University of Washington, Geography 349,
Introduction
University
of Washington - Tacoma
Geography
349 (Professor
Harrington)
U.S. Perspectives on
International Economic Activity
Contents:
COURSE OVERVIEW (also
see the course
syllabus)
This course can be seen as a
matrix, covering:
|
THEORY
|
PRACTICE
|
POLICY
|
INTERNATIONAL TRADE |
international trade theory |
foreign exchange, international
marketing, trade logistics |
international trade policy |
FOREIGN INVESTMENT |
complementarity of trade and capital
flows; non-trade forms of
international business |
multinational business operations |
regulatory environments of
international business |
NATIONAL (AND
SUBNATIONAL) IMPACTS |
international trade theory;
development theories; interaction
of mobile and immobile factors and
regulation |
n/a |
supernational regulatory regimes |
It is customary to distinguish two types of foreign
investment (ownership of assets that are
held in a country other than that of the owner):
- foreign direct investment (FDI),
which gives the foreign owner a controlling
interest in the asset (typically, the asset is
an operating enterprise) and
- foreign portfolio investment, in
which the foreign owner has a stake but not
controlling interest in the asset (which could
be a bond, shares of stock, etc.).
Of these two, this course will emphasize FDI and
the operations of multinational corporations
(MNCs).
GLOBALIZATION?
One theme in this course
questions the nature and extent of globalization,
for which students offered several definitions
in class:
- global sourcing of goods and services (by
businesses and consumers, and sometimes even
by governments);
- one world (in terms of the economy and of
dominant culture).
I'll offer the definition:
- the extent to which supra-
or international institutions (e.g., firms,
agreements, and organizations) and markets
are key drivers of economic (and many
non-economic) relationships.
Two concepts that I will invoke in discussing
globalization are:
fordism: the macroeconomic
interdependence between mass production and mass
consumption, via the mechanism of domestically
oriented manufacturing with high wages, in a
moderately closed economy, supported by (1)
oligopolistic corporations and (2) labor unions
as well as (3) government that uses corporate
and other taxes to underwrite human and physical
investment and to support demand in key sectors
commodification: tendency for
increasing numbers of relationships to become
explicit exchange relationships.
The historical context of these issues is often
encapsulated in a set of perceived and
often-discussed changes in the world economy, with
the 1970s often invoked as the watershed period:
from...
|
to...
|
distinct national cultures |
cultural internationalization,
and localized reactions thereto |
distinct national economies |
globalization and
global capitalism |
fordism |
post-fordism (international
separation of production and
consumption, downward wage pressures
everywhere, and fragmentation of
markets) |
many services performed within
households |
commodification of nearly all
service and goods provision |
hierarchical structures of
information flow and organizational
control |
networked information flows and
organizational control |
Over the past 30 years international trade has
grown much faster than the global economy
overall (see, for example, the linked
graph). The
Economist notes that international
trade was also a very large proportion of the
global economy during the heyday at the
end of the 19th century, when global
empires existed to provide raw materials for
manufacturing in the imperial centers.
World War I and later, the Great Depression,
vastly reduced the volume of international trade
and its proportion in the world economy.
[See this
section and Table 1 of the World Trade
Organization 2008 annual report, tracing eras of
rapid growth of international trade.]
MORE ON FORDISM
Rather than emphasizing only
the mass-production implications of fordism, I
will focus our attention on the broadest
definition of fordism
(see above), which is a mutually
reinforcing macroeconomic system of mass
production and mass consumption.
I say “mutually reinforcing” because the
high labor productivity of mechanized mass
production allows the payment of relatively high
wages, which in turn allow the mass consumption
that provides sufficient demand to sustain mass
production.
Among the institutional
arrangements that supported this system in the
"postwar era" (1950-73) of US, Canada, Germany,
France, and the UK (and some other countries):
- large, oligopolistic
corporations that could engage in large-scale
mass production, and could pass on cost
increases to their markets;
- strong labor unions that primarily focused
on wages;
- widespread consumer credit that increased
consumers' purchasing power and tied them to
their jobs;
- an "international division of labor" (i.e.,
trade patterns) in which wealthy
industrialized countries imported raw
materials from poorer, non-industrialized
countries and exported manufactured goods --
so that in the wealthy countries, the
relatively high-wage manufacturing workers and
managers were the mass consumers.
The very
name "post-fordism"
implies that this is less of a coherent concept
and system, and more the mix of things that have
followed the heyday of fordism.
For corporations, this includes less mass
production of standardized products and more
flexible, small-batch production of a wide
variety of products. It
also includes vertical AND GEOGRAPHIC
disintegration, so that much manufacturing is
conducted by different firms and IN DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES at different stages in the value chain
(design, component production, assembly,
distribution...). We
consumers in wealthy countries are no longer the
producers of many of the physical products we
consume. More of us
are involved in the production of services,
which have a notoriously bi-modal wage structure
-- lots of very low-paid workers, and lots of
moderately well-paid workers.
Also see:
* A several-year-old description of Nike's
production system, viewed through the lens
of post-fordism.
