Demographic Change and the Fate of Russia's Schools Kerr 2005

Demographic Change and the Fate of Russia's Schools:

The Impact of Population Shifts on Educational Practice and Policy[1]

Stephen T. Kerr

University of Washington

Foreword

As a social institution, schooling is remarkably resilient yet in many ways quite conservative. In Russia, its resiliency has been demonstrated over the past 15 years under repeated attempts at reform of the system itself, its curriculum, its materials, the ways its teachers work, its cost, and so forth. In spite of these multiple reform efforts, what still happens from day to day in many Russian schools looks quite similar to what happened in Soviet schools a generation ago -- the system has managed to preserve many aspects of its operation in a form remarkably consistent with the patterns laid down and carefully prescribed by Stalin's Ministry of Enlightenment. Now, forces may be arrayed that have the power to shake a system that the best efforts of reformers, ministers, economic disaster and international consultants could not.

In 1993, on an extended trip to Russia to visit new types of educational institutions that were then emerging in the early Post-Soviet era, I visited Ekaterinburg. There, on a late October morning, I attended a special meeting that had been called by a city administrator responsible for education. Those invited included representatives of all the city agencies responsible for aspects of the development and education of young children -- teachers and school directors, but also psychologists, social workers, and representatives of the medical profession. One incident at the meeting stands out in sharp relief in my memory of the event: The city official who had called the meeting asked each of those present to estimate the percentage of children unable to make regular and reasonable progress in school due to incapacitating physical, mental, or other conditions. Accustomed to US educational statistics which suggest that somewhere between 5% and 20% of children would fall into such "special education" categories, depending on definitions, I was shocked to hear my Russian colleagues cite figures in the range of 50% to 70%. They provided some brief explanations, but the figures remained in my consciousness as indicators of difficult times to come for the Russian educational system.

More recently, the realization has begun to grow both in Russia and abroad that the country faces a future much more difficult than simple bad economics might predict. In fact, a confluence of factors at the moment provides what may be the most serious threat Russia's educational system and younger generation have ever had to face. Three sets of phenomena are converging and interacting: (1) a legacy of compromised health from the Soviet era, (2) a series of general demographic trends moving in the wrong directions, and (3) a set of frightful social pathologies. Together, these bode no good for the schools, teachers, and students of Russia. Ultimately the impact of these forces on the already troubled school system may pose serious threats to Russia's survival as a major world economic and scientific power.

The strategy here is first to review first the variety of negative trends in health, demographics, and social conditions. Next, we will look at how these trends have had and are having an impact on the work that teachers and students do in schools. Finally, we will look toward the future and try to discern how these patterns may develop further, and what ultimate impact they may have on the Russian educational system.

The data we will examine here come from various sources -- mostly Russian, but a few Western; some official government statistics, some sociological and other studies, some journalistic reports. Most of the data address national trends, but some regional figures are included where relevant (e.g., to address the ecological situation in and around Chernobyl following the nuclear disaster there in 1986).

The Health of Russia's Population and Children

Russians now suffer from more diseases, and die from these diseases in greater numbers and at earlier ages than do citizens of other developed nations. The following comparisons illustrate the differences:

Table 1

Death Rate (deaths per 100,000 population) -- Selected Causes

Condition	Russia (1997)¹	USA (1998)²
Heart and circulatory diseases	751.1	268.2
Cancer	201.8	200.3
Motor vehicle accidents	21.5	16.1
Alcoholism/cirrhosis	19.1	9.3
Pneumonia	63.7	41.7
Suicide	37.6	11.3
Murder	23.9	6.8
All Causes	1376.0	864.7

¹Source: National, 2000, p. 5. ²Source: Sotsial'noe, 1998, p. 316.

In the USA, during 1998, there were 364 cases of German measles reported, at a rate of 0.13 per 100,000 population (CDC, 2001); Russia, in the year 2000, reported 391,588 cases of German measles, at a rate of 1471.9 per 100,000 (Federal'nyi tsentr, 2001). The contrast is powerful, striking, and typical. In Russia, infants (up to the age of one year) die at a rate of 1696 per 100,000 births (Brui & Zbarskaia, 1997, p. 57); the comparable US figure is 719.8 (National, 2000, p. 89). Rates around Russia vary considerably, from 11 among children in Mordovia and St. Petersburg, to 28 in the city of Tomsk (O sovremennom, 1997).

Infectious diseases (such as tuberculosis, influenza, HIV/AIDS, and other sexually transmitted diseases) spread rapidly under conditions of social distress and crowding. The rate of increase in reported cases of HIV/AIDS in just the past year suggests that Russia may be "in the first stages of an epidemic" (Progress, 2000). Serious influenza epidemics, while not necessarily killing large numbers of Russians outright, nonetheless likely contribute significantly to the rise of deaths from other causes during winter months (Andreev & Biriukov, 1998). In Iaroslavl oblast', in 1996, the average preschool pupil lost two and half weeks (17 days) of school time to sickness, principally influenza and upper respiratory tract infections (Sostoianie zdorov'ia, 1996). Drug-resistant strains of TB have appeared, spread rapidly, and wreaked havoc in Russia's prisons and hospitals in recent years (Feshbach, 2001; Zuger, 2000), and children have been especially affected, with their rates of infection 1.5 times higher in 1997 than in 1990 (Naselenie, 1997). The number of special schools for children affected with TB increased from 533 in 1992 (serving 29,200 students) to 858 in 1998 (serving 46,000 students; Rossiiskii statisticheskii, 1999, p. 185). Some progress that was made in reducing the rates (or at least rates of increase) of such illnesses among children in the mid-1990s under the government's "Children of Russia" program appears to have been dissipated in the last few years. Authorities observe increasing numbers of children underweight at birth, and those experiencing illness due to lack of essential vitamins and microelements present in their diet (Shkol'nikov, 1997, p. 72).

Different regions of the country are affected differently by the problem of worsening health, with poor regions and those with a heritage of environmental problems being especially hard-hit -- in the Far East, for example, some 653 out of every 1000 inhabitants are felled annually by intestinal infections, while only 287 of 1000 experience such attacks in the Central-Black Earth region (figures from 1996; Naselenie, 1999). In the heavily industrialized regions of the former USSR, problems with air, soil, and water pollution have taken an especially heavy toll on children -- in a recent survey among school children in Irkutsk, doctors found the average child's medical records listed 5-8 illnesses, with no child in completely well condition. Rates of illness among urban children in the oblast' were reckoned to be four times higher than among those in rural areas (Irkutsk, 2000). In Tomsk oblast', during the period 1991-1997, the health of children fared worse than that of adults (with rates of illness among those age 0-14 increasing by 48% and among adolescents from 15-17 by 110%; Sostoianie zdorov'ia, 1998). In Novosibirsk in 1997, preschool children accounted for 63% of the cases of influenza observed (O sostoianii, 1998). Orel oblast witnessed gradual increases in the period from 1995 to 1999 of children with various degrees of serious health impairment to roughly 67% of all children (Pereverzeva, 2000). According to one survey in Tiumen' oblast', a large majority (83.5%) of Russians do not perceive themselves to be well (Gubin, 1999).

