think Pieces

 

 

Citations

       

A. Collections

 

?? (2021). Collapse. Annuel.net. https://www.annuel.nl/collapse/ [Links to many books of relevance to Collapse, nicely categorized.]

 

Alliance of World Scientists (2021). Alliance of World Scientists (AWS) Social Media Toolkit. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1n_-_m7I93-SojNJfq0GRgPWy4EKnGbjPexu8inPhqDk/edit [A series of very short blurbs highlighting different troubling statistics and trends.]

 

Anna, J (2021). Collapse? L’Archipel Du Vivant. https://archipelduvivant.org/ressources/fiches-pedagogiques/effondrement/

 

Bendell, J (2019b). Compendium of Research Reports on Climate Chaos and Impacts. Institute for Leadership and Sustainability, July 7.  https://iflas.blogspot.com/2019/07/compendium-of-research-reports-on.html

 

Effondrement & Renaissance (2021). Global Collapse, How? https://www.effondrementetrenaissance.com/comment [Collection of articles and videos on the subject, most in French.]

 

Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (2019). Responding to the Human Predicament.  Reducing the Threat of a Shattering Collapse of Civilization. https://mahb.stanford.edu/  [An impressive collection of articles with frequent additions.]

 

The Next System Project (2019). The Index of Systemic Trends. https://thenextsystem.org/learn/stories/index-systemic-trends

 

Peak Prosperity (2014). The Crash Course. https://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/ [Breaks it down into a series of 26 videos.]

 

Portail de Collapsologie (2021a). Better Understanding the Risks of Societal and Ecological Collapses. https://www.collapsologie.fr/fr/ [Links to many, many books and articles.]

 

Portail de Collapsologie (2021b). Science Database. https://www.collapsologie.fr/en/science/

 

Post Carbon Institute (2010). The Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21st Century's Sustainability Crises. https://www.scribd.com/lists/3724981/The-Post-Carbon-Reader-Managing-the-21st-Century-s-Sustainability-Crises-2010 [30 essays by “some of the most provocative thinkers on the key issues shaping our new century, from renewable energy and urban agriculture to social justice and community resilience.”]

 

Post Carbon Institute and Anthropocene Actions (2020).  The Great Unraveling. https://www.postcarbon.org/great-unraveling/?mc_cid=dadf076686&mc_eid=0bca9c3843 [A series of video interviews and a videotaped event with a presentation and a panel discussion.]

 

Post Doom (2021). Resources. https://postdoom.com/resources/

 

 

 

B.  Peer Review Articles, Books, and More Scholarly Resources

 

Ahmed, N (2017). Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence. Springer International Pub. https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319478142 or https://www.worldcat.org/title/failing-states-collapsing-systems-biophysical-triggers-of-political-violence/oclc/1120608422?referer=br&ht=edition

 

Alexander, S (2015). Voluntary Simplification as an Alternative to Collapse, in Prosperous Descent. Simplicity Institute Publishing. http://samuelalexander.info/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Voluntary-Simplification-as-an-Alternative-to-Collapse-Samuel-Alexander-1.pdf

 

American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014). What We Know: The Realities, Risks and Response to Climate Change. http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf

 

Bardi, U, Falsini, S and Perissi, I (2019). Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse: A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model of the Diminishing Returns of Complexity. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-018-0049-0

 

Barnosky, A and 16 co-authors (2014). Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: Information for Policy Makers. Stanford University. https://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/see-scientific-consensus/consensus_english.pdf  

 

Barnosky, A, Ehrlich, P and Hadly, E (2016). Avoiding Collapse: Grand Challenges for Science and Society to Solve by 2050. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 4. https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.12952/journal.elementa.000094/

 

Barnosky, et al., (2012). Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere. Nature, 486: 52-58.  http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/full/nature11018.html

 

Barnosky, et al., (2013). Maintaining Humanity’s Life Support Systems in the 21st Century. Consensus for Action, Stanford University. http://consensusforaction.stanford.edu/see-scientific-consensus/consensus_english_final-2.pdf

 

Baum, S (2015). The Far Future Argument for Confronting Catastrophic Threats to Humanity: Practical Significance and Alternatives. Futures, 72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.001

 

Baum, S (2018). Resilience to Global Catastrophe, in Trump, B, Florin, M and Linkov, I (Eds.). IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience (Vol. 2): Domains of Resilience for Complex Interconnected Systems. EPFL International Risk Governance Center. https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/262527?ln=en

 

Baum, S and Barrett, A (2018). Global Catastrophes: The Most Extreme Risks, in Bier, V (ed.) Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding, Mitigating, and Managing. New York: Routledge, pages 174-184. http://gcrinstitute.org/papers/034_extreme.pdf

 

Baum, S, Ekenstedt, T, Häggström, O, Hanson, R, Kuhlemann, K, Maas, M, Miller, J, Salmela, M, Sandberg, A, Sotala, K, Torres, P, Turchin, A and Yampolskiy, R (2019). Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization. Foresight, 21(1). https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037/full/html

 

Baum, S and Tonn, B (eds.) (2015). Confronting Future Catastrophic Threats to Humanity [Special issue]. Futures, 72. http://sethbaum.com/ac/2015_CatastrophicThreats.html [Leads to several related articles]

 

Beard, S (2017). Climate Change and the Worst-Case Scenario. Institute for Public Policy Research. https://www.ippr.org/juncture-item/climate-change-and-the-worst-case-scenario

 

Bendell, J (2018).  Deep Adaptation: Navigating Climate Tragedy.  Institute for Leadership and Sustainability Occasional Paper 2. http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf

 

Bendell, J et al., (2020). International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse. Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability, University of Cumbria. http://iflas.blogspot.com/2020/12/international-scholars-warning-on.html

 

Bernado, J (2010). Global Crisis and the Uncertain Future, in Pires I, Gibert, M and Hens, L. (eds) Studies in Human Ecology. Belgian-Vietnamese Cooperation. Pdf 

 

Besley, T and Peters, M (2019). Life and Death in the Anthropocene: Educating for Survival Amid Climate and Ecosystem Changes and Potential Civilisation Collapse. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 52(13). https://doi.org/10.1080/00131857.2019.1684804

 

Biggs, D, Biggs, R, Dakos, B, Scholes, R and Schoon, M (2011). Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises? Ecology and Society, 16(2). https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art27/

 

Blanton, R, Feinman, G, Kowalewski, S and Fargher, L (2020). Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past. Frontiers in Political Science, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2020.568704

 

Bohmelt, T (2017). Employing the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Predict CO2 Emissions. Environmental Science & Policy, 75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.002 [“None of the five SSP scenarios is linked to emission patterns that would suggest achieving the 2 °C goal is realistic.’]

