Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability

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V.        Future Scenarios Analyses

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What’s Here

This bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t. 

We can’t do much about the past, but the future is not written.  If the future is an open book, to what degree can we influence what will fill in its pages?  All initiatives running under the banners of mitigation, adaptation, resilience, sustainable development, and sustainability are interventions meant to offset negative environmental and social trends and provide for a better future.  There are so many initiatives… each targeting different aspects of immensely complicated, intertwined earth and social systems, with each reflecting a unique combination of values and concerns. 

Meanwhile, there is an enormous inertia in how currently dominant cultural norms and socio-economic actors are impacting the world and our well-being.  Despite the many efforts, it is not easy to steer the ship of civilization in better directions, especially when there is disagreement on what “better” looks like and disparate advocates – from government wonks to politicians to activists to captains of industry to artists - are all working hard to nudge the ship in different directions.

What aspects of culture are most malleable?  Which current trends are likely to propagate forward in some linear fashion? Which trends are changing in exponential or unpredictable ways? 1, 2   What elements of our systems are at “tipping points” and are bound to make dramatic shifts to new states? 3, 4, 5   

Aargh! So much uncertainty about our future. Just how can we know what the future holds?  Well, we don’t know, exactly, but we can define various different, but possible, trajectories and assume that what will happen will fall within the boundaries outlined by those different trajectories. This is the work of future scenarios analysis. It is a method to systematically reduce some of the uncertainty associated with assessing what is to come.  This section provides links to prime examples of future scenarios analysis.

The definition of different scenarios in any one analysis generally rests on distinct assumptions about the cultural values that will dominate.  This underscores the importance of culture in addressing our challenges, as well as the potential gains to be realized via cultural transformation.  Evaluating the different scenarios and what following any one of them will likely yield can provide great clarity in terms of what you wish to support or struggle against.

If you have read any primary research or IPCC report relating the results of climate models, you will know that they never present just one modeled result.  Instead, they present multiple modeled outcomes based on different scenarios.  That said, most of the articles linked to via this section are not about scenarios as used in climate modeling studies. The application of future scenarios analysis is broader than just as input to the climate models you can learn about via section I of this bibliography.

You will also note by going through several of the articles in this section that there are many shared assumptions that go into the definition of different scenarios by different research groups.6  In other words, there is not an infinite array of cultural possibilities to contend with when considering our future.  Really, there are only about 4-6 distinct, yet possible, cultural trajectories that our civilization or specific regions are likely to pursue.

As a good place to get an initial handle on the definition and application of future scenarios analysis, I recommend starting here. To get a better understanding of where the distinct cultural paradigms found in future scenarios analyses come from, and the ethics and ideologies upon which they rest, you will want to spend time reviewing the literature referenced in section III - The Cultural How and Why? Ideologies, Ethics, Economics, and Politics of (Un)Sustainability.

If learning about our likely future prospects in this section - in a way that gets past a compartmentalized, intellectual appreciation - is getting you down, you may want to scan the articles in section VII (Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of Confronting the “Traumacene) to get a sense of how others are coping.  The consensus assumption of the articles found in section VII, as well as in the articles of section VI (Synthesis of Existential Risks and the Potential for Societal Collapse) is that we won’t be following one of the cultural trajectories that yields a brighter future.  On the other hand, sections VIII – XII link to articles and reports that emphasize the efforts to nudge that ship of civilization in better directions.  Therein lies our hope.

 

Citations

      

Anderson, K, and Bows, A (2011). Beyond ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change: Emission Scenarios for a New World. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0290

 

Anderson, B, Oleson, K, Jones, B and Peng, R (2016). Projected Trends in High-mortality Heatwaves Under Different Scenarios of Climate, Population, and Adaptation in 82 US Communities. Climatic Change, 146. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1779-x

 

Andrijevic, M, Cuaresma, J, Muttarak, R and Schleussner, C (2020). Governance in Socioeconomic Pathways and its Role for Future Adaptive Capacity. Nature Sustainability, 3. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0405-0

 

Aronoff, K (2022). Authoritarian Nationalism—and Western Militarism—Are Climate Problems. The New Republic, March 2. https://newrepublic.com/article/165543/authoritarian-nationalism-western-militarism-climate-problems

 

Arup (2019). 2050 Scenarios: Four Plausible Futures. https://www.arup.com/perspectives/publications/research/section/2050-scenarios-four-plausible-futures

 