One factor that clearly contributes to the existence and deepening of health problems is the quality (or lack of it) of the country's health care system. Russia spends about $11 billion on its entire health care system annually (Naselenie, 2000, pp. 100-102), in comparison with an expenditure of roughly $1.5 trillion in the USA, a hundred-fold-plus difference. Similar constrictions operate at the level of services for children, leading to deficits in vaccinations, maternal health care, and suicide prevention (Twigg, 2000; Voloshin, 2000). The system itself suffers from problems of uncoordinated administration, unaffordable equipment and medicines, and poor planning (Russia's, 2001; Wines & Zuger, 2000). The situation is not helped by relatively low levels of general health knowledge among the population, including about relevant childhood illnesses such as diptheria and pediculosis (lice infestations; Pervysheva & Gorshkova, 1999; Khudovkin & Zubkov, 1999). Even when vaccinations are available, they are not always effective -- of those who contracted whooping cough in Novosibirsk oblast' in 1997, nearly 20% had been vaccinated at some earlier time (O sostoianii, 1998).

The general warning sounded by these overall indicators of health for the fate of Russia's young people is amplified when we consider four specific health factors which affect young people (and sometimes teachers) and their possibilities for success in schools in particular ways: drug and alcohol abuse; poor quality nutrition; sexually transmitted diseases and problems of abortion; and psychological disturbances.

Drug and alcohol abuse. Alcohol has always been a major figure of the Russian scene. What has changed in recent years is the volume of consumption, and the age at which serious drinking may start. Alcohol poisoning, as noted above, is a serious problem in the overall national health picture, and deaths increased in 2000 at a rate 43% faster than 1999 (More Russians, 2000). Children increasingly see alcohol and drugs as a form of recreation (Demin, 2001), and one estimate suggests that the incidence of alcohol-related psychoses among children has grown by more than 15 times during the 1990s (Baranov, 1999). Alcohol may contribute to the problems of children in more indirect ways: women report themselves less attracted to alcohol-dependent men (perhaps a natural self-protective mechanism given their likely lower life expectancy), and those men may be both less able to conceive children due to alcoholism and more likely to create marital problems that will lead to divorce and thus lowered living standards for any resulting children.

Drug use has also grown rapidly among the population at large and among teenagers in particular. The numbers of registered narcotics abusers increased three-fold from 1993 through 1998 (from 26 to 83 per 100,000 population) and of those hospitalized by more than four times (from 6 to 29 per 100,000; Sotisial'noe polozhenie, 1998, p. 310.) One estimate indicates that between 25% and 33% of young people are regularly using drugs (Deadly Youth, 2000). Some researchers see a transition occurring in youth culture from one centered around abuse of alcohol to one focused on heroin and drug use, and worry that the newer users come from relatively well-off families, including 75% from families where both parents are present, and where parents are professionals--engineers, teachers, scientists, etc. (Popov & Kondrat'eva, 1998). Data from 1998 indicate that 6522 children below the age of 14 were treated for "serious narcotic addictions" (Miroshnichenko, Pelipas, & Rybakova, 2000). Drug addiction is seen as especially worrisome, since it is often coincident with earlier ages of initiation of sexual activity, and exposure to HIV/AIDS (whether through sexual or intravenous routes).

Nutrition and the quality of food. Russian food is notoriously low in vitamins, especially Vitamin C, calcium, and the reduced diet forced on many Russians because of straightened economic conditions has led to deficits in protein consumption (Russian food, 2000). Scientists regularly express concern about the monotony of young peoples' diets: minimal consumption of meat, fish, fruit, and vegetables leads to reduced levels of B vitamins for 10-15% of the population and to growing problems with anemia (O sostoianii, 2000). Lack of iodine in children's diets has become a special worry following the Chernobyl catastrophe, and some 75% of children are said to suffer risk of early thyroid disease as a result (Vasil'ev, 1998).

Sexually transmitted diseases and the problems of abortion. Russia currently has about 430,000 people already infected with HIV, a number still considerably lower than the 1-2 million in the USA. But in Russia, the number is growing faster -- at up to 1000 new cases per week; one epxert predicts that Russia will have "millions" of active AIDS cases by 2003 (AIDS expert, 2000; Semionova, 2000). The 57,000 Russians registered with active AIDS include 951 children under the age of 14 (Rossiia: epidsituatsiia, 2000), the majority of whom are likely street prostitutes from large cities. In general, the number of infections with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among Russians aged 0-17 grew from 17,558 cases in 1990 to 45,393 cases in 1996 (Sobkin & Kuznetsova, 1998). Rates of infection from syphilis and gonorrhea are also high and increasing rapidly -- between 1990 and 1998, the number of syphilis cases among those aged 18-19 increased 47 times; for those 15-17, 55 times; and for those under the age of 15, 87 times (Kamsiuk, 1999).

The roots of the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS and STDs among young people can be partly attributed to rapidly changing patterns of sexual behavior. Initial age for sexual activity among Russian teenagers trended down sharply between 1972 and 1995; whereas only 39% of those age 18 and below were sexually active in 1972, by 1995 that number reached 65%. Russian youth also express approval for a wider variety of sexual practices, and have more sexual partners, than earlier. City youth and students are relatively more likely (67%) to use contraception as part of their initial sexual encounters, but the numbers decrease in the smaller centers (only 22% in Ivanovo; Denisenko & Dalla Zuanna, 1999).

A problem with contraception generally has been the tendency of Russian women to consider abortion as their primary method for controlling reproduction. In 1999, Russia registered 181 abortions for every 100 live births, a figure that has actually declined from 293 in 1968 but that exceeds the rate of West Germany by 15 times (Pri odinakovoi, 2001). Russian women also resort to abortion more regularly throughout their life spans (in comparison with women from Western Europe, who use this method primarily under the age of 20 or over the age of 35); the high rate of abortions is connected directly with the relatively high level of maternal perinatal death in Russia -- a quarter of all such deaths are directly attributable to abortion (Kvasha & Kharkova, 2000). As a method of birth control, abortion leaves much to be desired, since it tends to increase both fertility problems and problems with later births (Kamsiuk, 1999). While some experts have suggested that abortions be restricted in order to improve both women's health and the reproductive potential of the country, the majority still seem to feel that any restrictions would be counterproductive (Borisov, Sinel'nikov & Arkhangel'skii, 1997).

Yet another aspect of changing sexual mores that may be affecting Russia's population is the departure for other countries of a substantial contingent of young women who become sex workers. One estimate suggests that up to 500,000 women have taken this path, leading to not only problems for themselves (many are naïve and are in fact tricked into submitting to what amounts to sexual slavery), but also to the removal of their reproductive potential from the Russian population (Engel, 2000).

In all, the problems of STDs and continued reliance on abortion as a means of contraception have meant that the possibility of teenagers enjoying both general physical and sexual health over the long term are lessening, the chances for normal fertility among Russian women are shrinking, and the health risks to newborn children are increasing. The consequences of these various influences for Russia's young people are not pleasant.