 

Bologna, M and Aquino, G (2020). Deforestation and World Population Sustainability: A Quantitative Analysis. Scientific Reports, 10(7631). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6

 

Bostrom, N (2002). Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazard. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9(1). https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.pdf

 

Bostrom, N and Cirkovic, M (2008). Introduction, in Bostrom, N and Cirkovic, M [eds.] Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press. http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/Chap01.pdf

 

Bradford, J (2019). The Future is Rural: Food System Adaptations to the Great Simplification. Post Carbon Institute. https://www.postcarbon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-Future-Is-Rural-2019.pdf

 

Bradshaw, C et al., (2021). Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future. Frontiers in Conservation Science, . https://doi.org/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419

 

Brito, L and Smith, M (2012). State of the Planet Declaration. Planet Under Pressure Conference: New Knowledge Towards Solutions. http://www.igbp.net/publications/stateoftheplanetdeclaration.4.6b007aff13cb59eff6411baa.html

 

Brons, L (2018). Stages of the Anthropocene. F=ma, Dec. 8. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/stages-of-the-anthropocene/ [Includes a thorough takedown of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) used in climate modeling of alternative futures.]

 

Brons, L (2019a). No Time for Utopia. F=ma, Feb. 19. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/no-time-for-utopia/

 

Brons, L (2019b). On the Fragility of Civilization. F=ma, March 19. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/on-the-fragility-of-civilization/

 

Brons, L (2019c). A Theory of Disaster-Driven Societal Collapse and How to Prevent It. F=ma, Sept. 26. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/a-theory-of-disaster-driven-societal-collapse-and-how-to-prevent-it/ [More of a scholarly research paper, with an interesting foreward.”]

 

Brosig, M, Frawley, P, Hill, A, Jahn, M,Mrsicek, M, Paris, A, Rose, M, Shambaljamts, A and Thomas, N (2019). Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army. U.S. Army War College. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf

 

Brown, J et al., (2011). Energetic Limits to Economic Growth. Bioscience, 61(1). https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.1.7

 

Burger, J and 10 co-authors (2012). The Macroecology of Sustainability. PLoS Biology, 10(6): https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001345

 

Butler, C (2016). Sounding the Alarm: Health in the Anthropocene. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(7). https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/7/665/htm

 

Butler, C (2017). Limits to Growth, Planetary Boundaries, and Planetary Health. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 25: 59-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.08.002

 

Butler, C (2018). Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(10). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6210172/

 

Butzer, K (2012). Collapse, Environment, and Society. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(10). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109 [Includes useful graphic of a model for what can lead to collapse or stabilization and reconstruction.]

 

Campbell, K, Gulledge, J, McNeill, J, Podesta, J, Ogden, P, Fuerth, L, Woolsey, RJ, Lennon, A, Smith, J, Weitz, R and Mix, D (2007). The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf

 

Capellan-Perez, I, Mediavilla, M, de Castro, C, Carpintero, O and Miguel, L (2015). More Growth? An Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change. Sustainability Science, 10. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-015-0299-3

 

Catton, W (1982). Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. University of Illinois Press, Urbana. https://monoskop.org/images/9/92/Catton_Jr_William_R_Overshoot_The_Ecological_Basis_of_Revolutionary_Change.pdf [Note the date of publication.]

 

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (2020). Our Research. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/

 

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (2020). Extreme Risks and the Global Environment. University of Cambridge. https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/extreme-risks-and-global-environment/  [Web site leading to many articles.]

 

Coates, G (2013). Sustainable Urbanism: Creating Resilient Communities in the Age of Peak Oil and Climate Destabilization, in Wallimann, I (ed.), Environmental Policy is Social Policy – Social Policy is EnvironmentalPolicy: Toward Sustainability Policy. Springer Science+Business Media, NY. https://www.academia.edu/8040731/Sustainable_Urbanism_Creating_Resilient_Communities_in_the_Age_of_Peak_Oil_and_Climate_Destabilization?email_work_card=title [Chapter in a book.]

 

Collins, A, Florin, M and Sachs, R (2021). Risk Governance and the Low-carbon Transition. EPFL International Risk Governance Center. https://www.epfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/reports/

 

The Commission for the Human Future (2020). Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century. https://humanfuture.net/sites/default/files/CHF_Roundtable_Report_March_2020.pdf

 

Connor, R, Talafre, J, Hasan, E and Abolina, E (2015a). Unsustainable Growth, in The United Nations World Water Development Report 2015: Water for a Sustainable World. World Water Assessment Programme, UNESCO. Pp. 1-14. http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0023/002318/231823E.pdf 

 

Costanza, R, Graumlich, L, Steffen, W, Crumley, C, Dearing, J, Hibbard, K, Leemans, R, Redman, C and Schimel, D (2007). Sustainability or Collapse: What Can We Learn from Integrating the History of Humans and the Rest of Nature? AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment, 36(7). https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[522:SOCWCW]2.0.CO;2

 

Cumming, G and Peterson, G (2017). Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32(9). https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cumming2017_UnifyingResearchonSocial-EcologicalResilience.pdf [Thorough overview.]

 

Curtis, F (2009). Peak Globalization: Climate Change, Oil Depletion and Global Trade. Ecological Economics, 69(2): 427-434. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800909003334

 

Dalio, R (2020). The Changing World Order. Principles.com. https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/ [Online book looking at the patterns associated with the rise and fall of Empires, with an emphasis on the ongoing decline of the USA.]

 

DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012). Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2nd Edition: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet. Fundación DARA Internacional. https://daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/CVM2-Low.pdf

 

Degroot, D et al. (2021). Towards a Rigorous Understanding of Societal Responses to Climate Change. Nature, 591. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03190-2.epdf?sharing_token=OCYHV4gBg7kd4Xad4KxS39RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MKipkT5GQppdWkxXpf-pfiVfyvE1rIgQIFvw4DGSZAN7mZjG0Jlj37rs4AE5SLpF_OIKt-yPK2IGkoQdUAowEX9GJdou9oySetJvlOoCtkgqrVNTTWxKVg9tiuaifdiss%3D

 

Diamond, J (2003). Why Societies Collapse. TED. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis [19 minute video]

 

Diamond, J (2005).  Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking Penguin.

 

Dunbar, R, Zebrowski, C and Olsson, P (2020). Is Humanity Doomed Because We Can’t Plan for the Long Term? Three Experts Discuss. The Conversation, Aug. 5. https://theconversation.com/is-humanity-doomed-because-we-cant-plan-for-the-long-term-three-experts-discuss-137943

 

Duncan, R (1991). The Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization. Systems Dynamics. https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/1991/proceed/main-pdfs/duncan173.pdf

 

Duterme, R and Servigne, P (2016). The Coming Collapse. Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt. http://www.cadtm.org/The-coming-collapse [Interview with authors of “Collapse, What Does it Mean?” and “How Everything Could Collapse” respectively]

 

Ehrlich, P and Ehrlich, A (2013). Can a Collapse of Global Civilization be Avoided? Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 280(1754). https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2012.2845

 

Ehrlich, P and Ehrlich, A (2016). Population, Resources, and the Faith-Based Economy: the Situation in 2016. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 1(3). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-016-0003-y

 

