Integrated Urban Models

URBDP 530/CETS 588A

Spring 2001

Prof. Paul Waddell

Time: 3:00-4:20 TTh Office: Parrington 209A
Room: Mary Gates Hall 251 Phone: 221-4161

Email: pwaddell@u.washington.edu

Office Hours: T Th 4:30-5:30

Course Web Site: http://faculty.washintgon.edu/pwaddell/Models/Urban_Models_Syllabus.htm


Overview

This course introduces students to the evolving use of computerized models of urban land use, transportation and environment in the development of plans and policies. The course focuses on the metropolitan planning context for these models, reviews the state of the practice, and examines emerging directions for these analytical tools. The structure of the course is designed to involve students in active research projects at the UW on the design, development and testing of new land use, transportation, and environmental models:

  1. The UrbanSim project has developed an operational urban simulation system over the past few years with funding from the National Science Foundation and other sources, and is being distributed via the Internet (www.urbansim.org). Current activities on this project include creating a graphical user interface to operate the model, creating a set of visualization tools to explore simulation results, and developing a data integration system to prepare data for applying the model in other locations. The model has been applied in Eugene-Springfield, Oregon, Salt Lake City, Utah, and Honolulu, Hawaii. Work on validation and sensitivity testing of the model using the Eugene-Springfield application will be one of the areas of active research during the spring quarter.

  2. The University of Washington PRISM project (www.prism.washington.edu) is a large-scale long-term research collaboration created by the University Initiative Fund, which seeks to link urban and environmental models throughout the Cascade region. UrbanSim is being extended in this project to link to environmental processes, by adding model components that address land cover change, water demand, and nutrient emissions, in addition to respecifying the real estate development component of UrbanSim.

  3. The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) uses models in developing the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, evaluating major transportation policy alternatives such as congestion pricing, and reviewing local comprehensive plans for consistency with the Growth Management Act requirements. The University of Washington is working with Cambridge Systematics, Inc. and the University of Texas, under a grant from the PSRC to document and validate their existing models, and to design their next generation of integrated land use and transportation models (www.depts.washington.edu/model).

A review of the state of the practice will cover the four-step travel model system and the DRAM/EMPAL land use model used by the PSRC and other Metropolitan Planning Organizations in the U.S. The balance of the course will focus on new and emerging models and approaches, and on the model development process.

Course Objectives

The course has three objectives:

  1. To develop an understanding of the planning and policy context for land use and transportation modeling, and emerging demands on the use of these models.
  2. To develop familiarity with the state of the practice in land use and transportation modeling, and with the limitations of current approaches.
  3. To develop familiarity with the process of model development, and with emerging models and methods.

Readings

A set of readings has been linked to the course web page. Additional readings will be distributed in class or made available on library reserve.

Course Requirements

Students are expected to read the course materials, actively participate in class discussion, complete class assignments, and develop a term project. It is anticipated that students will vary in their level of background, skills and interests, so the assignments and projects are designed accordingly.

Assignments

There will be four class assignments, designed to familiarize students with different aspects of the course material, and to involve them in active research on model development.

Assignment 1: User testing of the Installation and use of the new Graphical User Interface for UrbanSim:

Install UrbanSim from the web (http://www.urbansim.org/beta/install.html) on a computer, and run the default scenario. Use the draft online help for installating and running the model. Create a new scenario by changing the constraints on development and running the model again. Examine the model results. Document any difficulties you encountered and recommendations on refining the user interface in a short memo. Due April 3.

Assignment 2: Review of an Operational Model

Select a model from those reviewed in the EPA report (but not one reviewed in the TCRP H-12 report), and write a short evaluation of the model, using the same classification framework found in the TCRP H-12 report. Due April 10.

Assignment 3: Sensitivity Testing of Eugene-Springfield Application of UrbanSim Model

Using the Eugene-Springfield application of the UrbanSim model, a set of sensitivity tests will be developed and allocated as assignments. Tests should be run and documented by comparing alternatives to a base scenario and documenting significant differences in a short memo. Due April 26.