Bai, X, van der Leeuw, S, O'Brien, K, Berkhout, F, Biermann, F, Brondizio, E, Cudennec, C, Dearing, J, Duraiappah, A, Glaser, M, Revkin, A, Steffen, W and Syvitski, J (2016). Plausible and Desirable Futures in the Anthropocene: A New Research Agenda. Global Environmental Change, 39. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/45312449.pdf

 

Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (2021). Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Climate Transition Risk. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/BoC-OSFI-Using-Scenario-Analysis-to-Assess-Climate-Transition-Risk.pdf

 

Barret, R et al., (2021). NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors. The Network for Greening the Financial System. https://www.ngfs.net/sites/default/files/media/2021/08/27/ngfs_climate_scenarios_phase2_june2021.pdf

 

Battistoni, A (2018). States of Emergency. Imagining a Politics for an Age of Accelerated Climate Change. The Nation, June 21. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/political-theory-for-an-age-of-climate-change/

 

Beery, J, Eidinow, E, and Murphy, N (1997).  The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What Will South Africa Be Like in the Year 2002?  Deeper News, 7(1). https://reospartners.com/wp-content/uploads/old/Mont%20Fleur.pdf

[Also, check out these related videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f92RYCZMwEk, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNORlqf7Ipo, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uE4b5KShp8]

 

Benner, A, Rothe, D, Ullstrom, S and Stripple, J (2019). Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction-Politics. Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, Research Report #001. https://ifsh.de/file/publication/Research_Report/191218_IFSH_Research_Report_Web.pdf

 

Bennett, E, Biggs, R, Peterson, G and Gordon, J (2021). Patchwork Earth: Navigating Pathways to Just, Thriving, and Sustainable Futures. One Earth, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.01.004

 

Beumer, C and Martens, P (2010). Noah’s Ark or World Wild Web? Cultural Perspectives in Global Scenario Studies and Their Function for Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing World. Sustainability, 2(10): 3211-3238. http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/2/10/3211

 

Betts, R, Collins, M, Hemming, D, Jones, C, Lowe, J and Sanderson, M (2011). When Could Global Warming Reach 4°C? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369(1934). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0292

 

Biospheres Futures (2021). https://www.biospherefutures.net/

 

Bishop, P Hines, A, and Collins, T (2007). The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques. Foresight, 9(1): 5-25. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andy_Hines/publication/228623754_The_current_state_of_scenario_development_An_overview_of_techniques/links/0f31753c036cf1a857000000/The-current-state-of-scenario-development-An-overview-of-techniques.pdf?origin=publication_detail

 

Board on Sustainable Development, National Research Council (1999). Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability. National Academy Press. Executive summary: http://www.rwkates.org/pdfs/b1999.01.pdf Full report: https://www.nap.edu/catalog/9690/our-common-journey-a-transition-toward-sustainability [Has a 50 page section on the use of scenarios.]

 

Bodirsky, B, Popp, A, Weindl, I, Dietrich, J, Rolinski, S, Scheiffele, L, Schmitz, C and Lotze-Campen, H (2012). N2O Emissions from the Global Agricultural Nitrogen Cycle – Current State and Future Scenarios. Biogeosciences, 9. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4169-2012

 

Bodirsky, B et al., (2014). Reactive Nitrogen Requirements to Feed the World in 2050 and Potential to Mitigate Nitrogen Pollution. Nature Communications, 5(3858). https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms4858 

 

Brown, J et al., (2011). Energetic Limits to Economic Growth. Bioscience, 61(1). https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.1.7

 

Burgess, M, Ritchie, J, Shapland, J and Pielke, R (2020). IPCC Baseline Scenarios Have Over-projected CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1). https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcdd2

 

Buxton, N and Hayes, B (eds.) (2015). The Secure and the Dispossessed - How the Military and Corporations are Shaping a Climate-Changed World. The Transnational Institute. Publishers site: https://www.tni.org/en/publication/the-secure-and-the-dispossessed Full text for free: https://www.academia.edu/40078378/Secure_and_dispossessed_How_the_Military_and_Corporations_are_Shaping_a_Climate_Changed_World [“examines the military and corporations' strategies in the context of climate change to secure wealth for those who have it while further dispossessing those who will be most affected by climate change.”]

 

Capellan-Perez, I, Mediavilla, M, de Castro, C, Carpintero, O and Miguel, L (2015). More Growth? An Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change. Sustainability Science, 10. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-015-0299-3

 

Climate Action Tracker (2021a). Temperatures: Addressing Global Warming. https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/ [Good graph of 2100 warming projections for different scenarios.]

 

Climate Action Tracker (2021b). Global Update: Climate Summit Momentum. https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-update-climate-summit-momentum/ [Good graphics relating temperature outcomes for different policies and pledges.]

