Bibliography
of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability
Bounce me down to the bibliography
citations
What’s Here
This
bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along
with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t.
We
can’t do much about the past, but the future is not written. If the future is an open book, to what degree
can we influence what will fill in its pages?
All initiatives running under the banners of mitigation, adaptation,
resilience, sustainable development, and sustainability are interventions meant
to offset negative environmental and social trends and provide for a better
future. There are so many initiatives… each targeting different aspects of immensely
complicated, intertwined earth and social systems, with each reflecting a
unique combination of values and concerns.
Meanwhile,
there is an enormous inertia in how currently dominant cultural norms and
socio-economic actors are impacting the world and our well-being. Despite the many efforts, it is not easy to
steer the ship of civilization in better directions, especially when there is
disagreement on what “better” looks like and disparate advocates – from
government wonks to politicians to activists to captains of industry to artists
- are all working hard to nudge the ship in different directions.
What
aspects of culture are most malleable?
Which current trends are likely to propagate forward in some linear
fashion? Which trends are changing in exponential or unpredictable ways? 1,
2 What elements of our systems are at
“tipping points” and are bound to make dramatic shifts to new states? 3, 4,
5
Aargh!
So much uncertainty about our future. Just how can we know what the future
holds? Well, we don’t know, exactly, but
we can define various different, but possible, trajectories and assume that
what will happen will fall within the
boundaries outlined by those different trajectories. This is the work of future
scenarios analysis. It is a method to systematically reduce some of the
uncertainty associated with assessing what is to come. This section provides links to prime examples
of future scenarios analysis.
The
definition of different scenarios in any one analysis generally rests on
distinct assumptions about the cultural values that will dominate. This underscores the importance of culture in
addressing our challenges, as well as the potential gains to be realized via
cultural transformation. Evaluating the different scenarios and what
following any one of them will likely yield can provide great clarity in terms
of what you wish to support or struggle against.
If
you have read any primary research or IPCC report relating the results of
climate models, you will know that they never present just one modeled
result. Instead, they present multiple
modeled outcomes based on different scenarios. That said, most of the articles linked to via
this section are not about scenarios as used in climate modeling studies. The
application of future scenarios analysis is broader than just as input to the
climate models you can learn about via section I
of this bibliography.
You
will also note by going through several of the articles in this section that
there are many shared assumptions that go into the definition of different
scenarios by different research groups.6 In other words, there is not an infinite
array of cultural possibilities to contend with when considering our
future. Really, there are only about 4-6
distinct, yet possible, cultural trajectories that our civilization or specific
regions are likely to pursue.
As
a good place to get an initial handle on the definition and application of
future scenarios analysis, I recommend starting here.
To get a better understanding of where the distinct cultural paradigms found in
future scenarios analyses come from, and the ethics and ideologies upon which
they rest, you will want to spend time reviewing the literature referenced in section
III - The Cultural How and Why?
Ideologies, Ethics, Economics, and Politics of (Un)Sustainability.
If
learning about our likely future prospects in this section - in a way that gets
past a compartmentalized, intellectual appreciation - is getting you down, you
may want to scan the articles in section
VII (Eco-anxiety and the Psychology
of Confronting the “Traumacene”) to get a sense
of how others are coping. The consensus
assumption of the articles found in section
VII, as well as in the articles of section
VI (Synthesis of Existential Risks
and the Potential for Societal Collapse) is that we won’t be
following one of the cultural trajectories that yields a brighter future. On the other hand, sections
VIII – XII link to articles and reports that emphasize the efforts to nudge
that ship of civilization in better directions.
Therein lies our hope.
Citations
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[Also, check
out these related videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f92RYCZMwEk, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNORlqf7Ipo, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uE4b5KShp8]
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Board on
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[Star Trek vs. Mad Max vs. Mega Government vs. Ecotopia]
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Fanning, A, O’Neill, D, Hickel, J and
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Conflict Between the Psychological Attachment to Capitalism and the Prospect of
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Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security:
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Fujimori, S, Hasegawa, T, Masui, T,
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Y and Kainuma, M (2017). SSP3: AIM Implementation
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J (2018). Improved Fisheries Management Could
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Gammon, K
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[A big book]
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International
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compelling and concise.]
International Panel on Climate
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region for different scenarios.]
International
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IPIECA
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[Survey of scenario analyses by oil companies.]
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