Oligopoly:
several very large suppliers for a
market; each supplier attempting to
distinguish its products or services
from the others. |
MACROECONOMIC
PERSPECTIVES ON
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
GDP = C +
I + G + X - M
C =
personal consumption expenditures, as a
percent of GDP
I = private
domestic investment, as a percent of GDP
G = expenditures
and investment by Federal, state, and local
governments, as a percent of GDP
X = exports as a
percent of GDP
M = imports as a
percent of GDP
Year
|
GDP (billions)
|
C
|
I
|
G
|
X
|
M
|
1933
|
$
56.2
|
82%
|
3%
|
15%
|
4%
|
3%
|
1945
|
223.2
|
54
|
5
|
42
|
3
|
3
|
1965
|
719.1
|
62
|
16
|
21
|
5
|
4
|
1973
|
1,382.6
|
62
|
18
|
21
|
7
|
7
|
1987
|
4,692.3
|
66
|
16
|
21
|
6
|
11
|
2000
|
9,817.0
|
69
|
18
|
18 a
|
11
|
15
|
2008
|
14,441.4
|
70
|
15
|
20 b
|
13
|
18
|
2009
|
14,256.3
|
71
|
11
|
21c
|
11
|
14
|
2012
|
16,244.6
|
69
|
15
|
19d
|
14
|
17
|
a This 18% = 4%
(Federal defense expenditures) + 2% (Federal
non-defense expenditures) + 12% (state &
local government expenditures)
b This 20% = 5.1% (Federal defense
expenditures) + 2.3% (Federal non-defense
expenditures) + 12.5% (state & local
government expenditures)
c This 21% = 5.5% (Federal defense
expenditures) + 2.6% (Federal non-defense
expenditures) + 12.5% (state & local
government expenditures)
d
This 19% = 5.0% (Federal defense
expenditures) + 2.9% (Federal non-defense
expenditures) + 11.5% (state & local
government expenditures)
With this macroeconomic context, let's
look at U.S. trade flows, their trends,
and their components. We'll define these
terms in class:
U.S. INTERNATIONAL
TRANSACTIONS, 2012
(all figures in millions of current U.S.
dollars)
Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis, International
Accounts Data, Balance of Payments
Tables; http://www.bea.gov/ rev 12/17/13
1 |
Exports
of goods, services, income |
2,986,949 |
3 |
Goods |
1,561,239
|
4 |
Services
(travel, royalties, private services) |
649,346
|
12 |
Income
receipts (on U.S. assets abroad) |
770,079
|
17 |
Compensation
of employees
|
6,286
|
18
|
Imports of goods,
service, income
|
-3,297,677
|
20 |
Goods |
-2,302,714
|
21 |
Services
(travel, transp, royalties, private
services, defense exp. abroad) |
-442,527 |
29 |
Income
payments (on foreign assets in U.S.) |
-537,815 |
34
|
Compensation of employees
|
-14,622
|
35 |
Unilateral
current transfers, net |
-129,688 |
39
|
Capital account
transactions, net
|
6,956
|
40 |
U.S. assets
abroad, net change |
-97,469 |
51
|
US FDI abroad, net change
|
-388,293
|
55 |
Foreign
assets in U.S., net change |
543,884
|
64
|
FDI into the US, net change
|
166,411
|
70
|
Financial
derivatives, net
|
-7,064
|
71 |
Statistical
discrepancy (sum of bold items above,
with sign reversed)
|
-5,891
|
|
Memoranda |
|
72 |
Balance on goods = (3) + (20) |
-741,475 |
73 |
Balance on services = (4) + (21) |
206,819
|
74 |
Balance on goods and services = (72) +
(73) |
-534,656 |
77 |
Balance on current account = (1) +
(18) + (35) = - [
(39) + (40) + (55) + (70) + (71)]
|
-440,416 |
What's
key to note is that the balance on
current account equals exports minus
imports, and that it equals the net
change in US assets abroad and
foreign assets in the US. In other
words, a trade deficit equals a net capital
inflow, and a trade surplus equals a net
capital outflow.
Related to this, understand the ostensible
self-correcting nature of trade deficits or
surpluses, as we will discuss in class.
Study the BEA
time-series graphs of the net annual
international transactions of the US:
- Describe the recent trends in the US current
account balance.
- How have the balances (money flowing in
minus money flowing out) on service trade,
goods trade, income on assets, and unilateral
transfers contributed to the US current
account balance?
- Which was larger in 2012: net
additions to US direct investment abroad, or
net additions to foreign direct investment in
the US? In what years was this
relationship reversed?
- In what year did foreign entities buy the
greatest amount of US securities (stocks,
bonds, government debt)?
- How would you describe the trend in the net
foreign investment position of the US?
What are the implications of this?
MICROECONOMIC
PERSPECTIVES ON
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
Why do companies engage in
international business (importing,
exporting, foreign licensing, foreign direct
investment)?
REVENUE ENHANCEMENT
- to gain greater benefit from scale economies
(declining marginal costs) by spreading costs
of technology, management, or information over
greater sales
COST REDUCTION
- to achieve lower factor costs (for land,
labor, technology, or capital) through
importing or foreign operations.
RISK REDUCTION
- to smooth the flow of revenues by spreading
across national markets (in the hopes that the
market cycles will vary)
- to reduce chance of supply disruption due to
shortages or labor disruptions
- to increase the power of the company over
specific labor, finance, product, or input
markets, or national regulatory regimes
How can international
business be regulated?
BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL
TREATIES
- which bind the signatory countries to open
trade and foreign investment in particular
items, and to regulate (or not regulate)
domestic economic activities
INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS
- for the treatment of labor, intellectual
property, environmental impacts
MARKET STANDARDS AND INFORMATION
- ISO (International
Organization for Standardization)
assesses establishments' production processes
for quality assurance (ISO 9000),
environmental protection (ISO 14000), etc.
- international assessment of production
conditions, providing information to concerned
purchasers
|