European Commision (2021). Overview of Natural and Man-made Disaster Risks the European Union May Face. https://ec.europa.eu/echo/sites/echo-site/files/overview_of_natural_and_man-made_disaster_risks_the_european_union_may_face.pdf

 

Farquhar, S, Halstead, J, Cotton-Barratt, O, Schubert, S, Belfield, H, and Snyder-Beattie, A (2017). Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance. Global Priorities Project. https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf

 

Femia, F and Werrel, C (2017). Climate Change, the Erosion of State Sovereignty, and World Order, in Werrell, C and Femia, F, (eds) Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape of the Anthropocene. The Center for Climate and Security. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/1_eroding-sovereignty.pdf

 

Filho, W, Wolf, F, Salvia, A, Beynaghi, A, Shulla, K, Kovaleva, M and Vasconcelos, C (2020). Heading Towards an Unsustainable World: Some of the Implications of Not Achieving the SDGs. Discover Sustainability, 1(2). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43621-020-00002-x#Tab2

 

Foa, R and Mounk, Y (2017). The Signs of Deconsolidation. Journal of Democracy, 28(1): 5-15. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/article/signs-deconsolidation

 

Fragile States Index (2020). Measuring Fragility: Risk and Vulnerability in 178 Countries. https://fragilestatesindex.org/

 

Franco, E (2020). Global Risk Report 2020. World Economic Forum. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf

 

Future Earth (2020). Our Future on Earth. https://futureearth.org/publications/our-future-on-earth/

 

Future of Humanity Institute (n.d.). Existential Risk FAQ: Threats to Humanity’s Future. University of Oxford. https://www.existential-risk.org/faq.html

 

Gaub, F (2019). Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. European Strategy and Policy Analysis System. https://ec.europa.eu/assets/epsc/pages/espas/ESPAS_Report2019.pdf

 

Ge, M, Lebling, K, Levin, K and Friedrich, J (2019). Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-turning-point-progress_2.pdf

 

Gesturing Toward Decolonial Futures (2020a). The (Shit) Storm Categories. https://decolonialfutures.net/portfolio/the-shit-storm/

 

Gesturing Toward Decolonial Futures (2020b). Preparing for the End of the World as We Know It. Open Democracy, Aug 24. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/preparing-end-world-we-know-it/

 

Gilding, P (2012). The Earth is Full. TED talk. https://www.ted.com/talks/paul_gilding_the_earth_is_full [Clear and concise overview]

 

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Robinson, K (2013). Is It Too Late?, in Assadourian, E and Prugh, T eds., State of the World 2013: Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute. http://library.uniteddiversity.coop/More_Books_and_Reports/State_of_the_World/State_of_the_World_2013-Is_Sustainability_Still_Possible.pdf

 

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Rockstrom, J, Schellnhuber, H, Hoskin B, Ramanathan, V, Schlosser, P, Brasseur, G, Gaffney, O, Nobre, C, Meinshausen, M, Rogelj, J, and Lucht, W (2016). The World's Biggest Gamble. Earth’s Future, 4(10). https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000392

 

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Servigne, P, Stevens, R and Chapelle, G (2021). Another End of the World is Possible: Living the Collapse (and Not Merely Surviving It). Polity. https://politybooks.com/bookdetail/?isbn=9781509544653

 

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Taylor, K (2020). The Passing of Western Civilization. Futures, 122. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7245304/ [A key reading that takes the broad, historical view.]

 

Tenza, A, Pérez, I, Martínez-Fernández, J and Giménez, A (2017). Understanding the Decline and Resilience Loss of a Long-lived Social-ecological System: Insights from System Dynamics. Ecology and Society, 22(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09176-220215

 

Tortell, P (2020). Earth 2020: Science, Society, and Sustainability in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,117(16). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2001919117

 

Turchin, P (2010). Political Instability May be a Contributor in the Coming Decade. Nature, 463. https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

 

Turchin, P (2012). Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780–2010. Journal of Peace Research, 49(4). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312442078

 

Turchin, P (2020). The Impending Crisis. Peter Turchin.com. http://peterturchin.com/age-of-discord/

 

Turner, G (2014). Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Historical Data. Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Research Paper No. 4. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267751719_Is_Global_Collapse_Imminent_An_Updated_Comparison_of_The_Limits_to_Growth_with_Historical_Data

 

Tverberg, G (2012). Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Energy, 37(1). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211003744

 

Tverberg, G (2019). The Climate Change Story is Half True. Our Finite World, April 30. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/04/30/the-climate-change-story-is-half-true/ [On the more proximal likelihood of economic collapse compared to climate collapse]

 

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (2017). Global Land Outlook. https://knowledge.unccd.int/glo

 

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (2013). Part 3 – The Consequences of Global Environmental Change for Society, in World Social Science Report 2013: Changing Global Environments. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/world-social-science-report-2013_9789264203419-en  [With many brief articles on this topic.]

 

United Nations Environment Programme (2018). Global Environmental Outlook 5. https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-5

 

United Nations Environment Programme (2019a). What is the Outlook for Humanity? https://www.unenvironment.org/interactive/global-environment-outlook/ [flash type presentation]

 

United Nations Environment Programme (2019b). Global Environment Outlook 6. https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6

 

United Nations Environment Programme (2021). Making Peace with Nature: A Scientific Blueprint to Tackle the Climate, Biodiversity and Pollution Emergencies. https://www.unep.org/resources/making-peace-nature [Large report and a short compelling video.]

 

Vorosmarty, C, McIntyre, P, Gessner, M, Dudgeon, D, Prusevich, A, Green, P, Glidden, S, Bunn, S, Sullivan, C, Reidy, C, Liermann, C, and Davies, P (2010). Global Threats to Human Water Security and River Biodiversity. Nature, 467: 555-561. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7315/full/nature09440.html

 

Vox, L (2017). Existential Threats: American Apocalyptic Beliefs in the Technological Era. University of Pennsylvania Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv2t4cz4

 

Washington, H, Lowe, I and Kopnina, H (2020). Why Do Society and Academia Ignore the ‘Scientists Warning to Humanity’ on population? Journal of Futures Studies, 25(1). https://jfsdigital.org/why-do-society-and-academia-ignore-the-scientists-warning-to-humanity-on-population/

 

Watts, N, et al., (2018). The 2018 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Shaping the Health of Nations for Centuries to Come. The Lancet, 392 (10163): 2479-2514. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32594-7/fulltext

 

Weidmann, T, Lenzen, M, KeyBer, L and Steinberg, J (2020). Scientists’ Warning on Affluence. Nature Communications, 11(3107). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y

 

Weiss, H and Bradley, R (2001). What Drives Societal Collapse? Science, 291. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.462.6120&rep=rep1&type=pdf [Examples of climate-driven collapse.]

