Publications

In review

  • Dong Y, C Proistosescu, KC Armour and DS Battisti (2018) Attributing historical and future evolution of radiative feedbacks to regional warming patterns using a Green’s function approach: The preeminence of the western Pacific
  • Wills RCJ, DS Battisti, C Proistosescu, L Thompson, DL Hartmann and KC Armour (2018) Ocean circulation signatures of North Pacific decadal variability
  • Armour KC, N Siler, A Donohoe and GH Roe (2018) Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion [preprint]

2018

  • Stuecker M, CM Bitz, KC Armour, C Proistosescu, SM Kang, S-P Xie, D Kim, S McGregor, W Zhang, S Zhao, W Cai, Y Dong and F-F Jin (2018) Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks, Nature Climate Change
  • Po-Chedley S, C Proistosescu, KC Armour and BD Santer (2018) Climate constraint reflects forced signal, Nature, 563, E6–E9, doi: 10.1038/nature25450 [pdf]
  • Wills RCJ, KC Armour, DS Battisti and DL Hartmann (2018) Ocean-atmosphere dynamic coupling fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0269.1
  • Bonan DB, KC Armour, GH Roe, N Siler and N Feldl (2018) Sources of uncertainty in the meridional pattern of climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 9131-9140, doi: 10.1029/2018GL079429
  • Andrews T, JM Gregory, D Paynter, LG Silvers, C Zhou, T Mauritsen, MJ Webb, KC Armour, PM Forster and H Titchner (2018) Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 8490-8499, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078887
  • Oldenburg D, KC Armour, L Thompson and CM Bitz (2018) Distinct mechanisms of ocean heat transport into the Arctic under internal variability and climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 7692-7700, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078719
  • Siler N, GH Roe and KC Armour (2018) Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model, Journal of Climate, 31, 7481-7493 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1
  • Siler N, GH Roe, KC Armour and N Feldl (2018) Revisiting the surface-energy-flux perspective on the sensitivity of global precipitation to climate change, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4359-0
  • Proistosescu C, A Donohoe, KC Armour, GH Roe, MF Stuecker and CM Bitz (2018) Radiative feedbacks from stochastic variability in surface temperature and radiative imbalance, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5082–5094, doi: 10.1029/2018GL077678 [agu research spotlight]
  • Goosse H, JE Kay, KC Armour, A Bodas-Salcedo, H Chepfer, D Docquier, A Jonko, PJ Kushner, O Lecomte, F Massonnet, H-S Park, F Pithan, G Svensson, and M Vancoppenolle (2018) Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions, Nature Communications, 9:1919, doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0
  • Po-Chedley S, KC Armour, CM Bitz, MD Zelinka, BD Santer and Q Fu (2018) Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks, Journal of Climate, 31, 3187–3206, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1
  • Kostov Y, DG Ferreira, KC Armour and J Marshall (2018) Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1086–1097, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074964

2017

  • Stuecker MF, CM Bitz and KC Armour (2017) Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 9008–9019, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074691
  • Haugstad AD, KC Armour, DS Battisti and BEJ Rose (2017) Relative roles of surface temperature and climate forcing patterns in the inconstancy of radiative feedbacks, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 7455–7463, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074372 [pdf]
  • Kostov Y, J Marshall, U Hausmann, KC Armour, DG Ferreira and MM Holland (2017) Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models, Climate Dynamics, 48:1595, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3162-z

2016

  • Armour KC (2016) Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise, Nature Climate Change, 6, 896–897, doi:10.1038/nclimate3079 [pdf]

2015

  • Armour KC and CM Bitz (2015) Observed and projected trends in Antarctic sea ice, US CLIVAR Variations, 13.4, 13–19 [pdf]
  • Roe GH, N Feldl, KC Armour, Y-T Hwang and DMW Frierson (2015) The remote impacts of climate feedbacks on regional climate predictability, Nature Geoscience, 8, 135-139, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2346 [pdf]
  • Marshall J, J Scott, KC Armour, J-M Campin, M Kelley and A Romanou (2015) The ocean’s role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing, Climate Dynamics, 4, 2287–2299, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2308-0  [pdf]

2014

  • Donohoe A, KC Armour, AG Pendergrass and DS Battisti (2014) Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 16700-16705, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412190111 [pdf]
  • Kostov Y, KC Armour and J Marshall (2014) Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ocean heat storage and transient climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058998  [pdf]  [a news piece]
  • Rose BEJ, KC Armour, DS Battisti, N Feldl and DDB Koll (2014) The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptakeGeophysical Research Letters, 41, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058955  [pdf]  [a news piece]
  • Donohoe A, J Marshall, D Ferreira, KC Armour and D McGee (2014) The inter-annual variability of tropical precipitation and inter-hemispheric energy transport, Journal of Climate, 27, 3377–3392, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00499.1 [pdf]

2013

  • Armour KC, CM Bitz and GH Roe (2013) Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks, Journal of Climate, 26, 4518–4534, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00544.1 [pdf]

2012

  • Bitz CM, KM Shell, PR Gent, DA Bailey, G Danabasoglu, KC Armour, MM Holland and JT Kiehl (2012) Climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4, Journal of Climate, 25, 3053–3070, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00290.1 [pdf]
  • Langebroek P, C Bradshaw, A Yanchilina, R Caballero-Gill, C Pew, KC Armour, S-Y Lee and I-M Jansson (2012) Improved proxy record of past warm climates needed, Eos Trans. AGU, 93(14), 144, doi:10.1029/2012EO140007

2011

  • Roe GH and KC Armour (2011) How sensitive is climate sensitivity?Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L14708, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047913 [pdf]
  • Armour KC, CM Bitz, L Thompson and EC Hunke (2011) Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multiyear ice survivability, Journal of Climate, 24, 2378–2390, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3823.1  [pdf]
  • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, KC Armour, CM Bitz and E DeWeaver (2011) Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, Journal of Climate, 24, 231–250, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1 [pdf]