 

Cork, S, Peterson, G, Petschel-Held, G, Alcamo, J, Alder, J, Bennet, E, Carr, E, Deane, D, Nelson, G, Ribeiro, T, Butler, C, Mendiondo, E, Oluoch-Kosura, W, and Zurek, M (2001).  Four Scenarios, in Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.332.aspx.pdf

 

Cosgrove, W (2013). Water Futures: The Evolution of Water Scenarios. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(6). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.10.001

 

Costanza, R (2000). Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable) Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis. Conservation Ecology, 4(1). https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol4/iss1/art5/ [Star Trek vs. Mad Max vs. Mega Government vs. Ecotopia]

 

Crownshaw, T et al., (2019). Over the Horizon: Exploring the Conditions of a Post-growth World. The Anthropocene Review, 6(1-2). https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019618820350

 

Deese, B, Hildebrand, P, Kushel, R and Mateos y Lago, I (2020). Getting Physical: Scenario Analysis for Assessing Climate-related Risks. Blackrock Investment Institute. https://www.blackrock.com/ch/individual/en/literature/whitepaper/bii-physical-climate-risks-april-2019.pdf

 

Der Esch, S, ten Brink, B, Stehfest, E, Bakkenes, M, Sewell, A, Bouwman, A, Meijer, J, Westhoek, H and van den Berg, M (2017). Exploring Future Changes in Land Use and Land Condition and the Impacts on Food, Water, Climate Change and Biodiversity. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. https://knowledge.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2018-06/pbl-2017-exploring-future-changes-in-land-use-and-land-condition-2076.pdf

 

Ebi, K (2014). Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11(1). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3924435/

 

Elshkaki, A, Graedel, T, Ciacci, L and Reck, B (2016). Copper Demand, Supply, and Associated Energy Use to 2050. Global Environmental Change, 39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.006

 

Fanning, A, O’Neill, D, Hickel, J and Roux, N (2021). The Social Shortfall and Ecological Overshoot of Nations. Nature Sustainability, . https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00799-zc

 

Fergnani, A (2019). Scenario Archetypes of the Futures of Capitalism: The Conflict Between the Psychological Attachment to Capitalism and the Prospect of its Dissolution. Futures, 105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.006 also here

 

Flaschbarth, I, Willaarts, B, Xie, H, Pitois, G, Mueller, N, Ringler, C, Garrido, A (2015). The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways. PLoS One, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0116733

 

Fujimori, S, Hasegawa, T, Masui, T, Takahashi, K, Herran, D, Dai, H, Hijioka, Y and Kainuma, M (2017). SSP3: AIM Implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change, 42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009

 

Gaines, S, Costello, C, Owashi, B, Mangin, T, Bone, J, and Molinos, J (2018). Improved Fisheries Management Could Offset Many Negative Effects of Climate Change. Science Advances, 4(8). http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaao1378?mod=article_inline

 

Gammon, K (2019). What Will Our World Look Like in 2050? USC Trojan Family, Autumn. https://news.usc.edu/trojan-family/climate-change-2050-usc-experts-predictions/

 

Gao, J and O’Neill, B (2020). Mapping Global Urban Land for the 21st Century with Data-driven Simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Nature Communications, 11(2302). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15788-7

 

Gaub, F (2019). Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. European Strategy and Policy Analysis System. https://ec.europa.eu/assets/epsc/pages/espas/ESPAS_Report2019.pdf

 

Gaub, F and Lienard, C (2021). Arab Climate Future: Of Risk and Readiness. Chaillot Paper 170. The European Union Institute for Security Studies. https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/arab-climate-futures

 

Great Transition Initiative (2016). Global Scenarios. http://greattransition.org/explore/scenarios

 

Guttal, S (2020). The Fortress World is Our World. Great Transitions Forum. https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/pandemic-scenario-guttal

 

Hausfather, Z (2018).  Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ Explore Future Climate Change. Carbon Brief, April 19. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change 

 

Heacox, K (2021). Why America Needs a Department of the Future. The Guardian, Aug. 27. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/27/why-we-need-a-department-of-the-future

 

Heinberg, R (2022). The Limits to Growth at 50: From Scenarios to Unfolding Reality. Resilience, Feb. 24. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022-02-24/the-limits-to-growth-at-50-from-scenarios-to-unfolding-reality/

 

Hickel, J et al., (2021). Urgent Need for Post-growth Climate Mitigation Scenarios. Nature Energy, 6. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00884-9

 

