Thursday, June 3, 1999

Thursday, June 3, 1999

Registration from 8:30 am to 9:30 am

Morning Session 9:30 am to 12:30 pm

Population and the Marine Environment in the North Pacific

Analysis of demographic trends in the region.

National population tendencies and demographic factors that have taken on increased social, economic, international and political significance.

How population growth and per capita incomes affect the long-term sustainability and carrying capacity of aquatic environments.

Likely environmental effects of more intensive coastal resource use resulting from growing population pressures and migrations to seashore areas.

The North Pacific Rim countries are entering a new century, which by all counts will be the urban century. Globally, city populations are expected to triple; in developing economies, increasing urbanization of the total population is also expected to triple. With the exception of trends such as global warming, linkages between population, marine environmental degradation, and management of marine resources tend to be regional and local rather than global in expression. In the marine environment, human activities (fisheries, mangrove or upland forest cutting, agricultural activity, production of energy) have transboundary impacts–activities in one area contribute to environmental problems in another. Not every problem can be a priority for every country–there are substantial differences among North Pacific countries in their population growth, economic development, and marine environmental problems.

Opening Address

Mr. Carl Haub

Director, Population Reference Bureau, Washington DC, USA

Population Trends in the North Pacific Rim Countries and Projections of Future Demographic Transitions
Prof. Alexander P. Latkin

Director, International Institute of Economic Trends and Forecasting, University of Vladivostok, Russian Federation

Negative Impacts of Socioeconomic Reforms on Coastal Population and Russian Far East Economic Development

and

Ms. Svetlyana V. Kuzmina

University of Fisheries, Vladivostok, Russian Federation

Present Trends and Expected Changes in Population Migrations of the Russian Far East
Mr. Victor Loksha

Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development Division, The World Bank, USA

Human Activities and Their Transboundary Environmental Implications in the Asia Pacific Countries
Prof. Lu Jiehua

Institute of Demography, Beijing University, People's Republic of China

Populations Dynamics and Their Impacts on Marine Resources Among the Coastal Regions of the People's Republic of China

Dr. Fernando Saavedra

The National Population Council, Mexico
Population Trends in Mexico and Their Impacts on Coastal Environment

Afternoon Session 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm

Human Impacts on the Aquatic Resources of the Region

Analysis of the relationship between population growth and increasing pressures on marine environment in the North Pacific Rim.

The transboundary implications of marine and coastal resource use in the North Pacific.

Development of aquaculture in the Asia/Pacific region and any limits of growth.

Interrelationships among wild stock fisheries, water, and land, which are necessary for continuing expansion of aquaculture.

Aquaculture's impact on local climate change through mangrove harvests, pollution increases, and soil degradation.

The link between growing population and sustainability of ocean and coastal resources is insufficiently known. Understanding this link is crucial in regard to fisheries, aquaculture, ports and marine transportation, offshore oil and gas exploitation, international trade, and marine tourism. Population pressures are expressed in growing demand for such commodities as food of aquatic origin, fresh water and coastal space.
Prof. Liu Rongzi

China Institute for Marine Development Strategy, the State Oceanic Administration, Beijing, People's Republic of China
China Population, Marine Resources and Environment: Development Strategy for the XXI Century
Academician Viatcheslav K. Zilanov

International Academy of Ecological Sciences and Safety of Life at Sea, Moscow, Russian Federation
Impacts of Population, Markets and Socio-Economic Reforms on Marine Living Resources of the Russian Far East
Dr. Ruben Lara Lara

Scientific Research and Higher Education center in Ensenada (CICESE), Scientific Advisory Committee, Mexico
Marine and Coastal Environment in Mexico: An Impact of Global Change
Mrs. Anne Platt McGinn

World Watch Institute, Washington, DC, USA
Promoting Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture–The North Pacific Perspective
Prof. Yoshiaki Matsuda

Faculty of Fisheries, Kagoshima University, Japan
Coping with Marine Resource Scarcities: Japanese Perspective
Prof. Sungchul C. Bai

Department of Aquaculture, Pukyong National University, Pusan, Korea
Present Status and Future Prospects of the World Aquaculture:

Korean Perspective

Dinner at 7:00 pm in the Conference Facility

Keynote Speaker
Prof. Parzival Copes

Simon Fraser University, BC, Canada
The Global Change in the North Pacific: How it Affects our Lives and International Cooperation Between Coastal States

Friday, June 4, 1999

Morning Session 9:30 am to 12:30 pm

Markets and International Sea Trade

in the North Pacific Rim

Major trends in international trade of seafood and other marine products of developing and transition economies of the region.

