Research Scientist, NOAA Fisheries
Affiliate faculty, SAFS, University of Washington
National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA)
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
2745 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA 98112
Open Access CoursesApplied Time Series Analysis in Fisheries and Environmental Sciences
Fish catch forecasting and R Workflow with RStudio
Fish Forecast online book from the material.
My research is focused on stochastic processes and statistical models for complex multivariate, interacting systems. Much of what I do involves developing algorithms for fitting multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to time-series data, which comes up in vector autoregressive state-space modeling, dynamic linear modeling, MAR(1) modeling, and dynamic factor analysis. I developed an EM algorithm for fitting a general constrained version of these models and develped the MARSS package for fitting such models. In my spare time, I've been working on predictive models of "multi-player" systems---I've been studying this with soccer match data. This is another application of my work on developing predictive models using 'bad' data.
My long blurb on my ecological research
I am part of a NWFSC research group working in the area of hierarchical modeling and inference. Group members include Eli Holmes, Eric Ward, Mark Scheuerell, and Brice Semmens, along with their post-docs and students. We develop statistical methods for ecological problems and apply these to resource and endangered species management questions. We collaborate a lot with folks at UW/SAFS and NCEAS.