Holmgren, D (2011). The Four Energy Descent and Climate Scenarios, in Future Scenarios: How Communities can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change. Future Scenarios.org http://futurescenarios.org/content/view/27/46/index.html

 

Holmgren, D (2013). Crash on Demand: Welcome to the Brown Tech Future. Simplicity Institute Report 13c. http://simplicityinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/CrashOnDemandSimplicityInstitute13c.pdf

 

Hunt, D and 26 co-authors (2012). Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes. Sustainability, 4(4): 740-772. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/4/4/740

 

Ialenti, V (2021). The Art of Pondering Earth's Distant Future. Scientific American, Aug. 13. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-art-of-pondering-earths-distant-future/

 

IEEP, Alterra, Ecologic, PBL and UNEP-WCMC (2009). Scenarios and Models for Exploring Future Trends of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Changes. Final report to the European Commission, DG Environment. Institute for European Environmental Policy, Alterra Wageningen UR, Ecologic, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre. https://ieep.eu/uploads/articles/attachments/57a6a3ea-eeda-48e5-961d-12ef168972fc/bioscenarios_report.pdf?v=63664509721 [A big book]

 

International Energy Agency (2021). World Energy Outlook 2021. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/88dec0c7-3a11-4d3b-99dc-8323ebfb388b/WorldEnergyOutlook2021.pdf

 

International Panel on Climate Change (2018). Scenario Process for AR5. http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/scenario_overview.html

 

International Panel on Climate Change (2021). Worlds Apart: A Story of Three Possible Warmer Worlds. https://www.ipcc.ch/static/infographic/worlds-apart/ [Visually compelling and concise.]

 

International Resource Panel (2019). Global Resources Outlook. United Nations Environment Programme. https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/global-resources-outlook

 

IPIECA (2019). The Role of Scenario Analysis in Climate Reporting. https://www.ipieca.org/resources/awareness-briefing/the-role-of-scenario-analysis-in-climate-reporting/ [Survey of scenario analyses by oil companies.]

 

Irfan, U (2021). What’s the Worst that Could Happen? Vox, Sept. 10. https://www.vox.com/22620706/climate-change-ipcc-report-2021-ssp-scenario-future-warming [Provides an easy to read overview of the 2021 IPCC scenario assumptions.]

 

Islam, S, Cheng, H, Helgason, K, Hunt, N, Kawamura, H and LaFleur. M (2020). Sustainable Development Outlook 2020. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://sdgs.un.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/SDO2020_Book.pdf

 

Johnson, J, Baldos, U, Hertel, T, Liu, J, Nootenboom, C, Polasky, S and Roxburgh, T (2020). Global Futures: Modelling the Global Economic Impacts of Environmental Change to Support Policy-making. World Wildlife Fund Technical Report. https://www.wwf.org.uk/globalfutures

 

Kahane, A (2013). Transformative Scenario Planning: A Tool for Systemic Change. Social Space: 16-22. https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1109&context=lien_research

 

Kepner, W, Ramsey, M, Brown, E, Jarchow, M, Dickinson, K and Mark, A (2012). Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services. Ecosphere, 3(7). https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00367.1

 

KeyBer, L and Lenzen, M (2021). 1.5°C Degrowth Scenarios Suggest the Need for New Mitigation Pathways. Nature Communications, 12. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22884-9

 

Kopnina, H (2014). Future Scenarios and Environmental Education. The Journal of Environmental Education, 45(4). https://doi.org/10.1080/00958964.2014.941783

 

Kuhnhenn, K (2018). Economic Growth in Mitigation Scenarios: A Blind Spot in Climate Science. Heinrich Böll Foundation. https://www.boell.de/sites/default/files/endf2_kuhnhenn_growth_in_mitigation_scenarios.pdf

 

Lau, W et al., (2020). Evaluating Scenarios Toward Zero Plastic Pollution. Science, 369(6510). https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/07/22/science.aba9475.full

 

Leadley, P, Pereira, H, Alkemade, R, Fernandez-Manjarrés, J, Proença, V, Scharlemann, J, Walpole, M (2010) Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Technical Series no. 50. https://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/cbd-ts-50-en.pdf [With examples of tipping point mechanisms and feedback loops.]

