CURRICULUM VITAE
THEO S. EICHER
Contact Information
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Theo
S. Eicher |
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Castor
Professor in Economics |
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Department
of Economics, 305 Savery Hall, Box 353330 |
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University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
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Tel:
206.685.8082 |
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Web:
http://faculty.washington.edu/te/ |
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Email: te@u.washington.edu |
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Current Positions
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2012- |
Castor
Professor in Economics, University of Washington |
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2006- |
Professor, Department of
Economics, University of Washington |
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2003- |
Director,
Economic Policy Research Center, University of Washington |
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2003- |
Research
Fellow,
CESifo Research Network, at the University of Munich |
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2004- |
Research
Fellow,
IZA Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn |
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2005- |
Affiliate
Professor,
Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington |
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2000- |
Affiliate
Professor,
Center for Global Studies, UW Jackson School of International Studies |
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2013- |
Advisory
Council, Revista de Ciencias Económicas |
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Former Positions
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2004-12 |
Robert R. Richards Distinguished Scholar, University of
Washington |
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2000-06 |
Associate
Professor,
Dept. of Economics, University of Washington |
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1994-00 |
Assistant
Professor,
Dept. of Economics, University of Washington |
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1992-94 |
Preceptor, Dept. of Economics,
Columbia University |
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1992 |
Instructor, Dept. of Economics,
Barnard College, Columbia University |
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2015-18 |
Editor
in Chief,
European Economic Review |
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2011-15 |
Editor, European Economic
Review |
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2007-11 |
Associate
Editor,
European Economic Review |
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2007-16 |
Editorial
Board,
Journal of Macroeconomics |
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Visiting Positions
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2022 |
Visiting
Scholar,
IMF, (November) |
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2016 |
Visiting Scholar, IMF, (October) |
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2015 |
Visiting Scholar, IMF, (November) |
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2014 |
Visiting Professor, University of Aix-Marseille,
(March) |
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2013 |
Visiting Scholar, IMF, (August-December) |
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2012 |
Visiting Scholar, IMF, (November) |
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2011-12 |
Research Fellow, IICE, Universidad de Costa Rica |
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2008-11 |
Affiliate Professor, University of Munich |
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2003-11 |
Research Professor, Ifo Institute for Economic
Research at
the University of Munich |
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2008 |
Visiting Professor, University of Leipzig, (April) |
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2007 |
Visiting Scholar, IMF, (April) |
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2006 |
Visiting Professor, Institute of Advanced Studies,
Vienna, (September) |
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2004 |
Visiting Professor, IZA Institute, Bonn University,
(September) |
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2004 |
Visiting Professor, Barcelona University, (April) |
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2004 |
Visiting Professor, Technical University, Zurich
(ETH), (January) |
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2003-4 |
Mercator Research Professor, German Research Foundation
(DFG), University of Munich |
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2002 |
Visiting Professor, GREQAM, University of
Aix-Marseille (June) |
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2000, 1 |
Visiting Professor, Eberhard-Karls-Universität, Tübingen (February) |
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2000-07 |
Visiting Professor, Center for Economic Studies
(CES), University of Munich (June/July) |
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1999 |
Visiting Scholar, Nuffield College, Oxford
University (Winter) |
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Education
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1994 |
Ph.D., Economics, Columbia
University, New York, NY |
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1993 |
M.Phil., Economics, Columbia
University, New York, NY |
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1991 |
M.A., Economics, Columbia
University, New York, NY |
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1989 |
Diplom-Studiengang, Economics (VWL), Freie Univ.
