Executive Summary
City of SeaTac Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Feasibility
Project: Major Investment Study
August, 1997
Overview of the Study Process
The City of SeaTac Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
Feasibility Project is a Major Investment Study (MIS) that
has evaluated alternatives for improving transportation
services among various activity centers around the
International Boulevard area within the City, and the Sea-Tac
Airport.
A MIS is an analytic planning tool which addresses
subarea or corridor transportation issues through
comprehensive analysis. Specifically, a MIS defines the
nature of the transportation problem, develops alternatives
to address those problems, assesses the likely impacts of the
alternatives and identifies the preferred approach to solving
the problems. The product of a MIS is a Locally Preferred
Transportation Investment Strategy (LPTIS) which defines the
recommended improvement program.
The results assist officials at all government
levels who are involved with addressing these issues, in
making a more informed decision on potential solutions. The
MIS also serves as an element of a region's transportation
system planning process by providing the technical support
needed for decisions related to significant transportation
investments.
The purposes of the PRT Feasibility Project
included:
Develop a transit system that is supportive of growth
management and consistent with City planning policies and the
Puget Sound Regional Council's Vision 2020.
Fulfill all requirements of the Federal MIS
process.
Conduct an environmental analysis as part of the
evaluation of the alternatives.
Identify system performance and physical parameters
consistent with the objectives of PRT.
Assess the economic feasibility of PRT system
implementation and operation.
Develop an implementation program and funding approach
to move the project into design, construction and operation
at the earliest possible time, if the PRT system proves to be
feasible.
Generally, the study process encompassed the following
steps:
Project Objectives and Work Program Development -
Key findings of prior studies and plans relative to the
project area were reviewed, and an evaluation methodology for
assessing each of the alternatives was developed at the
beginning of the project.
Public Involvement Stakeholder Reviews -
Representatives of identified stakeholder groups were
interviewed to understand their concerns and impressions
about a PRT system in SeaTac.
Conceptual Alternatives Definition - the
alternatives were initially defined at a conceptual level for
public and agency comment.
Scoping Meeting - An Open House was held to
receive public comment regarding the proposed alternatives
and identify potential environmental issues relating to each
of the alternatives.
Alternatives Refinement - The alternatives were
further defined by preparing system performance parameters;
developing conceptual PRT route alignments, guideway,
station design and vehicle design; identifying the
Baseline capital elements; and developing an operating plan
for a consolidated courtesy van shuttle system.
Ridership Forecasts and PRT Operational
Simulation - Forecasts were completed for all the
alternatives along with an operational simulation for the PRT
alternatives to estimate origin to destination travel times,
identify vehicle requirements, and determine the overall
performance of the PRT route alignments and station
designations.
Environmental Analysis - The impacts of each
alternative relative to specific environmental issue areas
were assessed along with identifying potential
avoidance/mitigation measures where necessary; an
environmental clearance document was not part of this
MIS.
Cost Estimates - Preliminary cost estimates were
completed for the alternatives including capital cost
estimates for the PRT alternatives and Operating and
Maintenance cost estimates for the baseline, consolidated
shuttle and PRT alternatives.
Alternatives Evaluation - Each of the
alternatives was evaluated using the criteria and methodology
developed in the initial stages of the project prior to
development of the alternatives. The evaluation resulted in a
preferred alternative being recommended by a majority of the
Project's Steering Committee.
Implementation and Funding Analysis - An
implementation program for the preferred transportation
technology was developed, along with identification of
potential funding sources which together comprise the Locally
Preferred Transportation Investment Strategy (LPTIS), a
required outcome of an MIS.
Public Open House - An open house to present the
preliminary LPTIS was held to solicit input from public
agencies, local business operators, property owners and other
interested members of the public.
Conclusions/Recommendations - On July 22, 1997,
the SeaTac City Council voted to accept the report.
Study Structure and Collaboration
A Project Steering Committee (PSC) was formulated at the
beginning of the project and included representation of all
identified stakeholder groups. The PSC included
representation from each of the following:
SeaTac City Council; SeaTac Planning Commission;
SeaTac Public Works Staff; SeaTac Planning Staff; SeaTac City
Manager's Office; Port of Seattle; Washington Department of
Transportation; Puget Sound Regional Council; King County
Department of Transportation; Chamber of Commerce;
Hotel/Motels; Property Owners
The purpose of the PSC was to provide advice to the City
Council on the feasibility of this project. The PSC met
twelve times throughout the study to review and comment on
all study assumptions, methodologies and draft work products.
