Contact Information

Theo S. Eicher

Castor Professor in Economics

Department of Economics, 305 Savery Hall Box 353330

University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA


Tel: 206.685.8082




Current Positions


Castor Professor in Economics, University of Washington


Professor, Department of Economics, University of Washington


Director, Economic Policy Research Center, University of Washington


Research Fellow, CesIfo Research Network, at the University of Munich


Research Fellow, IZA Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn


Affiliate Professor, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington


Affiliate Professor, Center for Global Studies, UW Jackson School of International Studies


Advisory Council, Revista de Ciencias Económicas



Former Positions


Robert R. Richards Distinguished Scholar, University of Washington


Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Washington


Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Washington


Preceptor, Dept. of Economics Columbia University


Instructor, Dept. of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University


Editor in Chief, European Economic Review


Editor, European Economic Review


Associate Editor, European Economic Review


Editorial Board, Journal of Macroeconomics


Visiting Positions

2022 Visiting Scholar, IMF, (November)


Visiting Scholar, IMF, (October)


Visiting Scholar, IMF, (November)


Visiting Professor, University Aix-Marseille (March)


Visiting Scholar, IMF, (August-December)


Visiting Scholar, IMF, (November)


Research Fellow, IICE, Universidad de Costa Rica


Affiliate Professor, University of Munich


Research Professor, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich


Visiting Professor, University of Leipzig, (April)


Visiting Scholar, IMF, (April)


Visiting Professor, Institute of Advanced Studies, Vienna (September)


Visiting Professor, IZA Institute, Bonn University, (September)


Visiting Professor, Barcelona University, (April)


Visiting Professor, Technical University, Zurich (ETH), (January)


Mercator Research Professor, German Research Foundation (DFG), University of Munich


Visiting Professor, GREQAM, University Aix-Marseille (June)

2000, 1

Visiting Professor, Eberhard-Karls-Universität, Tübingen (February)


Visiting Professor, Center for Economic Studies (CES) University of Munich (June/July)


Visiting Scholar, Nuffield College, Oxford University (Winter)





Ph.D., Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY


M.Phil., Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY


M.A., Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY


Diplom Studiengang, Economics (VWL), Freie Univ. Berlin, Germany


B.A., Chinese Studies, Economics, Grinnell College, Grinnell, IA


Language Certificate, Chinese, Nanjing University, Peoples Republic of China


Abitur, Gymnasium Dormagen, Germany


Phillips Academy, Andover, MA





Endogenous Human Capital and Technological Change in Closed and Open Economies.


Committee: R. Mundell (Chair), R. Findlay, D. Foley, R. Clarida, A. Burgstaller



Honors/Awards / Grants


Research Grant “Trade Diversity and GrowthU.K. Dep't for Int'l Development (DFID)


European-Union-Center of Excellence Research Award “European Productivity Determinants


German Research Foundation Research Grant “Determinants of German Productivity


Center for Statistics and the Social Science Grant “Bayesian Model Averaging, Priors & Growth


German Research Foundation (DFG) Mercator Research Professorship


Royalty Research Fund Grant “Financial Crises


Golden Key International Honor Society “Outstanding Teaching Award


Golden Key International Honor Society Honorary Member


University of Washington, Gowan Faculty Grant


European-Union-Center Research Award “Institutions and Growth


European-Union-Center Conference Grant “Inequality and Growth


Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Research Fellowship


University of Washington, Buechel Undergraduate Teaching Award


University of Washington, Mentoring Award


Royalty Research Fund Grant ”Trade and Wages


Columbia University Ph.D. awarded with Distinction


Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation Fellowship


Columbia University, President’s Fellow


Grinnell College, ISO Fellowship



Research Interests

Trade, Development and Growth, Macroeconomics










Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2003, (with Stephen Turnovsky)(drafts)


Institutions, Development and Growth, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2006, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa)


International Economics, Routledge Press, New York, 2009, (with John Mutti and Michelle Turnovsky).


Information Technology and Productivity Growth: German Trends and OECD Comparisons, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2009, (with Thomas Strobel)


International Economics (Chinese Edition), Gezhi Press, Shanghai, 2013 (with John Mutti and Michelle Turnovsky).


Journals (refereed)

Education, Technological Change and Economic Growth, Inter-American Review of Educational Development, 119, 3 (1994), pp 461-81, (with Thomas Bailey)


Interaction between Endogenous Human Capital and Technological Change, Review of Economic Studies, 63, 1, (January 1996), pp 127-44.