Psychological health. In addition to problems with substance abuse and STDs, Russia's young people face additional problems on a front that was almost invisible under the USSR: psychological illness. The number of schools for children with psychological problems has increased from 59 in 1993 to 105 in 1998, and the number of students served there from 10,400 to 17,300; students served in special classes but located in regular schools grew from 117,300 to 190,000 over the same period (Sotsial'noe polozhenie, 1998, p. 337; Rossiiskii, 1999, p. 191). More schools have the services of a school psychologist available now than ever before, and those teachers increasingly deal with a variety of problems caused by stress and confusion in a rapidly changing society (Morozova, 2001; Braginskii, 2000). Concerns about children's psychological health appears as a regular feature in discussions of general health issues, and at conferences. The school psychologist's difficult lot is not made easier by lack of a supportive legal structure, adequate tests, and materials for diagnostic work (Vachkov, 2001).

The stresses of a changing society express themselves in adolescent psychology variously. At one extreme, suicide among young Russian males aged 15-24 exceeded 50 per 100,000 population, the highest rate in the former USSR (Young people, 2000). At the other end of the scale, Russia's teachers and policy makers worry about the pressures being exerted on children's mental health by undiminished (or, at some special schools, increasing) amounts of homework and required extracurricular activity (Bogdanova, 2000).

Changes in Russia's Demographic Profile

The overall demographic situation in Russia at the moment and for the foreseeable future is described simply, if crudely, in terms of a ratio: the number of births over the number of deaths. If the result is greater than 1, the population is growing; if it is less than 1, the population is declining. Russia's population has been in decline for the past eight years. In 1992, there were 148.7 million Russians; in October, 2000, there were 145 million (Germanovich, 2000; Osnovnye, 2000). Some demographers refer to the situation as "the Russian cross" -- the point in time (1992) when the graph lines of rising deaths and dropping births actually intersected (DaVanzo & Adamson, 1997). The overall decline is about 750,000 per year. In recent years, many of the arguments among the demographers have revolved around how optimistic or pessimistic they should be about forecasting the future -- in other words, is it more likely that death rates themselves (as opposed to actual numbers of deaths) will continue to increase, or will they level off? Under the most favorable predictions (increased births and declining deaths, accompanied by some in-migration), the population would dip and then grow back to 143.7 million by 2015; but with a continued drop in births and deaths exacerbated by newly virulent diseases and increasing social pathologies, the number could be as low as 128 million. Life expectancy for males has fallen to 59.6 years, significantly below other developed nations (Zbarskaia, 2000).

The situation clearly has implications for various parts of the nation's social fabric: the armed forces depend on cadres of in-coming recruits of certain sizes; the economy demands a certain number of workers; declines in the number of young people overall leads to an "aging" of the population precisely at a time when working potential is most needed to rebuild and renovate the country (Brui, Kurilina, Varshavskaia, & Chumarina, 1999; Demograficheskoe starenie, 2000). For children and schools, the decline in overall population means more competition from other economic sectors for those who might otherwise become teachers; premature deaths of males mean more children will grow up in single-parent families, with accompanying stresses.

In addition to this general picture of the population situation, there are two specific questions that need to be examined with regard to the future of education. One -- family structure -- pertains specifically to the fate of young people and their ability to make adequate progress in school; the other -- the continuing internal migration of people from rural areas to the cities -- has implications for the likelihood of the nation's being able to offer and support education universally throughout the land.

Family structure. The various factors noted above -- declining birth rates, increased chances for complications at or immediately after birth, male mortality and undependability, economic and social problems -- has led many women to reduce the number of children that they otherwise might have borne. The earlier age for onslaught of sexual activity means that more children are being borne out of wedlock, with concomitant lowered chances for them to receive needed support during early childhood and education (Baranov, 2000; Obzor i otsenka, 1999). In fact, some researchers note that the changes, illustrating as they do the possibility of greater free choice for women and the removal of earlier restrictive norms, may ultimately be a good thing on an individual level (Ivanova & Mikheeva, 1998). But lessened social services and support systems make the general panorama difficult for the society as a whole. The problem noted above of continued reliance on abortions as a means of contraception, combined with earlier pregnancies, large numbers of premature births and pregnancies among teenagers, all contribute to and exacerbate the problems of childbearing and child-raising in contemporary Russia.

Divorce also plays a role. The number of divorces has actually declined somewhat from the early and mid-1990s, when it reached 680,000 per year in 1994. But even at the current level of 532,500 per year (1999), there are several hundred thousand children affected by divorce annually (Kazhdyi god, 2001). In conditions where mothers nearly universally work (and where economic conditions make it difficult for a woman to actually use the three years she is legally allowed to take off after the birth of a child), where women's salaries are still typically significantly lower than those of men, and where availability of day care has decreased recently, the situation places large burdens on women. This becomes a special problem when divorce is coupled with problems in collecting child support, especially where the husband is working class and rarely sees the child, or is unemployed (Otets, 2001).

Another phenomenon of the 1990s -- child abandonment -- is especially troubling, for it suggests a further weakening of family bonds and a willingness of parents to step out of the most basic of all familial responsibilities. Statistics show that more than 12,000 children were placed by parents or committed to Children's Homes (doma rebenka) in 1997. If orphans are included, nearly 597,000 children were in some form of children's home or foster care in 1997, and increase from 460,000 in 1993 (Sotsial'noe polozhenie, 1998, p. 220). An especially sad part of this equation is the fact that a relatively large number of those abandoned suffer from some form of physical or mental handicap. While a few such institutions have closed on the initiative of local authorities who have created mechanisms for increasing the number of adoptions and foster care arrangements (Siun'kova, 2000), the majority of these children continue to live under conditions that do not bode well for their future success.

Migration. Migration to, from, and within the Russian Federation constitutes another factor which has serious implications for the ability of the educational system to maintain its operations under current conditions. Two specific issues are relevant here -- migration of educated Russians outside the country, and internal migration, principally from rural to urban areas. Both of these tendencies are driven by economic realities, and people's sense that they will find a better life if they move to a less troubled region.

While the numbers have decreased somewhat since the early 1990s, the number of citizens emigrating to countries outside the CIS and Baltics continues at around 80,000 per year (Sotsial'noe polozhenie, 1998). Many of these are the county's most educated citizens -- scientists, scholars, physicians, teachers, and so forth (Rakhmaninova & Varshavskaia, 1998, examine from where in Russia these emigrants left from, and their analysis makes it clear that the majority of those leaving for countries outside the former USSR were from major scientific centers such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Cheliabinsk, etc.) Their loss means that the country has that much less cultural capital on which to draw for the tasks of internal reconstruction. When they leave, their typically low salaries (in comparison to what can be earned in the private sector) and intellectual lifestyles are often not attractive to many of those who remain, leading to a situation in which they are difficult to replace. Their departure may also, over time, lead to a situation in which the traditionally "high tone" of the curriculum becomes difficult to sustain.