Marine-resource users and exporters' responses to growing demographic pressures; international market demand; and social, economic, cultural, technological and other incentives to intensify the use of marine and fresh water resources.

Trade regulations or other international restrictions and their positive or negative effects on ocean and coastal resource use and on the marine environment.

Trade practices, such as inflow of foreign capital and technology, harvesting practices, and value-added strategies and their positive or negative effects on resource use and the aquatic environment.

Governmental interventions in regard to international trade of North Pacific economies and allocation of resources for use by foreign companies.

Rapid growth of trade in the North Pacific and the degradation of its marine environment, together with discussion in international fora such as the World Trade Organization, have highlighted the linkages between the region's seafood and other marine commodity trade and the marine environment. Trade policy is a relatively inefficient way of achieving environmental objectives, but is one of the few peaceful methods of influencing the intensity of marine resource use. Similarly, environmental policies often have implications for international trade. Here we seek a clear picture of future development in this heavily trade- dependent region. We examine interactions between trade and marine environment, how these interactions are likely to develop over time, and what consequences they may have for growth, policy making, and the quality of life in the developing and transition economies of this region. We focus on interrelationships between markets and international trade and the state of natural resources of the sea and coastal areas.

Ms. Yang Ting

China Ocean Shipping Inc., COSCO Group, Beijing, People's Republic of China
International Trade and Markets of Marine Products, The People's Republic of China's Perspective
Dr. Alexander Vyleghanin

RES LEX Law Consulting Firm, Moscow, Russian Federation
International Legal Aspects of the Russian Far East Seafood Trade with North Pacific Rim Countries
Dr. Roberto Enriquez

School of Economy of the Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Ensenada, Mexico
Impacts of NAFTA and International Market Demand on Mexican Coastal and Ocean Resources
Dr. Seong K. Park

Korean Maritime Institute, Pusan, Korea
North Pacific Markets for Marine and Coastal Resources: Present Status and Perspectives for the Future
Prof. David S. Liao

Institute of Fisheries Economics, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan
Human Impacts, Trade Policies and Sustainability of

Fisheries Resource: Taiwan's Experience
Mr. Shane Day

Evans School of Public Affairs & Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, WA
Market Implications of the Rise of World Aquaculture Production: The Case of Salmon

Afternoon Session 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm

Policy Recommendations

Round Table Discussion

The concluding session of the conference is devoted to a round table discussion where participants will present recommendations on policy measures that could be adopted on an economy or regional basis to cope with socioeconomic impacts of global change, to prevent deterioration of the marine environment, and to secure sustainable development of marine living and nonliving resources. Particular attention will be paid to issues which are of special relevance to economies which depend on the production and export of commodities or services and marine environmental problems that have a transboundary, international character.

Which policy measures create desirable links among demographic change, market conditions, and sustainable ocean and coastal resource development?

How can these links be reinforced (when positive market conditions from the point of view of the producing economy imply a positive resource users' response in terms of the environment)?

How can undesirable links between population pressures and marine resources be reversed (when analysis implies that market incentives may harm the sustainability of marine resource development)?

Should trade policies be used to influence environmental standards in other economies?

Should trade policies be used to enforce or implement international environmental agreements?

How can economies of the region cooperate in the future to continue the exchange of information on population trends, marine environment, and marine policy measures.

Proposals to undertake joint studies designed to restore the integrity of marine resources of the North Pacific and establish the Pacific Rim Global Change Reference Center at the University of Washington.

All conference papers and recommendations from the round table will be included in the conference proceedings.

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