 

Lempert, R, Preston, B, Edmonds, J, Clarke, L, Wild, T, Binsted, M, Diringer, E and Townsend, B (2019). Pathways to 2050: Alternative Scenarios for Decarbonizing the US Economy. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. https://www.c2es.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/pathways-to-2050-scenarios-for-decarbonizing-the-us-economy-final.pdf

 

Lloyd’s of London (2015). Food System Shock: The Insurance Impacts of Acute Disruption to Global Food Supply. https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/society-and-security/food-system-shock

 

Lyon, C et al., (2021). Our Climate Projections for 2500 Show an Earth that is Alien to Humans. The Conversation, Sept. 26. https://theconversation.com/our-climate-projections-for-2500-show-an-earth-that-is-alien-to-humans-167744

 

Maier, J, Guillaume, J, van Delden, H, Riddell, G, Haasnoot, M and Kwakkel, J (2016). An Uncertain Future, Deep Uncertainty, Scenarios, Robustness and Adaptation: How Do they Fit Together? Environmental Modeling & Software, 81: 154-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014

 

Marzec, R (2018). Securing the Future in the Anthropocene: A Critical Analysis of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 6. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.294

 

Maslin, M (2021). Climate Change: How Bad Could the Future be if We Do Nothing? The Conversation, May 6. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-how-bad-could-the-future-be-if-we-do-nothing-159665

 

Mavrommati, G, Rogers, S, Howarth, R and Borusk, M (2020). Representing Future Generations in the Deliberative Valuation of Ecosystem Services. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 8. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.417

 

McPhearson, T, Iwaniec, D and Bai, X (2016). Positive Visions for Guiding Urban Transformations Toward Sustainable Futures. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 22: 33-40. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/552ec5f5e4b07754ed72c4d2/t/59439c42f5e231a68c4c248e/1497603147844/mcphearson+et+al.+2017+cosust.pdf

 

Meyer, N (2018). Using Scenarios to Assess and Report Climate-Related Financial Risk. C2ES – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. https://www.c2es.org/document/using-scenarios-to-assess-and-report-climate-related-financial-risk/

 

Meyer, R (2019). Are We Living Through Climate Change’s Worst-Case Scenario? The Atlantic, Jan. 15. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-the-climate-change-disaster-scenario/579700/

 

Milkoreit, M (2017). Imaginary Politics: Climate Change and Making the Future. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 5. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.249

 

Mische, A (2016). Reflection on Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization. Great Transition Initiative, Tellus Institute. https://greattransition.org/reflection/jte-ann-mische

 

Mitchell, A and Chaudhury, A (2020). Worlding Beyond ‘the’ ‘End’ of ‘the World’: White Apocalyptic Visions and BIPOC Futurisms. International Relations, 34(3). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0047117820948936

 

Molotoks, A, Henry, R, Stehfest, E, Doelman, J, Havlik, P, Krisztin, T, Alexander, P, Dawson, T and Smith, P (2020). Comparing the Impact of Future Cropland Expansion on Global Biodiversity and Carbon Storage Across Models and Scenarios. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 375. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2019.0189

 

Moore, M and Milkoreit, M (2020). Imagination and Transformations to Sustainable and Just Futures. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.081

 

Moriarty, P and Hannery, D (2016). Uncertainty, Utopia, and the Contested Future, in Scott, J (ed.) Transdiscourse 2: Turbulence and Reconstruction. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292607863_Uncertainty_Utopia_and_the_Contested_Future 

 

Moriarty, P and Honnery, D (2017). Three Futures: Nightmare, Diversion, Vision. World Futures, 74(2). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319406751_Three_futures_Nightmare_diversion_vision

 

Morgan, D (2009). World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race. Futures, 41(10). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328709001049

 

Morrissey, J, Axon, S, Hillman, J, Moninero Perez, S, Lennon, B and Dunphy, N (2017). Innovation Pathways to Transition. ENTRUST. https://zenodo.org/record/3479229#.XmkXZEBFy70

 

Moslin, M (2021). The Year 2100 is Going to Be One of 2 Monumental Scenarios. Inverse, May 22. https://www.inverse.com/science/climate-crisis-how-bad-could-the-future-be-if-we-do-nothing

 

The Mowat Centre (2014). Future State 2030: The Global Megatrends Shaping Governments. KPMG International Cooperative. https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2014/02/future-state-2030-v3.pdf

 

Nakicenovic, N, Lempert, R and Janetos, A (2014). Special Issue: A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research. Climatic Change, 122(3). https://link.springer.com/journal/10584/122/3

 

The National Intelligence Council (2021). Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf

 

The Nature Conservancy (2018). The Science of Sustainability: Exploring a Unified Path for Development and Conservation. https://www.nature.org/en-us/what-we-do/our-insights/perspectives/the-science-of-sustainability/

 

Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (2021). Scenarios Portal. https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/ [Interactive web site.]

 

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