Publications in preparation or in review
Hanan EJ, Kennedy MC, Ren J, Johnson MC, Smith AMS (in review May 2021). Missing climate feedbacks in fire models: limitations and uncertainties in fuel loadings and the role of decomposition in fine fuel succession. Journal of Advances Modeling Earth Systems
Johnson MC, Kennedy MC, Harrison SC, Alvarado E, Desautel C, Holford J, Logue S. (in review after revision). Post wildfire salvage logging effect on woody fuel loadings and stand structure in a severely burned mixed-conifer forest in northeastern Washington state. Canadian Journal of Forest Research
Johnson MC, Kennedy MC, Harrison SC. (in review Dec 2020). Understanding post-wildfire woody fuel dynamics following stand replacing wildfires. Invited Book Chapter for: Forest as Complex Social and Ecological Systems: A Festschrift for Chadwick D. Oliver
Peer-reviewed publicationsKennedy MC, Bart R, Tague CL, Chaote J. (2021). Does hot and dry equal more wildfire? Contrasting short and long-term climate effects on fire in the Sierra Nevada, CA. Ecosphere. 12(7): e03657. doi:10.1002/ecs2.3657
Hanan E, Ren J, Tague C, Kolden C, Abatzoglou J, Bart R, Kennedy MC, Liu M, Adam J. (2021). How climate change and fire exclusion drive wildfire regimes at actionable scales. Environmental Research Letters. 16: 024051. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd78e
Burke W, Tague C, Kennedy MC, Moritz M. (2021). Understanding How Fuel Treatments Interact With Climate and Biophysical Setting to Affect Fire, Water, and Forest Health: A Process-Based Modeling Approach. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2020.591162
Kennedy MC, Johnson MC, Harrison SC. (2021). Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) predictions of woody fuel succession and fire behavior are sensitive to fuel dynamics parameters. Forest Science. 67(1): 30-42. doi: 10.1093/forsci/fxaa036
Shugar DH, Burr A, Haritashya UK, Kargel JS, Watson CS, Kennedy MC, Bevington AR, Betts RA, Harrison S, Strattman K. (accepted June 2020). Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990. Nature Climate Change. doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4
Kennedy MC, Prichard SJ, McKenzie D, French NHF. (2020). Quantifying how sources of uncertainty in combustible biomass propagate to prediction of wildland fire emissions.
Johnson MC, Kennedy MC, Harrison SC, Churchill D, Pass J, Fischer PW. (2020). Effects of post-fire management on dead woody fuel dynamics and stand structure in a severely burned mixed-conifer forest, in northeastern Washington State, USA. Forest Ecology and Management. 470-471: 118190. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118190
Prichard SJ, Povak NA, Kennedy MC, Peterson DW. (2020). Fuel treatment effectiveness in the context of landform, vegetation and large, wind-driven wildfires. Ecological Applications. doi: 10.1002/eap.2104
Bart R, Kennedy MC, Tague CL, McKenzie D. (2020). Integrating fire effects on vegetation carbon cycling within an ecohydrologic model. Ecological Modeling. 416:108880.
Prichard SJ, Kennedy MC, Andreu AG, Eagle PC, French NH, Billmire, M. (2019). Next-generation biomass mapping for regional emissions and carbon inventories: incorporating uncertainty in wildland fuel characterization. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 124: 3699-3716. doi: 10.1029/2019JG005083
Newman EA, Kennedy MC, Falk DA, McKenzie D. (2019). Scaling and complexity in landscape ecology. Frontiers Ecology and Evolution. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00293
Johnson MC, Kennedy MC, Harrison S. (2019). Fuel treatments change forest structure and spatial patterns of fire severity, Arizona, U.S.A. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 49(11): 1357-1370
Kennedy MC, Johnson MC, Fallon K, Mayer D. (2019). How big is enough? Vegetation structure impacts effective fuel treatment width and forest resiliency. Ecosphere. 10(2). doi: 10.1002/ecs2.2573
Kennedy MC. (2019). Experimental design principles to choose the number of Monte Carlo replicates for stochastic ecological models. Ecological Modeling. 394: 11-17
Johnson MC, Kennedy MC. (2019). Altered vegetation structure from mechanical thinning treatments changed wildfire behaviour in the wildland-urban interface on the 2011 Wallow Fire, Arizona, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 28: 216-229
Anderson S, Bart R, Kennedy MC, MacDonald AJ, Moritz MS, Plantinga AJ, Tague CL, Wibbenmeyer M. (2018). The dangers of disaster-driven responses to climate change. Nature Climate Change, June 11
Prichard SJ, Kennedy MC, Wright CS, Cronan JB, and Ottmar RD. (2017). Predicting forest floor and woody fuel consumption from prescribed burns in southern and western pine ecosystems of the United States. Forest Ecology and Management. 405: 328-338
Kennedy MC, McKenzie DM, Tague CL, Duggar A. (2017). Balancing uncertainty and complexity to incorporate fire in an eco-hydrological model. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 706-718
Kennedy MC, Prichard SJ. (2017). Choose your neighborhood wisely: implications of subsampling and autocorrelation structure in simultaneous autoregression models for landscape ecology. Landscape Ecology. 32(5): 945-952
Kennedy MC, McKenzie DM. (2017). Model evaluation identifies uncertainties and tradeoffs in complexity when fire is integrated with hydro-ecological projections. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support. AGU Monograph Series.
