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Refereed Articles

Governor Partisanship Explains the Adoption of Statewide Mask Mandates in Response to COVID-19  

Forthcoming in State Politics & Policy Quarterly. Also available on MedRxiv

Christopher Adolph, Kenya Amano, Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, Beatrice Magistro, Grace Reinke, and John Wilkerson

Public mask use has emerged as a key tool in response to COVID-19. We develop and document a classification of statewide mask mandates that reveals variation in their scope and timing. Some U.S. states quickly mandated the wearing of face coverings in most public spaces, whereas others issued narrow mandates or no mandate at all. We consider how differences in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators and partisan politics affect when states adopted broad mask mandates, starting with the earliest broad public mask mandates in April 2020 and continuing though the end of 2020. The most important predictor is whether a state is led by a Republican governor. These states adopt statewide indoor mask mandates an estimated 98.0 days slower (95% CI: 88.8 to 107.3), if they did so at all (hazard ratio of 7.54, 95% CI: 2.87 to 16.19). COVID-19 indicators such as confirmed cases or deaths per million are much less important predictors of statewide mask mandates. This finding highlights a key challenge to public efforts to increase mask-wearing, one of the most effective tools for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 while restoring economic activity.

Does the Economic Decline of the West and the Rise of China Encourage NGO Crackdown?  

Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2021.

Christopher Adolph and Aseem Prakash

Laws restricting foreign funding to domestically operating nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have proliferated in developing countries. This is puzzling because Western powers support the norm that NGOs are critical for democracy and development, recommend governments partner with NGOs, and sometimes use trade sanctions to encourage adherence to this norm. We examine whether rising trade with China influences the onset of NGO restrictions. China, which has emerged as an important export destination, articulates a different norm of state sovereignty over NGOs and does not sanction developing countries that enact restrictive NGO laws. Analysis of 153 developing countries from 2000–2015 finds that increasing exports to China may double the risk of NGO crackdown, but only when accompanied by declining exports to Western democracies. NGO scholars should recognize there are multiple norms about state-NGO relationship and that norm acceptance is influenced by the economic clout of the power that espouses a particular norm.

Modeling COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States  

Nature Medicine, 2021, Vol. 27, 94–105.

IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team [including Christopher Adolph]

We use a deterministic, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in the United States at the state level through 28 February 2021. Using this SEIR model, and projections of critical driving covariates (pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates, and mask use per capita), we assessed scenarios of social distancing mandates (SDMs) and levels of mask use. Projections of current NPI strategies by state suggest that as many as 511,373 (469,578–578,347) lives could be lost to COVID-19 by 28 February 2021. Encouragingly, achieving universal mask use could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states. Universal mask use could save an additional 134,925 (91,787–178,066) lives through the end of February, or an additional 101,033 (66,265–145,432) lives assuming a lesser adoption of mask-wearing, when compared to the reference scenario.

Replication:  See IHME’s website covid19.healthdata.org for current forecasts, code, and data.

Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19  

Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, online.

Christopher Adolph, Kenya Amano, Bree Bang-Jensen, Nancy Fullman, and John Wilkerson

Social distancing is an essential but economically painful measure to flatten the curve of emergent infectious diseases. As the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread throughout the United States in early 2020, the federal government left to the states the difficult and consequential decisions about when to cancel events, close schools and businesses, and issue stay-at-home orders. We present an original, detailed dataset of state-level social distancing policy responses to the epidemic, then apply event history analysis to study the timing of implementation of five social distancing policies across all fifty states. The most important predictor of when states adopted social distancing policies is political: all else equal, states led by Republican governors were slower to implement such policies during a critical window of early COVID-19 response. Continuing actions driven by partisanship, rather than public health expertise and scientific recommendations, may exact greater tolls on health and broader society.

Replication:  See covid19statepolicy.org for underlying data on state social distancing measures.