 

Werrell, C and Femia, F (2017). Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape of the Anthropocene. The Center for Climate and Security. https://climateandsecurity.org/epicenters/

 

Woetzel, J, Pinner, D, Samandari, H, Engel, H, Krishnan, M, Boland, B and Powis, C (2020). Climate Risk and Response: Physical Hazards and Socioeconomic Impacts. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts

 

World Economic Forum (2019). The Global Risks Report 2019. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2019.pdf

 

Xu, C, Kohler, T, Lenton, T, Svenning, J and Scheffer, M (2020). Future of the Human Climate Niche. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (21). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

 

 

 

C.  Journalism and Think Pieces

 

Ahmed, N (2014). Nasa-funded Study: Industrial Civilisation Headed for 'Irreversible Collapse'? The Guardian, March 14. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

 

Ahmed, N (2019a). Scientists Warn the UN of Capitalism’s Imminent Demise. Resilience.org, May 2. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-05-02/scientists-warn-the-un-of-capitalisms-imminent-demise/

 

Ahmed, N (2019b). U.S. Military Could Collapse Within 20 Years Due to Climate Change, Report Commissioned By Pentagon Says. Vice, Oct. 24. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/mbmkz8/us-military-could-collapse-within-20-years-due-to-climate-change-report-commissioned-by-pentagon-says

 

Ahmed, N (2019c). The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already Begun. Vice, Nov. 22. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8xwygg/the-collapse-of-civilization-may-have-already-begun

 

Ahmed, N (2020a). West’s ‘Dust Bowl’ Future now ‘Locked In’, as World Risks Imminent Food Crisis. Resilience, Jan. 6. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-01-06/wests-dust-bowl-future-now-locked-in-as-world-risks-imminent-food-crisis/

 

Ahmed, N (2020b). Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades. Vice, July 28. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/akzn5a/theoretical-physicists-say-90-chance-of-societal-collapse-within-several-decades

 

Ahmed, N and Miller, A (2020). Our Naked Emperors Catch Coronavirus: Nafeez Ahmed on Global System Breakdown. Crazy Town podcast, April. Post Carbon Institute. https://www.buzzsprout.com/244372/3169123-our-naked-emperors-catch-coronavirus-nafeez-ahmed-on-global-system-breakdown

 

Andersen, R (2012). We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction. The Atlantic, March 6. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/

 

Assadourian, E (2020a). Living with Collapse. Medium, Oct. 29. https://medium.com/@erikassadourian/living-with-collapse-df9289afd637

 

Assadourian, E (2020b). America’s Democracy in an Era of Collapse. Medium, Nov. 10. https://medium.com/@erikassadourian/americas-democracy-in-an-era-of-collapse-f6594211b825

 

Beard, S, Holt, L and Upchurch, P (2019). Dinosaurs were Wiped Out by a Catastrophic Failure of Earth’s Natural Systems – the Same Could Happen to Us. Newsweek, March 29. https://www.newsweek.com/dinosaurs-catastrophic-failure-earths-natural-systems-1379592

 

Bendell, J (2019a). Notes on Hunger and Collapse. Wordpress, March 28. https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2019/03/28/notes-on-hunger-and-collapse/

 

Bendell, J (2020a). Climate Science and Collapse – Warnings Lost in the Wind. Jem Bendell.com, June 15. https://jembendell.com/2020/06/15/climate-science-and-collapse-warnings-lost-in-the-wind/

 

Bendell, J (2020b). Debating the Pros and Cons of Deep Adaptation? Start Here with a New Edition of Original Paper. Jem Bendell.com, July 27. https://jembendell.com/2020/07/27/debating-the-pros-and-cons-of-deep-adaptation-start-here-with-a-new-edition-of-original-paper/

 

Bendell, J (2020c). If Guys with Guns are Talking About Collapse, Why Can’t We? Jem Bendell.com, Nov. 11. https://jembendell.com/2020/11/11/if-guys-with-guns-are-talking-about-collapse-why-cant-we/

 

Blasco, J (2016). The Last Generation. ACCIONA. https://www.activesustainability.com/opinion/the-last-generation/

 

Borenstein, S (2021). UN: Huge Changes in Society Needed to Keep Nature, Earth OK. ABC News, Feb. 18. https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/huge-society-needed-nature-earth-75972560

 

Brannen, P (2017). Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth. The Atlantic, July. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/07/a-road-trip-to-the-end-of-the-world/532914/

 

Brewer, J (2018a). Why I No Longer Attempt to Build a Rigorous Science of Social Change. Center for Applied Cultural Evolution. https://www.slideshare.net/joebrewer31/why-i-am-no-longer-attempting-to-build-a-rigorous-science-of-social-change

 

Brewer, J (2018b). Cultural Scaffolding for Post Collapse. Center for Applied Cultural Evolution. https://www.slideshare.net/joebrewer31/cultural-scaffolding-for-post-collapse

 

Brons, L (2019a). The Lesser Dystopia. F=ma, April 19. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/the-lesser-dystopia/

 

Brons, L (2019b). The 2020s and Beyond. F=ma, Oct. 9. http://www.lajosbrons.net/blog/the-2020s-and-beyond/

 

Carter, P (2019). Dr. Peter Carter: Summarising the Lack of "Climate Emergency" at #COP25. YouTube, Dec. 10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa13KrOvE2s&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1WLLU3fulylAICs_0WDe6rZlb64heHf2ix_7ee6iHlFrRyWzAVLu19Bno

 

Cell Press (2020). Climate Change Likely Drove Early Human Species to Extinction, Modeling Study Suggests. Phys.Org, Oct. 15. https://phys.org/news/2020-10-climate-drove-early-human-species.amp

 

Cole, A (2019). Climate Change is Genocide. Stuff.com, Aug. 25. https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/115230184/climate-change-is-genocide

 

Collins, C (2018). Meet Catabolic Capitalism: Globalization’s Gruesome Twin. Uneven Earth, Nov. 1. http://unevenearth.org/2018/11/meet-catabolic-capitalism-globalizations-gruesome-twin/

 

Cribb, J (2014). Human Extinction: It is Possible? The Sydney Morning Herald, April 2. https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/human-extinction-it-is-possible-20140402-zqpln.html

 

Cuaron, A (2007). The Possibility of Hope. Bonus Feature Documentary on Children of Men DVD. Universal Studios. https://vimeo.com/5222051

 

Dasgupta, R (2018).  The Demise of the Nation State.  The Guardian, April 5. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/05/demise-of-the-nation-state-rana-dasgupta

 

Dauncey, G (2019). Ok Doomer. Resilience, Nov. 26. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-26/ok-doomer/

 

Davis, W (2020). The Unraveling of America. Rolling Stone, Aug. 6. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/

 

Diamond, J and Wallace-Wells, D (2019).  Jared Diamond: There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World as We Know it Will End by 2050. New York Magazine. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html

 

Dowd, M (2020). Collapse 101: The Inevitable Fruit of Progress. YouTube, July 24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Ml9uJNF_kXk&app=desktop

 

Dyke, J (2019). Climate Change: ‘We’ve Created a Civilisation Hell Bent on Destroying Itself – I’m Terrified’, Writes Earth Scientist. The Conversation, May 24. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-weve-created-a-civilisation-hell-bent-on-destroying-itself-im-terrified-writes-earth-scientist-113055

 

Ehrenreich, B (2020). How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart? The New York Times, Nov. 4. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/magazine/societal-collapse.html

 

Ehrenreich, B (2021). We’re Hurtling Toward Global Suicide: Why We Must Do Everything Differently to Ensure the Planet’s Survival. The New Republic, March 18. https://newrepublic.com/article/161575/climate-change-effects-hurtling-toward-global-suicide [Thorough and readable overview of the real challenge we face and our utterly inadequate response.]

