PHIL 466A. Pop Quiz

For each of the following binary choices, there are three possibilities: If you prefer the first alternative to the second, circle only its letter (e.g., in 1-1 below you would circle only "A"); if you prefer the second alternative to the first, circle only its letter (e.g., in 1-1 below, you would circle only "B"); if you are indifferent between the two alternatives, circle both letters (e.g., in 1-1 below, you would circle both "A" and "B").

1-1. Choose between Surgery or Radiation Therapy:

A. Surgery: Of 100 people having surgery 90 live through the post-operative period, 68 are alive at the end of the first year and 34 are alive at the end of five years.

B. Radiation Therapy: Of 100 people having radiation therapy all live through the treatment, 77 are alive at the end of one year and 22 are alive at the end of five years.

2. Suppose you are compelled to make the following series of two choices, (i) and (ii):

(i) Choose between:

A. a sure gain of \$240

B. 25% chance to gain \$1000 and 75% chance to gain nothing

(ii) Choose between

C. a sure loss of \$750

D. 75% chance to lose \$1000 and 25% chance to lose nothing

3. Assume yourself richer by \$300 than you are today. You have to choose between:

A. a sure gain of \$100

B. 50% chance to gain \$200 and 50% chance to gain nothing

4. Assume yourself richer by \$500 than you are today. You have to choose between:

A. a sure loss of \$100

B. 50% chance to lose nothing and 50% chance to lose \$200.

7. Consider the following two lotteries, described by the percentage of marbles of different colors in each box and the amount of money you win or lose depending on the color of a randomly drawn marble. Which lottery do you prefer?

A. 90% white 6% red 1% green 1% blue 2% yellow

\$0 win \$45 win \$30 lose \$15 lose \$15

B. 90% white 6% red 1% green 1% blue 2% yellow

\$0 win \$45 win \$45 lose \$10 lose \$15

8. Same instructions as 7. Which lottery do you prefer?

A. 90% white 6% red 1% green 3% yellow

\$0 win \$45 win \$30 lose \$15

B. 90% white 7% red 1% green 2% yellow

\$0 win \$45 lose \$10 lose \$15

9. Which of the following options do you prefer?

A. a sure gain of \$30

B. 80% chance to win \$45 and 20% chance to win nothing

10. Which of the following options do you prefer?

C. 25% chance to win \$30 and 75% chance to win nothing.

D. 20% chance to win \$45 and 80% chance to win nothing.

11. Consider the following two stage game. In the first stage, there is a 75% chance to end the game without winning anything, and a 25% chance to move into the second stage. If you reach the second stage, you have a choice between:

E. a sure win of \$30

F. 80% chance to win \$45 and 20% chance to win nothing.

1-2. Choose between Surgery or Radiation Therapy:

A. Surgery: Of 100 people having surgery 10 die during the surgery or the post-operative period, 32 die by the end of the first year and 66 die by the end of five years.

B. Radiation Therapy: Of 100 people having radiation therapy, none die during treatment, 23 die by the end of one year and 78 die by the end of five years.