Berlin, Germany |
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1988 |
B.A., Chinese Studies,
Economics, Grinnell College, Grinnell, IA |
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1987 |
Language
Certificate,
Chinese, Nanjing University, People’s Republic of China |
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1985 |
Abitur, Gymnasium Dormagen,
Germany |
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1983 |
Phillips Academy, Andover, MA |
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Dissertation
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1994 |
Endogenous
Human Capital and Technological Change in Closed and Open Economies. |
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Committee:
R. Mundell (Chair), R. Findlay, D. Foley, R. Clarida, A. Burgstaller |
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Honors/Awards / Grants
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2013 |
Research
Grant “Trade Diversity and Growth” U.K. Dep't for Int'l Development
(DFID) |
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2009 |
European-Union-Center
of Excellence Research Award “European Productivity Determinants” |
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2006 |
German
Research Foundation Research Grant “Determinants of German Productivity” |
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2006 |
Center
for Statistics and the Social Science Grant “Bayesian Model Averaging,
Priors & Growth” |
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2004 |
German
Research Foundation (DFG) Mercator Research Professorship |
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2003 |
Royalty
Research Fund Grant “Financial Crises” |
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2003 |
Golden
Key International Honor Society “Outstanding Teaching Award” |
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2003 |
Golden
Key International Honor Society Honorary Member |
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2002 |
University
of Washington, Gowan Faculty Grant |
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2002 |
European-Union-Center
Research Award “Institutions and Growth” |
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2001 |
European-Union-Center
Conference Grant “Inequality and Growth” |
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1999 |
Alexander
von Humboldt Foundation Research Fellowship |
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1998 |
University
of Washington, Buechel Undergraduate
Teaching Award |
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1997 |
University
of Washington, Mentoring Award |
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1997 |
Royalty
Research Fund Grant ”Trade and Wages” |
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1994 |
Columbia University Ph.D. awarded with Distinction |
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1991-2 |
Lynde
and Harry Bradley Foundation Fellowship |
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1989-92 |
Columbia
University, President’s Fellow |
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1985-88 |
Grinnell
College, ISO Fellowship |
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Research Interests
Trade, Development and Growth, Macroeconomics
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Publications
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Books
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Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, MIT
Press, Cambridge, 2003, (with Stephen Turnovsky)(drafts) Institutions,
Development and Growth,
MIT Press, Cambridge, 2006, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa) International Economics, Routledge
Press, New York, 2009, (with John Mutti and Michelle Turnovsky). Information Technology and Productivity Growth: German
Trends and OECD Comparisons, Edward
Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2009, (with Thomas Strobel) International Economics (Chinese Edition), Gezhi
Press, Shanghai, 2013 (with John Mutti and Michelle Turnovsky). Journals (refereed) Education, Technological Change and Economic Growth,
Inter-American Review of Educational Development, 119, 3
(1994), pp 461-81, (with Thomas Bailey) Interaction between Endogenous Human Capital and
Technological Change, Review of Economic Studies, 63, 1, (January 1996), pp 127-44. The Human Capital Dimension to Direct Foreign
Investment, in Trade, Dynamics and Growth, B. Jensen and
K.Y. Wong eds, Michigan University Press, 1997, (with Pantelis
Kalaitzidakis). Transitional Dynamics in Non-Scale Growth Models,
in Computing in Economics and Finance, 1997, 105 (with Stephen
Turnovsky) Risk and Financial Development, in Managing
Capital Flows and Exchange Rates Reuven Glick (ed), Cambridge University
Press, 1998, (with Steve Turnovsky). Training, Adverse Selection and Appropriate Technology,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, (April 1999), pp
727-746. International Capital Markets and Non Scale Growth,
Review of International Economics, 7, (May 1999), pp 1-27, (with
Steve Turnovsky) Trade, Development and Converging Growth Rates: Dynamic
Gains from Trade Reconsidered, Journal of International
Economics, 48, (June 1999), pp 179-198. A Generalized Model of Economic Growth, Economic
Journal, 109, (July 1999), pp 394-415, (with Steve Turnovsky). Convergence in a Two Sector Non-Scale Growth Model,
Journal of Economic Growth, 4, (December 1999), pp
413-429, (with Steve Turnovsky). Optimal Policies for Financial Liberalizations,
German Economic Review, 1, (February 2000), pp 19-42, (with Steve Turnovsky and Uwe
Walz) Scale, Congestion and Growth, Economica,
67, (August 2000), pp 325-47, (with Steve Turnovsky). Transitional Dynamics in a Two-Sector Non-Scale Growth
Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25,
(January 2001), pp 85-113, (with Steve Turnovsky). Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversal,
Economic Review, 52, 4, (October 2001), (with Steve Turnovsky and Uwe Walz) Inequality and Growth: The Dual Role of Human Capital in
Development, Journal of Development Economics, 66,
(October 2001), pp 173-97, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa ) Protection for Sale: An Empirical Investigation: A
Comment, American Economic Review, 92, 5 (December
2002), pp 1702-11, (with Thomas Osang) An Evolutionary Approach to Technological Change and
Growth, Computing in Economics and Finance, 197,
(2002), pp (with Klaas vant Veld) The Impact of Tax Policy on Inequality and Growth: An
Empirical and Theoretical Investigation, Inequality and Growth:
Theory and Policy Implications, T.S. Eicher & S.J. Turnovsky eds.,
Cambridge: MIT Press. 2003, (with Stephen Turnovsky and Carme Riera Prunera) On the Mechanics of Technical Change: New and Old Ideas
in Economic Growth, in Old and New Growth Theories. An
Assessment, Neri Salvadori ed., NY, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003 Market Structure and Innovation Revisited: Endogenous
Productivity, Training and Market Shares, in Human Capital,
Trade And Public Policy In Rapidly Growing Economies, M. Boldrin, B.L.