A second function was to give general guidance to the study.
The City Council was briefed at a study session and
invited to all public meetings.
Public Participation
The public was involved in the project in the following
ways:
Stakeholder Interviews - In January 1996, the
consultant team interviewed key selected stakeholders,
representing local business operators, SeaTac residents, and
the Port of Seattle, to identify significant issues,
opportunities, and challenges regarding the feasibility of
PRT in the SeaTac area.
Scoping Meeting - In April 1996, a scoping
meeting was held to provide information on the intent of the
PRT Feasibility Project, and stimulate discussions and obtain
feedback on desired PRT options and alternatives.
Meeting with Courtesy Van Operators - The
consultant team met with courtesy van operators in September
1996 to discuss the feasibility of a consolidated shuttle
system and issues associated with current courtesy van
operation in the SeaTac area.
Meeting with Area Businesses - Information on the
study recommendations was presented in March 1997 to local
business operators along with a question and answer
session.
Open House - Also in March 1997, a public open
house meeting was held to inform interested parties about the
preliminary study recommendations and answer questions.
Newsletter/Newspaper - The city newsletter,
SeaTac Report, and local newspaper, Highline Times, were used
to publish articles on the scoping meeting and Open
House.
The major comments received were:
How much would the PRT system cost and who was going to
pay for it?
The availability and feasibility of PRT technology?
General opposition by the existing courtesy van
operators to the concept of a consolidated shuttle due to the
lack of direct service?
Summary of Previous Study
The SeaTac People Mover Study, completed in
February 1992, explored the feasibility of a people mover
system within the City of SeaTac. The purpose of the study
was "to determine if a people mover system could have a
worthwhile mitigating effect on present and future traffic
within a limited area of the City of SeaTac and Sea-Tac
International Airport." The study evaluated the
potential of four people mover transit technologies. These
technologies included:
Bus; Light Rail Transit (LRT); Group Rapid Transit
(GRT); Personal Rapid Transit (PRT).
The study assessed each of these technologies on the
basis of capital cost, operation and maintenance costs,
ridership, and revenue availability for implementation. The
People Mover Study recommended a range of people mover
systems that should be pursued. Those technologies and their
uses are summarized below:
Shuttle buses should be used in the near-term (at least
five years) to fill the people mover function.
When available, PRT could replace many of the current
shuttle operations with comparable or superior levels of
service. No other technology was found to be as responsive to
the diverse internal travel patterns between existing and
future land uses in the study area.
GRT was found to be the best technology available to
serve airport employee parking facilities to and from the
airport terminal area.
Circulation between the proposed Airport light rail
station on International Boulevard and the main airport
terminal building may not be best served by PRT and should be
evaluated in more detail. Alternatives such as a moving
walkway connection should be considered further by the Port
of Seattle and the RTA.
The study concluded that these four components would
likely be staged depending on the rate and occurrence of
growth and technology development. The following
implementation steps were identified:
PRT People Mover System - conduct a feasibility
study to develop a preliminary design, perform a financial
planning and funding analysis, conduct an education program,
solicit public comment, and monitor PRT technology
development.
Airport HOV Access Terminal Facility - Develop a
preliminary design and operations plan for HOV access into
the Airport terminal area and implement the recommendations
of the
International Boulevard Design Study.
GRT Shuttle for Airport Employee Access - Develop
and review a plan for the development of a GRT system serving
the airport employee parking facilities.
Transit Services - Monitor and assess transit
service provided by King County Metro and courtesy van
operators and make recommended changes, when needed.
Coordination with Related Programs - Any
development of a people mover technology should be
coordinated with related programs being implemented in the
area, including the
Regional Transportation Plan (light rail
development), the 28th/24th Corridor study, SR 509/South
Access Corridor EIS, and the South Aviation Support Area
(SASA) EIS.
Since the completion of the 1992 SeaTac People
Mover Study, the city has implemented improvements to
International Boulevard, developed a Comprehensive Plan, and
Transit Supportive Land Use Master Plan that includes
policies supportive of a PRT system, monitored the results of
PRT technology development and applied for and received a
federal grant to conduct a PRT feasibility study. This
document reports on the results of the feasibility
study.
Transportation Problem
Travel patterns within the International Boulevard area are
characterized by trips to/from many generators (motels,
hotels, remote parking, car rental agencies, etc.) and the
airport. In the future, additional focus will be placed on
new development nodes such as the Aviation Business Center
and the regional light rail system which will increase the
need for a greater local distribution of trips.