Migration within Russia is another aspect of the country's shifting demographic situation. Here, the issue is one of migration from rural areas and small towns into cities, with consequent threats to the supportability of rural schools. Figures show that the rural population has shrunk at a rate of 3-4% per year over the past six years, while the urban population, while also shrinking, shrank less rapidly, at a rate of 1-3% per year (Gorodskoe, 1998). Major lines of internal migration over the past decade have been from Eastern Siberia and the Far East toward the European North and Center, and from the European Center to the European South (Andreev & Rakhmaninova, 1999). The number of rural schools has decreased annually from 48,800 in 1992 to 46,400 in 1998, while the number of city schools increased slightly, from 21,400 to 22,600, over the same period (Rossiiskii statisticheskii, 1999, p. 186). One could argue that what started in Russia in the early 1990s parallels the process by which small rural schools in the USA were rapidly consolidated into larger schools and school districts in the 1910s-1920s of the past century, but without the facilities to provide transportation to more remote consolidated schools, these changes must be seen by many rural Russian parents as yet another impetus to abandon the countryside for the uncertain pleasures of the city.

None of these emigration factors is liable to be fatal to the education system by itself, but taken together, they add additional pressure on an already weakened part of the social infrastructure.

The Social Pathologies of Contemporary Russian Life

Most of the phenomena to be discussed in this section have already been alluded to in some way above -- poverty and homelessness, environmental pollution, psychological stress, crime, and a climate of rapidly evolving personal values. These factors stand in close mutual interrelationship with the demographic and health conditions discussed earlier, and it would be difficult to tease out precise causal relationships. But whether causative or merely co-linear, these features of the current Russian scene do influence the ways that students and teachers work in schools, and the possibilities the schools have to really address the problems of the surrounding society.

We will examine here the issues of poverty, pollution, stress, crime, and media effects on children, and start with a look at some general evaluations of the quality of life in Russia today.

The quality of life in general. The theme is not entirely a new one; in the early 1990s, sociologists were already examining sets of figures on crime, pollution, and other indicators of a stressed society and culture. Morozova (1994) estimated then that 3% of milk and meat samples were contaminated by pesticides, and that over 30 million people lived in situations that were ecologically dangerous or risky. She used the term "extinction" (vymiranie) to describe the potential of the situation, a term that has also been used (not always without controversy) by others. More recently, the notion of "quality of life" and related ideas have made their way into the Russian sociological and statistical literature. One analysis connecting some of the health and social indicators listed above found that higher birth rates are associated with a higher level of "human development" (Sagradov, 2000). Education figures in many of these summary indicators of quality of life (e.g., Andreev, 2001; Charina, 1998).

Homelessness and poverty. There is some evidence that the number of "vagabond" children is on the increase, and that there may be as many as 5 million of them (Russia has, 2000; Slutskii, 1998). Of those children eventually discharged from orphanages or children's homes, some 30% are estimated to become homeless. It is interesting to recall in this context the work of Anton Makarenko in a very similar situation in the 1920s, when millions of "besprizornye deti" (homeless children) roamed the cities and countryside, often organized into criminal gangs. Makarenko's initial pedagogical work was with such children, and in trying to create with them a setting in which they could develop in at least a somewhat normal way. While increasing numbers of charitable organizations exist in Russia to address the question of homelessness, they are often poorly organized and underfunded, and often elicit hostility and suspicion from local authorities.

Environmental pollution. The consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe continue to reverberate in the consciousness of Russians. Moreover, they are forced to address daily the implications for their own lives. A study conducted in Briansk oblast', the region most heavily polluted by Chernobyl, found that residents were experiencing higher rates of thyroid illness, and problems with respiratory, nervous, and circulatory systems. The rate of endocrine system disorders among children in the region reached 68.5 per 1000 in 1998, in comparison with an all-Russia average of 25.6 (Zebolov & Bondarenko, 1999). Several of the "closed cities" of the former Soviet military-industrial complex have severe problems with radioactivity from prior accidents there (Lappo & Polian, 1997). Many children in Ekaterinburg (then Sverdlovsk) were negatively affected by the vaccine given to their pregnant mothers during an anthrax outbreak in 1979.

The overall range of pollutants is large, as is the range of polluting industries and practices: soil pollution from toxic discharges by industry; factory discharges into water sources; soil erosion and spoilage from poor farming practices; forest fires, etc. Unfortunately, little progress is under way in controlling any of these processes (Rodin, 1998). One estimate of the overall effects of air pollution on health suggests that, while the risk of death from pollution is not as great as that from the most serious diseases (heart attack, stroke, cancer), it does rise to the same levels as chronic bronchitis, suicide, murder, accidents, and several other causes of death (Revich & Bykov, 1997).

Psychological stress. A number of indicators point to increasing psychological stress on the Russian population. The number of suicides, at over 40 per 100,000 population, exceeds all other European countries except for Lithuania. Among young people, the rate of suicide is lower -- about 22 in 1999, but still high in comparison with many other countries (Deti v stranakh, 142). Characteristics of those who commit suicide include: low social status, unemployed, recently having entered the army or prison (or recently having been released), or pensioners. Some conclude that it is not so much that particular social indicators predict suicide as that a change in one's status, away from a known and safe position towards an unknown one (Gulinskii & Rumiantseva, 1998).

Other factors in stress are less easily quantifiable, but may take their tolls. Uncertainty about one's work, the state of the national economy (and possible resulting inflation), the possibility of finding better housing (for those still living in communal apartments or substandard housing), concern about medical conditions and the affordability of health care for one's children or for aging parents -- all these can increase the stress on children and families in ways that may make children's success at school more difficult to support.

Crime. Young people engage in criminal activity today in Russia at a much higher rate than was the case in the Soviet Union. In 1999, nearly 11% of all crimes were committed by 14-17 year-olds, and among 1000 children of this age group, 183 will have committed a crime of some type (Deti v stranakh, 2001). Those in the age groups 14-15 and 16-17 committed a disproportionate share of all crimes. Girls, in sharp contrast to the situation a few years earlier, were implicated in nearly 40% of these crimes. Even younger children -- those 13 and under -- were charged with some 319,332 crimes. Many of the crimes in which teenagers are involved have a sexual element -- every sixth rape was committed by a teenager, and every third gang rape was either committed by teenagers or with their participation (Sobkin & Kuznetsova, 1998).

Figures from Samara oblast', often cited as one of Russia's more progressive regions, provide a vivid example of how these trends play out at the local level. For the year 1996, there were 16 crimes for every 1000 teenagers (ages 14-17), and that group was responsible for 10% of all the crimes committed. Of these young people, 38% grew up in single-parent families, and 5% in an orphanage or children's home -- both of these figures have been on the increase in recent years. Of those eventually convicted, most (65%) had only a secondary or incomplete secondary education. As one observer noted, "Society must become interested at a gut level (krovno) that its future citizens have more chances to raise their intellectual level" (Prozhivina, 1998, p. 62).