Chen and P. Wang (eds) NY, Edward Elgar, 2004, (with Sang Choon Kim) Political Support or Contributions: An Empirical
Investigation of US Trade Policy, in WTO and World Trade: Challenges in a New Era, G. Heiduk and K.Y. Wong eds.
Berlin, Springer Verlag 2004, (with
Thomas Osang) (Data/Do Files) Financial Liberalization, Openness and Convergence,
Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 13, 4,
(December 2004), pp 443–459, (with Leslie Hull) How Do Institutions Lead Some Countries To Produce So
Much More Output Per Worker Than Others? In Institutions for
Development and Growth, T.S. Eicher and C. García-Peñalosa (eds) MIT
Press 2006, (with Cecilia García-Peñalosa and Utku Teksoz) FDI, Exports or Acquisition: Optimal Entry Modes for
Multinational Corporations, Journal of Development Economics,
77, 1, (June 2005), pp 207-228, Reprinted in Multinational Enterprise
Theory, Volume II, J. A. Krug, J. D. Daniels eds, Sage Press (2008),
(with Jong Woo Kang) Sources of the German Productivity Demise, German
Economic Review, 8, (May 2007), pp 211–236, (with Oliver Roehn) Unraveling the Fortunes of the Fortunate: An Iterative
Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach, Journal of
Macroeconomics, 29, 3 (September 2007), pp 494-514, (with
Chris Papageorgiou and Oliver Roehn) Endogenous Strength of Intellectual Property Rights:
Implications for Economic Development and Growth, European
Economic Review, 52, 2, (February 2008), pp 237-58, (with Cecilia
García-Peñalosa) The Rise and Fall of German Productivity: Software
Investment as the Decisive Driver, Cesifo Economic Studies, 54, 3,
(September 2008), pp 386-414, (with Thomas Strobel) Dynamic Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks: The Impact on
Debt and Growth, Journal of International Money and
Finance, 27, 6, (September 2008), pp 876-896, (with Stefan Schubert and
Steve Turnovsky) In Search of a Sulphur Dioxide Environmental Kuznets
Curve: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach, Environment and
Development Economics, 13, 6 (December 2008), pp 1-28, (with Jeff
Begun) (Data/Do Files) Institutions and Economic Performance: Endogeneity and
Parameter Heterogeneity, Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, 41,
(February 2009), pp 197-219, (with Andreas Leukert) (Data/Do
Files) Corruption, Education and The Distribution of Income,
Journal of Economic Growth, 14 (August 2009), pp 205-31, (with
Cecilia García-Peñalosa and Tanguy van Ypersele) Structural Policies and Growth: Time Series Evidence
from a Natural Experiment, Journal of Development Economics,
91 (2010), pp 169–179, (with Till Schreiber) (Data) Modeling Uncertainty In Macroeconomic Growth
Determinants Using Gaussian Graphical Models, Statistical
Methodology, 7, (May 2010), pp 292-306, (with Adrian Dobra and Alex
Lenkoski) (Data/Do Files) In Search of WTO Trade Effects: Preferential Trade
Agreements Promote Trade Strongly, But Unevenly, Journal of
International Economics, 83, 2, (March 2011), pp 137-154, (with
Christian Henn) (Data/Do Files) Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian
Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants, Journal
of Applied Econometrics, 26, 1, (February 2011), pp 30-55, (with
Chris Papageorgiou and Adrian Raftery) (R
Scripts) One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark For the
Effects of Currency Unions on Trade Flows, Review of
International Economics, 19, (August 2011), pp 419-435, (with
Christian Henn) (Data/Do Files ) Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for
Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects, Journal
of Applied Econometrics, 27, (March 2012), pp 296-321, (with
Christian Henn and Chris Papageorgiou) (Data/Do
Files) Robust FDI Determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the
Presence of Selection Bias, Journal of Macroeconomics, 34 (September 2012), pp 637–651,
(with Lindy Helfman and Alex Lenkoski) (Data/Do