The Influence of Changing Marginals on Measures of Inequality in Scholarly Citations: Evidence of Bias and a Resampling Correction  

Sociological Science, 2020, Vol. 7, 314–341.

Lanu Kim, Christopher Adolph, Jevin West, and Katherine Stovel

Scholars have debated whether changes in digital environments have led to greater concentration or dispersal of scientific citations, but this debate has paid little attention to how other changes in the publication environment may impact the commonly used measures of inequality. We demonstrate using Monte Carlo experiments that a variety of inequality measures – including the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, and the percentage of papers ever cited – are substantially biased downwards by increases in the total number of papers and citations. We propose and validate a resampling-based correction for this ‘marginals bias,’ and apply this correction to empirical data on scholarly citation distributions using Web of Science data covering four broad scientific fields (Health; Humanities; Mathematics and Computer Sciences; and Social Sciences) during 1996–2014. We find that in each field the bulk of the apparent decline in citation inequality in recent years is an artifact of marginals bias, as are most apparent inter-field differences in citation inequality. Researchers using inequality measures to compare citation distributions and other distributions with many cases at or near the zero-bound should interpret these metrics carefully and account for the influence of changing marginals.

Replication:  See ineqReSample, an R package to implement the resampling correction to various inequality measures.

Policy Design and Public Support for Carbon Tax:
Evidence from a 2018 U.S. National Online Survey Experiment

Public Administration, 2020, Vol. 98(4), December, 905–921.

Nives Dolšak, Christopher Adolph, and Aseem Prakash

Public support for policy instruments is influenced by perceptions of how benefits and costs are distributed across various groups. We examine different carbon tax designs outlining different ways to distribute tax revenues. Using a national online sample of 1,606 U.S. respondents, we examine support for a $20/ton carbon tax that is: (1) Revenue Neutral: revenue is returned to citizens via tax cuts; (2) Compensation-focused: revenue is directed to helping actors disproportionately hurt by the tax; (3) Mitigation-focused: revenue funds projects reducing carbon emissions; and (4) Adaptation-focused: revenue is directed to enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events. We find devoting revenue to mitigation raises overall support for carbon tax by +6.3% versus the control (54.9%) where no information on spending is provided. Other frames raise support in specific subgroups only. Revenue neutrality raises support among lower-income households (+6.6%) and political independents (+9.4%), while compensation increases support among lower-income repondents (+6.1%).

Replication:  Data and code to reproduce the main results can be found here.

The Global Diffusion of Environmental Clubs:
How Pressure from Importing Countries Supports The Chemical Industry’s Responsible Care Program

World Development, 2020, Vol. 127, March, 104735.

Ellen Holtmaat, Christopher Adolph, and Aseem Prakash

Environmental clubs have proliferated across sectors and issue areas. We examine the diffusion of the chemical industry’s Responsible Care (henceforth, RC) program. Much of the work on the diffusion of clubs has focused on the demand side: why firms join these clubs despite the costs of doing so. There is some work focusing on the supply side: why actors establish or create a new club. However, there is virtually no work examining why national-level industry associations decide to subscribe to an existing global environmental club in order to make it available to their members. Industry organizations in 67 countries, of which 25% lower and middle-income countries have joined RC. In this paper, we ask, what motivates this subset of national associations to join RC? Drawing on an original dataset of RC global diffusion in 195 countries (1985–2017), we estimate a Cox proportional hazards model of the risk of joining RC. We find that RC adoption is more likely when a country exports chemicals to other countries that have joined RC (the California effect) and is unaffected by the total volume of its chemical trade. Thus, while exposure to global markets per se may not influence the RC adoption, incentives change considerably when countries’ key importers signal their support for these environmental practices. In addition, peer-pressure and learning matter: RC adoption is more likely when countries in close physical vicinity (within 500 miles) have joined the club. Finally, domestic factors play a role as well: both the level of democracy and the size of the economy encourage national associations to join RC.

Replication:  Data and code to reproduce the main results can be found here.

