Submitted

• Li Q, W Cheng, KC Armour, L Thompson, and OA Garuba: Revisiting the role of ocean circulation changes in polar ocean heat transport anomalies under global warming.

• O’Connor GK, Y Nakayama, EJ Steig, KC Armour, L Thompson, S Hyogo, M Berdahl, and T Shimada: West Antarctic glacier retreat triggered by polynya response to meridional winds.

• Dvorak M, KC Armour, R Feng, VT Cooper, J Zhu, C Proistosescu, and N Burls: Mid-Pliocene climate forcing, sea-surface temperature patterns, and implications for modern-day climate sensitivity.

• Bonan DB, A Thompson, T Schneider, L Zanna, KC Armour, and S Sun: Constraints imply limited future weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. [preprint]

2024

• Lin Y-J, GV Cesana, C Proistosescu, MD Zelinka, and KC Armour (2024) The relative importance of forced and unforced temperature patterns in driving the time variation of low-cloud feedback. Journal of Climate, in press

• Cox T, A Donohoe, KC Armour, GH Roe, and DMW Frierson (2024) A new method for calculating instantaneous atmospheric heat transport. Journal of Climate, 37, 4337–4346, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0521.1

• Eisenman I and KC Armour (2024) The radiative feedback continuum from Snowball Earth to an ice-free hothouse. Nature Communications, 15:6582, doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50406-w

• Poletti A, DMW Frierson, and KC Armour (2024) Why do CO2 quadrupling simulations warm more than twice as much as CO2 doubling simulations in CMIP6? Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL107320, doi: 10.1029/2023GL107320

• Cooper VT, KC Armour, GJ Hakim, JE Tierney, MB Osman, C Proistosescu, Y Dong, NJ Burls, T Andrews, DE Amrhein, J Zhu, W Dong, Y Ming, and P Chmielowiec (2024) Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates. Science Advances, 10, eadk9461, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adk9461

• Donohoe A, R Fajber, T Cox, KC Armour, DS Battisti, and GH Roe (2024) Model biases in the atmosphere–ocean partitioning of poleward heat transport are persistent across three CMIP generations. Geophysical Research Letters, 51,e2023GL106639, doi: 10.1029/2023GL106639

• Armour KC, C Proistosescu, Y Dong, LC Hahn, E Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, AG Pauling, RC Jnglin Wills, T Andrews, MF Stuecker, S Po-Chedley, I Mitevski, PM Forster, and JM Gregory (2024) Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed recent global warming and biased emergent constraints on climate sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121, e2312093121, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2312093121

• Bonan DB, N Feldl, N Siler, JE Kay, KC Armour, I Eisenman, and GH Roe (2024) The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL106648, doi: 10.1029/2023GL106648

• Cox T, A Donohoe, KC Armour, DMW Frierson, and GH Roe (2024) Trends in atmospheric heat transport since 1980. Journal of Climate, 37, 1539–1550, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0385.1

• Ge Q, Z Zheng, L Kang, A Donohoe, KC Armour, and GH Roe (2024) The sensitivity of climate and climate change to the efficiency of atmospheric heat transport. Climate Dynamics, 62, 2057–2067, doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-07010-3

2023

• Hahn LC, KC Armour, DS Battisti, A Donohoe, and R Fajber (2023) Seasonal changes in atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic under increased CO2. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105156, doi: 10.1029/2023GL105156 [preprint]

• Cox T, A Donohoe, KC Armour, DMW Frierson, and GH Roe (2023) Comment on “Moist static energy transport trends in four global reanalyses: Are they downgradient?” by
  Clark et al. (2022), Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102804, doi: 10.1029/2023GL102804

• Fajber R, A Donohoe, S Ragen, KC Armour, and PJ Kushner (2023) Atmospheric heat transport is governed by meridional gradients in surface evaporation in modern-day earth-like climates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, e2217202120, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2217202120

• Pauling AG, CM Bitz, and KC Armour (2023) The climate response to the Mt Pinatubo eruption does not constrain climate sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102946, doi: 10.1029/2023GL102946

• Bonan DB, N Siler, GH Roe, and KC Armour (2023) Energetic constraints on the pattern of changes to the hydrological cycle under global warming. Journal of Climate, 36, 3499–3522, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0337.1

• Zhou C, M Wang, M Zelinka, Y Liu, Y Dong, and KC Armour (2023) Explaining forcing efficacy with pattern effect and state dependence. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL101700, doi: 10.1029/2022GL101700

