Bibliography of Literature Relevant to Our Future Sustainability

To the Home Page

Back to the Previous Section

On to the Next Section


V.        Future Scenarios Analyses

Bounce me down to the bibliography citations

What’s Here

This bibliography is concerned with disturbing environmental and social trends, along with the potential to make things better and the risks if we don’t. 

We can’t do much about the past, but the future is not written.  If the future is an open book, to what degree can we influence what will fill in its pages?  All initiatives running under the banners of mitigation, adaptation, resilience, sustainable development, and sustainability are interventions meant to offset negative environmental and social trends and provide for a better future.  There are so many initiatives… each targeting different aspects of immensely complicated, intertwined earth and social systems, with each reflecting a unique combination of values and concerns. 

Meanwhile, there is an enormous inertia in how currently dominant cultural norms and socio-economic actors are impacting the world and our well-being.  Despite the many efforts, it is not easy to steer the ship of civilization in better directions, especially when there is disagreement on what “better” looks like and disparate advocates – from government wonks to politicians to activists to captains of industry to artists - are all working hard to nudge the ship in different directions.

What aspects of culture are most malleable?  Which current trends are likely to propagate forward in some linear fashion? Which trends are changing in exponential or unpredictable ways? 1, 2   What elements of our systems are at “tipping points” and are bound to make dramatic shifts to new states? 3, 4, 5   

Aargh! So much uncertainty about our future. Just how can we know what the future holds?  Well, we don’t know, exactly, but we can define various different, but possible, trajectories and assume that what will happen will fall within the boundaries outlined by those different trajectories. This is the work of future scenarios analysis. It is a method to systematically reduce some of the uncertainty associated with assessing what is to come.  This section provides links to prime examples of future scenarios analysis.

The definition of different scenarios in any one analysis generally rests on distinct assumptions about the cultural values that will dominate.  This underscores the importance of culture in addressing our challenges, as well as the potential gains to be realized via cultural transformation.  Evaluating the different scenarios and what following any one of them will likely yield can provide great clarity in terms of what you wish to support or struggle against.

If you have read any primary research or IPCC report relating the results of climate models, you will know that they never present just one modeled result.  Instead, they present multiple modeled outcomes based on different scenarios.  That said, most of the articles linked to via this section are not about scenarios as used in climate modeling studies. The application of future scenarios analysis is broader than just as input to the climate models you can learn about via section I of this bibliography.

You will also note by going through several of the articles in this section that there are many shared assumptions that go into the definition of different scenarios by different research groups.6  In other words, there is not an infinite array of cultural possibilities to contend with when considering our future.  Really, there are only about 4-6 distinct, yet possible, cultural trajectories that our civilization or specific regions are likely to pursue.

As a good place to get an initial handle on the definition and application of future scenarios analysis, I recommend starting here. To get a better understanding of where the distinct cultural paradigms found in future scenarios analyses come from, and the ethics and ideologies upon which they rest, you will want to spend time reviewing the literature referenced in section III - The Cultural How and Why? Ideologies, Ethics, Economics, and Politics of (Un)Sustainability.

If learning about our likely future prospects in this section - in a way that gets past a compartmentalized, intellectual appreciation - is getting you down, you may want to scan the articles in section VII (Eco-anxiety and the Psychology of Confronting the “Traumacene) to get a sense of how others are coping.  The consensus assumption of the articles found in section VII, as well as in the articles of section VI (Synthesis of Existential Risks and the Potential for Societal Collapse) is that we won’t be following one of the cultural trajectories that yields a brighter future.  On the other hand, sections VIII – XII link to articles and reports that emphasize the efforts to nudge that ship of civilization in better directions.  Therein lies our hope.




Anderson, K, and Bows, A (2011). Beyond ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change: Emission Scenarios for a New World. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369.


Anderson, B, Oleson, K, Jones, B and Peng, R (2016). Projected Trends in High-mortality Heatwaves Under Different Scenarios of Climate, Population, and Adaptation in 82 US Communities. Climatic Change, 146.


Andrijevic, M, Cuaresma, J, Muttarak, R and Schleussner, C (2020). Governance in Socioeconomic Pathways and its Role for Future Adaptive Capacity. Nature Sustainability, 3.


Aronoff, K (2022). Authoritarian Nationalism—and Western Militarism—Are Climate Problems. The New Republic, March 2.


Arup (2019). 2050 Scenarios: Four Plausible Futures.