 

Engelhardt, T (2019). The Collective Asteroid of Human History. Tikkun, Sept. 17. https://www.tikkun.org/the-collective-asteroid-of-human-history

 

Fallows, J (2019). The End of the Roman Empire Wasn’t That Bad: Maybe the End of the American One Won’t be Either. The Atlantic, Oct. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/10/in-the-fall-of-rome-good-news-for-america/596638/  

 

Felton, J (2019). Claim that Human Civilization Could End in 30 years is Speculative, Not Supported with Evidence. Climate Feedback, June 4. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/

 

Foss, N (2015). The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space. The Automatic Earth, Aug. 20. https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/08/nicole-foss-the-boundaries-and-future-of-solution-space/

 

Foster, J (2017). Towards Deep Hope: Climate Tragedy, Realism and Policy. Green House Think Tank. https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/uploads/4/8/3/2/48324387/towards_deep_hope_inside_final.pdf

 

The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability (2019). Avoiding Tyranny. http://www.feasta.org/2019/10/11/avoiding-tyranny/  [A transcript of a revealing exchange between an ecological economist and a mainstream economist. They quickly reach an impasse where the mainstream economist won’t acknowledge the pathologies of our interlinked energy and financial systems and the ecological economist squirms when accused of supporting a kind of governance best characterized as an “ecological tyranny.”]

 

Franzen, J (2019). What If We Stopped Pretending? The New Yorker, Sept. 8. https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending [Easy to read, but fatalist]

 

Gelspan, R (2007). It’s Too Late to Stop Climate Change, Argues Ross Gelbspan — So What Do We Do Now? Grist, Dec. 11. https://grist.org/article/beyond-the-point-of-no-return/

 

Gergis, J (2020). The Great Unravelling: 'I Never Thought I’d Live to See the Horror of Planetary Collapse'. The Guardian, Oct. 14. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/15/the-great-unravelling-i-never-thought-id-live-to-see-the-horror-of-planetary-collapse

 

Giangrande, N (2020). Is Deep Adaptation Good Science? The Ecologist, July 29. https://theecologist.org/2020/jul/29/deep-adaptation-good-science

 

Goldstone, J and Turchin, P (2020). Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’. Noema, Sept. 10. https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/

 

Greenfield, P and Watts, J (2020). JP Morgan Economists Warn Climate Crisis is Threat to Human Race. The Guardian, Feb. 21. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/21/jp-morgan-economists-warn-climate-crisis-threat-human-race

 

Greer, J (2011). The Onset of Catabolic Collapse. Resilience, Jan. 20. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2011-01-20/onset-catabolic-collapse/

 

Greer, J (2014). Bright Were the Halls Then. Resilience.Org, July 10. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-07-10/bright-were-the-halls-then/

 

Guterres, A (2020). Remarks to the General Assembly on the Secretary-General's Priorities for 2020. United Nations Secretary-General. https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2020-01-22/remarks-general-assembly-priorities-for-2020

 

Hagens, N (2018). Where are We Going? The 40 Shades of Grey. Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere. https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/MAHBBlog_WhereAreWeGoing40ShadesOfGray_NHagens_May2018.pdf [Unusual structure posing a series of dichotomies]

 

Hallam, R (2019). Common Sense for the 21st Century: Only Nonviolent Rebellion Can Now Stop Climate Breakdown and Social Collapse. Roger Hallam.Com. https://www.rogerhallam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Common-Sense-for-the-21st-Century_by-Roger-Hallam-Download-version.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0vAiJx6BYltLoZ5EE08OCYFEXlFjy_PJ-kybZfGAoTO_ShZdPe996Vp_4

 

Halpern D (2018). Sperm Count Zero. GQ Magazine, Sept. 4. https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero

 

Halstead, J (2019b). 10 Reasons Why We’re Not Going to Be Saved. Another End of the World, Nov. 5. https://anotherendoftheworld.org/2019/11/05/10-reasons-why-were-not-going-to-be-saved/

 

Harari, Y (2018). We Need a Post-liberal Order Now. The Economist, Sept. 26. https://www.economist.com/open-future/2018/09/26/we-need-a-post-liberal-order-now

 

Haque, A (2019a). The Age of Collapse. Resilience.Org, Aug. 7. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-08-07/the-age-of-collapse/

 

Haque, U (2019b). How Capitalism Torched the Planet by Imploding into Fascism. Eudamonia & Co, Sept. 21. https://eand.co/how-capitalism-torched-the-planet-by-imploding-into-fascism-6d49db3720d5

 

Haque, U (2020a). If Life Feels Bleak, It’s Because Our Civilization is Beginning to Collapse. Eudaimonia and Co., July 3. https://eand.co/if-life-feels-bleak-its-because-our-civilization-is-beginning-to-collapse-a787d62d714b

 

Haque, A (2020b). America is Having the Mother of All Social Collapses. Eudaimonia, July 24. https://eand.co/america-is-having-the-mother-of-all-social-collapses-1cac9aac0d17

 

Hedges, C (2013). The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies. Truth Dig, Oct. 13. https://www.truthdig.com/videos/the-myth-of-human-progress-and-the-collapse-of-complex-societies-video/

 

Hedges, C (2019a). Sermon at Christ Church Cathedral, Victoria B.C. YouTube, Jan. 20. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9MnG7FTooE&t=164s&fbclid=IwAR34N0wsO0_Jia5XVGx2vy3s9ctdxa9acTzLSHFU24aTHyKWrr9pjK0qp_M

 

Hedges, C (2019b). The World to Come. Truthdig, Jan. 29. https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-world-to-come/

 

Hedges, C (2019c). The Coming Collapse. Common Dreams, May 21.  https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/05/21/coming-collapse

 

Hedges, C and Paikin, S (2018). The Collapse of the American Empire? The Agenda, Sept. 12. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPk9HSLagVg

 

Heinberg, R (2014). Two Realities. Resilience.Org, July, 22. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-07-22/two-realities/

 

Heinberg, R (2017). Are We Doomed? Let’s Have a Talk. Un-Denial.com. https://un-denial.com/2017/07/27/by-richard-heinberg-are-we-doomed-lets-have-a-talk/

 

Heinberg, R (2018a). Ted Nordhaus Is Wrong: We Are Exceeding Earth’s Carrying Capacity. UnDark, July 26. https://undark.org/article/ted-nordhaus-carrying-capacity-ecology/

 

Heinberg, R (2018b). The Big Picture. Resilience.Org. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-12-17/the-big-picture/

 

