Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment
by R. J. LeVeque, K. Waagan, F. I. Gonzalez, D. Rim, and G. Lin Pure Appl. Geophys. 173 (2016) pp. 3671-3692.

Abstract. In order to perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) based on subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurance, or a probability distribution of such events that can be easily sampled. For nearfield events, the distribution of slip on the fault can have a significant effect on the resulting tsunami. We present an approach to defining a probability distribution based on subdividing the fault geometry into many subfaults and prescribing a desired covariance matrix relating slip on one subfault to slip on any other subfault. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of this matrix are then used to define a Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion for random slip patterns. This is similar to a spectral representation of random slip based on Fourier series but conforms to a general fault geometry. We show that only a few terms in this series are needed to represent the features of the slip distribution that are most important in tsunami generation, first with a simple one-dimensional example where slip varies only in the down-dip direction and then on a portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

Keywords. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, seismic sources, Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion, subduction zone earthquakes

Journal article: [doi:10.1007/s00024-016-1357-1] ... Open access view-only version

Accepted manuscript: KLslip.pdf

Earlier preprint (before substantial revisions):


bibtex entry:

  author="R. J. LeVeque and K. Waagan and F. I. Gonzalez and D. Rim and G.  Lin",
  title="Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami
    Hazard Assessment",
  journal = "Pure Appl. Geophys.",

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