Assignment 4: Value Sensitive Design

Details of assignment TBA.

Projects

Depending on student background, skills and interests, one of the following approaches to a term project may be selected, or an alternative project may be defined in consultation with the instructor.

  1. For students with expertise in discrete choice modeling (equivalent of CEE 585, Analytical Methods in Transportation II), a project may be organized around the specification and testing of a discrete choice model related to household choices of residence, workplace, and auto ownership, using available data for one or more metropolitan areas (alternative applications may be explored).

  2. For students with substantial expertise or interest in GIS and data analysis (equivalent of URBDP 422, Urban and Regional Geo-spatial Analysis), a project may be organized around the ongoing development of a software system to integrate data for land use and transportation modeling. The software is being designed and implemented by the UrbanSim programming team, but user input and feedback is needed to shape the components and tools.

  3. For students interested in policy applications and evaluation of alternative policies, a project may be organized around the development of a design for an scenario evaluation component that would involve specification of indicators using outputs from the UrbanSim model system, to support cost-benefit analysis and least cost planning, and other forms of evaluation of competing stakeholder values and priorities.

Schedule

Part I: Introduction to Integrated Urban Models

March 27: The Context for Integrated Urban Models

Lecture 1 Powerpoint Presentation

Readings:

Miller, E., D. Kriger, and J.D. Hunt. 1998. Integrated Urban Models for Simulation
of Transit and Land Use Policies. TCRP Web Document 9. Final Report, TCRP Project H-12.
(Chapters 1-2 )

Waddell, P. 2001. Analytical Tools for Land Use, Transportation, and Growth Management

Additional Resources:

Beimborn, E. 1995. A Transportation Modeling Primer. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

March 29: Approaches to Integrated Urban Modeling

Lecture 2 Powerpoint Presentation

Readings:

In addition to laying out a conceptual framework for integrating urban and environmental modeling, this paper provides a current review of urban modeling approaches:

Alberti, M. 1999. Modeling the Urban Ecosystem A Conceptual Framework. Environment and Planning B.

Additional Resources:

Highly recommended reading over next few weeks, for those lacking familiarity with discrete choice modeling techniques such as multinomial and nested logit models:

KPMG LLP, F. Koppelman and C. Bhat. 2000. A Self Instructing Course in Mode Choice Modeling

April 3: Design Issues for Integrated Urban Models

Lecture 3 Powerpoint Presentation

Readings:

Miller, E., D. Kriger, and J.D. Hunt. 1998. Integrated Urban Models for Simulation
of Transit and Land Use Policies. TCRP Web Document 9. Final Report, TCRP Project H-12.
(Chapter 4)

Part II: Operational Urban Models

April 5: Review of Operational Models

Lecture 4 Powerpoint Presentation

Compilation of Model Reviews by Students (Assignment 2)

Readings:

Miller, E., D. Kriger, and J.D. Hunt. 1998. Integrated Urban Models for Simulation
of Transit and Land Use Policies. TCRP Web Document 9. Final Report, TCRP Project H-12
. (Chapter 5)

Dowling, R., R. Ireson, A. Skabardonis, D. Gillen, P. Stopher, A. Horowitz, J. Bowman, E. Deakin, and R. Dulla. 2000, Predicting SHort-Term and Long-Term Air Quality Effects of Traffic Flow Improvement Projects. Interim Report and Phase II Work Plan. NCHRP Project 25-21. (Chapter 6)

Other Resources:

U.S. EPA, 2000. Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns. EPA/600/R-00/098. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Cincinnati, OH. 260 pp.

Southworth, F. 1995. A Technical Review of Urban Land Use--Transportation Models as Tools for Evaluating Vehicle Travel Reduction Strategies. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Report ORNL-6881. Prepared for the the Office of Environmental Analysis and Sustainable Development, U. S. Department of Energy.