Heinberg, R (2019). The House is on Fire. Resilience.Org, Feb. 28. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-02-28/the-house-is-on-fire/

 

Heinberg, R (2020). Doom or Denial: Is There Another Path? Resilience, July 24. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-07-24/doom-or-denial-is-there-another-path/

 

Hickerson, R (1997). Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization. Dieoff, Aug. 2. https://dieoff.com/page158.htm

 

Holmgren, D (2013). Crash on Demand: Welcome to the Brown Tech Future. Simplicity Institute Report 13c. http://simplicityinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/CrashOnDemandSimplicityInstitute13c.pdf

 

Homer-Dixon, T (2020). Coronavirus Will Change the World. It Might Also Lead to a Better Future. The Globe and Mail, Mar. 6. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-coronavirus-is-a-collective-problem-that-requires-global/

 

Humphrey, N (2019). Ongoing Abrupt Climate Change and Consequences. Patreon, Nov. 15. https://www.patreon.com/posts/ongoing-abrupt-31591112 [Video]

 

Hunter, A and Hewson, J (2020). There are 10 Catastrophic Threats Facing Humans Right Now, and Coronavirus is Only One of Them. The Conversation, April 21. https://theconversation.com/there-are-10-catastrophic-threats-facing-humans-right-now-and-coronavirus-is-only-one-of-them-136854

 

Hutchinson, R (2017). This Moment: The Emergency, the Opportunity. Green House Think Tank. https://www.greenhousethinktank.org/uploads/4/8/3/2/48324387/this_moment_final.pdf

 

Ingram, C (2019). Facing Extinction. http://www.catherineingram.com/facingextinction/

 

Jamail, D (2019). We Are Destroying Our Life Support System. Truthout, Jan. 28. https://truthout.org/articles/we-are-destroying-our-life-support-system/

 

Jeffery, K (2020). “What We Want to Do is Save Humanity from Extinction”. Extinction Rebellion conference Heading for Extinction. https://theclimatecinema.org/what-we-want-to-do-is-save-humanity-from-extinction-prof-jeffery-behavioural-neuroscience-xr/

 

Kaplan, R (1994). The Coming Anarchy. The Atlantic, Feb. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/

 

Kemp, L (2019a). Are We on the Road to Civilisation Collapse? BBC Future, Feb. 18. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse

 

Kemp, L (2019b). Civilisational Collapse has a Bright Past – But a Dark Future. Aeon, May 21. https://aeon.co/ideas/civilisational-collapse-has-a-bright-past-but-a-dark-future

 

Ketcham, C and Gibbs, J (2021). Op-Ed: Collapseologists are Warning Humanity that Business-as-usual Will Make the Earth Uninhabitable. Los Angeles Times, Jan. 31. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-01-31/societal-collapse-collapseology-climate-change

 

Kilian, C (2018). If We Can’t Stop Hothouse Earth, We’d Better Learn to Live on It. The Tyee, Aug. 15. https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/08/15/Stop-Hothouse-Earth/

 

Killjoy, M (2019). How to Live Like the World is Ending. Birds Before the Storm, Dec. 13. http://birdsbeforethestorm.net/2019/12/how-to-live-like-the-world-is-ending/

 

Ki-Moon, B, Robinson, M, Brown, J and Perry, W (2020). Why the World is Closer than Ever to Doomsday. CNN, Jan. 24. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/24/opinions/doomsday-clock-emergency-moon-robinson-brown-perry/index.html

 

Kingsnorth, P (2011). Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist. Orion Magazine. https://orionmagazine.org/article/confessions-of-a-recovering-environmentalist/

 

Kingsnorth, P (2012). Dark Ecology. Orion Magazine. https://orionmagazine.org/article/dark-ecology/

 

Kingsnorth, P (2019). Life Versus the Machine. Orion, March. https://orionmagazine.org/article/life-versus-the-machine/

 

Knorr, W et al., (2020). After Coronavirus, Focus on the Climate Emergency. The Guardian, May 10. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/after-coronavirus-focus-on-the-climate-emergency

 

Kolbert, E (2020). Three Scenarios for the Future of Climate Change. The New Yorker, Oct. 5. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/three-scenarios-for-the-future-of-climate-change

 

Kurmanaev, A (2019). Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say. NY Times, May 17. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/world/americas/venezuela-economy.html

 

Lent, J (2017a). How Civilizations Collapse. Jeremy Lent.com. https://www.jeremylent.com/civilizational-collapse.html

 

Lent, J (2017b). What Will It Really Take to Avoid Collapse? Patterns of Meaning, Dec. 12. https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/avoid-collapse/

 

Lent, J (2019a). What Will You Say to Your Grandchildren? Patterns of Meaning, April 4. https://patternsofmeaning.com/2019/04/04/what-will-you-say-to-your-grandchildren/ [A critique of Jem Bendell’s Deep Adaptation paper]

 

Lent, J (2019b). Our Actions Create the Future: A Response to Jem Bendell. Patterns of Meaning, April 11. https://patternsofmeaning.com/2019/04/11/our-actions-create-the-future-a-response-to-jem-bendell/

 

Lent, J (2019c). As Society Unravels, the Future Is Up for Grabs. Patterns of Meaning, Sept. 12. https://patternsofmeaning.com/2019/09/12/as-society-unravels-the-future-is-up-for-grabs/

 

Lenzo, W (2021). There are No Stable Prices in a Burning World. 3+ C Global Warming, Quora, Feb. 25. https://www.quora.com/q/3cglobalwarming/There-are-no-stable-prices-in-a-burning-world [Quick take on the fragility of the infrastructure of civilization and poor response of governance.]

 

Lovelock, J (2006a). The Earth is About to Catch a Morbid Fever that May Last as Long as 100,000 Years. Independent, Jan. 16.  https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/james-lovelock-the-earth-is-about-to-catch-a-morbid-fever-that-may-last-as-long-as-100000-years-5336856.html

 

Martensen, C (2019). Collapse is Already Here. It’s a Process, Not an Event. Peak Prosperity, March 10. https://www.peakprosperity.com/collapse-is-already-here/

 

Marvel, K (2019). Lost Cities and Climate Change. Scientific American, July 29. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/lost-cities-and-climate-change/

 

McKibben, B (2016). A World at War: We’re Under Attack from Climate Change—and Our Only Hope is to Mobilize Like We Did in WWII. The New Republic, Aug. 15. https://newrepublic.com/article/135684/declare-war-climate-change-mobilize-wwii

 

McKibben, B (2019). Hello from the Year 2050. We Avoided the Worst of Climate Change — But Everything Is Different. Time, Sept. 12. https://time.com/5669022/climate-change-2050/

 

Meyer, R (2019a). Are We Living Through Climate Change’s Worst-Case Scenario? The Atlantic, Jan. 15. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-the-climate-change-disaster-scenario/579700/

 

Meyer, R (2019b). How Climate Change Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis. The Atlantic, Aug. 1. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/08/how-fed-could-fight-climate-change-adam-tooze/595084/