The Political Economy of Budget Trade-Offs  

Journal of Public Policy, 2020, Vol. 40(1), March, 25–50.

Christopher Adolph, Christian Breunig, and Chris Koski

Because the American states operate under balanced budget requirements, increases in spending in one area typically entail equal and opposite budget cuts in other programs. The literature analyzing the correlates of government spending by policy area has mostly ignored these tradeoffs inherent to policy-making, failing to address one of the most politically interesting and important dimensions of fiscal policy. Borrowing from the statistical literature on compositional data, we present more appropriate and efficient methods that explicitly incorporate the budget constraint into models of spending by budget category. We apply these methods to eight categories of spending from the American states over the years 1984–2009 to reveal winners and losers in the scramble for government spending. Our findings show that partisan governments finance their distinct priorities by raiding spending items that the opposition prefers, while different political institutions, economic conditions, and state demographics impose different tradeoffs across the budget.

Replication:  Data and code to reproduce all results can be found at the Harvard Dataverse.

The Missing Politics of Central Banks  

PS: Political Science and Politics. 2018, Vol. 51(4). October. 737–742.

Christopher Adolph

Two persistent blind spots have led political economists to treat the study of central banks as separate from broader political science questions: first, political scientists have tended to conceive of central bankers as neutral technocrats instead of political actors with varied motivations and beliefs; and second, they have assumed that an optimal monetary policy exists independent of distributional considerations. In reality, central banks are implicated in the politics of inequality in ways that are often underappreciated. First, quantitative easing policies salvaged and magnified the economic and political power of banks. Second, central banks’ asymmetric concern for inflation weakens the bargaining power of labor and ratchets up the gap between rich and poor with every passing economic cycle. Third, powerful, independent central banks rescued elected governments facing economic crises from the hard fiscal choices – and redistributive decisions – that those crises would otherwise have forced upon them. By pretending that monetary policy has no distributional effects, central banks undermine their own legitimacy and claim to political neutrality. As public trust in their neutrality declines, central banks such as the Federal Reserve will be forced to reconsider the distributional effects of monetary policy or risk losing political support for their independence.

Health Facility Readiness and Facility-Based Birth in Haiti: A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Linking Household and Facility Data  

Journal of Global Health: Reports, 2018, 2: e2018023, 1–11.

Christopher G. Kemp, Reed Sorensen, Nancy Puttkammer, Grand’Pierre, Jean Guy Honoré, Lauren Lipira, and Christopher Adolph

Haiti has one of the world’s highest maternal mortality ratios. Comprehensive obstetric services could prevent many of these deaths, though most births in Haiti occur outside health facilities. Demand-side factors like a mother’s socioeconomic status are understood to affect her access or choice to deliver in a health facility. However, analyses of the role of supply-side factors like health facility readiness have been constrained by limited data and methodological challenges. We sought to address these challenges and determine whether Haiti could increase rates of facility-based birth by improving facility readiness to provide delivery services. Our task was to characterize facility delivery readiness and link it to nearby births. We used birth data from the 2012 Haiti DHS and facility data from the 2013 Haiti SPA. Our outcome of interest was facility-based birth. Our predictor of interest was delivery readiness at the DHS sampling cluster level. We derived a novel likelihood function that used Kernel Density Estimation to estimate cluster-level readiness alongside the coefficients of a logistic regression. We analyzed data from 389 facilities and 1,991 births. Rural facilities were less ready than urban facilities to provide delivery services. Women delivering in health facilities were younger, more educated, wealthier, less likely to live in rural areas, and had fewer previous children. Our model estimated that rural facilities (σ = 12.28, standard error [SE] = 0.16) spread their readiness over larger areas than urban facilities (σ = 7.14, SE = 0.016). Cluster-level readiness was strongly associated with facility-based birth (adjusted log-odds = 0.031; p = 0.005), as was socioeconomic status (adjusted log-odds = 0.78; p < 0.001). Health system policymakers in Haiti could increase rates of facility-based birth by supporting targeted interventions to improve facility readiness to provide delivery-related services, alongside efforts to reduce poverty and increase educational attainment among women.