The existing transportation problems within the SeaTac
area include the following:
A congested street system primarily along International
Boulevard and along the Airport's curb access roadways;
High frequency of private shuttle trips on surface
streets with low shuttle occupancies;
All airport passengers (auto, bus, taxi, courtesy vans,)
must utilize the area roadway system for airport access;
there is no alternative for access.
Unpredictable travel times, resulting from congestion on
the roadway system, during many hours of the day; and,
Regional traffic diversion onto International Boulevard
from I-5 to avoid congestion on the freeway facility.
In addition to the development of new business centers
within the City and growth consistent with the City's
Comprehensive Plan and Transit Supportive Master Plan, future
congestion growth in the SeaTac area will also be directly
related to airport passenger growth. The Sea-Tac
International Airport Master Plan Update, completed in 1996,
predicts airport passenger growth will occur at an average
annual rate between 2.2%-3.4% during the years 1993 to 2020.
In May 1997 the Supplemental EIS for the Proposed Master Plan
Update Development Actions revised these forecasts for the
years 2000-2010 to an average annual growth rate between
2.7%-3.7%. Assuming there is no change by passengers in their
current travel choices to and from the airport, this will
result in similar growth rates for courtesy van trip
operations. Currently courtesy van operators make
approximately 2,500 daily trips to and from the Airport.
Given the forecasted airport passenger growth, this number is
expected to grow to just over 5,000 daily trips by the year
2020. The increase in courtesy van trip frequencies will have
a significant impact on traffic operations on many critical
roadway links in and around the airport including
International Boulevard.
These problems are important considerations when
thinking about a community and region's livability.
Transportation is closely linked to many issues which define
quality of life including land use patterns, open space, air
quality, aesthetics, housing and employment. Because
International Boulevard is one of the primary access routes
to and from Sea-Tac Airport, it plays a vital role in the
region's economy. As a result, maintaining an efficiently
operating transportation network in the SeaTac area provides
benefits not only to the City, but also to the greater Puget
Sound area.
Additional benefits include:
Promotion of efficient land use patterns which in turn
reduce trip lengths and the cost of infrastructure, and
maintain high quality open space areas.
Improved local air quality resulting from reduced
roadway congestion and fewer vehicle miles traveled.
Greater accessibility to housing and employment areas,
which will encourage continued economic growth and
development.
Transit guideway modes offer a way to get around without
being caught in surface traffic.
Project Goals/Objectives and Evaluation Criteria
The three major goals for the people mover system
developed by the PSC to guide the evaluation of alternatives
were as follows:
Transportation Service/Mobility Goal: Develop
a People Mover system within the project study area that
maximizes mobility and is safe, efficient and coordinated
with other transportation services.
Environmental Impacts Goal: Develop a People
Mover system which enhances and preserves the physical and
natural environment, and is consistent with adopted local and
regional land use plans and transportation policies.
Financial Feasibility Goal: Develop a People
Mover system which provides the most efficient use of
financial resources.
From the goals and objectives, evaluation criteria were
developed. The criteria or Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs)
provided the data quantifying the impacts of each
alternative. To be useful in the evaluation process, the MOEs
were selected with the following properties:
Measurable. The data should be readily derived from
analyses conducted as part of this study.
The study includes analyses of transportation,
environmental, and financial impacts which provide the data
needed to generate all performance measures.
Relevant. The presentation of the MOEs should provide a
perspective on the magnitude of impacts as well as
differences among alternatives.
Understandable. MOEs should be expressed in terms that
are readily understood by non-technical decision-makers and
the general public.
Initially, twenty-five evaluation criteria were
identified at the beginning of the project and assessed for
each alternative. These were reduced by the Project Steering
Committee after the assessment to a list of twelve which were
considered to be the most relevant in making a recommendation
to the SeaTac City Council on a Locally Preferred
Transportation Investment Strategy (LPTIS). The Study Results
section of this report documents how the four alternatives
performed when tested against the twelve criteria.
Alternatives Evaluated
As a result of a meeting with Federal Transit
Administration officials, the Scoping Meeting, and the study
completed in the early 1990s, the Major Investment Study
utilized the conclusions of the 1992 study as a base and
evaluated four alternatives for the base year 2020. The
alternatives considered were:
Baseline - which assumes the existing and planned
services including transit priority treatments,
infrastructure improvements, and pedestrian
enhancements.