 

Miller, T (2017). The Era of Walls: Greeting Climate-Change Victims with a Man-Made Dystopia. TomDispatch, The Nation Institute. https://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176360/tomgram%3A_todd_miller%2C_the_market_in_walls_is_growing_in_a_warming_world

 

Monbiot, G (2014). It's Simple. If We Can't Change our Economic System, Our Number's Up. The Guardian, May 27. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/27/if-we-cant-change-economic-system-our-number-is-up

 

Monbiot, G, Treharne, R, Plummer, Z (2019). Climate Change: Heading for Extinction (and What to Do About It). Extinction Rebellion talk, Oxford. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n__y1FXK_jE&feature=emb_rel_pause

 

Morgan, T (2019). The Art of Dark Sky Thinking: Economics, the Environment and the Probability of ‘De-Growth’. Surplus Energy Economics, #155. Sept. 2. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/09/02/155-the-art-of-dark-sky-thinking/

 

Morris, I (2016). Incredible Archaeological Discoveries. World Economic Forum.  https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/why-do-civilizations-collapse [Video on archaeological evidence for factors that determine whether or not ancient civilization collapsed]

 

Moses, A (2020). ‘Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome’: Top Climate Scientists. Voice of Action, June 5. https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/

 

Mudede, C (2020). The Greatest Threat to the Human Race Is Not Climate Denialism But Climate Optimism. The Stranger, Feb. 20. https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/02/20/42923960/the-greatest-threat-to-the-human-race-is-not-climate-denialism-but-climate-optimism [Shares a frank assessment from mycologist Nicholas Money and a podcast of an interview.]

 

Munsch, M (2018). As the Climate Clock Strikes Midnight it’s Time to Look to the Morning. Bright Green, July 22. http://bright-green.org/2017/07/22/as-the-climate-clock-is-strikes-midnight-its-time-to-look-to-the-morning/

 

Munsch, M (2018). Quitting Your Job in the Anthropocene. Noteworthy – The Journal Blog, Nov. 9. https://blog.usejournal.com/quitting-your-job-in-the-anthropocene-13c81660ffa3

 

Mukerjee, M (2012). Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return? Scientific American, May 23. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/

 

Neale, J (2019). Social Collapse and Climate Breakdown. Ecologist, May 8. https://theecologist.org/2019/may/08/social-collapse-and-climate-breakdown

 

New Scientist (2018). Apocalypse Not Now But the Fate of Civilisation is In Our Hands. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23731613-300-apocalypse-not-now-but-the-fate-of-civilisation-is-in-our-hands/ [Very short introduction to the topic.]

 

Nicholas, T, Hall, G and Schmidt, C (2020). The Faulty Science, Doomism, and Flawed Conclusions of Deep Adaptation. Open Democracy, July 14. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/faulty-science-doomism-and-flawed-conclusions-deep-adaptation/

 

Nelson, R (2020). Lethal Modernity. Forum contribution: After the Pandemic: Which Future? Great Transition Initiative. https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/pandemic-scenario-nelson

 

Nuwer, R (2017).  How Western Civilisation Could Collapse.  BBC Future, April 18. http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse [An easy overview]

 

Orlov, D (2005). How Russians Survived the Collapse of the Soviet Union. Energy Skeptic. http://energyskeptic.com/2015/dmitry-orlov-how-russians-survived-collapse/ [A fascinating and troubling long essay considering how America will fare during collapse compared to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Broken up into three parts.]

 

Oxford Climate Society (2020). The Existential Risk of Climate Change. Oxford Climate Society Online Events, June 16. https://www.cser.ac.uk/news/video-existential-risk-climate-change/ [Video of panel discussion with David Wallace Wells, Zeke Hausfather, Luke Kemp and Kate Guy]

 

Papillon (2020). The End of the World Is Nigh. Or Is It? Medium, May 4. https://medium.com/@papillon.earth/the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh-or-is-it-3c007726951e

 

PF Pictures (2014). Disruption. http://watchdisruption.com/ [A disturbing video that provides a compelling overview of how we are driving climate change and our difficulties in addressing it.]

 

Pielke, R (2019). Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions By 2050 Requires A New Nuclear Power Plant Every Day. Forbes, Sept. 30. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/?sh=5b4c214135f7 [Underscores the difficulty of meeting required targets.]

 

Piper, K (2020). The Doomsday Clock is Now at “100 Seconds to Midnight.” Here’s What that Means. Vox, Jan. 23. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/23/21079028/climate-change-extinction-nuclear-war-ai-existential-risk-doomsday-clock

 

Polgreen, L (2019). The Collapse of the Information Ecosystem Poses Profound Risks for Humanity. The Guardian, Nov. 19. https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/19/the-collapse-of-the-information-ecosystem-poses-profound-risks-for-humanity

 

Plumer, B (2014). Two Degrees: The World Set a Simple Goal for Climate Change. We're Likely to Miss It. Vox, April 22. https://www.vox.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees

 

Poodwaddle (2019). Earth Clock. http://www.poodwaddle.com/worldclock/env/ [Provides a disturbing continuous tracking of statistics of environmental degradation. Accuracy uncertain.]

 

Purtill, C (2020). How Close is Humanity to the Edge? The New Yorker, Nov. 21. https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-close-is-humanity-to-the-edge

 

Quinn, D (1996). The Boiling Frog, in The Story of B. New York, NY: Bantam Books. Pp. 258-275. pdf

 

Raskin, P (2014). A Great Transition? Where We Stand. Great Transition Initiative, Oct. https://greattransition.org/publication/a-great-transition-where-we-stand

 

Raskin, P (2021). Interrogating the Anthropocene: Truth and Fallacy. Great Transition Initiative. https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/interrogating-anthropocene-raskin [Worthwhile take on the big picture]

 

Read, R (2018a). Some Thoughts on ‘Civilisational Succession’. Truth and Power, Feb. 9. http://www.truthandpower.com/rupert-read-some-thoughts-on-civilisational-succession/

 

Read, R (2020). This Civilisation Is Finished: So What Is To Be Done? Shed A Light. The Climate Cinema YouTube Channel. https://theclimatecinema.org/shed-a-light-rupert-read-this-civilisation-is-finished-so-what-is-to-be-done/ [Video of a talk.]

 

Real News Network (2018). Michael Mann: We Are Even Closer To Climate Disaster Than IPCC Predicts. https://therealnews.com/stories/michael-mann-we-are-even-closer-to-climate-disaster-than-ipcc-predicts [video]

 

Rees,M (2019). Prospects for Humanity. The Long Now Foundation. http://longnow.org/seminars/02019/jan/14/prospects-humanity/ [video of talk]

 

Rees, W (2019). Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People. The Tyee, Sept. 18. https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/18/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out/

 

Rees, W (2019). Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist. The Tyee, Nov. 11. https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/11/Climate-Change-Realist-Face-Facts/

 

Rees, W (2019). Memo from a Climate Crisis Realist: The Choice before Us. The Tyee, Nov. 12. https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realist-Memo/

 

Reid, R (2019). In the Not-so-distant Future, “Synbio” Could Lead to Global Catastrophe—Maybe. Ars Technica, June 18. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/what-happens-if-we-engineer-a-superbug-and-the-lab-gets-hacked/

 

Rezl, M (2020). Let’s Talk Collapse. https://www.letstalkthis.com/collapse/ [Thorough overview]

 

Ridley, M (2020). Against Environmental Pessimism. Property and Environment Research Center, 39(1). https://www.perc.org/2020/07/06/against-environmental-pessimism/ [Techno-optimism ”free market environmentalism” rebuttal to many environmental tropes. Poorly supported.]

