Publications, Completed Papers, and Work-in-Progress, by Topic Area

• "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination" (10/2009) Joint Byron Kwok Ping Tsang

• "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?" (updated 05/2009) Joint with Byron Kwok Ping Tsang

• "Does Monetary Policy Drive Exchange Rates? The Role of Expectations" (work-in-progress) Joint with Byron Kwok Ping Tsang and Wen Jen Tsay

• "The Role of Commodity Price Aggregates for Monetary Policy" (work-in-progress) Joint with Stephen J. Turnovksy

• "Risk and Returns in Exchange Rates: Evidence from Commodity Currencies" (2009) Joint with Chang-Jin Kim and SeongTae Kim

• "Commodity Currencies and Volatility Forecasts" Joint with Philip Sylling (work-in-progress)

• "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?" (updated 06/2009) Joint with Kenneth Rogoff and Barbara Rossi. Quarterly Journal of Economics (forthcoming).

  - See also NBER Working Paper w13901, March 2008; Nov 2008 version.

  - Data; Codes (updated 06/2008)

  - NBER Digest (07/2008); VOX writeup (09/2008); WSJ reference: "Bad Crop: Commodity Currencies" (11/2008)

• "Are Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?" (2006) Joint with Kenneth Rogoff

• "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Commodity Economies" (2004) 

• "Commodity Currencies" (2003) Joint with Kenneth Rogoff.  Journal of International Economics, Vol.60, No. 1, 133-6

• "Resolving the PPP Puzzle (through a Generalized ARFIMA Real Exchange Rate Process with Markov-Switching Fractional Differencing Parameters)" (work-in-progress) Joint with Wen-Jen Tsay

• "The Search for Stationarity in Real Exchange Rates: An Unobserved Component Regime-Switching Approach" (2007) Joint with Bruce Wang

• "Monetary Policy Design under Imperfect Knowledge: An Open Economy Analysis" (2009) Joint with Pisut Kulthanavit

• "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan" (2008) Joint with Pisut Kulthanavit, Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 13, Issue 4, p405.

• "Growth and Inequality in a Small Open Economy" (2008; updated 8/2009) Joint with Stephen Turnovsky

• "Is Debt Relief Good for Health?" Joint with Douglas Almond (work-in-progress)

• "Local Labor Markets and Increasing Returns to Scale: How Strong is the Evidence?" (2001) Joint with Noah Weisberger.

• "Accounting for Differences in Economic Growth" (1996) Joint with Bosworth, B, S. Collins, and Y. Chen, in Structural Adjustment and Economic Reform: East Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe, ed. A. Kohsaka and K. Ohno.

• "Ethnicity, Inter-Generational Ties, and the Savings-Retirement Decision" (work-in-progress)

• "Is Bigger Always Better? Optimal Foreign Reserve Management in Emerging Economies" (2006) Joint with Sebastian Fossati

• "Protection on Sale?  The Political Economy of Beef and Bananas"