Bai, X, van der Leeuw, S, O'Brien, K, Berkhout, F, Biermann, F, Brondizio, E, Cudennec, C, Dearing, J, Duraiappah, A, Glaser, M, Revkin, A, Steffen, W and Syvitski, J (2016). Plausible and Desirable Futures in the Anthropocene: A New Research Agenda. Global Environmental Change, 39.


Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (2021). Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Climate Transition Risk.


Barret, R et al., (2021). NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors. The Network for Greening the Financial System.


Battistoni, A (2018). States of Emergency. Imagining a Politics for an Age of Accelerated Climate Change. The Nation, June 21.


Beery, J, Eidinow, E, and Murphy, N (1997).  The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What Will South Africa Be Like in the Year 2002?  Deeper News, 7(1).

[Also, check out these related videos:,,]


Benner, A, Rothe, D, Ullstrom, S and Stripple, J (2019). Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction-Politics. Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, Research Report #001.


Bennett, E, Biggs, R, Peterson, G and Gordon, J (2021). Patchwork Earth: Navigating Pathways to Just, Thriving, and Sustainable Futures. One Earth, 4(2).


Beumer, C and Martens, P (2010). Noah’s Ark or World Wild Web? Cultural Perspectives in Global Scenario Studies and Their Function for Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing World. Sustainability, 2(10): 3211-3238.


Betts, R, Collins, M, Hemming, D, Jones, C, Lowe, J and Sanderson, M (2011). When Could Global Warming Reach 4°C? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369(1934).


Biospheres Futures (2021).


Bishop, P Hines, A, and Collins, T (2007). The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques. Foresight, 9(1): 5-25. or


Board on Sustainable Development, National Research Council (1999). Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability. National Academy Press. Executive summary: Full report: [Has a 50 page section on the use of scenarios.]


Bodirsky, B, Popp, A, Weindl, I, Dietrich, J, Rolinski, S, Scheiffele, L, Schmitz, C and Lotze-Campen, H (2012). N2O Emissions from the Global Agricultural Nitrogen Cycle – Current State and Future Scenarios. Biogeosciences, 9.


Bodirsky, B et al., (2014). Reactive Nitrogen Requirements to Feed the World in 2050 and Potential to Mitigate Nitrogen Pollution. Nature Communications, 5(3858). 


Brown, J et al., (2011). Energetic Limits to Economic Growth. Bioscience, 61(1).


Burgess, M, Ritchie, J, Shapland, J and Pielke, R (2020). IPCC Baseline Scenarios Have Over-projected CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1).


Buxton, N and Hayes, B (eds.) (2015). The Secure and the Dispossessed - How the Military and Corporations are Shaping a Climate-Changed World. The Transnational Institute. Publishers site: Full text for free: [“examines the military and corporations' strategies in the context of climate change to secure wealth for those who have it while further dispossessing those who will be most affected by climate change.”]


Capellan-Perez, I, Mediavilla, M, de Castro, C, Carpintero, O and Miguel, L (2015). More Growth? An Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change. Sustainability Science, 10.


Climate Action Tracker (2021a). Temperatures: Addressing Global Warming. [Good graph of 2100 warming projections for different scenarios.]


Climate Action Tracker (2021b). Global Update: Climate Summit Momentum. [Good graphics relating temperature outcomes for different policies and pledges.]


Cork, S, Peterson, G, Petschel-Held, G, Alcamo, J, Alder, J, Bennet, E, Carr, E, Deane, D, Nelson, G, Ribeiro, T, Butler, C, Mendiondo, E, Oluoch-Kosura, W, and Zurek, M (2001).  Four Scenarios, in Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.


Cosgrove, W (2013). Water Futures: The Evolution of Water Scenarios. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(6).


Costanza, R (2000). Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable) Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis. Conservation Ecology, 4(1). [Star Trek vs. Mad Max vs. Mega Government vs. Ecotopia]


Crownshaw, T et al., (2019). Over the Horizon: Exploring the Conditions of a Post-growth World. The Anthropocene Review, 6(1-2).


Deese, B, Hildebrand, P, Kushel, R and Mateos y Lago, I (2020). Getting Physical: Scenario Analysis for Assessing Climate-related Risks. Blackrock Investment Institute.


