Lectures           Click on lecture titles to view slides or the buttons to download them as PDFs.

Day 1

Shocks and Trends in the Twenty-First Century  

Day 2

Contours of Change  

Day 3

Economics of the Financial Crisis, Part 1  

In discussing the answers to last week’s quiz, we will also consider a brief “reaction paper” I wrote regarding limits to the concept of moral hazard.

Day 4

Economics of the Financial Crisis, Part 2  

As you relive the financial crisis of the late 2000s, here are three news articles from 2025 to ponder regarding renewed systemic risks: on growing risks in the insurance sector, on the damage to financial regulation done by Musk’s cuts to the SEC and FDIC, and on the looming possibility of a Bitcoin bailout.

Class day update (9 April 2025). The president’s high and arbitrary new tariffs have caused an overnight bear market: a sudden, man-made catastrophe with little historical precedent. In just one week, the chaos has already spread to financial markets, as (1) hedge funds sell bonds to cover their high leverage losses on equities, (2) global investors question whether US sovereign debt is even a safe haven anymore, and (3) the financial sector begins to teeter on a possible 2008-style crisis, with the risk that the economic damage will far exceed that caused by tariffs alone – or reparable by simply returning tariffs to sane levels.

Coda, evening of 9 April 2025, via the New York Times. “Mr. Bessent played a significant role in steering the president toward the pause. But the real credit, Mr. Trump’s advisers admit privately, should go to the bond markets. Mr. Trump’s decision was driven by fear that his tariffs gamble could quickly turn into a financial crisis. And unlike the two previous crashes of the past 20 years – the global financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020 – this crisis would have been directly attributable to only one man.”

Day 5

Politics of the Financial Crisis, Part 1  

Day 6

Politics of the Financial Crisis, Part 2  

Day 7

Stimulus, Austerity, and Recovery in the US  

See also this book review dealing with the debate over the Obama administration’s decision to seek a smaller-than-economically-indicated stimulus.

Day 8

The Euro, Austerity, and Crisis, Part 1  

A handy summary of key economic indicators for selected countries involved in the Eurocrisis (and a reference case) before the crisis, at the peak of the crisis, and later in the 2010s.

Day 9

The Euro, Austerity, and Crisis, Part 2  

Day 10

Automation, Employment, and Inequality, Part 1  

See also this fascinating review of the “overwork premium” and its strongly gendered consequences. The article contains many links to recent studies. Pay close attention to Claudia Goldin’s arguments. (How do they relate to Goldin and Katz’s book, which we read this week?)

Day 11

Automation, Employment, and Inequality, Part 2  

In addition to the articles listed or linked from the syllabus, see the following recent quick hits on (gift links or free-to-read): (1) embodied AI in China, (2) more on automation in China, (3) the massive intellectual property issues raised by AI, (4) one company’s experience using AI to replace workers, and (5) a brief letter on some potential political economy ramifications of AI. Also interesting is this (gated) article on AI slop clogging the internet (also available in the course reserve). Finally, this abstract of a currently embargoed paper raises striking new concerns about the political implications of large-language models.

Class day addendum. Today’s New York Times reports on rising rates of hallucination in a so-called “reasoning” AI models.

Day 12

Capital’s Return, Part 1  

To help calibrate our understanding of just how long lasting the benefits of inherited wealth can be, consider England, where direct descendants of the Norman conquerors of 1066 retain significant economic advantages, and where a tiny fraction of (often aristocratic) landowners still hold most of the land.

Days 13 & 14

Capital’s Return, Parts 2 & 3  

Day 15

Democratic Paralysis and Right-wing Populism  

Please also read these insightful articles from the Washington Post and the New York Times on the 2019 closure of the Lordstown GM plant and its impact of Youngstown-area workers.

For a ground-level view of the 2020 election in Youngstown, watch this Guardian video.

My findings on metro-level presidential partisan swings in the 2016 US presidential election can be replicated by running this R script on data scraped by Tony McGovern from Townhall.com and The Guardian (last accessed 14 May 2017).

Day 16

The Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Economies  

Day 17

The New Authoritarianism and the Decline of Democracy  

Since 20 January 2025, the pace of encroaching authoritarianism, corruption, and the breakdown of the rule of law in the United States has been overwhelming. Masha Gessen provides a warning from the Russian experience on how quickly the shock of authoritarianism shifts to bitter acceptance, and democratic decline ceases to be news, while Josh Marshall warns that much of the assault on civil society is underreported out of fear.

Day 18

The War on State Capacity  

For an overview of the wreckage left behind by Elon Musk as he ostensibly exits the federal government, read this article in the Guardian. On the potential consequences of declining state capacity on US competition with China, see this perspective. On the sudden shutdown of American science, see articles in Nature and the New York Times. Finally, on the possibility of a cryptocurrency financial crisis and bitcoin bailout, see this piece in Slate.

Day 19

Solutions to 21st Century Problems  

Above you will find questions submitted by the class of Spring 2025. You may also be interested in the questions asked by classes in Spring 2023, Spring 2021, Spring 2019, Spring 2017, and Winter 2015.

See also this sobering article on the effect of AI on employment for recent college graduates.

Student Assignments

Reaction Papers

Due on Pre-arranged Dates

For three pre-arranged class meetings, students will turn in a 2–3 page “reaction paper” addressing that day’s readings. To receive full credit, this paper must be more than a summary of arguments from the readings. A good reaction paper can take several forms: you might choose to critique one or more readings closely, to compare and contrast the arguments and findings of several readings, or to place the readings in a broader context, including earlier readings in the course. Reaction papers are due via Canvas at the beginning of class; late papers will not be accepted.

Final Paper  

Due 10 June 2025, 3 pm

Students in POLS/ECON 409 will write a longer (approximately 10–12 page) paper drawing on the course readings to answer an assigned question. Papers that clearly develop an argument and support that argument with well-sourced and explained evidence will receive the highest marks. Papers that fail to make a clear argument, that provide only weak, poorly explained, or poorly sourced evidence, or that suffer from serious deficits in writing will be marked down accordingly. Please see syllabus for details of the final assignment for POLS 589 students.