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Confidence Limits by Inversion

 

Proper confidence regions can be computed for constrained models through the inversion of the chi-squared Wald or likelihood ratio statistics. The inversion of the Wald statistic is discussed in the context of the restricted least squares model by Rust and Burrus (1972) and O'Leary and Rust (1986). Discussion of the inversion of the likelihood ratio statistic in computing confidence regions is found in Cox (1974), Cook and Weisberg (1990), Meeker and Escobar (1995).

Inversion of the Likelihood Ratio Statistic. Partition a k-vector of parameters, tex2html_wrap_inline671 , and let tex2html_wrap_inline673 be a maximum likelihood estimate of tex2html_wrap_inline537 , where tex2html_wrap_inline677 is fixed to some value. A tex2html_wrap_inline679 confidence region for the parameters in tex2html_wrap_inline677 is defined by

displaymath659

Let

displaymath660

where tex2html_wrap_inline683 is a vector with a one in the i-th position and zeros elsewhere, and tex2html_wrap_inline541 is a function describing the constraints. The lower limit of the ( tex2html_wrap_inline689 ) interval for tex2html_wrap_inline691 is the value of tex2html_wrap_inline693 such that

  equation236

A modified secant method is used to find the value of tex2html_wrap_inline693 that satisfies (1). The upper limit is found by defining tex2html_wrap_inline697 as a maximum.

Inversion of the Wald statistic. A ( tex2html_wrap_inline689 ) joint Wald-type confidence region for tex2html_wrap_inline537 is the hyper-ellipsoid

displaymath661

where V is the covariance matrix of the parameters.

The lower limit of the confidence limit is the solution to

displaymath662

where tex2html_wrap_inline683 can be an arbitrary vector of constants and tex2html_wrap_inline707 , and where again we have assumed that the linear constraints and bounds have been folded in among nonlinear constraints. The upper limit is the maximum of this same function.

In this form, the function to be minimized is not convex and cannot be solved by the usual methods. However, the problem can be re-stated as a parametric nonlinear programming problem (Rust and Burrus, 1972). Let

displaymath663

The upper and lower limits of the tex2html_wrap_inline689 interval are the values of tex2html_wrap_inline693 such that

  equation259

A modified secant method is used to find the value of tex2html_wrap_inline693 that satisfies (2) (O'Leary and Rust, 1986). The upper limit is found by defining tex2html_wrap_inline715 as a maximum.


next up previous
Next: Bootstrap Up: Inference Previous: Inference

R. Schoenberg
Fri Sep 12 09:21:35 PDT 1997