Consolidated Shuttle - which assumes all
conditions in the Baseline alternatives in addition to a
consolidated airport courtesy van system; this alternative
serves as the Transportation Systems Management (TSM)
alternative as required in the federal planning process.
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) A - which assumes
the development of a PRT system servicing major activity
centers/developments and the Sea-Tac Airport. (Alternative B
was dropped as described below.)
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) C - which assumes a
reduced PRT System from PRT A, but still provides service to
many of the major activity centers within the City of SeaTac
and the Sea-Tac Airport.
Baseline Alternative
The Baseline Alternative serves as the base for the
environmental analysis of the other alternatives. It also
served as the base for developing the Consolidated Shuttle
and PRT alternatives. The various elements of the baseline
alternative included the following planned/programmed
improvements:
Widening of and implementation of an HOV lane along
International Boulevard;
Traffic signal control improvements to provide signal
preemption for buses and improved signal timings during
period of congestion;
A moving sidewalk from International Boulevard to the
main airport terminal building at the pedestrian sky-bridge
level;
Redirecting Metro bus routes away from the airport
terminal access road and onto International Boulevard;
and
Increasing courtesy van per trip fees into the airport.
Consolidated Shuttle
(see map)
This alternative consolidates the existing courtesy van
routes which serve hotels, car rental agencies and park and
fly lots in the study area from 36 to ten. The alternative
assumes that all conditions present under the Baseline
Alternative will also occur.
The consolidated shuttle alternative provides a much
less capital-intensive alternative technology option to the
PRT alternatives. In the 1992 SeaTac People Mover Study, one
of the conclusions regarding choice of technology included a
consolidated shuttle system as a near-term (five year)
solution to the transportation problems affecting the area.
This alternative can be applied either as a near-term
solution, preceding implementation of a PRT technology, or as
the ultimate and preferred long-term solution.
The service criteria goals for the alternative
included:
Reduce vehicle miles traveled for existing courtesy van
operations.
Reduce inefficient shuttle service.
Reduce airport terminal roadway congestion.
Provide the same level of shuttle service coverage as
currently provided by the courtesy van service.
Provide frequent and convenient service for passengers
to their destinations and avoid excessive wait times.
Structure shuttle routes so they are convenient and
understandable for passengers/customers.
Minimize shuttle stops between the airport and passenger
destinations.
Under this alternative, existing courtesy van operations
are consolidated or grouped according to the geographical
location of existing hotels, car rental agencies, and park
and fly lot businesses which currently operate a courtesy van
service to the airport. While new businesses would be
developed by the year 2020, the consolidated shuttle service
is only shown to existing businesses. The geographical
groupings are the most practical option for arranging shuttle
service, providing the shortest travel times for passengers
and fewest vehicle miles traveled.
PRT Alternatives A and C
The two PRT network alternatives were developed
using a systematic process which included the following major
steps:
1. Identification of potentially high trip
generators;
2. Development of preliminary PRT network layout
connecting each of the generators;
3. Estimation of travel times among the generators;
4. Refinement of the network;
5. Development of system performance parameters;
6. Evaluation and selection of the fundamental network
differences between the two PRT alternatives;
7. Conceptual design of the guideway and stations;
8. Conceptual design of vehicles and operations
equipment;
9. Forecast of ridership; and
10. Operational simulation of the networks.
Initially two PRT networks were developed; the
primary difference was the service to the airport terminal.
Alternative A provided direct PRT service to this terminal
and Alternative B did not penetrate to the terminal, but
provided a connection to the proposed moving sidewalk just
west of International Boulevard. After completion of the
ridership estimates and operation simulation for the first
PRT Alternative, a refinement of the second PRT alternative
was made. This refinement was done primarily to reduce the
estimated capital costs of the system. The refinement also
considered the benefit of the direct access from the PRT
system into the central airport terminal area. As stated,
Alternative B did not provide direct access into the
airport terminal building. With current courtesy van
operations providing direct service into the terminal area,
Alternative B represented a decreased level of service from
the Baseline for airport bound passengers, and was deleted
from further consideration. The refined second PRT
Alternative, "C", resulted in a reduced guideway
length, elimination of several stations with low ridership,
but still provided PRT service directly into the central
airport terminal area. Figures 5 and 6 show the alignments
for Alternative A and C, which are further described
below.