The Shanghai Effect:
Do Exports to China Affect Labor Practices in Africa?

World Development, 2017, Vol. 89(1). January. 1–18.

Christopher Adolph, Vanessa Quince, and Aseem Prakash

In the media: “Do African exports to China hurt labor rights? Here’s what we found.” Washington Post Monkey Cage, 3 March 2017

To investigate whether Africa’s exports to China influence labor practices in Africa, we reconsider the debate over trade’s influence on regulatory standards in exporting countries. The first generation of trade–regulation scholars asked whether high levels of exports influenced regulatory standards of exporting countries, with inconclusive results. The second generation of scholarship focused not on how much a country exported but to whom it exported, identifying a “California Effect” by which firms and consumers in (mostly developed) importing countries projected their high regulatory standards on less developed export partners. Structural change – especially the rise of China as a major importer – poses a challenge to these optimistic findings. Drawing on insights from the analysis of compositional data, this paper introduces a third generation of trade–regulation research, which suggests examining not only with whom a country trades, but also how the composition of markets in a country's export basket reshuffles over time. Specifically, we explore the possibility of a “Shanghai Effect” whereby African countries begin to reflect the lower labor standards of China, which has emerged as a major destination for their exports. We show that when a country increases exports to China, the net effect on domestic labor standards depends critically on the labor practices of other export destinations compositionally displaced by China exports. Our analysis of a panel of 49 African countries for the period 1985–2010 produces a small continent-wide estimate of China’s negative influence on African labor practices. In-sample simulation at the country level uncovers a moderate Shanghai Effect for a handful of countries only.

State Government Organization of Health Services,
1990–2009: Correlates and Consequences

Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 2014, Vol. 20(2). March/April. 160–167.

Paula M. Lantz, Jeffrey A. Alexander, Christopher Adolph, and JoLynn P. Montgomery

Government organizational structure related to health varies greatly across states and is somewhat dynamic. When Medicaid and public health functions are consolidated in the same stage agency, public health does not “lose” in terms of its share of the state budget. However, this could change as Medicaid costs continue to grow and with the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010.

Aligning Rights and Interests:
Why, When and How to Uphold Labor Standards

Background Paper to World Development Report 2013: Jobs

Margaret Levi, Christopher Adolph, Daniel Berliner, Aaron Erlich, Anne Greenleaf, Milli Lake, and Jennifer Noveck

To establish what we do and do not know about how the protection of labor rights contributes to the developmental value of jobs (through living standards, productivity and social cohesion), we review the available literature and evidence. We provide available quantitative and qualitative evidence on how improvements in rights contribute positively to economic development; on the whole, our conclusion is that they do.

Allocation of Authority in European Health Policy  

Social Science and Medicine, 2012, Vol. 75(9): 1595—1603.

Christopher Adolph, Scott L. Greer, and Elize Massard da Fonseca

Although many study the effects of different allocations of health policy authority, few ask why countries assign responsibility over different policies as they do. We test two broad theories: fiscal federalism, which predicts rational governments will concentrate information-intensive operations at lower levels, and redistributive and regulatory functions at higher levels; and “politicized federalism,” which suggests a combination of systematic and historically idiosyncratic political variables interfere with efficient allocation of authority. Drawing on the WHO Health in Transition country profiles, we present new data on the allocation of responsibility for key health care policy tasks (implementation, provision, finance, regulation, and framework legislation) and policy areas (primary, secondary and tertiary care, public health and pharmaceuticals) in the 27 eu member states and Switzerland. We use a Bayesian multinomial mixed logit model to analyze how different countries arrive at different allocations of authority over each task and area of health policy, and find the allocation of powers broadly follows fiscal federalism. Responsibility for pharmaceuticals, framework legislation, and most finance lodges at the highest levels of government, acute and primary care in the regions, and provision at the local and regional levels. Where allocation does not follow fiscal federalism, it appears to reflect ethnic divisions, the population of states and regions, the presence of mountainous terrain, and the timing of region creation.

