U. Washington, Geography 349, trade policy
notes
University
of Washington
Geography 349
(Harrington)
International Trade Policy
Contents:
Things to be kept in mind
throughout the quarter:
· economic versus political
arguments
· political feasibility of
solutions -- how to increase this feasibility,
via
- internal (domestic)
negotiation,
- international
negotiation, or
- information
dissemination
BASIC
DEFINITIONS
TRADE
BARRIERS: Tariffs
tariff or duty:
"a governmental tax levied on a good shipped
internationally" [D&R: 249], typically by
the government of the importing country.
Who ultimately pays an import tariff is a
function of the relative price elasticity of
demand in the importing country: if
demand is inelastic, the purchasers pay a
price that is higher nearly by the amount of
the tariff; if demand is elastic, the
importer cannot pass so much of the tariff on
to its buyers.
countervailing duty:
an import tariff levied to compensate for
subsidies or dumping on the part of the
exporting country or company.
TRADE
BARRIERS: Nontariff barriers
that restrict the quantity of goods
imported
quota: a
governmentally imposed "limit [to] the
quantitative amount of a product allowed to be
imported in a given year" [D&R:
256]. Because a quota restricts supply
directly, domestic producers can raise prices
and keep the increased profit (unless the
government levies a compensating tax on
domestic producers ).
discriminatory
procurement: government
restrictions on the government procurement of
imported products (or contract bids from
foreign producers); "buy local"
legislation.
discriminatory
standards: government-mandated
product or labeling standards that arbitrarily
discriminate in favor of domestic products.
import license:
formal permission from a national government,
required before an importer can receive goods.
administrative delays:
public- or private-sector slowness in
processing required import paperwork.
professional licensing:
governments or private organizations may make
it difficult or impossible for foreign-based
professionals to obtain licenses to practice
in the country.
professional travel
restrictions: governments may make
it difficult or impossible for foreign-based
professionals to obtain temporary visas to
practice in the country.
TRADE
BARRIERS: Nontariff barriers that
affect the relative price of products
subsidies:
financial or service support by governments to
assist domestic producers identify and sell to
foreign markets; financial support or
favorable contracts from government to
domestic producers who are engaged in
exporting.
discriminatory customs
valuation: inflating the imputed
value of imported goods for the purpose of
levying an ad valorem tariff.
dumping:
private- or public-sector selling of goods (or
services) in foreign markets for less than the
typical price in the domestic market, or even
for less than the marginal cost of producing
for the foreign markets.
TRADE
POLICIES
Protectionist
versus open markets: a matter
of degree
Managed trade:
trade that is controlled, directed, or
administered by government policies; bilateral
or multilateral trade agreements that
establish quantitative targets for trade flows
Strategic trade
policy: industry-specific
protection, for national-security,
economic-strategy or "infant-industry" reasons
(see Daniels & Radebaugh,
p. 240)
Import substitution
as a policy of economic development
Export promotion
as a policy of economic development
ECONOMIC RATIONALES
FOR PROTECTION
[see Daniels & Radebaugh, pp.238-247]
Economic concerns
over reducing trade barriers (trade
liberalization)
|
Economic counter-arguments
|
Counter-counter
arguments
|
negative distributional effects within
countries (less abundant factors and
less productive sectors lose) |
Use some portion of the gains from
trade to support the movement of
unemployed people or capital to other
sectors, or to support those who lose
under trade liberalization. |
These "side payments" are often
promised up front, but are seldom
delivered. |
negative distributional effects among
countries (uneven gains
from
trade) |
As long as each nation faces some
gain from trade, trade is a net
positive.
Increase private investment among
countries and the institutional
arrangements that allow these
flows.
Direct aid to countries facing negative
effects. |
Increased foreign investment can
exacerbate the negative distributional
effects within and among
countries.
Direct aid is seldom sufficient. |
negative economic development effects
within certain countries (e.g., infant
industries) |
How much and for how long should
inefficiencies and higher costs be
encouraged, for the purposes of eventual
sectoral development?
Once sector-specific protection is
established, the political capability to
end it is eroded. |
Highly industrialized (or
"post-industrial") countries had the
benefit of little international
competition during key moments on their
development. |
ARGUMENTS FOR
PROTECTION:
F.R. Root (International
Trade and Investment; 1990)
presented these in 4 categories:
"False
arguments"
1. "Money is
valuable, and should be kept in the country."