PRT Alignment A (see map): The proposed alignment
generally follows International Boulevard from north of SR
518 Perimeter Road intersection to South 204th Street. The
alignment circulates into the Airport terminal building and
south between 24th and 28th Avenues South as well as east of
International Boulevard along 32nd Avenue South, and includes
32 stations along 18.2 miles of one-way guideway. It is
expected that approximately 265 vehicles would be required to
serve the forecasted daily ridership of 36,400. This
alignment represents the full development of a PRT system
within the City of SeaTac. No shuttle bus service is included
in the alternative; however, it is realized that some
businesses may continue with shuttle service.
PRT Alignment C (see map): The proposed alignment
generally follows International Boulevard from the north at
South 170th Street and to the south at South 200th Street.
The alignment circulates into the Airport terminal building
and south between 24th and 28th Avenues South as well as east
of International Boulevard along 32nd Avenue South, and
includes 21 stations on 12.1 miles of one-way guideway. It is
expected that approximately 210 vehicles would be required to
serve the forecasted daily ridership of 24,100. This
alignment could also represent a "first phase" of
Alignment A. Some bus shuttle service is included in the
alternative.
Figure 7: Schematic Diagram of One Alternative Concept
for Intermodal Connections shows how the regional light rail
service, the PRT service, and buses/pedestrians along
International Boulevard could interface with a moving walkway
connecting these multiple modes with Sea-Tac Airport. This
intermodal connection system would be located east of the
parking structures at the Airport.
Study Results
An alternatives evaluation serves several significant
purposes. First, the evaluation determines the value of
individual alternatives and the desirability of one
alternative over another. Second, the evaluation process
provides decision-makers with information on the impact of
the alternatives, trade-offs, and areas of uncertainty. And
third, evaluation provides a method of linking together other
relevant plans and studies. Overall, the evaluation should
focus on the decisions to be made and key issues to be
addressed by decision-makers, and should relate the results
of each alternative to the goals and objectives of the
project. The evaluation framework of the alternatives is
based on the project goals and objectives developed for the
study, and input from the Project Steering Committee. A
summary of this evaluation is given by Table 1:
Summary of Alternatives Evaluation.
As previously stated the evaluation was completed using
25 evaluation criteria which the PSC narrowed to twelve that
were the most relevant and resulted in the most differences.
Those criteria dropped because the analysis indicated minor
impacts or similar results among the alternatives include:
change in peak hour vehicular volumes for key intersections,
internal daily auto vehicle miles traveled, total daily VMT,
daily vehicle emissions, number of sites impacted by noise,
number of significant views impacted, transferability to
other Urban Centers, number of homes potentially relocated,
environmentally sensitive areas affected, accessibility to a
stop, roadway maintenance cost, annual operating cost per
passenger, and annual operating cost per vehicle-mile.
Explanation of the data in
Table 1 is as follows:
To have a consistent basis of comparison, the same study
area is used for all alternatives. For PRT Alternative C the
data encompasses the PRT network, Airport employee shuttle
service, and selected courtesy vans to the geographic areas
not served by PRT.
The project capital costs are transformed into annual
costs by applying a 0.08 factor, which is the capitalization
rate for a market rate, 30-year bond.
The daily ridership forecasts are converted to annual
riders by applying a 300 factor; this factor accounts for the
expected lower ridership on weekends and holidays.
Findings
The following findings have been derived from this
evaluation analysis:
PRT technology is not operational in any location
in the world; various private and public efforts over the
past 25-30 years have not been successful. There is
significant financial and technical risk in the
implementation of PRT technology.
The primary beneficiary of the system would be the
existing private courtesy van operators; those with a
PRT station would no longer have to provide van rides
to/from the airport.
The consolidated shuttle does not provide non-stop
travel between the airport and the place of business, which
is felt to be critical in the competitive airport parking,
hotel, and car rental businesses.
The "public" transportation problem in the
area does not justify a public $300-450 million (1996$)
capital expenditure and a $7.5-10 million (1996$) annual
operating cost for PRT Alternative A and C.
The cost per passenger for PRT Alternative C is within
the range of the current cost being expended by the private
shuttle operators on behalf of their patrons.
The PRT alternatives provide superior service compared
to the baseline and consolidated shuttle alternatives.
PRT Alternative C is more cost-effective than PRT
Alternative A.
Either PRT alternative would provide an excellent
circulation/distribution system for the stations on the
proposed RTA regional light rail system. (During the course
of the study, the RTA ballot passed which included funds for
innovative technology.)