Der Esch, S, ten Brink, B, Stehfest, E, Bakkenes, M, Sewell, A, Bouwman, A, Meijer, J, Westhoek, H and van den Berg, M (2017). Exploring Future Changes in Land Use and Land Condition and the Impacts on Food, Water, Climate Change and Biodiversity. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.


Ebi, K (2014). Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11(1).


Elshkaki, A, Graedel, T, Ciacci, L and Reck, B (2016). Copper Demand, Supply, and Associated Energy Use to 2050. Global Environmental Change, 39.


Fanning, A, O’Neill, D, Hickel, J and Roux, N (2021). The Social Shortfall and Ecological Overshoot of Nations. Nature Sustainability, .


Fergnani, A (2019). Scenario Archetypes of the Futures of Capitalism: The Conflict Between the Psychological Attachment to Capitalism and the Prospect of its Dissolution. Futures, 105. also here


Flaschbarth, I, Willaarts, B, Xie, H, Pitois, G, Mueller, N, Ringler, C, Garrido, A (2015). The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways. PLoS One, 10(1).


Fujimori, S, Hasegawa, T, Masui, T, Takahashi, K, Herran, D, Dai, H, Hijioka, Y and Kainuma, M (2017). SSP3: AIM Implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change, 42.


Gaines, S, Costello, C, Owashi, B, Mangin, T, Bone, J, and Molinos, J (2018). Improved Fisheries Management Could Offset Many Negative Effects of Climate Change. Science Advances, 4(8).


Gammon, K (2019). What Will Our World Look Like in 2050? USC Trojan Family, Autumn.


Gao, J and O’Neill, B (2020). Mapping Global Urban Land for the 21st Century with Data-driven Simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Nature Communications, 11(2302).


Gaub, F (2019). Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. European Strategy and Policy Analysis System.


Gaub, F and Lienard, C (2021). Arab Climate Future: Of Risk and Readiness. Chaillot Paper 170. The European Union Institute for Security Studies.


Girod, B, Wiek, A, Mieg, H and Hulme, M (2009). The Evolution of the IPCC’s Emissions Scenarios. Environmental Science and Policy, 12(2).


Great Transition Initiative (2016). Global Scenarios.


Guttal, S (2020). The Fortress World is Our World. Great Transitions Forum.


Halal, W and Marien, M (2011). Global MegaCrisis: Four Scenarios, Two Perspectives. The Futurist, May-June.


Hausfather, Z (2018).  Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ Explore Future Climate Change. Carbon Brief, April 19. 


Heacox, K (2021). Why America Needs a Department of the Future. The Guardian, Aug. 27.


Heinberg, R (2022). The Limits to Growth at 50: From Scenarios to Unfolding Reality. Resilience, Feb. 24.


Hickel, J et al., (2021). Urgent Need for Post-growth Climate Mitigation Scenarios. Nature Energy, 6.


Holmgren, D (2011). The Four Energy Descent and Climate Scenarios, in Future Scenarios: How Communities can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change. Future


Holmgren, D (2013). Crash on Demand: Welcome to the Brown Tech Future. Simplicity Institute Report 13c.


Hunt, D and 26 co-authors (2012). Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes. Sustainability, 4(4): 740-772.


Ialenti, V (2021). The Art of Pondering Earth's Distant Future. Scientific American, Aug. 13.


IEEP, Alterra, Ecologic, PBL and UNEP-WCMC (2009). Scenarios and Models for Exploring Future Trends of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Changes. Final report to the European Commission, DG Environment. Institute for European Environmental Policy, Alterra Wageningen UR, Ecologic, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre. [A big book]


International Energy Agency (2021). World Energy Outlook 2021.


International Energy Agency (2021). World Energy Model.


International Panel on Climate Change (2018). Scenario Process for AR5.


International Panel on Climate Change (2021). Worlds Apart: A Story of Three Possible Warmer Worlds. [Visually compelling and concise.]


International Panel on Climate Change (2022). IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas: Regional Information. [Get different impact results by region for different scenarios.]


International Resource Panel (2019). Global Resources Outlook. United Nations Environment Programme.


IPIECA (2019). The Role of Scenario Analysis in Climate Reporting. [Survey of scenario analyses by oil companies.]


Irfan, U (2021). What’s the Worst that Could Happen? Vox, Sept. 10. [Provides an easy to read overview of the 2021 IPCC scenario assumptions.]


Islam, S, Cheng, H, Helgason, K, Hunt, N, Kawamura, H and LaFleur. M (2020). Sustainable Development Outlook 2020. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.