Prichard SJ, Karau EC, Ottmar RD, Kennedy MC, Cronan JB, Wright CS, Keane RE. (2014). Evaluation of the CONSUME and FOFEM fuel consumption models in pine and mixed hardwood forests of the Eastern United States. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 44: 784-795.
Prichard SJ, Kennedy MC. (2014). Fuel treatments and landform modify landscape patterns of burn severity in an extreme fire event. Ecological Applications.24(3):571:590. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-0343.1
Kennedy MC, Johnson MC. (2014). Fuel treatment prescriptions alter spatial patterns of fire severity around the wildland–urban interface during the Wallow Fire, Arizona, USA. Forest Ecology and Management. 318: 122-132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2014.01.014
Steel EA, Kennedy MC, Cunningham PG, Stanovick JS. (2013). Applied statistics in ecology: common pitfalls and simple solutions. Ecosphere. 4(9):115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00160.1
Hummel S, Kennedy MC, Steel AS. (2013). Assessing forest vegetation and fire simulation model performance after the Cold Springs wildfire, Washington USA. Forest Ecology and Management. 287: 40-52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.08.031
Prichard SJ, Kennedy MC (2012). Fuel treatment effects on tree mortality following wildfire in dry mixed conifer forests, Washington State, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 21: 1004-1013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11121
McKenzie D, Kennedy MC. (2012). Power laws reveal phase transitions in landscape controls of fire regimes. Nature Communications 3:726. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1731
Kennedy MC, Ford ED. (2011). Using multi-criteria analysis of simulation models to understand complex biological systems. BioScience. 61(12): 994-1004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.12.9
Ford ED, Kennedy MC. (2011). Assessment of uncertainty in functional-structural plant models. Annals of Botany. 108(6):1043-1053. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcr110
Johnson MC, Kennedy MC, Peterson DL. (2011). Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the western United States: testing the principles of a fire-safe forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 41: 1018-1030. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/X11-032
Kennedy MC, McKenzie D. (2010). Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes. Landscape Ecology 25:1561-1573. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-010-9527-5
McKenzie D, Kennedy MC. (2010) Scaling laws and complexity in fire regimes. Chapter 2 in McKenzie D, Miller C, Falk DA eds. The Landscape Ecology of Fire. Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Springer. In press
Kennedy MC. (2010). Functional-structural models optimize the placement of foliage units for multiple whole-canopy functions. Ecological Research. 25(4):723-732. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11284-009-0658-6
Kennedy MC, Ford ED, Hinckley TM. (2010) Defining how aging Pseudotsuga and Abies compensate for multiple stresses through multi-criteria assessment of a functional-structural model. Tree Physiology. 30(1):3-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpp096
Kennedy MC, Ford ED. (2009). Two-criteria model assessment shows that foliage maintenance in old-growth Pseudotsuga menziesii requires both delayed and sequential reiteration. Trees Structure and Function. 23(6):1173-1187. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00468-009-0357-5
Kennedy MC, Ford ED, Singleton P, Finney M, Agee JK. (2008) Informed multi-objective decision-making in environmental management using Pareto optimality. Journal of Applied Ecology. 45(1):181. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01367.x
Lehmkuhl J, Kennedy M, Ford ED, Singleton PH, Gaines WL, Lind RL. (2007). Seeing the forest for the fuel: Integrating ecological values and fuels management. Forest Ecology and Management. 246: 73-80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.03.071
Ishii HT, Ford ED, Kennedy MC. (2007). Physiological and ecological implications of adaptive reiteration as a mechanism for crown maintenance and longevity. Tree Physiology. 27(3):455–462. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/treephys/27.3.455
Kennedy MC, Ford ED, Ishii H. (2004). Model analysis of the importance of reiteration for branch longevity in Pseudotsuga menziesii compared with Abies grandis. Canadian Journal of Botany. 82: 892-909. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/b04-075
Thesis and Dissertation (with a link to each full-length pdf)Kennedy MC. (2002). A geometric simulation model of foliage regeneration in Abies grandis and Pseudotsuga menziesii. Master of Science Thesis. University of Washington. Seattle, WA
Kennedy MC. (2008). Multi-objective Optimization for Ecological Model Assessment and Theory Development. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Washington. Seattle, WA.