Oryani, K. and B. Harris. 1996. Enhancement of DVRPC's Travel Simulation Models. Task 12: Review of Land Use Models and Recommended Model for DVRPC. University of Pennsylvania.

Porter, C., L. Melendy, and E. Deakin. 1995. Land Use and Travel Survey Data: A Survey of the Metropolitan Planning Organizations of the 35 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas. University of California, Berkeley.

April 10: Overview of The Puget Sound Regional Council Model System

Guest: Larry Blain, Puget Sound Regional Council

Lecture 5 Powerpoint Presentation

Readings:

Cambridge Systematics, Inc., University of Washington and Urban Analytics. 2000. Draft Report: Land Use and Travel Demand Forecasting Model Documentation. (advice: it's long, just skim)

April 12: The UrbanSim Model System

Lecture 6 Powerpoint Presentation

Readings:

Waddell, P., A. Borning, M. Noth, N. Freier, M. Becke, and G. Ulfarsson. 2001. UrbanSim: A Simulation System for Land Use and Transportation. Submitted for publication, March 2001.

April 17: Validation of the Puget Sound Regional Council Travel Demand Models

Guest: Firouzeh Nourzad, Urban Analytics

Lecture 7 Powerpoint Presentation

Readings:

Cambridge Systematics, Inc. and Urban Analytics. 2001. Draft Report on Tasks 2 and 3: Validation of PSRC Travel Demand Models.

April 19: UrbanSim Longitudinal Analysis and Sensitivity Testing

Readings: TBA

April 24: Software Architecture for Urban Simulation

Guest: Alan Borning

Readings:

Noth, M., A. Borning and P. Waddell. 2000. An Extensible, Modular Architecture for Simulating Urban Development, Transportation, and Environmental Impacts. UW CSE Technical Report 2000-12-01.

Part III: Designing the Next Generation Integrated Urban Model

April 26: Design Process for Next Generation Puget Sound Regional Council Models

Readings:

Waddell, P. et al. 2001. Recommendations for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Section 1

May 1: Model Design Process: Value-Sensitive Design Perspective

Guest: Batya Friedman

Millett, L., Friedman, B., & Felten, E. (in press). Cookies and Web browser design: Toward realizing informed consent online. CHI 2001 Proceedings of the Conference on Human Factors in Computer Systems. New York: Association for Computing Machinery. UW-CSE Technical Report (00-12-3).

Friedman, B. and Kahn, P. H., Jr. (in press). A Value-Sensitive Design approach to augmented reality. In W. Mackay (Ed.), Design of Augmented Reality Environments. The MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.


Video of seminar presentation in Computer Science and Engineering:

http://www.cs.washington.edu/htbin-post/unrestricted/news/colloq/on_demand/index.cgi

May 3: Representational Issues

Readings:

Waddell, P. et al. 2001. Recommendations for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Section 2.1-2.2

May 8: Methods to Address Complexity, Uncertainty and Spatial Patterns

Guest: Mark Handcock

Readings: TBA

May 10: The Macroeconomy and Demographic Processes

Readings:

Rey, S. (forthcoming) Integrated Regional Econometric+Input-Output Modeling: Issues and Opportunities. Papers in Regional Science.

May 15: Household Choices: Housing, Labor and Vehicle Ownership

Readings:

Waddell, P. et al. 2001. Recommendations for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Sections 1-2

May 17: Household Choices: Daily Activity and Travel

Guest: Maren Outwater

Readings:

Waddell, P. et al. 2001. Recommendations for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Sections 2.4

May 22: Business Choices: Size and Location

Readings:

Draft PSRC Model Design

May 24: Developer Choices: New Development and Redevelopment

Readings:

Draft PSRC Model Design

May 29: Land Cover Change and Environmental Impacts

Guest: Marina Alberti

Readings: TBA

May 31: Data, Software, Visualization, and Evaluation

Readings:

Draft PSRC Model Design