Replication:  Data and code to reproduce the main results can be found here.

Getting Ahead in the Communist Party:
Explaining the Advancement of
Central Committee Members in China

American Political Science Review, 2012, Vol. 106 (1): 166—187.

Victor Shih, Christopher Adolph, and Mingxing Liu

Spectacular economic growth in China suggests the ruling Chinese Communist Party (ccp) has somehow gotten it right. A key hypothesis across both economics and political science is that the ccp’s cadre evaluation system, combined with China’s geography-based governing logic, has motivated local administrators to compete with one another to generate high growth. We raise a number of theoretical and empirical challenges to this claim. Using a new biographical database of Central Committee members, a previously overlooked feature of ccp reporting, and a novel Bayesian method which can estimate individual-level correlates of partially observed ranks, we find no evidence strong growth performance was rewarded with higher party ranks at any of the post-reform party congresses. Instead, factional ties with various top leaders, educational qualifications, and provincial revenue collection played substantial roles in elite ranking, suggesting promotion systems served the immediate needs of the regime and its leaders, rather than encompassing goals like economic growth.

Replication:  Data and code to reproduce the main results can be found here.

Mobilizing Bias in Europe:
Lobbies, Democracy and eu Health Policy-Making

European Union Politics, 2008, Vol. 9 (3): 403—433.

Scott L. Greer, Elize Massard da Fonseca, and Christopher Adolph

Sage Award for Best Article in European Union Politics in 2008

What effects do interest groups have on the democratization and legitimacy of the European Union (eu)? Interest groups can democratize the eu only to the extent that they do not replicate inequalities. We use a newly constructed database to look for inequalities: Are the big organizations in Brussels the same as the ones in the eu member states? Are some member states’ lobbies more active than others? And does the structure of eu lobbying create insiders and outsiders itself? We find representative biases in favor of powerful incumbents, groups from some member states and well-resourced groups.

Replication:  Underlying data can be found here.

A Consensus on Second Stage Analyses
in Ecological Inference Models

Political Analysis, 2003, Vol. 11 (1): 86—94.

Christopher Adolph and Gary King with Michael C. Herron and Kenneth W. Shotts

Since Herron and Shotts (2003a), Adolph and King (2003), and Herron and Shotts (2003b), the four of us have iterated many more times, learned a great deal, and arrived at a consensus on this issue. This paper describes our joint recommendations for how to run second-stage ecological regressions, and provides detailed analyses to back up our claims.

Analyzing Second Stage Ecological Regressions:
Comment on Herron and Shotts

Political Analysis, 2003, Vol. 11 (1): 65—76.

Christopher Adolph and Gary King

We take this opportunity to comment on Herron and Shotts (2003) because of its interesting and productive ideas and because of the potential to affect the way a considerable body of practical research is conducted...

Other Articles

Visual Interpretation and Presentation of Monte Carlo Results  

The Political Methodologist, 2003, Vol. 11 (2): 31—35.

Christopher Adolph

Monte Carlo experiments test models on artificial datasets with known properties to assess the likely performance of an estimator in empirical work. Although the increasing savvy of political methodology has brought more and better Monte Carlo work, it is not always presented clearly or thoroughly. In particular, Monte Carlo results often appear in unwieldy tables rather than elegant graphics. I propose five guidelines for Monte Carlo graphics. I also define five graphic styles which help show the comparative performance of models over the parameter space, even when the models and parameters are many.

Party Schools  

American Prospect, December 18, 2000, 16—17.

Christopher Adolph

A comparison of the parties' school finance record in the states reveals stark differences. (The technical report underlying this article can be found here.)

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