QMETH 450: Winter 2005
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Schedule |
Mon., January 3 |
Read: Text, Ch. 1 | Modeling with Spreadsheets In this session we will discuss the role of models in managerial decision making, including the use of spreadsheets, and provide an overview of the models and techniques to be covered in this quarter. We will then "jump right in" and develop a spreadsheet model that addresses a managerial decision to be made. |
Wed., January 5 |
Read: Text, Ch. 2 (skip or skim Sections 2.5 and 2.7) | Introduction/Review of Linear Programming with Spreadsheets Through a hands-on example (using Lego building blocks), we introduce (and/or review) the linear programming model. We will then discuss the use of the Solver feature in Microsoft Excel for modeling and solving such problems. We discuss the benefits and pitfalls of modeling a problem as a linear model. |
| Mon., January 10 Session #3 |
Read: Text, Ch. 3 Due: Problem Set #1 (Spreadsheet Modeling) |
Prudent Financial Services Case Study The objective of this session is to improve students' ability to develop models in spreadsheets. We discuss the process of modeling, some guidelines for building good spreadsheet models, and techniques for debugging spreadsheet models. |
Wed., January 12 |
Read: Text, Chapter 4 Optional Readings: George Dantzig's Diet Menu Planning Models United Airlines |
Applications of LP Models In this session we learn to recognize the various kinds of managerial problems to which linear programming can be applied. We will formulate linear programs that address problems from a variety of different business areas. |
| Mon., January 17 | Martin Luther King Day No class. | |
Wed., January 19 |
Read: Text, Ch. 5 Due: Problem Set #2 (Linear Programming) |
Sensitivity Analysis We discuss the use of Solver output for performing post-optimality or sensitivity analysis for linear programs. This analysis is useful in testing the robustness of the solutions to a particular model, and also in providing valuable economic information about the problem being analyzed. |
Mon., January 24 |
Read: Text, Ch. 6 Optional Reading: Proctor & Gamble |
Transportation and Assignment Problems In this session we will discuss the use of spreadsheet models to handle transportation, distribution, and assignment problems. |
Wed., January 26 |
Read: Text, Sections 7.1-7.4 Optional Reading: |
Network Models Transportation, electrical, and communication networks pervade our daily lives. In this session, we discuss applications of network optimization. We then discover that most network optimization problems are really special types of linear programming problems. We discuss minimum-cost flow, maximum flow, and shortest path problems. |
Mon., January 31 |
Read: Text, Ch. 9 Due: Problem Set #3 (Sensitivity Analysis, Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models) |
Integer Models and Making Yes-or-No Decisions In this session we address problems where some or all of the decision variables are required to assume integer values. We discuss when rounding is appropriate and when it is not. We also discuss the application of binary variables to making "yes-or-no" type decisions. |
Wed., February 2 |
Read: Text, Ch. 10 | Nonlinear Models and Applications Here we discuss spreadsheet models with a nonlinear objective function and/or nonlinear constraints. What are the ramifications on solvability? |
Mon., February 7 |
Read: Text, Ch. 11 | Multiple Objectives and Goal Programming In this session we look at problems that have more than one objective. Techniques for addressing all of the objectives are discussed. |
Wed., February 9 |
Read: Text, Sec. 12.1-12.3 Due: Problem Set #4 |
Introduction to Decision Analysis We discuss an approach to making decisions when there is uncertainty or risk present. We will discuss different criteria for making decisions and introduce decision trees as a tool for framing these problems. The TreePlan Excel add-in for developing decision trees is demonstrated. |
| Mon., February 14 Session #12 |
TBA | |
Wed., February 16 |
Read: Text, Sec. 12.4-12.11 Due: Midterm Exam |
Sequential Decisions, The Value of Information, Risk Aversion, and Utility
Functions Here we will discuss methods for adapting decision trees to evaluate the value of information that might be gathered before a decision needs to be made. Then we introduce the concept of risk aversion and discuss the importance of incorporating risk attitudes in a decision analysis model. We will discuss the use of utility functions to model risk aversion. |
| Mon., February 21 | President's Day No class. | |
Wed., February 23 Spreadsheets: Walton, Sales Data, Global Oil |
Skim: Text, Ch.15 Read: Text, Sec. 16.1-16.8 |
Simulation and Crystal Ball In this session we discuss and demonstrate the role of simulation as a tool for analyzing systems involving uncertainty or risk. We discuss the use of the Crystal Ball Excel add-in for performing Monte-Carlo simulation. |
Mon., February 28 Spreadsheets: Bidding, Overbooking, New Car |
Due: Problem Set #5 (Decision Analysis) |
Applications of Simulation In this session we continue discussion of Monte-Carlo simulation and the Crystal Ball Excel add-in to applications in finance, marketing, and operations. |
Wed., March 2 Spreadsheets: Bidding, Overbooking, Project Selection |
Read: Text, Section 16.9 Optional Reading: The OptQuest Approach to Simulation with Crystal Ball |
Optimizing with Simulation In this session we discuss how optimization can be performed with a simulation spreadsheet model. The OptQuest add-in for Crystal Ball will be demonstrated. |
Mon., March 7 |
Read: Text, Sect. 14.1-14.7 Due: Problem Set #6 |
Models for Analyzing Waiting Lines In this session we introduce analytical models and corresponding spreadsheet templates for predicting the effects of congestion in waiting line systems. Single and multiple-server queues, priority queues, and systems with finite queue capacity will all be discussed. |
Wed., March 9 |
Read: Text, Sec. 14.8-14.11 | Analysis of Waiting Lines In this session, we utilize the queuing spreadsheet templates to make the following kinds of decisions: How many servers should we use? How much space needs to be made available for the waiting line? How many phone lines and representatives should a call center utilize? When should a priority scheme be utilized? |
| Mon, March 14 | Take-Home Final Exam due | Exam passed out on Monday, March 7 (in class) |