The media and children. In the West, there has emerged a consensus over the past 30 years that repeated viewing of televised violence and erotica does in fact have an influence on the way that young children come to view the world. The connections are hard to quantify in a way that would allow straightforward predictive assessments, but they do exist: those who watch large amounts television violence, for example, and who live in environments where violence is otherwise a normative form of behavior, and whose exposure to televised violence is not mediated by a parent or older sibling, are more likely themselves to engage in violent behavior. Similarly, such media exposure often leads to a less trustful view of the world in general, and of interactions with other people in particular.

A Russian study of 116 broadcast hours examined the presence and content of televised violence and sexual episodes. The authors found that the average broadcast hour contained 4.2 episodes of force or sexual content. Given that the average Russian teenager spends at least two hours per day watching television, this suggests exposure to at least 16 such acts daily. While there is a somewhat higher incidence of such material on late-night TV (5.2 incidents/hour), the levels were almost as high during the morning (3.1) and day (4.6) when younger children are more likely to be watching. The authors were especially concerned by the fact that the frequency of such acts also rises on the weekends, another high viewing time, and by the variety of "formerly taboo" social behavior shown -- fighting, beatings, natural catastrophes, accidents, insults, and "group aggression" (mass disorder, terrorist acts, vandalism; Sobkin, Khlebnikova, & Gracheva, [1998]).

On one level, the jaded Western observer might be tempted to say to those Russians concerned about the behavior and future prospects for their children, "Welcome to the club! This is how we've been living for the past 50 years ourselves!" But doing so, however much it might allow us to dismiss these trends as "natural" and "inevitable," would also require that we overlook the distinctive nature of the Russian social experience over the past century, how that experience found concrete representation in the formation and practices of the Russian system of education, and what some deeper implications of these trends may be both for Russian education and the country's future.

On the Brink: Russia's Schools, Students, and Teachers Face Social Decay

When we examine the trends in health, population demographics, and general social conditions noted above, and try to assess their implications for Russia's schools and teachers, we are faced with a quandary: While the problems seem frightening, in some cases even desperately bad (health conditions stand out especially), the schools mostly keep operating, the teachers mostly keep coming to class and doing their work, the school directors and other administrators mostly continue to try to keep their institutions running, the students mostly keep attending and doing their assignments. So, the question may be, if the situation is so bad, why isn't it worse? That is, if the conditions of health, demographics, and social rot are actually affecting Russian schools in a very negative way, is there actually evidence that the system, and its work, and its participants (students, teachers, directors) are actively suffering? And if they are not now, will they? These are the issues we will attempt to address here through a brief review of the current situation for the schools themselves, the teachers who work there, and the students who learn, and on whom the country's future ultimately depends.

Schools: Facing troubled reality. While the schools generally continue to function in Russia, there are some places where the strains are showing quite clearly. One of these is rural schools. As noted above, many rural schools have closed recently, and the large numbers that remain are viewed as being a drag on the system. One estimate suggests that as much as 1/3 of the $1.5 billion currently being spent to maintain the complete network of rural schools could be saved through some relatively simple restructuring and consolidation (Matveeva, 2001). Of all the country's general secondary schools, over 70% are in rural areas; they employ 41% of the teachers, but they enroll only 29% of the students. The quality of education in rural schools in generally viewed to be poor, due to lack of supplies and antiquated facilities. As one expert noted, the students in these schools are effectively "left out of education" (Gur'ianova, 2000).

Lack of continuing investment in school facilities generally means that facilities are often in poor repair, and need basic remodeling. The widely broadcast revelations of Fedor Ligachev at the 1988 Plenum of the CPSU about crumbling schools that lacked basic running water, sanitation, and heating, have not been addressed significantly in the intervening years. Some 37% of school buildings (housing 43% of all students) still need capital repairs, and 7% of schools (with 7% of the students) were in dangerous condition. Only 193,000 computers were available for student use in all schools, or roughly 1 for every 100 students (in the USA, the ratio is about 1:3) (Zharova, 1999). Budget limitations do not promise much relief on any of these fronts soon.

School curricula and operations may also need to change in response to the changing ethnic make-up of Russian society, new consciousness among ethnic groups, and the movement of ethnic Russians back into the Russian Federation from other parts of the former USSR, brining with them elements of those other cultures. While bi- or multi-culturalism has not been a major feature of the post-Soviet educational scene, there may need to be more attention focused here as groups increasingly intermingle, and as groups that initially sought to carve out "their own place" in the curriculum of a region's schools gradually realize that their economic survival and future is more likely to be tied to fostering close connections with the Russian majority, or perhaps in working with that majority to create anew curricular consensus about the place of various ethnic groups within the RF as a whole (Kuz'min, 1999).

The condition of children's health interacts with the day-to-day operation of schools in ways that are now only a memory for most American school administrators. Large numbers of children sick with highly infectious diseases like influenza and measles, combined with the greater susceptibility of nominally well children to inflection due to poor diets and contaminated environments, leads to a fairly high rate of school closures during the academic year for "epidemiological quarantine." Such closures have occurred regularly in many major Russian cities over the past two years -- Nizhnyi Novgorod, Astrakhan, Omsk, Ekaterinburg, Vologda, Ulianovsk, Khabarovsk, Syktyvkar, Cheliabinsk, and Simferopol. Lengths of closures ranged from a few days to two weeks or more. Children's health, and how to improve it in the context of the schools, is a growing priority for educational leaders at various levels. A conference arranged by the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education in early 2001 was to consider possibilities and make recommendations for how to address the issue for preschool institutions (Reshetnikova, 2001). At the local level, teachers increasingly see health as a major curricular and practical issue for their work, and express the need for better materials to deal with it Vologodskaia, 2000).

Ultimately, the work of the schools needs to be supported and guaranteed in order to provide for the country's long-term survival. At the upper levels, this is expressed through concerns for the "brain drain" of skilled scientists and researchers out of state-funded institutions for work in private firms or abroad (Gokhberg, 1998).At the level of the school, authorities have issued warnings that school children are increasingly poorly prepared for work in higher education -- one estimate suggested only 40% of ninth-graders are equipped for further study at needed levels, and that today only a few students sitting for entrance exams at prestigious universities could solve problems that 20-30 years ago were easily dealt with by all. Freedom brings new responsibilities for those entrusted with the operation of an educational system, responsibilities that are not always easy to discharge. In considering this overall panorama, some experts suggest that what is needed is a "Conservative-Evolutionary" approach, one designed to preserve the best of the past, but also allow for experimentation with needed reforms and new approaches (Kolesnikov & Turchenko, 1999).

Students: Into the "zone of risk". As noted above, students are increasingly enticed by the possibilities of drugs, alcohol, crime, early sexual involvement, and increasingly explicit media offerings. They are also threatened by health and environmental risks, a weakening family structure, and the stress that comes from living in a constantly changing society. Is it reasonable to expect them to be able to cope?

One clear indicator of the future is the life plans of students living in rural areas. Put simply, they'd rather live and work in the city. A study among young people in Penza oblast' revealed that 59% of students would prefer to live in the city, and only 8% in the country (the remaining 33% were undecided). An even smaller percentage -- 7% -- indicated they'd like to work in agriculture (Volkova, Korotnev, & Fedotova, 1999).

