From: "Edward S. Sarachik" <sarachik@atmos.washington.edu><br>
Date: Wed, 27 Nov 2002 14:34:24 -0800<br>
Subject: PDV Workshop<br>
<p>
Dear Colleague:
<p>
   We are writing to invite you to participate in a Workshop on
Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV). The need for this workshop grew out
of a number of different considerations:
<p>
* The need for a clarification of the modes of PDV and the need
for a Nowcast of  PDV in order to more effectively use ENSO forecasts
for applications, especially on the west coast of the US;
<p>
* The need to understand the origin and mechanisms of PDV in order
to accomplish the above
<p>
* The need to understand the role of Pacific Decadal Variability
in the climate response to anthropogenic forcings as part of the
emerging Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI).
<p>
* The need for additional focus on the phenomenon of decadal
variability in and over the Pacific sector in support of the component
D4: Pacific and Indian Ocean Decadal Variability of International CLIVAR
<p>
   While we are aware of the PBECS program in the Pacific, we
feel that more diagnostics and modeling is needed in support of PBECS to
guide the observations and possibly propose new observations in order to
unravel the mysteries of PDV. We note that the U.S. CLIVAR Scientific
Steering Committee has endorsed this Workshop and has encouraged the
community to self-organize in order to address the problems of PDV.
<p>
   The Workshop will produce a Prospectus for a PDV Program
that addresses the problems of:
<p>
1. The mechanisms for PDV
<p>
2. The needs of the Pacific West Coast Regions for decadal climate
information, especially fisheries and hydrology
<p>
3. Assessing whether a Nowcast of PDV is possible and if so, how to
go about it.
<p>
4. Assessing the possibilities of predictions of PDV
<p>
5. Assessing the role of PDV in longer term climate change
<p>
   We wish to concentrate on what needs to be done, so the
workshop will only consist of purposeful discussion of the Prospectus-we
will not schedule any talks. The prospectus will then form the basis for
a coordinated sequence of proposals to the agencies. Since the emphasis
will be on diagnostics and modeling, the cost of the proposed program on
PDV will be relatively modest. Please come to the meeting with ideas
about what needs to be done, in a diagnostics and modeling context, to
address the 5 areas listed above.
<p>
   We have gotten the agreements of a number of agencies to
support travel to the meeting which will be held on February 25-26 (two
FULL days) in Alexandria, Virginia, right outside DC and only two metro
stops from National Airport. The U.S. CLIVAR Office (especially David
Legler) has generously agreed to organize the meeting logistics-we will
contact you with organizational and travel details if you accept this
invitation. We are working on putting together a Steering Committee that
will attend the meeting and stay an extra day to actually write the
Prospectus. 
<p>
   We hope you can attend and we hope you will be enthusiastic
about participating in this workshop, in the series of proposed
activities identified at the Workshop , and to the program that evolves
from these activities. 
<p>
   In order to aid your thinking, we have attached two recent
reviews of PDV by the undersigned. If you wish to distribute materials
to the participants in the Workshop in anticipation of the Workshop
discussions, e-mail them to us and we will send them out. Before the
Workshop, we will distribute a strawman Prospectus. Any ideas for
program elements for the strawman should be sent to us as soon as
possible. 
<p>
Sincerely,
<p>
Nate Mantua and Ed Sarachik