Johnson, J, Baldos, U, Hertel, T, Liu, J, Nootenboom, C, Polasky, S and Roxburgh, T (2020). Global Futures: Modelling the Global Economic Impacts of Environmental Change to Support Policy-making. World Wildlife Fund Technical Report.


Kahane, A (2013). Transformative Scenario Planning: A Tool for Systemic Change. Social Space: 16-22.


Kepner, W, Ramsey, M, Brown, E, Jarchow, M, Dickinson, K and Mark, A (2012). Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services. Ecosphere, 3(7).


KeyBer, L and Lenzen, M (2021). 1.5°C Degrowth Scenarios Suggest the Need for New Mitigation Pathways. Nature Communications, 12.


Kopnina, H (2014). Future Scenarios and Environmental Education. The Journal of Environmental Education, 45(4).


Kosow, H and Gabner, R (2008). Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis. Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria. The German Development Institute. [115 pages]


Kuhnhenn, K (2018). Economic Growth in Mitigation Scenarios: A Blind Spot in Climate Science. Heinrich Böll Foundation.


Lau, W et al., (2020). Evaluating Scenarios Toward Zero Plastic Pollution. Science, 369(6510).


Leadley, P, Pereira, H, Alkemade, R, Fernandez-Manjarrés, J, Proença, V, Scharlemann, J, Walpole, M (2010) Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Technical Series no. 50. [With examples of tipping point mechanisms and feedback loops.]


Lempert, R, Preston, B, Edmonds, J, Clarke, L, Wild, T, Binsted, M, Diringer, E and Townsend, B (2019). Pathways to 2050: Alternative Scenarios for Decarbonizing the US Economy. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.


Lloyd’s of London (2015). Food System Shock: The Insurance Impacts of Acute Disruption to Global Food Supply.


Lyon, C et al., (2021). Our Climate Projections for 2500 Show an Earth that is Alien to Humans. The Conversation, Sept. 26.


Maier, J, Guillaume, J, van Delden, H, Riddell, G, Haasnoot, M and Kwakkel, J (2016). An Uncertain Future, Deep Uncertainty, Scenarios, Robustness and Adaptation: How Do they Fit Together? Environmental Modeling & Software, 81: 154-164.


Marzec, R (2018). Securing the Future in the Anthropocene: A Critical Analysis of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 6.


Maslin, M (2021). Climate Change: How Bad Could the Future be if We Do Nothing? The Conversation, May 6.


Mavrommati, G, Rogers, S, Howarth, R and Borusk, M (2020). Representing Future Generations in the Deliberative Valuation of Ecosystem Services. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 8.


McPhearson, T, Iwaniec, D and Bai, X (2016). Positive Visions for Guiding Urban Transformations Toward Sustainable Futures. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 22: 33-40.


Meyer, N (2018). Using Scenarios to Assess and Report Climate-Related Financial Risk. C2ES – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.


Meyer, R (2019). Are We Living Through Climate Change’s Worst-Case Scenario? The Atlantic, Jan. 15.


Mietzner, D and Reger, G (2004). Paper 3 : Scenario Approaches – History, Differences, Advantages and Disadvantages. EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, Seville.


Mietzner, D and Reger, G (2005). Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2).


Milkoreit, M (2017). Imaginary Politics: Climate Change and Making the Future. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 5.


Mische, A (2016). Reflection on Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization. Great Transition Initiative, Tellus Institute.


Mitchell, A and Chaudhury, A (2020). Worlding Beyond ‘the’ ‘End’ of ‘the World’: White Apocalyptic Visions and BIPOC Futurisms. International Relations, 34(3).


Molotoks, A, Henry, R, Stehfest, E, Doelman, J, Havlik, P, Krisztin, T, Alexander, P, Dawson, T and Smith, P (2020). Comparing the Impact of Future Cropland Expansion on Global Biodiversity and Carbon Storage Across Models and Scenarios. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 375.


Moore, M and Milkoreit, M (2020). Imagination and Transformations to Sustainable and Just Futures. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 8(1).


Moriarty, P and Hannery, D (2016). Uncertainty, Utopia, and the Contested Future, in Scott, J (ed.) Transdiscourse 2: Turbulence and Reconstruction. 


Moriarty, P and Honnery, D (2017). Three Futures: Nightmare, Diversion, Vision. World Futures, 74(2).