The personal values that young people bring with them through the educational system and into higher education is also changing under the influences noted above. A more economically oriented model of values now seems to predominate, with more tolerance towards corruption and acceptance of criminal behavior, and a world-view in which conflict and interpersonal difficulties are seen as normal (Olshanskii, Klimova & Volzhskaia, 1999).

One significant study, already cited above, looks at children's changing situation and values, including sex, drugs and alcohol, crime, and familial stress. The latter area is a subject of special concern, since young people now seem not to expect familial stability, and interpret positive spousal relationships largely in terms of sexual harmony rather than psychological compatibility. This last finding seems puzzling, for these same young people also have relatively little real information about the nature of sexual relationships, and act mostly out of "street smarts" about sex rather than on the basis of any real discussion in schools (Sobkin & Kuznetsova, 1998).

Teachers: Will they continue to serve? An important question to ask with regard to Russia's teachers is "Why would they continue to work under such conditions?" Part of the answer is simply that their traditions are deep and strong -- this is still much more an "honorable profession" than is the case in the USA, and often one handed down through generations. Also, the options, especially for rural teachers or those in economically depressed regions, are few, and a teacher's salary, if meager, is now (in most places anyway) surer than it was a few years ago (if often still paid late by 2-3 months).

As with students and the situation of schools more generally, teachers working in rural areas suffer under special circumstances. One plaintive comment on a rural teacher's lot appeared in the journal Direktor shkoly [School Principal], and noted such problems as having to feed the cows and other animals before school, rounding up local unemployed workers and bribing them with vodka to cut wood for the school stove, finding the money to buy the wood to replace rotted floor boards, consulting with parents and the school librarian about the unimaginably high costs of new textbooks. Out of 60 children, 53 are ill, but they all need to work on the school's allotment of farmland anyway to grow potatoes to sell to support the school program.

All is not stolid suffering in silence; there are in fact some signs of more open stress among teachers. One example is teacher strikes, which in 1998 involved 7695 schools and 252,000 teachers around the country (Zharova, 1999). Teacher shortages have also occurred in some areas, with an overall shortage during the current (2000-2001) school year estimated at 50,000 teachers (Weir, 2000). Surveys of teachers' attitudes show them to be wary of the worsening conditions in education and science -- only 10% would wish their own children to become teachers, seeing it as a "unprestigious" profession, and most are very pessimistic about the abilities of the government to solve either the problems of the schools or the problems of life more generally (Orlova, 1998).

One interesting study of teachers' values and professional orientation focused exclusively on those who work in kindergartens, the "upbringers" (vospitateli). This is an especially interesting group to consider, since they, perhaps even more than teachers in regular schools, were always seen as distinctive under the Soviet system, and the true initiators of a child's educational experience. In a survey of 270 kindergarten teachers conducted during 1998, Sobkin and Marich found that most were fairly content with their choice of profession, but that those in the middle of their careers, from about 3 to 13 years of teaching experience, were those least satisfied and most likely to consider an alternative career -- about 19% of those with 3-8 years experience, and 23% of those with 9-13 years experience (p. 128). This corresponds with patterns that have been observed in the West, where initial enthusiasm is gradually replaced by doubt and yearning for change, which in turn gradually changes to resignation with one's fate. A further, more detailed factor analysis of the results showed that teachers' values changed significantly throughout the course of their careers, and that certain features of their value structure seemed strong throughout -- for example, a dissatisfaction with the marginalization of their work, low pay, and low social status, and the general lack of adequate facilities, materials, experts, medical staff, etc. Further, their interest in deep and pedagogically interesting reforms in the structure and practice of their work seemed to run far beyond the opportunities provided for them in their real day-to-day work settings, suggesting that the administrative superstructure of the educational system, as currently constituted, may simply be incapable of using the potential that does exist. Teachers do indeed appear ready to become "subjects" of their own professional activity, but are frustrated by situations that deny them that chance (Sobkin & Marich, 2000, pp. 137-162).

At the Heart of the Maelstrom: Can the Schools Build a New Social Order?

So there is the picture: sick children, increasingly affected by drugs, alcohol, eating poor food, living lives troubled by too-early sexual activity, and showing ever more signs of psychological harm from these influences; families coming apart, and a fearful sense among many people, young and old, that they need to abandon their country homes and move to the city to ensure economic survival; a social surround that offers young people less a supportive environment than a virulent set of social pathologies -- homelessness, stress, crime, and violent, hypersexualized media; schools that are closing in the countryside, teachers who are leaving for other work or dissatisfied with the work they have. What does this suggest for the future of Russian education, and for the future of Russia?

There are some basic and common-sensical answers: sick children cannot learn, or cannot learn well. As long as disastrous health conditions prevail in Russia, the schools will not be able to pull out of their downward spiral. Wonderful equipment or even sound buildings are not absolutely needed, but health is as close to a sine qua non for education as we are likely to find. Likewise, stability, in the sense of knowing where one is living, that one has a place to return to at night, and that there are people there who will not abuse or hurt one, are probably also near the top in importance. As the society matures, and more people enter the middle class (which is happening, if slowly), perhaps these conditons can re-emerge for more of Russia's school children.

It is more difficult to see a clear solution to the problem of the move from the country to the city; the economic realities of life there is more attractive. But the problem in Russia's hinterlands is that the infrastructure has not been developed that would allow consolidation on the same scale or in the same ways that happened in the USA in the first part of the twentieth century -- lack of good roads, buses, and administrative inexperience in creating and managing new kinds of schools are all in short supply. This will be a test.

The problems with alternative "life styles" (recreational drugs, alcohol, sex, the media, etc.) are especially troubling for Russia, since it was so isolated from those influences -- excepting alcohol -- for so long. The schools were accustomed to serious students who took their work seriously, and who were not otherwise easily distracted. Now, all the influences of Western popular (proletarian?) culture are at Russia's gates, and at the gates of its schoolhouses. Can the schools, by themselves, or with parents' help, recreate the old culture of serious purpose and intellectual rigor? It will be an interesting test of culture against culture.

Teachers are also part of this equation. To date, they have remained remarkably placid, if occasionally restless. But they have willingly put up with conditions no Western teacher would stand for more than a day or two: schools without central heating in -60° F. weather, warmed by a single coal or wood stove, with layers of ice on the walls, and students and teachers working in their heaviest coats. Yet, they continue to work, and have not yet found the political will or social voice to alter their particular lot significantly.

Without her schools, Russia will continue to slide downwards, and will ultimately lose that distinctive culture of learning that it developed at such cost under the Soviet regime, and preserved in remarkably good shape until the past few years. This has difficult implications for her standing as a world power, and as a contributor (not merely a consumer) of world culture. Ultimately, change may require, at last, that the Russian government (at all levels) really begin to take education seriously, and not merely throw it the scraps of the leftovers. For it to do so would mark a change from what has been the case for the past 15 years, and would set a positive example for the rest of the world, including most of the West, to follow.