The PRT alternatives provide the most positive benefits
including a 9% reduction in volume on the airport access
roadways.
The speed and convenience of trips between the airport
and the airport-related businesses is most improved with the
PRT alternatives.
Conclusions
These findings lead to the following
conclusions:
The private sector should have the main responsibility
for the capital cost and the annual operating cost if a PRT
system is implemented.
The public sector should contribute to the cost of the
PRT relative to the benefits received; dedication of
right-of-way is one contribution method.
Residential tax payers in the City of SeaTac receive
very few benefits and should have no financial liability or
risk.
The technology risks of PRT should be the responsibility
of the system supplier.
Although any PRT constructed in the City of SeaTac would
be largely a private sector venture, the City needs to
maintain a strong partnership role in order to assure quality
control and environmental compliance, as well as to ensure
that the locations served are coordinated with the City's
economic development and community plans for each area
Implementation Methods
Within the above defined evaluation results and
conclusions, a range of implementation methodologies were
evaluated. They included:
Conventional
Limited Turnkey
Turnkey
Super Turnkey
Four Phase Turnkey
Build/Operate/Transfer
Partnership Franchise
Full Franchise
Those methods toward the top of the list
(conventional, limited turnkey) are more commonly used today,
and involve a significant design effort by the procuring
agency. The owner is in effect acting as architect, engineer,
and general contractor, and subcontracting out individual
parts of the system, with specifically written
specifications. Contracts are generally awarded to the lowest
priced qualified bidder (meeting a minimum technical score),
although sometimes a "best value"
evaluation/selection criterion is used. The owner maintains
the maximum amount of control over the project under the
conventional procurement methodology. For methods toward the
bottom of the list, the supplier does much more of the design
work, taking more responsibility for the system integration
role and ultimately, the performance of the system. These
methods allow the most innovation by the suppliers, and allow
a wide range of technologies to be considered for a project.
They can be structured to provide at least partial private
financing of the project.
The conclusion of the alternatives evaluation was that
the Partnership Franchise method, which the City of SeaTac
would award, best responded to the implementation
requirements of a PRT system.
The general responsibilities of the franchisee and
public sector under a Partnership Franchise include:
Franchisee Responsibilities
- Provide input to the environmental clearance
- Complete the preliminary engineering and final
design
- Negotiate financial arrangements and station
siting/cost sharing with the area businesses
- Negotiate financial arrangements with the benefitted
public sectors
- Finance the implementation and operation of the PRT
system
- Construct the PRT system
- Operate the PRT system, including the interface with
the Port, RTA and local business
Public Sector Responsibilities
- Define the transit concept through preliminary design,
including locations of major stations
- Develop inputs from all stakeholders that would help
frame franchise Request for Proposal (RFP) requirements
- Develop a franchise RFP and design and conduct a
franchise selection process
- Award the franchise to a contractor
- Gain environmental clearance
- Provide a portion of the system costs
- Acquire any required right-of-way
- Clear the right-of-way of any utilities and/or
hazardous materials
If no system supplier(s) respond to the franchise
opportunity or if the selected franchisee fails to develop a
feasible financial plan, the PRT system would not be
built.
Locally Preferred Transportation Investment Strategy
(LPTIS)
PRT Alternative C is the recommended LPTIS, if a
private-public partnership using a Partnership
Franchise procurement, as defined above, is used. The
reasons for the PSC recommending this LPTIS include:
Superior service
The most cost effective PRT alternative
Positive environmental effects
Potential for significant private sector
participation
A complementary potential relationship with the proposed
RTA regional light rail system
A potential to serve as a demonstration project for
other major activity centers served by the RTA system
A reduction in vehicle volumes on the airport access
roadway
Consistency with adopted local and regional plans
Financial Plan
Table 2: PRT Alternative C Capital Costs (below)
identifies the capital elements of the recommend system. On
an annualized basis, this capital cost is estimated to be
$24,600,000. In addition to this capital cost, the estimated
annual operations and maintenance cost for Alternative C is
estimated at $7,464,000. Thus the total estimated annual cost
is $32,064,000. These costs are all in 1996 dollars and would
eventually be inflated to the year of initial
construction.