Morgan, D (2009). World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race. Futures, 41(10).


Morrissey, J, Axon, S, Hillman, J, Moninero Perez, S, Lennon, B and Dunphy, N (2017). Innovation Pathways to Transition. ENTRUST.


Moslin, M (2021). The Year 2100 is Going to Be One of 2 Monumental Scenarios. Inverse, May 22.


The Mowat Centre (2014). Future State 2030: The Global Megatrends Shaping Governments. KPMG International Cooperative.


Nakicenovic, N, Lempert, R and Janetos, A (2014). Special Issue: A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research. Climatic Change, 122(3).


The National Intelligence Council (2021). Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World.


The Nature Conservancy (2018). The Science of Sustainability: Exploring a Unified Path for Development and Conservation.


Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (2021). Scenarios Portal. [Interactive web site.]


Neumeyer, J (2021). They Are Stuck in Freezing Woods, and ‘Fortress Europe’ Won’t Let Them In. The New York Times, Oct. 6.


Olesen, A, Bjerre, A, Svendsen, S (1996).  Managing the Future.  Member’s Report no. 3-1996. Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. pdf


O’Neill, B et al., (2014). A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Climatic Change, 122.


O’Neill, B et al., (2017). The Roads Ahead: Narratives for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Describing World Futures in the 21st Century. Global Environmental Change, 42: 169-180.


Ozkayanak, B et al., (2018). Chapter 16: Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation,in Global Environmental Outlook 5. United Nations Environment Programme.


Paltsev, S, Schlosser, A, Chen, H, Gao, X, Gurgel, A, Jacoby, H, Morris, J, Prinn, R, Sokolov, A and Strzepek, K (2021). 2021 Global Change Outlook.  MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.


Peters, A (2021). What Does Our Climate-changed Future Look Like? Here are Three Possibilities. Fast Company, Oct. 12.


Peters, C Picardy, J, Darrouzet-Nardi, A, Wilkins, J, Griffin, T and Fick G (2016). Carrying Capacity of U.S. Agricultural Land: Ten Diet Scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 4.


Prins, A and Kok, M (2011). Global Environmental Perspectives on Scarcity within the Water – Energy – Land Nexus. Background paper to the European Report on Development 2011/2012: Confronting Scarcity: Managing Water, Energy and Land for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth.


Raskin, P (2016). Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization. Tellus Institute.


Raskin, P, Electris, C and Rosen, R (2010). The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability. Sustainability, 2: 2626-2651.


Raskin, P, Banuri, T, Gallopin, G, Gutman, P, Hammond, A, Kates, R, and Swart, R (2002). Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead.  Stockholm Environmental Institute.


Riahi, K, and 45 co-authors (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their Energy, Land Use, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications: An Overview. Global Environmental Change, 42: 153-168.


Rigby, V et al., (2022). A National Security Strategy for the 2020s: How Canada Can Adapt to a Deteriorating Security Environment. Task Force on National Security of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.


Rogelj, J et al., (2018). Scenarios Towards Limiting Global Mean Temperature Increase Below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change, 8.


Rohat, G (2018). Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(3).


Rosengrant, M, Cai, X, and Cline, S (2002). World Water and Food to 2025: Dealing with Scarcity. International Food Policy Research Institute.


Roy, S, Chen, L, Girvetz, E, Maurer, E, Mills, W and Grieb, T (2010). Evaluating Sustainability of Projected Water Demands Under Future Climate Change Scenarios. Tetra Tech.


Saritas, O and Smith, J (2011). The Big Picture – Trends, Drivers, Wild Cards, Discontinuities and Weak Signals. Futures, 43(3).


Satoh, Y, Kahil, T, Byers, E, Burek, P, Fischer, G, Tramberend, S, Greve, P, Flörke, M, Eisner, S, Hanasaki, N, Magnuszewski, P, Fabiola Nava, L, Cosgrove, W, Langan, S and Wada, Y (2017). Multimodel and Multiscenario Assessments of Asian Water Futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. Earth’s Future, 5(7).


Schandl, H, Hatfield-Dodds, Weidmann, T, Geschke, A, Cai, Y, West, J, Newth, D, Baynes,T, Lenzen, M and Owen, A (2016). Decoupling Global Environmental Pressure and Economic Growth: Scenarios for Energy Use, Materials Use and Carbon Emissions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 132.


Shell International BV (2016). A Better Life with a Healthy Planet: Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions. [Shell would like you to know that they got this.]