References

AIDS expert forecasts millions of HIV cases in Russia by 2003. (2000). RIA bulletin dated 11/28/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4656, 28 November 2000.

Andreev, E., & Biriukov, V. (1998). Vliianie epidemii grippa na smertnost' naseleniia Rossii. Voprosy statistiki, 2, 73-77.

Andreev, I. (2001). Eshche raz ob obustroistve Rossii. Vestnik rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 71(1), 39-44.

Andreeva, E., & Rakhmaninova, M. (1999). Vnutrennaiaia migratsiia v Rossii: Proshloe i nastoiashchee. Voprosy statistiki, 5, 53-63.

Avdeev, A. (1998). Gorodskoe i sel'skoe naselenie. Available online at: http://dmo.econ.msu.ru/demografiia

Baranov, A. (1999). Zdorov'e rossiiskikh detei. Pedagogika, 8, 41-44.

Baranov, A. (2000). O nekotorykh faktorakh populiatsionnogo krizisa. Sotsiologicheskie isseldovaniia, 7, 116-119.

Bogdanova, M. (2000). Kto vyderzhit shkol'nye na gruzki? Zdorov'e detei, 47-48.

Borisov, V., Sinel'nikov, A., & Arkhangel'skii, V. (1997). Aborty i planirovanie sem'i v Rossii: Pravovye i nravstvennye aspekty. Voprosy statistiki, 3, 75-81.

Braginskii, V. (2000). Lishennye liubvi. Shkolnyi psikholog, 31-32.

Brui, B., Kupilina, E., Varshavskaia, N., & Chumarina, V. (1999). O razvitii demograficheskikh protesessov v rossiiskoi federatsii v 1998 godu. Voprosy statistiki, 10, 30-38.

Brui, B., Zbarskaia, I., & Volkov, A. (1997). O sovremennom sostoianii i prognoze smertnosti naseleniia Rossiiskoi Federatsii. Voprosy statistiki, 3, 54-58.

Charina, V. (1998). O model'nom nabore sotsial'nykh indikatorov urovnia zhizni naseleniia. Voprosy statistiki, 8, 15-19.

DaVanzo, J., & Adamson, D. (1997, July). Russia's demographic "crisis": How real is it? RAND Corporation. Available online at: http:www.rand.org/publications/IP/IP162

Julie DaVanzo, Clifford Grammich (2001). Dire demographics: Population trends in the russian federation. (Report MR-1273-WFHF/DLPF/RF). Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp.

Deadly youth drugs culture flourishes in post-Soviet moral vacuum. (2000). Agence France Presse bulletin dated 12/18/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4700, 20 December 2000.

Demin, A., & Demina, I. (2001). Novye dannye o zdorov'e nashikh detei. Moscow: Assosiatsiia obshchestvennogo zdorov'ia. Available online at: http://www.glasnet.ru/~hefrus/publications/bull07/01.html

Demograficheskoe starenie naseleniia rossiiskoi federatsii. (2000). Voprosy statistiki, 1, 57-62.

Denisenko, M., & Della Zuanna, J-P. (1999, May). Seksual'noe povedenie rossiiskoi molodezhi. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 36. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Deti v stranakh SNG. (2001). Moscow: Statkomitet SNG.

Engel, J. (2000). International sexual trafficking of Russian girls as a factor in declining population. Moscow: MiraMed Institute. Bulletin dated 9/13/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4510, 13 September 2000.

FastStats, A to Z. Measles. Hyattsville, MD: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats

Feshbach, M. (2001) Russia´s Population Meltdown. The Wilson Quarterly, 25(1)

Germanovich, A. (2000). Russian population declines. Vedomosti/RIA bulletin dated 12/6/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4673, 7 December 2000.

Gokhberg, L. (1998). Nauchnyi potentsial Rossii v zerkale statistiki. Voprosy statistiki, 11, 18-31.

Gubin, A. V. (1999). Sostoianie zdorov'ia naseleniia Tiumenskoi oblasti. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 5, 93-95.

Gulinskii, Ia., & Rumiantsev, G. (1998). Samoubiistva v Rossii. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 25. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Gur'ianova, M. (2000). Shkola rossiiskoi glubinki: Kak vyzhit'? Narodnoe obrazovanie, 3, 5-9.

HIV infection si spreading in Russia faster than in Africa. (2000). Pravda.ru item dated 12/21/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4703, 22 December 2000.

Irkutsk: There are practically no healthy children in the oblast. Tsentr demografii i ekologii cheloveka Instituta narodnokhoziaistvennogo prognozirovaniia RAN. [Original report from Baikal TV]. Available on-line at: http://demoscope.ru/newsp160.html [9 March 2001].

Irkutsk: V oblasti prakticheski net zdorovykh detei. (2000). Available online at: http://demoscope.ru/newsp160.html

Ivanova, E., & Mikheeva, A. (1998). Vnebrachnoe materinstvo v Rossii. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 28. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Kamsiuk, L. (1999, October). Reproduktivnoe zdorov'e naseleniia Rossii. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 40. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Kazhdyi god razvod v Rossii ostavliaet bez odnogo is roditelei sotni tysiach detei. (2001, February 26-March 11). Demoscop Weekly, 9. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Kolesnikov, L., & Turchenko, V. (1999). trategiia obrazovaniia v interesakh bezopasnosti strany. Pedagogika, 5, 3-7.

Kuz'min, M. (1999). Obrazovanie v usloviiakh polietnicheskoi i polikul'turnoi Rossii. Pedagogika, 6, 3-11.

Kvasha, E., & Khar'kova, T. (2000). Aborty v Rossii. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 48. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Lappo, G., & Polian, P. (1997). Zakrytye goroda Rossii. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 16. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Massey, S. M. (2002). Russia's maternal & infant health crisis: Socio-economic implications and the path forward. Policy Brief. EastWest Institute. Available online at: http://psp.iews.org

Matveeva, A. (2001, January 15). Ekspert spros na gosudarstvo -- Otkrytie obrazovaniia. ISI Emerging Markets Data. Available online at: http://www/securities.com/

Miroshnichenko, L., Pelipas, V., & Rybakova, L. (2000). Pedagogika, 3, 3-13.

Morozova, G. (1994). Degradatsiia natsii -- Mif ili real'nost? Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 1, 22-30.

Morozova, N. (2001). Real'naia situatsiia i real'nye perspektivy. Shkolnyi psikholog, 1.

Naselenie rossii 1998. (1999). Moscow: Tsentr demografii i ekologiia cheloveka, RAN.

Naselenie rossii 1999. (2000). Moscow: Tsentr demografii i ekologiia cheloveka, RAN.

National vital statistics reports, 48(11). (2000, July 24). Hyattsville, MD: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.