2022

• Dong Y, AG Pauling, S Sadai, and KC Armour (2022) Antarctic ice-sheet meltwater reduces transient warming and climate sensitivity through the sea-surface temperature pattern effect, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL101249, doi: 10.1029/2022GL101249

• Roach LA, E Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, S Ragen, W Cheng, KC Armour, and CM Bitz (2022) The impact of winds on AMOC in a fully-coupled climate model, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL101203, doi: 10.1029/22022GL101203

• Wills RCJ, Y Dong, C Proistosescu, KC Armour, and DS Battisti (2022) Systematic climate model biases in the large-scale patterns of recent sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure change, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100011, doi: 10.1029/2022GL100011

• Andrews T, A Bodas-Salcedo, JM Gregory, Y Dong, KC Armour, D Paynter, P Lin, A Modak, T Mauritsen, JNS Cole, B Medeiros, JJ Benedict, H Douville, R Roehrig, T Koshiro, H Kawai, T Ogura, J-L Dufresne, RP Allan, and C Liu (2022) On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD036675, doi: 10.1029/2022JD036675

• Dong Y, KC Armour, DS Battisti and E Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (2022) Two-way teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and the tropical Pacific via a dynamic feedback, Journal of Climate, 35, 2667–2682, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0080.1

• Dvorak MT, KC Armour, DMW Frierson, C Proistosescu, MB Baker and CJ Smith (2022) Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming, Nature Climate Change, 12, 547–552, doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y

• Oldenburg D, RCJ Wills, KC Armour and L Thompson (2022) Resolution dependence of atmosphere-ocean interactions and water-mass transformation in the North Atlantic, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127, e2021JC018102, doi: 10.1029/2021JC018102

• Cox T, A Donohoe, GH Roe, KC Armour and DMW Frierson (2022) Near invariance of poleward atmospheric heat transport in response to mid-latitude orography, Journal of Climate, 35, 4099–4113, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0888.1

• Ragen S, KC Armour, L Thompson, A Shao and D Darr (2022) The role of ocean basin geometry in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 52, 475–492, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-21-0036.1

• Hahn L, KC Armour, DS Battisti, I Eisenman and CM Bitz (2022) Seasonality in Arctic warming driven by sea ice effective heat capacity, Journal of Climate, 35, 1629-1642, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0626.1

2021

• Dong Y, KC Armour, C Proistosescu, T Andrews, DS Battisti, PM Forster, D Paynter, CJ Smith and H Shiogama (2021) Biased estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response derived from historical CMIP6 simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095778, doi: 10.1029/2021GL095778

• Hahn L, KC Armour, M Zelinka, CM Bitz and A Donohoe (2021) Contributions to polar amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9:710036, doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.710036

• Rugenstein M and KC Armour (2021) Three flavors of radiative feedbacks and their implications for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL092983, doi: 10.1029/2021GL092983

• Wills RCJ, KC Armour, DS Battisti, C Proistosescu and L Parsons (2021) Slow modes of global temperature variability in regions of weak radiative feedbacks and their impact on climate sensitivity estimates, Journal of Climate, 34, 8717-8738, doi: JCLI-D-20-1013.1

• Oldenburg D, RCJ Wills, KC Armour, L Thompson and L Jackson (2021) Mechanisms of low-frequency variability in North Atlantic Ocean heat transport and AMOC, Journal of Climate, 34, 4733-4755, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0614.1

• Cox T, KC Armour, GH Roe, A Donohoe and DMW Frierson (2021) Radiative and dynamic controls on atmospheric heat transport over different planetary rotation rates, Journal of Climate, 34, 3543-3554, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0533.1

2020

• Hahn LC, KC Armour, DS Battisti, A Donohoe, AG Pauling and CM Bitz (2020) Antarctic elevation drives hemispheric asymmetry in polar lapse-rate climatology and feedback, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088965, doi: 10.1029/2020GL088965

• Wills RCJ, DS Battisti, KC Armour, T Schneider and C Deser (2020) Pattern recognition methods to separate forced responses from internal variability in climate model ensembles and observations, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0855.1

• Sherwood S, MJ Webb, JD Annan, KC Armour, PM Forster, JC Hargreaves, G Hegerl, SA Klein, KD Marvel, EJ Rohling, M Watanabe, T Andrews, P Braconnot, CS Bretherton, GL Foster, Z Hausfather, AS von der Heydt, R Knutti, T Mauritsen, JR Norris, C Proistosescu, M Rugenstein, GA Schmidt, KB Tokarska and MD Zelinka (2020) An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence, Reviews of Geophysics, doi: 10.1029/2019RG000678

