Robust Scaling

EIR - PR

Background

The data set:

  • not me but also useful [5]

Variability

Among the local factors affecting the relationship between the average annual EIR and the average annual PR are:

  • Drug Taking

  • Seasonality – the relationship between the average annual EIR and the average annual PR is lower, but the orbits all like to the left of the average curve.

  • Spatial Heterogeneity – mosquito populations are highly spatially heterogeneous; this gets averaged out by human mobility patterns

  • Heterogeneous Biting – some people get more bites on average than others; we handle this with biting weights

  • Environmental Heterogeneity – exposure rates are highly variabile even with a population stratum; variance around the mean gives negative binomial exposure rates

  • Travel Malaria

Measurement Errors

  • Differences in the PfPR by study design: age, sex, location and time of year

  • Differences in the PfPR diagnostic method

  • Differences in the mosquito sampling strategy

References

1.
Beier JC, Killeen GF, Githure JI. Short report: Entomologic inoculation rates and Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in Africa. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 1999;61: 109–113. doi:10.4269/ajtmh.1999.61.109
2.
Hay SI, Guerra CA, Tatem AJ, Atkinson PM, Snow RW. Urbanization, malaria transmission and disease burden in Africa. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2005;3: 81–90. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1069
3.
Gething PW, Patil AP, Smith DL, Guerra CA, Elyazar IRF, Johnston GL, et al. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010. Malar J. 2011;10: 378. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-10-378
4.
Penny MA, Maire N, Bever CA, Pemberton-Ross P, Briët OJT, Smith DL, et al. Distribution of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment. Malar J. 2015;14: 384. doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0864-3
5.
Kelly-Hope LA, McKenzie FE. The multiplicity of malaria transmission: A review of entomological inoculation rate measurements and methods across sub-Saharan Africa. Malar J. 2009;8: 19. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-19