Files) Intellectual Property Rights as Development Determinants,
Canadian Journal of Economics, 46 (February 2013), pp
4-22 (with Monique Newiak) (Data/R Scripts) Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity Under Model
Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants, Econometric
Reviews, 33, (February 2014),
pp 122-51 (with Alex Lenkoski
and Adrian Raftery) (R
Script) Did
Established Early Warning Signals Predict the 2008 Crises? European
Economic Review, 90 (January 2016), pp 103-14 (with Charis
Christofides and Chris Papageorgiou) (Data/R
Scripts) The Elusive Effect of Trade on Growth, Canadian Journal of Economics, 49, (February 2016), pp 264-95 (with David Kuenzel)
(Data/R Scripts) Constitutional Determinants of Social
Infrastructure, Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, (Sept 2018), pp 182-209 (with Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa and David Kuenzel) (Data/R Scripts) European Influence and Economic
Development, Canadian Journal of Economics, (May
2019), pp 667-734 (with David Kuenzel) (Data/R
Scripts) Forecasts in Times of Crises, International Journal of Forecasting, 35, (Jul-Sep
2019), pp 1143-1159 (with David Kuenzel, Chris Papageorgiou and Charis
Christofides) (Data/R Scripts) The Accuracy of IMF Nowcasts, International Journal of Forecasting, 39, (Jan-Mar 2023)pp 431-449 (with Yuan Gao
Rollinson) (Data/R Scripts) IMF Trade Forecasts for Crisis Countries: Bias,
Inefficiency and their Origins International Journal of
Forecasting, 39, (Oct-Dec 2023), pp
1615-1639 (with Reina Kawai) (Data/R
Scripts) Housing Prices and Land-Use
Regulations: A Study of 250 Major US Cities, Journal
of Economic Analysis, 2024 3(1), pp 27-57 Systemic Bias of IMF Reserve and Debt Forecasts for
Program Countries International Journal of
Forecasting, 40, (July-Sept. 2024), pp. 985- 1001 (with Reina Kawai) (Data/R Scripts) Effects of IMF-Supported Programs on Gender Inequality,
European Journal of Political Economy, 90,
(December 2025), pp. 1027-40 (with Reina Eskimez and Monique Newiak) (Data/R
Scripts) Contributions to Books / Journals (not refereed) The North American Free Trade Agreement and the U.S.
Apparel Industry, in U.S.-Mexico Trade: Pulling
Together or Pulling Apart?, US Congress, Office of Technological
Assessment, ITE-545 (Washington, DC, GPO: October 1992), (with Thomas
Bailey). Review of D. Jorgenson, `Productivity', Review of
International Economics, (May 1998) Comments On The Management of Financial
Crisis,” in The World's New Financial Landscape: Challenges for
Economic Policy, H. Siebert ed., Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 2001. An Economic Framework for Teleconsultation,
(with L Clark Johnson), 2004 Washington Port Investment To Capture Future Trade,
Washington Business Magazine (OpED), April 2004 Intellectual Imports, Seattle Times
(OpEd), 2005 Employment Trends in Washington State, Testimony
to the Washington Legislature, 1/2005 Institutional Determinants of Economic Performance in
OECD Countries –An Institutions Climate Index, Journal for
Institutional Comparisons, 5, 1, (Spring 2007): 39-49, (with Oliver
Roehn) Guest Editorial: Special Issue on Productivity Growth, German
Economic Review, 8, (May 2007), pp 123-4 Outsourcing and Productivity Growth:
Sectoral Evidence from Germany, in G. Cette, M. Fouquin and
H.-W. Sinn eds, Divergences in Productivity Between Europe and the
United States, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, (with Thomas Fuchs and
Hans-Guenther Vieweg) Institutions and Growth in OECD Countries, Journal
for Institutional Comparisons, 7, 2, (Summer 2009), pp 24-29, (with
Wolfgang Ochel, Oliver Roehn, and Anja Rohwer) Commercializing Tacit Knowledge, (2009) Sustaining
Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability In Low-Income Countries – The
Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification, IMF Policy Papers, 37,
(March 2014) (with T.S. Choi, N.D. Duma, C. Henn, N.