 

Roberts, D (2011). The Brutal Logic of Climate Change. Grist, Dec. 6. https://grist.org/climate-change/2011-12-05-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change/

 

Roberts, D (2015). The Awful Truth About Climate Change No One Wants to Admit. Vox, May15. https://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/truth-climate-change

 

Roberts, D (2019). This is an Emergency, Damn It. Vox, Feb. 23. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/2/23/18228142/green-new-deal-critics

 

Romm, J (2017). We Aren’t Doomed by Climate Change. Right Now we are Choosing to be Doomed. Resilience, July 12. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-07-12/we-arent-doomed-by-climate-change-right-now-we-are-choosing-to-be-doomed/

 

Rosenberg, P (2020). What Lies Ahead: After the Damage of the Trump Era, Can America Avoid Disaster? Salon, Nov. 22. https://www.salon.com/2020/11/21/what-lies-ahead-after-the-damage-of-the-trump-era-can-america-avoid-disaster/ [Insightful interview with historian Jack Goldstone.]

 

Sacks, A (2009). The Fallacy of Climate Activism. Grist, Aug. 24. https://grist.org/article/2009-08-23-the-fallacy-of-climate-activism/

 

Samarajiva, I (2020). I Lived Through Collapse. America Is Already There. Medium, Sept. 25. https://gen.medium.com/i-lived-through-collapse-america-is-already-there-ba1e4b54c5fc

 

Sandberg, A (2019). Will Climate Change Cause Humans to Go Extinct? The Conversation, May 29. https://theconversation.com/will-climate-change-cause-humans-to-go-extinct-117691

 

Seaton, L (2020). Painting Nationalism Green? New Left Review, https://newleftreview.org/issues/II124/articles/lola-seaton-painting-nationalism-green

 

Servigne, P, Stevens, R, Chapelle, G and Rodary, D (2020). Deep Adaptation Opens Up a Necessary Conversation About the Breakdown of Civilization. Open Democracy, Aug. 3. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/deep-adaptation-opens-necessary-conversation-about-breakdown-civilisation/

 

Shaw, M, Bendell, J, Ingram, C, Jamail, D and Rushworth, S (2020). Living in the Time of Dying: Facing the Truth About Climate Change. https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com/

 

Shellenburger, M (2020). On Behalf of Environmentalists, I Apologize For The Climate Scare. Environmental Progress, June 29. http://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2020/6/29/on-behalf-of-environmentalists-i-apologize-for-the-climate-scare [Warning – climate change denialism article.  It was posted on Forbes, then they quickly deleted it. It is included here as it provides an opportunity for critique and rebuttal.]

 

Shenkman, R (2019). The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy. Politico, Sept. 8. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/08/shawn-rosenberg-democracy-228045

 

Simon, E (2018). Capitalism’s Final Solution Is Nothing Less than Complete Ecological Collapse. History News Network, Oct. 9. https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/170192

 

Smaje, C (2020). Collapse: A Helpful Guide for the Perplexed. Resilience, July 27. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-07-27/collapse-a-helpful-guide-for-the-perplexed/

 

Smiler, B (2020). Climate Scenarios: A Big-picture Overview of Where We're Likely Headed. Climate News Research Perspectives. https://barrysmiler.com/scenarios.php[short]

 

Smith, N (2019). The Need for a Greater Vision: Recognizing Reality. Resilience, Nov. 19. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-19/the-need-for-a-greater-vision-recognizing-reality/

 

Smith-Spark, L (2020). Humanity is Waging a 'Suicidal' War on Nature, UN Chief Warns. CNN, Dec. 2. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/world/un-state-of-the-planet-guterres-speech-intl/index.html

 

Snow, D (2018). Mark Lynas's "Six Degrees": A Summary Review. Owlcation, June 23. https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review

 

Spitzer, S (2019). An Open Letter to Those Who Haven’t Faced Climate Change. Respond to Climate Change, May 13. https://respondtoclimatechange.net/an-open-letter-to-those-who-havent-faced-climate-change/ [A solid overview.]

 

Stichele, M (2020). Asia’s Dystopian Future? Why Banks Need to Put Sustainable Finance Clearly in their Sights. Fair Finance Asia. https://fairfinanceasia.org/files/media/base/Asias%20Dystopian%20Future%20_An%20FFA%20%26%20SOMO%20study.pdf

 

Tharoor, I (2021). The World in 2030 May Be Worse than in 2020. The Washington Post, Jan. 3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/04/2020-what-expect-next-ten-years/

 

Thunberg, G (2019). You Did Not Act in Time': Greta Thunberg's Full Speech to MPs. The Guardian, April 23. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-full-speech-to-mps-you-did-not-act-in-time?fbclid=IwAR1fThsLYbYGduHBfJaNy-qlb-pTGnSHjMTHdivRpA8lUk2vrLoxfSLmh30

 

Vaughan-Lee, L (2019). Resilience: Preparing for Social Collapse and Climate Catastrophe. New Story Hub, July 23. http://newstoryhub.com/2019/07/resilience-preparing-for-social-collapse-and-climate-catastrophe-llewellyn-vaughan-lee/

 

Wallace-Wells, D (2017). The Uninhabitable Earth. New York Magazine, July. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

 

Wallace-Wells, D (2018). UN Says Climate Genocide is Coming. It’s Actually Worse than That. New York Magazine, October 10. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/un-says-climate-genocide-coming-but-its-worse-than-that.html

 

Wallace-Wells, D (2019). The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming. Tim Duggan Books. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/read-a-chapter-from-the-uninhabitable-earth-a-dire-warning-on-climate-change

 

Walsh, B (2021). 1 Big Thing: The Global Future is Looking Dark and Stormy. Axios, April 10. https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-f053c977-baca-49b9-8c1f-6cca105127c3.html

 

Weiskel, T (2020). A Chapter In an Ongoing Crisis. Forum (Round 1) on After the Pandemic: Which Future? Great Transition, July. https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/pandemic-scenario-weiskel

 

Wood, G (2020). The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse. The Atlantic, Nov. 12.  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/ [Interview with Peter Turchin. Turchin’s disgruntled response here.

 

Zak, D (2019). ‘Everything is Not Going to be Okay’: How to Live with Constant Reminders that the Earth is in Trouble. The Washington Post, Jan 24. https://outline.com/H49ybr

 

 

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