• Zarakas CM, AL Swann, MM Laguë, KC Armour and JT Randerson (2020) Plant physiology increases the magnitude and spread of the transient climate response in CMIP6 Earth System Models, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0078.1

• Dong Y, KC Armour, M Zelinka, C Proistosescu, D Battisti, C Zhou and T Andrews (2020) Inter-model spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1011.1

• Donohoe A, KC Armour, GH Roe, DS Battisti and L Hahn (2020) The partitioning of meridional heat transport from the Last Glacial Maximum to CO₂ quadrupling in coupled climate models, Journal of Climate, 33, 4141–4163, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0797.1 [pdf]

• Loeb NG, H Wang, R Allan, T Andrews, KC Armour, JNS Cole, J-L Dufresne, P Forster, A Gettelman, H Guo, T Mauritsen, Y Ming, D Paynter, C Proistosescu, MF Stuecker, U Willén and K Wyser (2020) New generation of climate models track recent unprecedented changes in Earth’s radiation budget observed by CERES, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086705, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086705 [pdf]

• Stuecker MF, A Timmermann, F-F Jin, C Proistosescu, SM Kang, D Kim, K-S Yun, E-S Chung, J-E Chu, CM Bitz, KC Armour and M Hayashi (2020) Strong remote control of future equatorial warming by off-equatorial forcing, Nature Climate Change, 10, 124–129, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0667-6

2019

• Dong Y, C Proistosescu, KC Armour and DS Battisti (2019) Attributing historical and future evolution of radiative feedbacks to regional warming patterns using a Green’s function approach: The preeminence of the western Pacific, Journal of Climate, 32, 5471–5491, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0843.1 [pdf]

• Armour KC, N Siler, A Donohoe and GH Roe (2019) Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion, Journal of Climate, 32, 3655–3679, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0563.1 [pdf]

• Wills RCJ, DS Battisti, C Proistosescu, L Thompson, DL Hartmann and KC Armour (2019) Ocean circulation signatures of North Pacific decadal variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 1690–1701, doi: 10.1029/2018GL080716

• Wills RCJ, KC Armour, DS Battisti and DL Hartmann (2019) Ocean-atmosphere dynamic coupling fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Journal of Climate, 32, 251–272, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0269.1 [pdf]

• Siler N, GH Roe, KC Armour and N Feldl (2019) Revisiting the surface-energy-flux perspective on the sensitivity of global precipitation to climate change, Climate Dynamics, 52, 3983–3995, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4359-0 [pdf]

2018

• Stuecker M, CM Bitz, KC Armour, C Proistosescu, SM Kang, S-P Xie, D Kim, S McGregor, W Zhang, S Zhao, W Cai, Y Dong and F-F Jin (2018) Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks, Nature Climate Change, 8, 1076–1081, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0339-y [pdf]

• Po-Chedley S, C Proistosescu, KC Armour and BD Santer (2018) Climate constraint reflects forced signal, Nature, 563, E6–E9, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0640-y [pdf]

• Bonan DB, KC Armour, GH Roe, N Siler and N Feldl (2018) Sources of uncertainty in the meridional pattern of climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 9131-9140, doi: 10.1029/2018GL079429 [pdf]

• Andrews T, JM Gregory, D Paynter, LG Silvers, C Zhou, T Mauritsen, MJ Webb, KC Armour, PM Forster and H Titchner (2018) Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 8490-8499, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078887 [pdf]

• Oldenburg D, KC Armour, L Thompson and CM Bitz (2018) Distinct mechanisms of ocean heat transport into the Arctic under internal variability and climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 7692-7700, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078719 [pdf]

• Siler N, GH Roe and KC Armour (2018) Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model, Journal of Climate, 31, 7481-7493 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1 [pdf]

• Proistosescu C, A Donohoe, KC Armour, GH Roe, MF Stuecker and CM Bitz (2018) Radiative feedbacks from stochastic variability in surface temperature and radiative imbalance, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5082–5094, doi: 10.1029/2018GL077678 [pdf] [agu research spotlight]

• Goosse H, JE Kay, KC Armour, A Bodas-Salcedo, H Chepfer, D Docquier, A Jonko, PJ Kushner, O Lecomte, F Massonnet, H-S Park, F Pithan, G Svensson, and M Vancoppenolle (2018) Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions, Nature Communications, 9:1919, doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0 [pdf]

• Po-Chedley S, KC Armour, CM Bitz, MD Zelinka, BD Santer and Q Fu (2018) Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks, Journal of Climate, 31, 3187–3206, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 [pdf]

