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POLS 410 LECTURE 14
"THE POLITICS OF AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY"
I. The Current Situation
*FOOD: 1 billion chronically undernourished 41,000 people, mostly
children, die of starvation daily
Avg. daily food consumption in LDC's = abt. 1/2 U.S.
Inequity & waste: can of diet soda:
2,400 cals of energy to produce for 1 cal of nutrition (= to 7,000
cals food)
*POP: over 5 billion
It took all of history until 1830 to reach 1 billion.
Pop. growth rate = 2.7%; affluent countries @ 1%
Parts of Africa over 3%
Thomas Malthus: exponential pop growth will overwhelm the land
>> starvation & pop. decline.
--didn't take account of technological innovations,
e.g., mechanized farming, chemical fertilizer, etc.
Technological improvements in agriculture unlikely to keep up with
pop. growth.
Availability: production vs. distribution
Ppl in affluent countries consume twice the minimum protein required
& ppl in LDC's often get 1/2.
1. Affluent get protein from animals; poor get their's from plant
sources (incomplete)
II. Production and Markets
A. Until 1970's, domestic agricultural policies were not considered
relevant to IR.
1. Trade limited in quantity & mostly to delicacies.
B. Prior to world market, ppl were at the mercy of domestic production.
1. Pops. were trimmed by starvation & malnutrition
2. Hundreds, thousands of major famines in history.
C. Major commodities
1. Wheat = dietary staple in temperate regions;
= most impt. commodity intl. agricultural trade.
U.S. accounts for 40% of all exports.
2. Rice = staple for 1/2 of world's pop. living in tropics;
China & India produce over 1/2 world's rice;
U.S. is not the major producer, but is #1 exporter.
3. Corn: primarily used for feed, eaten in Latin Am. US produces 1/2
world's corn.
D. U.S. dominates intl agric. trade (hegemon)
20% of all U.S. export earnings come from agric.
1980's: Soviet Union & China absorbed 1/4 US exports.
Heavy farm subsidies to keep prices higher; farmers paid to hold
land out of production.
Some surplus disposed thru 1954 Food for Peace program, wh. provides
food to pol'ly acceptable countries.
E. Dramatic shifts in 1970's
1. Combinatn of bad harvests, rising energy prices, & increased demand
>> drastic decline in world carry-over stocks
2. Entry of Soviet Union into world market
a. Expansion of agric. in 1960's was mostly in Siberia, whose
marginal land produced widely fluctuating harvests.
b. US became major supplier until
Carter imposed grain embargo after Afghanistan invasion.
3. OPEC countries all inc'd food imports w/ higher oil prices.
E. Positive aspects of world food market
1. Frees countries from needing food self-suffiency, making labor
available for industrial production.
2. Permits food exporters like US to use their resources fully.
3. Countries w/ shortages due to bad weather can turn to the world
market for relief.
F. Negative aspects
1. Seduces LDC leaders away from agric. self-sufficiency, posing
serious probs. should reasonably priced food become available
down the road.
2. Scarce hard currency is needed to buy imports.
3. Greater chance of global famine triggered by simultaneous crop
failures.
4. LDC's at greatest risk: weather-related shortages
cd. lead to higher food prices & nationalistic food policies by exporters.
III. Food-energy connection
A. Throughout most of history, food production took place mostly w/i
constraints of solar energy.
B. Agric. has undergone its own industrial revolution:
Fossil fuel-based fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, machinery
all boost production.
C. World food market subject to boom & bust cycles very similar to those
in the oil industry (follows them)
1960's: superabundance of food
Green Revolution begun, went thr 70's:
new, more prolific crop strains & fertilizers
Yes, more production, but more vulnerable & less sustainable.
1970's: major famines (Bangledesh) &
oil shocks >>
>> "world food crisis"
1974 UN World Food Conference established World Food Council & Intl
Fundfor Agricultural Devt., wh. is heavily supported by OPEC.
1980's: oil glut & another pd. of world food surplus.
D. Major difference bet food & energy markets:
Oil mkt is quasi-monopolistic; food is relatively free.
E. Food mkt is sort of mirror image of oil mkt
1. Exporters of food are importers of oil & vice versa.
2. 2 Ironies
a. Affluent countries use the products of their energy-intensive
agricultural tech. to gain export revenue w/ which to pay for
the imported oil that is essential to their farming.
b. Recent gains in food production have taken place in the
affluent countries, where pop. growth has plateaued
>> main prob. is distribution, not supply.
III. FAO
A. What is it?
Largest of specialized UN agencies
B. What's wrong with it?
1. Approach to dev't
a. Promotes export-led growth in agric.
>> vulnerability bec. of unstable commodity mkts
-- undermines local self-sufficiency
-- harms peasants & small farmers
b. High-tech, capital-intensive
>> contracts go to companies in North
>> research mostly done in North
>> rural unemploymt & migratn to urban areas
-- overly promotes pesticide use
2. Bureaucratic probs.
a. Efficiency judged by how fast money is spent
>> little time to consider appropriate tech. or involve
sociologists & anthropologists, much less local
communities
b. Defines itself as an inter-governmental org.
>> no arena for NGO participation,
esp. intl. peasants union
c. Captured by agri-business, esp. chemical companies
d. Inefficiency
e.g., system of special FAO ambassadors duplicates UN
functions, costs $22 million/year.
3. Director-General Edouard Saouma
a. Autocratic, paranoid management style
IV. Green Revolution
FAO-led, 1960's-70's, focused in India
V. The Global Livestock Economy
Biologist: "An alien ecologist observing earth might conclude that
cattle are the dominant animal species in our biosphere"
Domesticated animals now outnumber humans 3 to 1;
mostly for meat (for the affluent, esp. US).
What's wrong w/ heavy meat consumption?
A. Grain consumption
1. To raise meat output, new intensive rearing technologies were
adopted relying on grains & legumes to feed animals. Virtually
all pigs & poultry in industrial countries are raised in
gigantic indoor feeding facilities.
2. In US, animals account for 70% of domestic grain consumption
(compare to 2% for India & sub-Saharan Africa)
B. Very energy & water intensive
1. 30,000 kcals. fossil fuel energy burned to produce a kg. of
pork in US (approx. 4 liters gasoline).
2. The water used to supply a typical American w/ meat, milk &
eggs each day matches that person's daily water use at home,
about 380 liters.
C. Envt'lly disastrous
1. Huge quantities of waste, much of which ends up in rivers, bays
& groundwater.
a. In Netherlands, ammonia from livestock is the single
largest source of acid deposition/rain.
2. Tropical deforestation, esp. in Latin America, Amazon
a. Trop. deforestatn = primary cause of loss of biodiversity
3. Desertification from overgrazing.
4. Lack of plant cover >> soil salinization.
5. Methane: 80 million tons from belches & flatulence (burps & farts)
6. Price of meat might triple if full envt'l costs were incorporated.