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Wednesday, May 8: Guest Lecture: Professor Nate Mantua "The paper, Natural Climate Insurance by Mantua and Francis, would be a goodlaunching point for me to discuss the tension between the desires for 'predictions' and 'certainty' versus the reality of natural systems and need to accept uncertainty and lack of predictability. I can use the climate change problem as one example (no action until we have scientific certainty) and how PNW resource managers (generally) initially reject climate information becuase of the lack of predictive skill." Please read the paper before coming to class. The presentation will take about half the time, leaving the other half for discussion.