The Human Capital Dimension to Direct Foreign Investment, in Trade, Dynamics and Growth, B. Jensen and K.Y. Wong eds, Michigan University Press, 1997, (with Pantelis Kalaitzidakis).


Transitional Dynamics in Non-Scale Growth Models, in Computing in Economics and Finance, 1997, 105 (with Stephen Turnovsky)


Risk and Financial Development, in Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates Reuven Glick (ed), Cambridge University Press, 1998, (with Steve Turnovsky).


Training, Adverse Selection and Appropriate Technology, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, (April 1999), pp 727-746.


International Capital Markets and Non Scale Growth, Review of International Economics, 7, (May 1999), pp 1-27, (with Steve Turnovsky)


Trade, Development and Converging Growth Rates: Dynamic Gains from Trade Reconsidered,

Journal of International Economics, 48, (June 1999), pp 179-198.


A Generalized Model of Economic Growth, Economic Journal, 109, (July 1999), pp 394-415, (with Steve Turnovsky).


Convergence in a Two Sector Non-Scale Growth Model, Journal of Economic Growth, 4, (December 1999), pp 413-429, (with Steve Turnovsky).


Optimal Policies for Financial Liberalizations, German Economic Review, 1, (February 2000), pp 19-42, (with Steve Turnovsky and Uwe Walz)


Scale, Congestion and Growth, Economica, 67, (August 2000), pp 325-47, (with Steve Turnovsky).


Transitional Dynamics in a Two-Sector Non-Scale Growth Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, (January 2001), pp 85-113, (with Steve Turnovsky).


Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversal, Economic Review, 52, 4, (October 2001), (with Steve Turnovsky and Uwe Walz)


Inequality and Growth: The Dual Role of Human Capital in Development, Journal of Development Economics, 66, (October 2001), pp 173-97, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa )


Protection for Sale: An Empirical Investigation: A Comment, American Economic Review, 92, 5 (December 2002), pp 1702-11, (with Thomas Osang)


An Evolutionary Approach to Technological Change and Growth, Computing in Economics and Finance, 197, (2002), pp (with Klaas vant Veld)


The Impact of Tax Policy on Inequality and Growth: An Empirical and Theoretical Investigation, Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, T.S. Eicher & S.J. Turnovsky eds., Cambridge: MIT Press. 2003, (with Stephen Turnovsky and Carme Riera Prunera)


On the Mechanics of Technical Change: New and Old Ideas in Economic Growth, in Old and New Growth Theories. An Assessment, Neri Salvadori ed., NY, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003


Market Structure and Innovation Revisited: Endogenous Productivity, Training and Market Shares, in Human Capital, Trade And Public Policy In Rapidly Growing Economies, M. Boldrin, B.L. Chen and P. Wang (eds) NY, Edward Elgar, 2004, (with Sang Choon Kim)


Political Support or Contributions: An Empirical Investigation of US Trade Policy, in WTO and World Trade: Challenges in a New Era, G. Heiduk and K.Y. Wong eds. Berlin, Springer Verlag 2004, (with Thomas Osang) (Data/Do Files)


Financial Liberalization, Openness and Convergence, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 13, 4, (December 2004), pp 443–459, (with Leslie Hull)


How Do Institutions Lead Some Countries To Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others? In Institutions for Development and Growth, T.S. Eicher and C. García-Peñalosa (eds) MIT Press 2006, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa and Utku Teksoz)


FDI, Exports or Acquisition: Optimal Entry Modes for Multinational Corporations, Journal of Development Economics, 77, 1, (June 2005), pp 207-228, Reprinted in Multinational Enterprise Theory, Volume II, J. A. Krug, J. D. Daniels eds, Sage Press (2008), (with Jong Woo Kang)


Sources of the German Productivity Demise, German Economic Review, 8, (May 2007), pp 211–236, (with Oliver Roehn)


Unraveling the Fortunes of the Fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29, 3 (September 2007), pp 494-514, (with Chris Papageorgiou and Oliver Roehn)


Endogenous Strength of Intellectual Property Rights: Implications for Economic Development and Growth, European Economic Review, 52, 2, (February 2008), pp 237-58, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa)


The Rise and Fall of German Productivity: Software Investment as the Decisive Driver, Cesifo Economic Studies, 54, 3, (September 2008), pp 386-414, (with Thomas Strobel)


Dynamic Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks: The Impact on Debt and Growth, Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 6, (September 2008), pp 876-896, (with Stefan Schubert and Steve Turnovsky)


In Search of a Sulphur Dioxide Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach, Environment and Development Economics, 13, 6 (December 2008), pp 1-28, (with Jeff Begun) (Data/Do Files)


Institutions and Economic Performance: Endogeneity and Parameter Heterogeneity, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 41, (February 2009), pp 197-219, (with Andreas Leukert) (Data/Do Files)


Corruption, Education and The Distribution of Income, Journal of Economic Growth, 14 (August 2009), pp 205-31, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa and Tanguy van Ypersele)


Structural Policies and Growth: Time Series Evidence from a Natural Experiment, Journal of Development Economics, 91 (2010), pp 169–179, (with Till Schreiber) (Data)


Modeling Uncertainty In Macroeconomic Growth Determinants Using Gaussian Graphical Models, Statistical Methodology, 7, (May 2010), pp 292-306, (with Adrian Dobra and Alex Lenkoski) (Data/Do Files)


In Search of WTO Trade Effects: Preferential Trade Agreements Promote Trade Strongly, But Unevenly, Journal of International Economics, 83, 2, (March 2011), pp 137-154, (with Christian Henn) (Data/Do Files)


Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26, 1, (February 2011), pp 30-55, (with Chris Papageorgiou and Adrian Raftery) (R Scripts)


One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark For the Effects of Currency Unions on Trade Flows, Review of International Economics, 19, (August 2011), pp 419-435, (with Christian Henn) (Data/Do Files )


Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27, (March 2012), pp 296-321, (with Christian Henn and Chris Papageorgiou) (Data/Do Files)


Robust FDI Determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Selection Bias, Journal of Macroeconomics,  34 (September 2012), pp 637–651, (with Lindy Helfman and Alex Lenkoski) (Data/Do Files)


Intellectual Property Rights as Development Determinants, Canadian Journal of Economics, 46 (February 2013), pp 4-22 (with Monique Newiak) (Data/R Scripts)


Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity Under Model Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants, Econometric Reviews, 33, (February 2014), pp 122-51 (with Alex Lenkoski and Adrian Raftery) (R Script)


Did Established Early Warning Signals Predict the 2008 Crises? European Economic Review, 90 (January 2016), pp 103-14 (with Charis Christofides and Chris Papageorgiou) (Data/R Scripts)


The Elusive Effect of Trade on Growth, Canadian Journal of Economics, 49, (February 2016), pp 264-95 (with David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts)


Constitutional Determinants of Social Infrastructure, Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, (Sept 2018), pp 182-209 (with Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa and David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts)


European Influence and Economic Development, Canadian Journal of Economics, (May 2019), pp 667-734 (with David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts)


Forecasts in Times of Crises, International Journal of Forecasting, 35, (Jul-Sep 2019), pp 1143-1159 (with David Kuenzel, Chris Papageorgiou and Charis Christofides) (Data/R Scripts)


The Accuracy of IMF Nowcasts, International Journal of Forecasting, 39, Jan-Mar 2023)pp 431-449 (with Yuan Gao Rollinson) (Data/R Scripts)


IMF Trade Forecasts for Crisis Countries: Bias, Inefficiency and their Origins International Journal of Forecasting, 39, Oct-Dec 2023), pp 1615-1639 (with Reina Kawai) (Data/R Scripts)


Housing Prices and Land-Use Regulations: And Study of 250 Major US Cities, Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024 3(1), pp 27-57


Systemic Bias of IMF Reserve and Debt Forecasts for Program Countries International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming (with Reina Kawai) (Data/R Scripts)



Contributions to Books / Journals (not refereed)


The North American Free Trade Agreement and the U.S. Apparel Industry, in U.S.-Mexico Trade: Pulling Together or Pulling Apart?, US Congress, Office of Technological Assessment, ITE-545 (Washington DC, GPO: October 1992), (with Thomas Bailey).


Review of D. Jorgenson, `Productivity', Review of International Economics, (May 1998)


Comments On The Management of Financial Crisis,” in The Worlds New Financial Landscape: Challenges for Economic Policy, H. Siebert ed., Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 2001.