O sostoianii zdorov'ia i organizatsii pitaniia shkol'nikov. (2000, September 18). Moscow: Mossanepid. Available on-line at: http://www.mossanepid.ru/press/18092000.htm

O sostoianii zdorov'ia naseleniia i sanitarno-epidemiologicheskom blagopoluchii Novosibirskoi oblasti v 1997 godu. (1998). Available on-line at http://

O sovremennom sostoianii smertnosti naseleniia Rossiiskoi Federatsii. (1997). Doklad komissii po voprosam zhenshchin, sem'i i demografii pri Prezidente Rossiiskoi Federatsii. Available online at: http://vivovoco.nns.ru/VV/NO_COMM/DEMOGOV.HTM

Obzor i otsenka tendentsii v oblasti zdorov'ia naselenia. (1999, November 12). Moscow: Ministerstvo zdravookhraneniia RF. Available online at: http://www.owl.ru/win/docum/rf/population/zdrav.htm

Ol'shanskii, V., Klimova, S., & Volzhskaia, N. (1999). Shkol'niki v ismeniaiushchemsia obshchestve. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 6, 88-95.

Operativnaia statisticheskaia informatsiia. (2000). Moscow: Federal'nyi tsentr gossanepidnadzora, Ministerstvo zdravookhraneniia RF. Available online at: http://www.fcgsen.ru/statinf

Orlova, L. (1998). O sotsial'nom samochuvstvii uchitelei moskovskoi oblasti. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 8, 88-94.

Osnovnye sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli po rossiiskoi federatsii za 1996-2000 gg. (2000). Voprosy statistiki, 12, 31-42.

Otets kak kormilets. (2001, February 26-March 11). Demoscop Weekly, 9. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Pereverzeva, E.N. (1999). Sostoianie zdorov'ia shkol'nikov oblasti za period 1995-99 g.g. [Orlovskaia oblast'] Available online at: http://www.valley.ru/~san/gdp1.htm

Pervysheva, E., & Gorshkova, I. (1999). Otnoshenie naseleniia k immunizatsii protiv difterii. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 5, 99-104.

Popov, V., & Kondrat'eva, O. (1998). Narkotizatsiia v Rossii -- Shag do natsional'noi katastrofy. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 8, 65-68.

Pri odinakovoe rozhdaemosti v Rossii delaiut v 15 raz bol'she abortov na 100 rodov chem v Germanii. (2001, January 14-20). Demoscop Weekly, 3. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Prozhivina, N. (1998). Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie detei v samarskoi oblasti. Voprosy statistiki, 4, 58-62.

Rakhmaninova, M., & Varshavskaia, N. (1998). O migratsionnoi situatsii v Rossii. Voprosy statistiki, 10, 78-81.

Reshetnikova, O. (2001, February 6). Labirinty optimizatsii zdorov'ia. Shkol'nyi psikholog.

Revich, B., & Bykov, A. (1997). Zagriaznenie vozdukha kak faktor smertnosti v gorodakh Rossii. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 22. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Rodin, V. (1998). O sostoianii okruzhaiushchei sredy v rossiiskoi federatsii. Voprosy statistiki, 10, 72-77.

Rossiia: Epidsituatsiia po VICh/SPIDu prodolzhaet ukhudshat'sa. (2000, September 4). Moscow: Rossiiskii federal'nyi tsentr po profilaktike i bor'be so SPIDom. Available online at: http://subscribe.ru/archive/science.health.sef/200009/26010517.html

Rossiiskii statisticheskii ezhegodnik. (1999). Moscow: Goskomstat Rossii.

Russian food expert hits at poor national diet. (2000). ITAR-TASS bulletin dated 12/8/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4677, 9 December 2000.

Russian health care in crisis. (2000). Kennan Insatitute for Advanced Russian Studies -- Report, 18(4).

Russia's health care emergency. (2001, January 2). New York Times [National Edition], p. A18.

Sagradov, A. (2000). Rossiia i indeks chelovecheskogo razvitiia. Naselenie i obshchestvo, 43. Available online at: http://demoscope.ru

Shkol'nikov, V. (1997). Zdorov'e naseleniia Rossii. Voprosy statistiki, 3, 68-75.

Siun'kova, G. (2000, January 18). Paradoksy opeki. Uchitel'skaia gazeta, 2, p. 7.

Slutskii, E. (1998). Besprizornost' v Rossii: Vnov' groznaia realnost'. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 3, 117-121.

Sobkin, V., Khlebnikova, M., & Gracheva, A. (n.d. [1998]). Nasilie i erotika na rossiiskom teleekrane: Opyt kontent-analiza televizionnykh transliatsii. Moscow: TsSO RAO.

Sobkin, V., & Kuznetsova, N. (1998). Rossiiskii podrostok 90-kh: Dvizhenie v zonu riska. Moscow: UNESCO, Minobrazovanie RF, TsSO RAO.

Sobkin, V., & Marich, E. (2000). Vospitatel' detskogo sada: Zhiznennye tsennosti i professional'nye orientatsii. Moscow: TsSO RAO.

Sostoianie zdorov'ia naseleniia i ekologicheskaia obstanovka. (1996). Iaroslavl': Analiticheskii tsentr. Available online at: http://www.nns.ru/provintsii/yarosl5/yarmy23.html

Sostoianie zdorov'ia naseleniia Tomskoi oblasti. (1998). Available online at: http://www.green.tsu.ru/obzor/98/10_1.htm

Sotsial'noe polozhenie i uroven' zhizni naseleniia Rossii, 1998. (1998). Moscow: Goskomstat.

The progress of nations. New York: UNICEF, 2000.

Vachkov, I. (2001). I snova o zdorov'e shkol'nikov. Shkolnyi psikholog, 5.

Vasil'ev, A. (1998, February 26). O nashem budushchem. Guberniia, 9(90). Available online at: http://www.karelia.ru/Karelia/NewsPapers/Guberniia/90/90_0.html

Volkova, N., Korotnev, V., & Fedotova, M. (1999). Proforientatsiia sel'skikh shkol'nikov. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia, 8, 94-97.

Vologodskaia oblast'. Zdorov'e 21. AVailable online at: http://www.vologda.ru/~avo/Rus/Events/Health.htm

Voloshin, V. Pomogite pediatram material'no. (2000, 4 February). Vesti.ru/Zdorov'e. Available online at: http://vesti.ru/health/2000/02/04/pediatr/

Weir, F. (2000). Russia's schools struggle to find a fresh slate. Christian Science Monitor bulletin dated 9/1/00, circulated on Johnson's Russia List #4486, 1 September 2000.

Wines, M., & Zuger, A. (2000, December 4). In Russia, the ill and infirm include health care itself. New York Times [National Edition], p. A1

Young people in changing societies: A summary. (2000). Florence, Italy: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre.

Zbarskaia, I. (2000). Demograficheskaia situatsiia v Rossii na poroge XXI veka i neobkhodimost' perepisi naseleniia. Voprosy statistiki, 4, 5-8.

Zebolov, N., & Bondarenko, G. (1999). Chernobyl'skaia avariia i demograficheskie problemy v brianskoi oblasti. Voprosy statistiki, 10, 48-52.

Zharova, L. (1999). Sostoianie obrazovaniia v rossiiskoi federatsii. Voprosy statistiki, 1, 55-59.

Zuger, A. Russia has few weapons as infectious diseases surge. (2000, December 5). New York Times [National edition], p. D1.