Table 2: PRT Alternative C Capital Costs
(1996$)
Item |
Cost Estimate |
Guideway
|
$114,700,000 |
Stations
|
$13,300,000 |
Electrical and Controls
|
$11,600,000 |
Vehicles
|
$36,600,000 |
Right-of-Way
|
$6,700,000 |
Maintenance Facility
|
$3,200,000 |
Contingency (24%)
|
$44,900,000 |
Sub-Total |
$231,000,000 |
Sales Tax (8.3%)
|
$19,200,000 |
Engineering/Construction
Mgmt/Admin.
|
$50,400,000 |
Start-up/Testing
|
$6,900,000 |
Total Project Capital
Cost |
$307,500,000 |
|---|
Capital costs for a new technology are difficult to
estimate. At the outset, unit costs are high because only a
small number of cars etc. are being produced and factory mass
production techniques cannot be used. Additionally, the
manufacturer's Research and Development (R&D) costs are
large in relation to the scale of the system being built.
Operating and maintenance costs are also difficult to
predict due to the lack of operation experience. Potential
franchisees should be encouraged to identify cooperative
means to mitigate and eliminate the noted risks as part of
their submissions.
Assuming a decision is made to proceed with the PRT
project with the City of SeaTac serving as a proving ground,
it seems likely that the City would allow the use of public
rights-of-way. Also, if the project were to proceed in
SeaTac, it would need Port support, and access into the
Airport Terminal facility on Port rights-of-way. These
in-kind contributions are not quantified in the Table 3:
Financial Breakdown for PRT Alternative C but could reduce
the private and/or public sector contributions.
Other local funds include potential contributions from
the new Regional Transit Authority whose funding base was
approved in the fall of 1996. The RTA has $30,000,000 in its
budget for innovative technology, and this entire sum has
been assumed available for SeaTac PRT. A formal commitment
has not yet been sought for these funds. Similarly, a small
amount of state funding might be possible, but has not yet
been sought.
At the federal level, funding availability is an
unknown; however, local U.S. Congressional representatives
have sponsored a City request for inclusion of the project in
the renewal of the Intermodal Surface Transportation
Efficiency Act ("ISTEA"). This renewal legislation
is before Congress and the City has asked for $123,000,000 or
40% of the project cost as an "earmarked"
amount.
Regardless of the scale of public funding that may be
available for the project, due to the startup nature of this
technology, the total project capital cost indicates that
significant private sector financial participation will be
essential as a prerequisite condition of the project. While
some of the private sector contribution would come from local
businesses providing stations within their buildings and
access into buildings, the primary share would come from the
vendor under the Partnership Franchise.
PRT in SeaTac is not feasible without a strong
private-public partnership. As is shown in the Table 3:
Financial Breakdown for PRT Alternative C the project would
have costs comparable to the current cost of the courtesy van
service.
Regardless of funding, the cost of the project must
still be reasonable when translated into "cost per
ride." The franchisee must be able to recover at least
all private sector annualized capital and operating costs
through normal operating revenues (fares, charges to system
subscribers). Although additional potential revenue sources
are yet to be identified by the potential franchisee, it is
likely that activities such as retail and concession
development at appropriate station locations will be pursued.
To determine if revenues generated from fares and user
charges would be sufficient to cover costs, a best and worst
case analysis was performed using varying amounts of private
sector funding up to 100%.
Table 3: Financial Breakdown for PRT Alternative
C
Item |
100% Private |
Modest Public Sector |
Maximum Public Sector |
Public Sector Assumptions
(%)
|
|
|
|
Federal
|
0%
|
20%
|
40% |
State funding
|
0%
|
1%
|
3% |
City funds
|
0%
|
0%
|
0% |
RTA funds
|
0%
|
10%
|
15% |
Port funds
|
0%
|
0%
|
2% |
Other public sector
|
0%
|
0%
|
1% |
TOTAL |
0% |
31% |
61% |
Private Sectors
Assumptions (%) |
100% |
69% |
39% |
Total Capital Cost (millions)
|
$307.5
|
$307.5
|
$307.5 |
Total Private Sector Capital Cost
(millions)
|
$307.5
|
$212.2
|
$119.9 |
Annualized pvt. sector capital costs
(millions)(8%)
|
$24.6
|
$16.9
|
$9.6 |
Annualized ops. costs (millions)
|
$7.5
|
$7.5
|
$7.5 |
Total annualized costs (millions)
|
$32.1
|
$24.4
|
$17.1 |
Annual PRT riders
|
7,230,000
|
7,230,000
|
7,230,000 |
Pvt. sector cost/rider
|
$4.44
|
$3.37
|
$2.37 |
Unlike conventional transit, PRT user fees could be
administered by not directly charging the riders. For
example, an off-airport parking facility could include the
cost of the PRT service in the daily fee just as they
presently do for the bus service. Hotels could mail
registered guests a machine readable PRT ticket (with
automatic expiration) as part of their confirmation. The
costs of PRT to that hotel's guests could be embedded in room
charges. For this reason, the individual rider's sensitivity
to higher fares could be a less important factor than with
conventional transit. A much more crucial factor on cost
recovery would be the user contracts that a successful
franchisee would negotiate with key businesses beneficiaries
of the system; eliminating the need for the businesses to
operate shuttle services is also a benefit.