Gigineishvili, G. Ho, D. Kuenzel, A. Pitt, C. Papageorgiou, S. Rosa, K. Wang) |
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Invited Presentations
Keynote/Plenary Lectures
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Keynote
Speaker, "Macro-Prudential Policies" Conference, Nanjing
School of Finance & Economics (2016) |
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Keynote
Speaker, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade Conference. Geneva
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (2015, invited) |
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Keynote
Speaker, Sustainable Resource Use and Economic Dynamics Conference, University
of Zurich (2006) |
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Keynote
Speaker, Economic Growth and Institutions Conference, University of
Copenhagen (2005) |
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Keynote
Speaker, Structural Change and Labor Markets Conference, IZA
University of Bonn (2005) |
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Plenary
Lecture, Pisa University (October 2001). Old and New Growth Theories
Conference (2001) |
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Lectures Series
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Universidad de Costa Rica, (May/June 2012). Crisis Early Warning
Signals and Economic Growth |
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University
of Munich, (March 2009). Advanced Topics in Economics Growth: Model
Uncertainty |
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University
of Leipzig, (April 2008). Frontiers of Macroeconomics and Growth |
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Vienna
Institute of Advanced Studies, (September 2006). Innovation and Growth |
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University
of Munich, München (May 2006). Adv. Topics in Economics Growth: Model
Selection |
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Universidad
de Barcelona, (April 2004). Institutions and Growth |
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ETH
Technical University of Zurich, (January 2004). Endogenous Institution |
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University
of Munich, (January 2000). Endogenous Growth Theory |
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University
of Tübingen, (February 2000). Non-Scale Growth |
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University
of Tübingen, (May 2001). Empirics of Commercial Policy |
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University
of Munich, (December 2001). Endogenous Tariff Protection |
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Conferences Organized
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European
Workshop in Macroeconomics (Munich, July 2010) (co-organizer with M.
Doepke, G. Illing, M. Piazzesi, and M. Schneider). |
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Determinants
of Productivity Growth (Vienna, September 2006) |
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Education
and the 21st Century Workforce (Seattle, July 2005, co-organizer) |
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Intellectual
Property Rights and Innovation ( Seattle, February 2005, co-organizer) |
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Institutions
and Growth (Venice,
July 2004, co-organizer) |
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Growth
and Inequality (Munich,
May 2001, co-organizer) |
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Old
and New Growth Theories (Pisa, October 2001, scientific committee) |
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Growth
and Inequality Policy Implications (Elmau, January 2002, co-organizer) |
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WTO
and World Trade III
( Duisburg, June 2002, program committee) |
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WTO
and World Trade IV
(Seattle, September 2002, program committee) |
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Society
for Computational Economics Annual Meeting (Seattle, July 2003, program co-chair) |
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Institutions
and Growth (Venice,
CESifo Summer Institute, July 2004, program co-chair) |
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Conference Sessions Organized
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Trade
and Growth Sessions, Society for Computational Economics, (Cambridge, UK, July
1998) |
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Technology,
Infrastructure and Credit in Development, AEA (New York, 1999) |
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Trade
and Growth Sessions, Society for Computational Economics, (Boston, July 1999) |
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Trade
and Convergence
Sessions Society for Computational Economics, (Aix-en-Provence,
June 2002) |
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Referee Activity
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American
Economic Review, Canadian Journal of Economics, Economic Inquiry,
Econometrica, Economica, Economic Journal, European Economic Review, German
Economic Review, International Economic Review, International Review of
Economics/Metroeconomica, Japanese Economic Review, Journal of Development
Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Economic
Integration, Journal of Economics, Journal of Empirical Economics, Journal of
International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal
of International Trade and Economic Development, Journal of Macroeconomics,
Journal of Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of
Political Economy, Louvain Economic Review, National Science Foundation,
Oxford Economic Papers, Review of Economic Studies, Review of International
Economics, Royalty Research Fund, Southern Economic Journal, Verein Für
Sozialpolitik. |
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Teaching Experience
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Undergraduate: International Trade; Macroeconomics (Introduction,
Intermediate, Advanced), International Macroeconomics, International Finance, Topics in Economic Growth, Urban Economics, Sustainable Development and Growth Graduate / PhD: Trade Theory; Commercial Policy; Advanced Growth Theory, Advanced Macro Theory and Empirics. |
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Link to Former Graduate Students I supervised