· imports are paid
either with exports or with net capital inflow
2. "Jobs are
valuable, and should be kept in the country."
· people should be
employed at their most productive activities,
not at activities that could be better
performed elsewhere
· under-employed
resources should be put to use most
productively, and under-employment should be
attacked via domestic economic policy rather
than trade policy
3. "Imports have
unfair advantages (e.g., lower waged labor),
which should be compensated for by tariff or
other barriers."
· if there were no
advantages, there would be no gains from trade
· if a foreign
government wants to subsidize the consumption
of another government through keeping export
costs low, the importing country benefits
4. "Trade brings
all wages to the lowest common
denominator; high-wage countries cannot
afford to trade with low-wage countries."
· trade will
equilibrate real wages at prevailing exchange
rates only if all other elements of
cost (resource base, productivity, capital
costs, infrastructure, labor skills,
technologies, etc., for each possible product)
are equal across countries: there are
gains from trade so long as the cost ratios
for production of different items are
different across countries
5. "Moves toward
increased trade would hurt certain domestic
sectors."
· yes, but to the
greater benefit of the country as a whole.
"Questionable
arguments"
1. "When factors
(especially people) are unemployed, it is
better to put them to work producing something
that is more efficiently produced abroad, than
to have unemployed resources."
· Root argues that
we don't have to employ every acre of land or
worker-hour to maximize output/input;
the problem, however, stems from the political
difficulty of sharing returns across
households when the factors that some
households have to offer are not used, and
from the identification of market labor with
livelihood.
· Root argues that
trade policy is not the best arena for
building employment policy: cyclical
unemployment calls for countercyclical
measures, and structural unemployment calls
for structural change enhanced by assistance
to factor mobility (information, training)
· The likelihood of
international retaliation reduces the
long-term effectiveness of a protectionist
approach to employment policy.
2. "When a foreign
company or government subsidizes exports to
sell at a price lower than costs ("dumping"),
the unfair competition must be stopped."
· Root distinguishes
between persistent and predatory dumping (in
reality, it is difficult to distinguish
them); the former is a positive
inter-country transfer of wealth, and should
be welcomed; the latter should face
countervailing duties to prevent the
destruction of a basically sound domestic
industry and subsequent import-price hikes.
· How can you know
which is which?
3. "Trade barriers
can be useful bargaining chips in
negotiations."
· Yes, but they are
also hindrances to a country's citizens
reaping benefits of efficient foreign
production.
4. "Reciprocity
argument," which we will study later as
"managed trade": "a country with
relatively few trade barriers should raise
barriers against countries that don't lower
theirs."
· would the net
result be the removal of trade barriers or
their ratcheting upward? a matter of
international politics
"Qualified
arguments"
1. National
security: "We need to maintain
production capacity in key industries"
· Root recognizes
that economic costs are appropriately borne in
the interest of security, but asks which
industries should be protected.
· After industries
are selected, the economic preference is for a
subsidy to the domestic industry rather than a
tariff or barrier to imports -- the difference
is that the subsidy costs all taxpayers
through the Treasury rather than consumers
through the "hidden tax" of the tariff.
2. " 'Infant
industries' can become efficient with
temporary protection to gain economies of
scale or experience."
· Hard to identify
the best candidates, hard to remove the
protection.
· Root suggests a
subsidy, because it is reviewed with each
appropriation cycle (though in the case of
agricultural subsidies...)
This argument essentially
cites a market failure: an unwillingness
of capital markets to supply (patient) capital
to a sector that is likely to become quite
profitable. Therefore, the best solution
is to provide a capital subsidy of some sort,
while retaining international competition.
3. "Specialization
according to comparative advantage brings the
cost of export-earnings instability if
specialization is in basic commodities, and
brings the cost of unbalanced development in
general."
· Industrial
targeting for additional exports is difficult,
but it is better than protective tariffs in
the name of import substitution.