• Kostov Y, DG Ferreira, KC Armour and J Marshall (2018) Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1086–1097, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074964 [pdf]

2017

• Stuecker MF, CM Bitz and KC Armour (2017) Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 9008–9019, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074691 [pdf]

• Haugstad AD, KC Armour, DS Battisti and BEJ Rose (2017) Relative roles of surface temperature and climate forcing patterns in the inconstancy of radiative feedbacks, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 7455–7463, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074372 [pdf]

• Armour KC (2017) Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nature Climate Change, 7, 331-335, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3278 [pdf] [errata] [us clivar research highlight] [news pieces here, here, here and here]

• Kostov Y, J Marshall, U Hausmann, KC Armour, DG Ferreira and MM Holland (2017) Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models, Climate Dynamics, 48:1595, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3162-z [pdf]

2016

• Armour KC, J Marshall, J Scott, A Donohoe and ER Newsom (2016) Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport, Nature Geoscience, 9, 549–554 doi: 10.1038/ngeo2731 [pdf] [supplementary information] [nature climate change research highlight] [clivar science highlight] [news pieces here, here, here and here]

• Armour KC (2016) Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise, Nature Climate Change, 6, 896–897, doi:10.1038/nclimate3079 [pdf]

2015

• Armour KC and CM Bitz (2015) Observed and projected trends in Antarctic sea ice, US CLIVAR Variations, 13, 4, 13–19 [pdf]

• Roe GH, N Feldl, KC Armour, Y-T Hwang and DMW Frierson (2015) The remote impacts of climate feedbacks on regional climate predictability, Nature Geoscience, 8, 135-139, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2346 [pdf]

• Marshall J, J Scott, KC Armour, J-M Campin, M Kelley and A Romanou (2015) The ocean’s role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing, Climate Dynamics, 4, 2287–2299, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2308-0  [pdf]

2014

• Donohoe A, KC Armour, AG Pendergrass and DS Battisti (2014) Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO₂, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 16700-16705, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412190111 [pdf]

• Marshall J, KC Armour, J Scott, Y Kostov, U Hausmann, D Ferreira, T Shepherd and CM Bitz (2014) The ocean’s role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 372, 20130040, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0040  [pdf]  [nature climate change research highlight]  [a news piece]

• Kostov Y, KC Armour and J Marshall (2014) Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ocean heat storage and transient climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058998  [pdf]  [a news piece]

• McCusker KE, KC Armour, CM Bitz and DS Battisti (2014) Rapid and extensive warming following cessation of solar radiation management, Environmental Research Letters, 9, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024005  [pdf]  [erl monthly highlight]  [a news piece]

• Rose BEJ, KC Armour, DS Battisti, N Feldl and DDB Koll (2014) The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058955  [pdf]  [a news piece]

• Donohoe A, J Marshall, D Ferreira, KC Armour and D McGee (2014) The inter-annual variability of tropical precipitation and inter-hemispheric energy transport, Journal of Climate, 27, 3377–3392, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00499.1 [pdf]

2013

• Armour KC, CM Bitz and GH Roe (2013) Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks, Journal of Climate, 26, 4518–4534, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00544.1 [pdf]

2012

• Bitz CM, KM Shell, PR Gent, DA Bailey, G Danabasoglu, KC Armour, MM Holland and JT Kiehl (2012) Climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4, Journal of Climate, 25, 3053–3070, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00290.1 [pdf]

• Langebroek P, C Bradshaw, A Yanchilina, R Caballero-Gill, C Pew, KC Armour, S-Y Lee and I-M Jansson (2012) Improved proxy record of past warm climates needed, Eos Trans. AGU, 93(14), 144, doi:10.1029/2012EO140007

2011

• Armour KC, I Eisenman, E Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, KE McCusker and CM Bitz (2011) The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L16705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048739 [pdf]  [grl editors’ highlight]  [a news piece]

• Armour KC and GH Roe (2011) Climate commitment in an uncertain world, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L01707, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045850 [pdf]  [grl editors’ highlight]  [nature climate change research highlight]  [news pieces here and here]

• Roe GH and KC Armour (2011) How sensitive is climate sensitivity?, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L14708, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047913 [pdf]

• Armour KC, CM Bitz, L Thompson and EC Hunke (2011) Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multiyear ice survivability, Journal of Climate, 24, 2378–2390, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3823.1  [pdf]

• Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, KC Armour, CM Bitz and E DeWeaver (2011) Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, Journal of Climate, 24, 231–250, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1 [pdf]