Gauge Predictions for Test Data

Supplementary results to accompany the paper
  Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Tsunami Forecasting from Sparse Observations
  by C.M. Liu, D. Rim, R. Baraldi, and R.J. LeVeque, Pure Appl. Geophys. (2021), DOI 10.1007/s00024-021-02841-9

See also the more recent paper
  Tsunami Early Warning from Global Navigation Satellite System Data using Convolutional Neural Networks
by D. Rim et al. for a different approach to forecasting using the same fakequakes as training data.

Shown below are the slip and seafloor displacements for each fakequakes realization used as test data, along with the predicted gauge results at gauges 901 (in Discovery Bay) and 911 (in Admiralty Inlet), based on observed data at gauge 702 (at the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca) over a short time period (30 or 60 minutes). A prediction of the tsunami at gauge 702 at later times is also generated. Please see the paper for more discussion of the data and the methods used.

The paper shows sample results for realization #1127 of a CSZ earthquake. Here we show the corresponding results for all 193 realizations from the test set (a subset of the 1300 fakequakes realizations discussed in the paper).

Note that these are listed with roughly increasing moment magnitudes Mw based on the way they were generated, and the y-axes on the time series of surface water elevation (in meters) is scaled differently based on the maximum amplitude of each tsunami. Some smaller events gave tsunamis of less than a meter amplitude, while some of the larger events had amplitudes close to 10 meters. Keep this in mind when assessing the accuracy of the predictions.

In each case we show predictions made with the denoising autoencoder (DAE) first and then those made with the variational autoencoder (VAE). The plots on the left show predictions made using only 30 minutes of observed data at Gauge 702, while the plots on the right show the predictions based on 60 minutes of observed data.

Non-KL Test Sources

Before showing the fakequake predictions, we first show the predictions for the four additional sources that were used to test the models (ones that were not generated by the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion used by fakequakes).