Immiserating
trade, as defined by
Jagdish Bhagwati, occurs when a
country's comparative advantage is in
the production of a commodity that
faces
1)
income-inelastic external demand (or,
worse, is an inferior good, with
demand declining as incomes rise) and
2)
price-inelastic external demand, along
with
3) global
competition from other producers of
the same commodity. |
In such
cases,
· demand for
its product does not increase as world
incomes increase;
·
international competition may lead it
to over-production, which results in a
price that falls more rapidly than
output expands;
· attempting
to compete by lowering prices further
does not generate additional
revenue; and meanwhile,
· its
specialized imports are rising in
price, at least in terms of trade, so
that its developed-world trade
partners see an increasing proportion
(all?) of the gains from trade. |
Remedies?
·
industrialization within the LDC, to
move exports out of commodity basis
· capital mobility
out of developed countries (the
NIDL); this could pauperize
certain components of the DC labor
force, without raising wages in the
LDC (as long as there is a continual
flow of LDC labor from the subsistence
sector to the wage sector) |
"Sophisticated
arguments"
1. "Tariffs can be
placed on imports for which supply
elasticities are less than import-demand
elasticities (e.g., for which the importing
country is a near-monopsonist because of size,
proximity, or other attribute) such that net
revenue is raised for the importing country's
government": the theory of the "optimal
tariff."
· Could start a
trade war; certainly reduces the income
(and buying power) of countries that export
commodities to countries with many other
possible sources.
2. "Theory of the
second best": counter the distorted
signals of free trade (amid scale economies,
under-used factors that don't clear the
market, etc.) with tariffs to help manage
trade flows in line with better factor
use. I.e., the market is not working
because of externalities or government
intervention, so increase the government
intervention.
· This reasoning
could be used to justify a tariff set to equal
government-imposed costs of domestic
producers, when the government tax is for a
public good (e.g., education or pollution
control or health care).
· This may be a
second-best way out of the difficulty that
national governments are having in
implementing domestic policies (like a
health-insurance tax) within an
internationally competitive context.
3. The newest
argument relies upon dynamic economies of
scale, especially those that are
external to the firms in the given
sector: at the meso-economic level,
these might be called dynamic comparative
advantage. Sources for externalities
include the inability of a firm to appropriate
all the returns to its investment in
technology or labor training. Dillon et
al. suggest a direct response rather than a
trade-policy response: a subsidy to
technology or labor-training expenditures.
POLITICAL BASES
FOR TRADE POLICY
(see, optionally, Daniels &
Radebaugh, pp. 247-249)
Political concerns over free
trade
· national sourcing for national security
(but if taken too far...)
· insulation from foreign influences
Politics of trade
• international politics:
a) the end of the Cold War --> reduced
foreign-policy mandate for each of the three
economic superpowers to agree (typically with
the US giving in on trade matters) to maintain
an anti-Soviet alliance;
b) trade politics became front-burner
issues, with the three economic superpowers seen
as antagonists;
c) unstable alliance between US & EC
against Japan (with CFTA and NAFTA seen as a US
attempt to "warn" EC)
• domestic politics
· US:
protectionist organized L; somewhat
protectionist L; business split between
national vs. global lines, and according to
sector; agricultural interests (esp.
organized around Congressional representatives
from agric. regions); unorganized
consumers
· Japan: mutually organized big
business and government; strong
agricultural interests; "Japanese consumer
interests that stood to benefit from greater
competition were simply not accorded a place on
the Japanese side of the negotiating table"
[Tyson, 1993: 74].
There is a systematic bias when it comes to
government policy making, exemplified
perfectly by trade policy-making: the
minor impact of a policy on the majority of
people makes them politically passive with
regard to that policy; the political
process is dominated by the relatively few
interests with a substantial stake in each
given issue. Thus, few people vote for a
candidate on the basis of a platform to gain
access to somewhat better products at somewhat
lower prices, while anyone whose job or
investment is at risk will vote, campaign, and
donate money to protect it.
Given this, the substantial liberalization of
trade over the past two decades reflects the
political power of MNCs (i.e., most large firms)
-- not the popular triumph of economic
orthodoxy. Unfortunately, this route
toward liberalization has meant that the "side
payments," that might compensate aggrieved
parties from the gains to a country overall,
have not often been made.
What are appropriate labor strategies, within
the context of economic liberalism?
|