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cadolph at uw dot edu

I’m a member of the faculty at the University of Washington, Seattle, where I serve as professor of political science, adjunct professor of statistics, and associate director of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences.

COVID-19 State Policy Project

My recent research focuses on comparing policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across the US states. I’m the faculty lead for a team of political science and public health researchers collecting and analyzing data on state-level social distancing policies. Data reflecting policies issued from March 2020 through July 2021 are available at covid19statepolicy.org. See also our articles on partisan patterns in the adoption of social distancing mandates, the adoption of mask mandates, and the easing of social distancing requirements. Our data also inform IHME’s COVID-19 forecasting and modeling efforts.

Substantive Interests

My political economy and comparative politics research explores the ways political institutions and interests jointly determine the public policies that shape our lives, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, health policy, and trade policy. I am particularly interested in the influence of career incentives and partisanship on elite behavior and policy making.

Methodological interests

I specialize in the visual display of scientific information, particularly the illustration of substantive findings from statistical models. I’m also interested in statistical inference using data whose logical bounds enable or improve estimation, as in the study of political rank; compositional data like careers, budgets, and trade portfolios; and ecological inference.

Other activities

I serve as an expert witness on the use of statistical methods to resolve contested elections. I also consult on matters relating to statistical methodology and data visualization.


15-jun-24.  New publication:
“High-Resolution Mapping of Essential Maternal and Child Health Service Coverage in Nigeria: A Machine Learning Approach” has been published in BMJ Open, with Yoshito Kawakatsu (UW Global Health) as lead author.

1-jun-24.  Fall course offered: Maximum Likelihood Methods for the Social Sciences is intended for graduate students seeking a deeper understanding of statistical inference, tools for analyzing discrete outcomes, and methods for general purpose model fitting.

1-mar-24.  Spring course offered: Time Series and Panel Data for the Social Sciences is intended for graduate students.

University of Washington link

CSSS Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences link

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