Source L1

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Source wang1700

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Source S-A-Whole

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Source B-Whole

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

fakequakes (KL expansion) Test Sources

Realization 5:   Mw 7.92

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 15:   Mw 8.06

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 26:   Mw 8.05

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 30:   Mw 8.09

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 31:   Mw 8.08

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 43:   Mw 7.94

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 44:   Mw 7.83

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 68:   Mw 7.91

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 141:   Mw 8.29

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 149:   Mw 8.16

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 173:   Mw 8.03

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 188:   Mw 8.08

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 189:   Mw 8.10

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 200:   Mw 8.39

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 210:   Mw 8.14

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 224:   Mw 8.27

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 258:   Mw 8.03

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 265:   Mw 8.09

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 266:   Mw 8.06

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 277:   Mw 8.27

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 281:   Mw 8.33

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 287:   Mw 8.08

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 288:   Mw 8.15

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 295:   Mw 8.11

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 302:   Mw 8.36

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 310:   Mw 8.40

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 312:   Mw 8.11

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 322:   Mw 8.26

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 324:   Mw 8.20

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 336:   Mw 8.26

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 344:   Mw 8.27

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 347:   Mw 8.32

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 350:   Mw 8.34

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 366:   Mw 8.31

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 375:   Mw 8.47

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 379:   Mw 8.48

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 387:   Mw 8.16

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 392:   Mw 8.31

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 400:   Mw 8.41

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 406:   Mw 8.46

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 434:   Mw 8.47

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 449:   Mw 8.56

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 473:   Mw 8.36

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 478:   Mw 8.27

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 480:   Mw 8.41

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 487:   Mw 8.53

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 491:   Mw 8.43

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 501:   Mw 8.50

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 506:   Mw 8.54

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 507:   Mw 8.57

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 528:   Mw 8.53

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 529:   Mw 8.57

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 538:   Mw 8.42

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 544:   Mw 8.82

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 550:   Mw 8.61

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 551:   Mw 8.47

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 555:   Mw 8.44

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 558:   Mw 8.68

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 572:   Mw 8.62

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 574:   Mw 8.19

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 584:   Mw 8.32

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 587:   Mw 8.70

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 596:   Mw 8.44

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 601:   Mw 8.75

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 602:   Mw 8.62

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 604:   Mw 8.41

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 605:   Mw 8.52

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 608:   Mw 8.62

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 611:   Mw 8.57

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 615:   Mw 8.59

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 619:   Mw 8.56

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 622:   Mw 8.64

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 632:   Mw 8.60

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 640:   Mw 8.49

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 642:   Mw 8.68

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 645:   Mw 8.34

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 649:   Mw 8.85

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 650:   Mw 8.38

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 651:   Mw 8.64

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 660:   Mw 8.55

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 664:   Mw 8.45

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 671:   Mw 8.52

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 686:   Mw 8.74

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 704:   Mw 8.64

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 722:   Mw 8.85

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 740:   Mw 8.65

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 742:   Mw 8.90

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 743:   Mw 8.54

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 745:   Mw 8.70

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 746:   Mw 8.82

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 752:   Mw 8.68

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 753:   Mw 8.52

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 754:   Mw 8.64

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 755:   Mw 8.51

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 762:   Mw 8.66

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 763:   Mw 8.65

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 778:   Mw 8.50

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 779:   Mw 8.59

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 784:   Mw 8.57

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 785:   Mw 8.50

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 789:   Mw 8.70

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 791:   Mw 8.73

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 798:   Mw 8.59

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 799:   Mw 8.77

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 807:   Mw 8.81

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 821:   Mw 8.63

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 827:   Mw 8.87

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 833:   Mw 8.71

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 834:   Mw 8.65

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 835:   Mw 8.72

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 868:   Mw 8.74

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 871:   Mw 8.89

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 878:   Mw 8.82

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 896:   Mw 8.86

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 898:   Mw 8.82

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 900:   Mw 8.94

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 902:   Mw 9.05

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 908:   Mw 8.87

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 909:   Mw 8.78

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 911:   Mw 8.69

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 919:   Mw 8.73

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 920:   Mw 8.89

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 921:   Mw 8.85

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 922:   Mw 8.81

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 923:   Mw 8.88

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 925:   Mw 9.08

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 926:   Mw 8.98

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 930:   Mw 9.04

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 936:   Mw 8.86

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 942:   Mw 9.06

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 943:   Mw 9.19

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 944:   Mw 8.91

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 947:   Mw 8.92

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 948:   Mw 8.74

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 951:   Mw 8.71

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 953:   Mw 8.85

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 954:   Mw 8.89

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 955:   Mw 8.84

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 958:   Mw 8.85

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 969:   Mw 8.90

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 977:   Mw 8.98

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 986:   Mw 8.83

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 989:   Mw 8.70

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 991:   Mw 8.78

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 996:   Mw 8.85

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1001:   Mw 8.99

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1014:   Mw 8.88

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1019:   Mw 8.92

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1027:   Mw 8.90

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1038:   Mw 8.97

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1050:   Mw 8.73

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1053:   Mw 9.00

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1064:   Mw 8.88

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1065:   Mw 8.84

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1070:   Mw 8.90

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1072:   Mw 9.08

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1074:   Mw 8.87

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1082:   Mw 9.06

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1083:   Mw 8.93

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1084:   Mw 9.08

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1086:   Mw 8.87

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1100:   Mw 8.86

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1104:   Mw 9.04

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1108:   Mw 9.05

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1123:   Mw 8.90

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1127:   Mw 8.88

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1130:   Mw 8.86

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1138:   Mw 9.07

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1143:   Mw 9.18

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1144:   Mw 9.03

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1166:   Mw 8.96

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1169:   Mw 8.93

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1171:   Mw 8.90

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1174:   Mw 9.06

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1175:   Mw 8.99

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1179:   Mw 9.11

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1181:   Mw 8.84

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1185:   Mw 9.18

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1194:   Mw 9.16

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1198:   Mw 9.01

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1205:   Mw 9.11

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1208:   Mw 9.14

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1221:   Mw 9.33

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1234:   Mw 9.02

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1239:   Mw 9.04

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1260:   Mw 9.13

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1268:   Mw 9.15

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1274:   Mw 9.19

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1275:   Mw 9.12

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1277:   Mw 9.24

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1283:   Mw 9.10

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast:

Realization 1297:   Mw 9.05

DAE forecast:

VAE forecast: