CURRICULUM VITAE
THEO S. EICHER
Contact Information
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Theo
S. Eicher |
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Castor Professor in Economics |
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Department
of Economics, 305 Savery Hall Box 353330 |
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Tel:
206.685.8082 |
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Web: http://faculty.washington.edu/te/ |
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Email: te@u.washington.edu |
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Current
Positions
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2012- |
Castor Professor in
Economics, |
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2006- |
Professor, Department of Economics, University of |
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2003- |
Director, Economic |
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2003- |
Research Fellow, CesIfo Research Network, at the
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2004- |
Research Fellow, IZA Institute for the Study of Labor, |
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2005- |
Affiliate Professor, |
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2000-
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Affiliate Professor, |
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2013- |
Advisory Council, Revista de Ciencias Económicas |
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Former
Positions
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2004-12 |
Robert R. Richards
Distinguished Scholar, |
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2000-06 |
Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics, |
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1994-00 |
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics, |
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1992-94 |
Preceptor, Dept. of |
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1992 |
Instructor, Dept. of |
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2015-18 |
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2011-15 |
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2007-11 |
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2007-16 |
Editorial Board, Journal of
Macroeconomics |
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Visiting
Positions
| 2022 | Visiting Scholar, IMF, (November) |
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2016 |
Visiting Scholar,
IMF, (October) |
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2015 |
Visiting Scholar,
IMF, (November) |
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2014 |
Visiting Professor,
University Aix-Marseille (March) |
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2013 |
Visiting Scholar,
IMF, (August-December) |
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2012 |
Visiting Scholar,
IMF, (November) |
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2011-12 |
Research Fellow, IICE, Universidad de Costa Rica |
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2008-11 |
Affiliate Professor,
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2003-11 |
Research Professor,
Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the |
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2008 |
Visiting
Professor, |
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2007 |
Visiting
Scholar, IMF, (April) |
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2006 |
Visiting
Professor, Institute of Advanced Studies, V |
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2004 |
Visiting Professor,
IZA Institute, |
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2004 |
Visiting Professor,
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2004 |
Visiting Professor,
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2003-4 |
Mercator Research Professor,
German Research Foundation (DFG), |
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2002 |
Visiting Professor,
GREQAM, University Aix-Marseille (June) |
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2000, 1 |
Visiting
Professor,
Eberhard-Karls-Universität, Tübingen (February) |
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2000-07 |
Visiting Professor,
Center for Economic Studies (CES) |
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1999 |
Visiting Scholar,
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Education
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1994 |
Ph.D., Economics, |
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1993 |
M.Phil., Economics, |
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1991 |
M.A., Economics, |
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1989 |
Diplom Studiengang, Economics (VWL),
Freie Univ. Berlin, Germany |
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1988 |
B.A., Chinese Studies,
Economics, |
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1987 |
Language Certificate,
Chinese, |
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1985 |
Abitur, Gymnasium |
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1983 |
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Dissertation
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1994 |
Endogenous Human Capital and Technological Change in Closed
and Open Economies. |
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Committee: R. Mundell (Chair), R. Findlay, D. Foley, R. Clarida, A. Burgstaller |
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Honors/Awards
/ Grants
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2013 |
Research
Grant “Trade Diversity and Growth” |
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2009 |
European-Union-Center
of Excellence Research Award “European Productivity Determinants” |
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2006 |
German
Research Foundation Research Grant “Determinants of German Productivity” |
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2006 |
Center
for Statistics and the Social Science Grant “Bayesian Model Averaging,
Priors & Growth” |
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2004 |
German Research
Foundation (DFG) Mercator Research Professorship |
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2003 |
Royalty Research
Fund Grant “Financial Crises” |
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2003 |
Golden Key
International Honor Society “Outstanding Teaching Award” |
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2003 |
Golden Key
International Honor Society Honorary Member |
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2002 |
University of
Washington, Gowan Faculty Grant |
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2002 |
European-Union-Center
Research Award “Institutions and Growth” |
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2001 |
European-Union-Center
Conference Grant “Inequality and Growth” |
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1999 |
Alexander von
Humboldt Foundation Research Fellowship |
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1998 |
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1997 |
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1997 |
Royalty Research
Fund Grant ”Trade and Wages” |
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1994 |
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1991-2 |
Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation Fellowship |
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1989-92 |
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1985-88 |
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Research
Interests
Trade, Development and Growth,
Macroeconomics
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Publications
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Books
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Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, Institutions,
Development and Growth,
International Economics, Information Technology and Productivity Growth: German
Trends and OECD Comparisons, Edward Elgar Publishing, International Economics (Chinese Edition), Journals
(refereed) Education, Technological Change and Economic Growth,
Inter-American Review of Educational Development, 119, 3 (1994), pp 461-81, (with Thomas Bailey)
Interaction between Endogenous Human Capital and
Technological Change, Review of Economic Studies, 63, 1, (January 1996), pp 127-44.
The Human Capital Dimension to Direct Foreign
Investment, in Trade,
Dynamics and Growth, B.
Jensen and K.Y. Wong eds,
Michigan University Press, 1997, (with Pantelis
Kalaitzidakis). Transitional
Dynamics in Non-Scale Growth Models, in
Computing
in Economics and Finance, 1997,
105 (with Stephen Turnovsky) Risk and
Financial Development, in Managing
Capital Flows and Exchange Rates Reuven Glick (ed),
Cambridge University Press, 1998, (with Steve
Turnovsky). Training, Adverse Selection and Appropriate Technology,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, (April
1999), pp 727-746.
International Capital Markets and Non Scale Growth,
Review of International Economics, 7, (May 1999), pp 1-27, (with
Steve Turnovsky) Trade, Development and Converging Growth Rates: Dynamic
Gains from Trade Reconsidered, Journal
of International Economics,
48, (June 1999), pp 179-198. A Generalized Model of Economic Growth, Economic
Journal, 109, (July
1999), pp 394-415, (with Steve Turnovsky).
Convergence in a Two Sector Non-Scale Growth Model,
Journal of Economic Growth, 4, (December 1999), pp 413-429, (with
Steve Turnovsky).
Optimal Policies for Financial Liberalizations,
German Economic Review, 1, (February 2000), pp 19-42, (with Steve Turnovsky and Uwe Walz)
Scale, Congestion and Growth, Economica,
67, (August 2000), pp 325-47, (with Steve
Turnovsky).
Transitional Dynamics in a Two-Sector Non-Scale Growth
Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, (January 2001), pp 85-113, (with
Steve Turnovsky). Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversal,
Economic Review, 52,
4, (October 2001), (with Steve
Turnovsky and Uwe Walz)
Inequality and Growth: The Dual Role of Human Capital in
Development, Journal of Development Economics, 66, (October 2001), pp 173-97, (with
Cecilia García-Peñalosa ) Protection for Sale: An Empirical Investigation: A
Comment, American Economic Review, 92, 5 (December
2002), pp 1702-11, (with Thomas Osang) An Evolutionary Approach to Technological Change and
Growth, Computing in Economics and Finance, 197,
(2002), pp (with Klaas vant
Veld) The Impact of Tax Policy on Inequality and Growth: An
Empirical and Theoretical Investigation, Inequality and Growth:
Theory and Policy Implications, T.S.
Eicher & S.J. Turnovsky eds., On the Mechanics of Technical Change: New and Old Ideas
in Economic Growth, in Old
and New Growth Theories. An Assessment, Neri Salvadori ed., NY, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003 Market Structure and Innovation Revisited: Endogenous
Productivity, Training and Market Shares, in
Human Capital, Trade And Public
Policy In Rapidly Growing Economies,
M. Boldrin, B.L. Chen and P. Wang (eds) NY, Edward Elgar, 2004, (with Sang Choon Kim) Political Support or Contributions: An Empirical
Investigation of US Trade Policy, in WTO and World Trade: Challenges in a New Era, G. Heiduk and K.Y. Wong eds. Berlin, Springer Verlag 2004,
(with
Thomas Osang) (Data/Do Files)
Financial
Liberalization, Openness and Convergence, Journal of
International Trade and Economic Development, 13, 4, (December 2004), pp 443–459, (with
Leslie Hull)
How Do Institutions Lead Some Countries To Produce So
Much More Output Per Worker Than Others? In Institutions for Development and Growth, T.S. Eicher and C. García-Peñalosa
(eds) MIT Press 2006, (with Cecilia
García-Peñalosa and Utku
Teksoz) FDI, Exports or Acquisition: Optimal Entry Modes for
Multinational Corporations, Journal of Development Economics,
77, 1, (June 2005), pp 207-228, Reprinted in Multinational Enterprise Theory, Volume
II, J. A. Krug, J. D.
Daniels eds, Sage
Press (2008), (with Jong Woo
Kang)
Sources of the
German Productivity Demise, German Economic Review,
8, (May 2007), pp 211–236, (with Oliver
Roehn) Unraveling the Fortunes of the Fortunate: An Iterative
Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach, Journal of
Macroeconomics, 29,
3 (September 2007), pp 494-514, (with Chris
Papageorgiou and Oliver Roehn) Endogenous Strength of Intellectual Property Rights:
Implications for Economic Development and Growth, European
Economic Review, 52, 2, (February 2008), pp 237-58, (with
Cecilia García-Peñalosa)
The Rise and Fall of German Productivity: Software
Investment as the Decisive Driver, Cesifo Economic Studies,
54, 3, (September 2008), pp 386-414, (with
Thomas Strobel) Dynamic Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks: The Impact on
Debt and Growth, Journal of
International Money and Finance, 27,
6, (September 2008), pp 876-896, (with
Stefan Schubert and Steve Turnovsky) In Search of a
Sulphur Dioxide Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Bayesian Model Averaging
Approach, Environment and Development Economics, 13, 6 (December 2008), pp 1-28, (with
Jeff Begun) (Data/Do Files)
Institutions and Economic Performance: Endogeneity and
Parameter Heterogeneity, Journal of Money Credit and
Banking, 41, (February 2009), pp 197-219, (with Andreas Leukert) (Data/Do Files)
Corruption, Education and The Distribution of Income,
Journal of Economic Growth, 14 (August 2009), pp 205-31, (with
Cecilia García-Peñalosa and
Tanguy van Ypersele)
Structural
Policies and Growth: Time Series Evidence from a Natural Experiment,
Journal of Development Economics, 91 (2010), pp 169–179, (with Till
Schreiber) (Data)
Modeling Uncertainty In Macroeconomic
Growth Determinants Using Gaussian Graphical Models, Statistical
Methodology, 7, (May 2010), pp 292-306, (with Adrian
Dobra and Alex Lenkoski) (Data/Do Files)
In Search of WTO Trade Effects: Preferential Trade
Agreements Promote Trade Strongly, But Unevenly, Journal of
International Economics, 83, 2, (March 2011), pp 137-154, (with
Christian Henn) (Data/Do Files)
Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian
Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants, Journal
of Applied Econometrics, 26, 1, (February 2011), pp 30-55, (with
Chris Papageorgiou and Adrian Raftery) (R Scripts)
One Money, One Market:
A Revised Benchmark For the Effects of Currency Unions on Trade Flows,
Review of International Economics,
19,
(August 2011), pp 419-435, (with Christian
Henn) (Data/Do Files )
Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for
Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects, Journal
of Applied Econometrics, 27, (March 2012), pp 296-321, (with Christian Henn and Chris Papageorgiou) (Data/Do Files)
Robust FDI Determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the
Presence of Selection Bias, Journal of
Macroeconomics, 34 (September 2012), pp
637–651, (with Lindy Helfman
and Alex Lenkoski)
(Data/Do Files)
Intellectual Property Rights as Development Determinants,
Canadian Journal of Economics,
46 (February 2013), pp 4-22 (with Monique
Newiak) (Data/R Scripts)
Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity
Under Model Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants, Econometric Reviews, 33, (February 2014), pp 122-51 (with Alex Lenkoski and Did Established
Early Warning Signals Predict the 2008 Crises? European
Economic Review, 90 (January
2016), pp 103-14 (with Charis Christofides and Chris Papageorgiou) (Data/R Scripts) The Elusive Effect of Trade on Growth, Canadian Journal of
Economics, 49,
(February 2016), pp 264-95 (with David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts) Constitutional Determinants of Social
Infrastructure, Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, (Sept 2018), pp 182-209 (with Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa and David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts)
European
Influence and Economic Development, Canadian Journal of Economics, (May 2019), pp 667-734 (with David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts)
Forecasts in Times of Crises, International Journal of Forecasting, 35, (Jul-Sep 2019), pp 1143-1159 (with David Kuenzel, Chris
Papageorgiou and Charis Christofides) (Data/R Scripts)
The Accuracy of IMF Nowcasts, International Journal of Forecasting, 39, Jan-Mar 2023)pp 431-449 (with Yuan Gao Rollinson) (Data/R Scripts)
IMF Trade
Forecasts for Crisis Countries: Bias, Inefficiency and their Origins International
Journal of Forecasting, 39, Oct-Dec 2023), pp 1615-1639 (with Reina Kawai) (Data/R Scripts)
Housing Prices and Land-Use Regulations: And Study of 250 Major US Cities, Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024 3(1), pp 27-57
Systemic Bias of IMF Reserve and Debt Forecasts for Program Countries International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming (with Reina Kawai) (Data/R Scripts)
Contributions
to Books / Journals (not refereed) The North American Free Trade Agreement and the U.S.