Information provided by the existing businesses in the
area, indicate a current shuttle bus cost of between $1-$7
per ride. Given the current cost, even the scenario with no
public sector financing (100% private) appears financially
achievable. The detailed financing plan for the project will
pursue funding assumptions as identified under "maximum
public sector" participation in Table 3, above. The
assumptions shown under "modest public sector" and
"100% private" participation serve as alternative
funding possibilities.
Contractual arrangements for user fees in the $2-$5
range as shown in Table 3 would need to be developed for a
financially self-sufficient system. Setting the appropriate
fare or user charges and maximizing ridership are issues
which will need to be resolved by the successful franchisee
and participating agencies.
Implementation Steps
For the project to proceed, the next steps in the
process would include:
Update Regional Transportation Improvement Program
(TIP) - the TIP will be updated to list the next phase of
the PRT Project; the major work tasks of the next phase will
include design refinements, NEPA/SEPA documentation, and
public/private financial planning.
Franchise Implementation - the steps for awarding
a franchise encompass the following:
- advertise the availability and solicit letters on
vendor capability
- develop RFP and selection process
- prequalify a list of vendors
- solicit technical and financial proposals
- select a franchisee
- award the franchise
Public Agency Participation - negotiation will be
required to establish the level of participation, if any,
with public agencies. The candidate agencies include, but are
limited to: Port of Seattle, RTA, and Washington DOT.
Develop Financial Plan for Private Sector
Participation - the successful franchisee would negotiate
confidential agreements with private sector participants.
Gain Environmental Clearance - the City of SeaTac
would prepare a Draft and Final EIS and Record of Decision
under both state (SEPA) and federal (NEPA) environmental
regulations for the selected franchisee's technology.
Implement Project - the public sector
would implement the project improvements for which it would
be committed in the franchise agreement and the franchisee
would implement the project components for which it would
similarly be committed.
The total elapsed time from a "proceed"
decision to operation of the system is likely to be between
6-10 years. The selected franchisee will be encouraged to
reduce this implementation timeline. The tentative time table
required for these steps would be as follows:
Table 4: Expected Timeline
Activity |
Time requirements |
Create amd Issue Franchise RFP
|
4-6 months |
Select Franchisee
|
2-6 months* |
Franchise Agreement
|
6-12 months |
Negotiation with Public Agencies
|
4-6 months* |
Environmental Clearance
|
12-18 months |
Financial Plan
|
Concurrent with Envir. Clearance |
Engineering
|
9-15 months |
Right-of-Way
Acquisition/Agreements
|
6-18 months* |
Utility Relocation
|
4-8 months |
Construction and Testing
|
36-48 months |
Certification for Operation
|
4-6 months |
* Potential for partial completion in parallel with other
tasks
List of Technical Appendices
The following technical appendices were completed by
individual consultant team members and were used by the study
team to present technical data to the Project Steering
Committee.
1.0 - Introduction and Background
2.0 - Public Participation
3.0 - Alternatives Definition
4.0 - Ridership and System Performance
5.0 - Cost Estimates
6.0 - Environmental Implications
7.0 - Alternatives Evaluation
8.0 - Implementation Methods
9.0 - Funding Options and Financial Analysis
This Executive Summary was prepared for
the City of SeaTac, Washington, by BRW, Inc in Association
with: Arai/Jackson, Robert Bernstein, P.E., Berger/ABAM
Engineers, Inc., Exceltech, Hewitt-Isley, Hong West and
Associates, Inc.,Jakes Associates, Inc., JKH Mobility
Services, Inc., KJS Associates, Inc., Larson
Anthropological/Archaeological Services, Molyneaux
Associates, Pacific Rim Resources, Dr. Jerry Schneider. If
you have additional questions or requests about this project,
contact the City's Programs Manager,
Julie Rodwell , at 206-248-6106
Last modified: August 31, 1999