Global Warming/Climate Change Global Issues Network
Topic: Global Warming>Comment: Exploiting uncertainty
Comment Page: The lack of understanding of the nature
of computer modeling by the lay public and many policy makers.
Author: George Mobus
Creation Date: 9/5/04
Edit Date: 9/5/04
UNIVERSAL IDENTIFIER: GLOBALWARMINGTOPIC0-COMMENT0
Abstract
With reference to the science behind global warming, the nature and uses of computer models
to assess the contribution of anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gasses to the rise in
global mean temperature is very poorly understood by the general public. The fact that
modelling involves inherent uncertainties has been exploited by special interests.
Comment
Even though there is growing consensus among the various computer modeling approaches regarding
the likely scenarios that will obtain from various assumptions on the rate of CO2
emissions over then next century, certain politicians and special interest groups continue
to claim that there remains a high degree of uncertainty in these models. They conclude, therefore,
that it is unnecessary to take policy action until there is greater certainty.
This, of course, plays off of the general publics' lack of understanding of what uncertainty means
in these kinds of models. Scientests, themselves, create some of this misunderstanding simply
because they use cautious wording in describing their results. This is, of course, completely
proper when those results are being interpreted by other scientests who understand the nature of
the uncertainty being reported. Unfortunately, these same phrases can be used by the special
interests to bolster their claims that "...not enough is known at this point to take any
drastic action."
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Responses:
- Exploiting misunderstanding
of computer modelling - George Mobus, 9/5/2004