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Summary

Constraints are a common feature of statistical models. CML is a computer program designed to produce estimates efficiently for these kinds of models. Methods of statistical inference for these models is more difficult, however. When confidence limits of all parameters n a model are more than tex2html_wrap_inline723 , standard methods will apply and the constraints will have no implications for inference. However, when this does not pertain, the constraint boundaries may affect the inference.

When the only parameter in the model within tex2html_wrap_inline725 of a constraint boundary is the parameter of interest, inversion of a mixture of chi-square statistics will be required. A correction for this case is incorporated into CML.

When one (or more) nuisance parameter is within tex2html_wrap_inline725 of a constraint boundary is correlated by more than about .7 with the parameter of interest, whether or not the parameter of interest is itself near a constraint boundary - the chi-square statistics have complex distributions. While methods exist for determining the properties of their distributions when the true values are on the boundaries, there is no known method for determining them when the true values are only near the boundaries.

It is clear from the Monte Carlo evidence that effects near boundaries overwhelm these effects on the boundary, rendering any standard inference in these circumstances quite hazardous.



R. Schoenberg
Fri Sep 12 09:21:35 PDT 1997