Apparel Industry, in
U.S.-Mexico Trade: Pulling Together
or Pulling Apart?, US
Congress, Office of Technological Assessment, ITE-545 (Washington
DC, GPO: October 1992), (with
Thomas Bailey). Review of D. Jorgenson,
`Productivity', Review
of International Economics,
(May 1998) Comments On The Management of
Financial Crisis,” in The
Worlds New Financial Landscape: Challenges for Economic Policy, H. Siebert ed., Springer Verlag, An Economic Framework for Teleconsultation, (with
L Clark Johnson), 2004 Washington Port Investment To Capture Future Trade,
Washington
Business Magazine (OpED), April, 2004 Intellectual Imports, Seattle Times (OpEd),
2005 Employment Trends in Washington State, Testimony
to the Washington Legislature, 1/2005 Institutional Determinants of Economic Performance in
OECD Countries –An Institutions Climate Index, Journal for
Institutional Comparisons, 5, 1, (Spring 2007): 39-49, (with
Oliver Roehn) Guest Editorial: Special
Issue on Productivity Growth, German Economic Review, 8, (May 2007), pp 123-4
Outsourcing and Productivity Growth: Sectoral
Evidence from Germany, in G.
Cette, M. Fouquin and H.-W. Sinn eds,
Divergences in Productivity Between
Europe and the United States, Edward Elgar, Institutions and Growth in OECD Countries, Journal
for Institutional Comparisons, 7, 2, (Summer 2009), pp 24-29, (with
Wolfgang Ochel, Oliver
Roehn, and Anja Rohwer) Commercializing Tacit Knowledge, (2009) Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability
In Low-Income Countries – The Role of Structural Transformation and
Diversification, IMF Policy Papers, 37,
(March 2014) (with T.S. Choi, N.D. Duma, C. Henn,
N. Gigineishvili, G. Ho, D. Kuenzel, A. Pitt, C.
Papageorgiou, S. Rosa, K. Wang) Current
Research/Working Papers (please follow this link to my working papers) |
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Invited
Presentations
Keynote/Plenary
Lectures
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Keynote Speaker, "Macro-Prudential Policies"
Conference, Nanjing School of Finance & Economics (2016) |
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Keynote Speaker, Dynamics, Economic
Growth, and International Trade Conference. Geneva Graduate Institute of
International and Development Studies (2015, invited) |
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Keynote Speaker, Sustainable Resource Use
and Economic Dynamics Conference, |
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Keynote Speaker, Economic Growth and
Institutions Conference, |
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Keynote Speaker, Structural Change and Labor Markets
Conference, |
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Plenary Lecture, |
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Lectures
Series
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Universidad de Costa Rica, (May/June 2012). Crisis Early Warning Signals and Economic Growth |
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University of |
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University of Leipzig |
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Vienna Institute of
Advanced Studies, (September 2006). Innovation and Growth |
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University of |
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Universidad de
Barcelona, (April 2004). Institutions and Growth |
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ETH Technical |
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University of |
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University of |
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University of |
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University of |
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Conferences
Organized
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European Workshop in Macroeconomics ( |
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Determinants of Productivity Growth ( |
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Education and the 21st Century Workforce ( |
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Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation ( |
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Institutions and Growth ( |
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Growth and Inequality ( |
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Old and New Growth Theories ( |
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Growth and Inequality Policy Implications (Elmau, January 2002,
co-organizer) |
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WTO and World Trade III ( |
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WTO and World Trade IV
(Seattle, September 2002, program committee) |
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Society for Computational Economics Annual Meeting ( |
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Institutions and Growth (Venice,
CESifo Summer Institute July 2004, program
co-chair) |
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Conference
Sessions Organized
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Trade and Growth Sessions, Society for Computational Economics, (Cambridge, UK, July 1998) |
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Technology, Infrastructure and Credit in Development, AEA (New York, 1999) |
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Trade and Growth
Sessions, Society for Computational
Economics, (Boston, July 1999) |
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Trade and
Convergence Sessions
Society for Computational Economics, (Aix En Province, June 2002) |
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Referee
Activity
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American Economic Review, Canadian
Journal of Economics, Economic Inquiry, Econometrica,
Economica, Economic Journal, European Economic
Review, German Economic Review, International Economic Review, International
Review of Economics/Metroeconomica, Japanese
Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic
Behavior and Organization, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal
of Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Integration, Journal of Economics,
Journal of Empirical Economics, Journal of International Economics, Journal
of International Money and Finance, Journal of International Trade and
Economic Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Macroeconomic
Dynamics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Louvain
Economic Review, National Science Foundation, Oxford Economic Papers, Review
of Economic Studies, Review of International Economics, Royalty Research
Fund, Southern Economic Journal, Verein Für Sozialpolitik. |
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Teaching
Experience
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Undergraduate: International
Trade; Macroeconomics
(Introduction, Intermediate, Advanced), International Macroeconomics, International Finance,
Topics
in Economic Growth,
Urban
Economics, Sustainable
Development and Growth; Graduate / PhD: Trade
Theory; Commercial
Policy; Advanced
Growth Theory, Advanced
Macro Theory and Empirics. |
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Link to Former Graduate Students
I supervised