Sheppard, S, Shaw, A, Flanders, D, Burch, S, Wiek, A, Carmichael, J, Robinson, J and Cohen, S (2011). Future Visioning of Local Climate Change: A Framework for Community Engagement and Planning with Scenarios and Visualization. Futures, 43.


Sleeter, B, Wilson, T, Sharygin, E and Sherba, J (2017). Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends. Earth’s Future, 5(11).


Spangenberg, J (2018). Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies. An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios. Sustainability, 10(10).


Spratt, D and Dunlop, I (2019a). The Third Degree: Evidence and implications for Australia of existential climate-related security risk. Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration. Discussion Paper.


Spratt, D and Dunlop, I (2019b). Existential Climate-related Security Risk: A Scenario Approach. Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration. Discussion Paper.


Star, J, Rowland, E, Black, M, Enquist, C, Garfin, G, Hoffman, C, Hartman, H, Jacobs, K, Moss, R and Waple, A (2016). Supporting Adaptation Decisions Through Scenario Planning: Enabling the Effective Use of Multiple Methods. Climate Risk Management, 13.


Steinberg, N (2019). Scenario Analysis for Physical Climate Risk: Foundations. Four Twenty Seven Newsletter, June 17. Moody’s Corporation.


Steinberg, N, Gannon, C and Turner, J (2019).  Demystifying Climate Scenario Analysis for Financial Stakeholders. Four Twenty Seven Report, Moody’s Corporation.


Stichele, M (2020). Asia’s Dystopian Future? Why Banks Need to Put Sustainable Finance Clearly in their Sights. Fair Finance Asia.


Stid, D (2019). The Futures of Congress: Scenarios for the US 2050 Project. Peter G. Peterson Foundation.


Stockholm Resilience Centre (2019). Imagine the Future: Six Characteristics Necessary to Make Scenario Processes More Inclusive and Able to Address Complex and Context-specific Problems.


Tallis, H (2019). A More Sustainable Path to 2050. The Nature Conservancy, Aug. 30.


Timmermans, F and Katainen, J (2019). Reflection Paper - Towards a Sustainable Europe by 2030. European Commission.


Tollefson, J (2021). Top Climate Scientists are Sceptical that Nations Will Rein in Global Warming. Nature, 599.


Tonn, B, Frymier, P, Graves, J and Meyers, J (2010). A Sustainable Energy Scenario for the United States: Year 2050. Sustainability, 2.


Turner, G (2014). Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Historical Data. Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute. Research Paper No. 4.


University of Washington Urban Ecology Research Lab (2008).  Puget Sound Future Scenarios.


Van Vuuren, D, Kok, M, Girod, B, Lucas, P and de Vries, B (2012). Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key Characteristics and Lessons for Future Use. Global Environmental Change, 22(4).


Van Vuuren, D. et al., (2018). Alternative Pathways to the 1.5°C Target Reduce the Need for Negative Emission Technologies. Nature Climate Change, 8.


Victor, P (2012). Growth, Degrowth and Climate Change: A Scenario Analysis. Ecological Economics, 84.


Warszawski, L et al., (2021). All Options, Not Silver Bullets, Needed to Limit Global Warming to 1.5 °C: A Scenario Appraisal. Environmental Research Letters, 16.


Wayman, S (2009). Futures Thinking, in Villiers-Stuart, P and Stibbe, A (eds.) The Handbook of Sustainability Literacy. UIT Cambridge Ltd.


Wells, P, Abouarghoub, W, Pettit, S and Beresford, A (2020). A Socio-technical Transitions Perspective for Assessing Future Sustainability Following the COVID-19 Pandemic. Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy, 16.


World Business Council Scenario Unit (2000). Biotechnology Scenarios 2000-2050: Using the Future to Explore the Present. World Business Council for Sustainable Development.  


World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2006). Business in the World of Water: WBCSD Water Scenarios to 2025.


World Economic Forum (2018). Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry.


World Energy Outlook Team, Directorate of Sustainability (2022). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency.


World Ocean Review (2017). The IPCC Scenarios, in World Ocean Review 5: Coasts – A Vital Habitat Under Pressure.


Xue, J, Walnum, H, Aall, C and Naess, P (2017). Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society. Sustainability, 9(1):



To the Home Page

Back to the Previous Section

On to the Next Section


Last Updated – June 16, 2022