An Economic Framework for Teleconsultation, (with L Clark Johnson), 2004


Washington Port Investment To Capture Future Trade, Washington Business Magazine (OpED), April, 2004


Intellectual Imports, Seattle Times (OpEd), 2005


Employment Trends in Washington State, Testimony to the Washington Legislature, 1/2005


Institutional Determinants of Economic Performance in OECD Countries –An Institutions Climate Index, Journal for Institutional Comparisons, 5, 1, (Spring 2007): 39-49, (with Oliver Roehn)


Guest Editorial: Special Issue on Productivity Growth, German Economic Review, 8, (May 2007), pp 123-4


Outsourcing and Productivity Growth: Sectoral Evidence from Germany, in G. Cette, M. Fouquin and H.-W. Sinn eds, Divergences in Productivity Between Europe and the United States, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, (with Thomas Fuchs and Hans-Guenther Vieweg)


Institutions and Growth in OECD Countries, Journal for Institutional Comparisons, 7, 2, (Summer 2009), pp 24-29, (with Wolfgang Ochel, Oliver Roehn, and Anja Rohwer)


Commercializing Tacit Knowledge, (2009)


Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability In Low-Income Countries – The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification, IMF Policy Papers, 37, (March 2014) (with T.S. Choi, N.D. Duma, C. Henn, N. Gigineishvili, G. Ho, D. Kuenzel, A. Pitt, C. Papageorgiou, S. Rosa, K. Wang)


Current Research/Working Papers

(please follow this link to my working papers)


Invited Presentations

Keynote/Plenary Lectures

Keynote Speaker, "Macro-Prudential Policies" Conference, Nanjing School of Finance & Economics (2016)

Keynote Speaker, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade Conference. Geneva Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (2015, invited)

Keynote Speaker, Sustainable Resource Use and Economic Dynamics Conference, University of Zurich (2006)

Keynote Speaker, Economic Growth and Institutions Conference, University of Copenhagen (2005)

Keynote Speaker, Structural Change and Labor Markets Conference, IZA University of Bonn (2005)

Plenary Lecture, Pisa University (October 2001). Old and New Growth Theories Conference (2001)


Lectures Series

Universidad de Costa Rica, (May/June 2012). Crisis Early Warning Signals and Economic Growth

University of Munich, (March 2009). Advanced Topics in Economics Growth: Model Uncertainty

University of Leipzig, (April 2008). Frontiers of Macroeconomics and Growth

Vienna Institute of Advanced Studies, (September 2006). Innovation and Growth

University of Munich, München (May 2006). Adv. Topics in Economics Growth: Model Selection

Universidad de Barcelona, (April 2004). Institutions and Growth

ETH Technical University of Zurich, (January 2004). Endogenous Institution

University of Munich, (January 2000). Endogenous Growth Theory

University of Tübingen, (February 2000). Non-Scale Growth

University of Tübingen, (May 2001). Empirics of Commercial Policy

University of Munich, (December 2001). Endogenous Tariff Protection


Conferences Organized

European Workshop in Macroeconomics (Munich, July 2010) (co-organizer with M. Doepke, G. Illing, M. Piazzesi, and M. Schneider).

Determinants of Productivity Growth (Vienna, September 2006)

Education and the 21st Century Workforce (Seattle, July 2005, co-organizer)

Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation ( Seattle, February 2005, co-organizer)

Institutions and Growth (Venice July 2004, co-organizer)

Growth and Inequality (Munich, May 2001, co-organizer)

Old and New Growth Theories (Pisa, October 2001, scientific committee)

Growth and Inequality Policy Implications (Elmau, January 2002, co-organizer)

WTO and World Trade III ( Duisburg, June 2002, program committee)

WTO and World Trade IV (Seattle, September 2002, program committee)

Society for Computational Economics Annual Meeting (Seattle, July 2003, program co-chair)

Institutions and Growth (Venice, CESifo Summer Institute July 2004, program co-chair)


Conference Sessions Organized

Trade and Growth Sessions, Society for Computational Economics, (Cambridge, UK, July 1998)

Technology, Infrastructure and Credit in Development, AEA (New York, 1999)

Trade and Growth Sessions, Society for Computational Economics, (Boston, July 1999)

Trade and Convergence Sessions Society for Computational Economics, (Aix En Province, June 2002)


Referee Activity

American Economic Review, Canadian Journal of Economics, Economic Inquiry, Econometrica, Economica, Economic Journal, European Economic Review, German Economic Review, International Economic Review, International Review of Economics/Metroeconomica, Japanese Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Integration, Journal of Economics, Journal of Empirical Economics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Louvain Economic Review, National Science Foundation, Oxford Economic Papers, Review of Economic Studies, Review of International Economics, Royalty Research Fund, Southern Economic Journal, Verein Für Sozialpolitik.


Teaching Experience


International Trade;

Macroeconomics (Introduction, Intermediate, Advanced),

International Macroeconomics,

International Finance,

Topics in Economic Growth,

Urban Economics,

Sustainable Development and Growth;


Graduate / PhD:

Trade Theory;

Commercial Policy;

Advanced Growth Theory,

Advanced Macro Theory and Empirics.


Link to Former Graduate Students I supervised