Ellis Krauss and Robert Pekkanen in front of the National Diet Building, Tokyo, Japan

The authors prepare for a presentation at Stanford,          August 2005.

Politicians like Hirasawa Katsuei (Tokyo 17th) still earned votes the hard way for September 11, 2005's House of Representatives Election.

Even when it rained.

The "senkyo kaa" remains a well-used campaign device, even in rural areas. This shot from the 2005 House of Representatives election.

 Young supporter at Koizumi rally, Sept. 10th, 2005

I’ve also been fortunate to have Ellis Krauss of the University of California San Diego as my partner in a multi-year investigation of how political parties adapt to changes in electoral systems. Our research strategies combine qualitative and quantitative methods.

On the qualitative side, I have conducted dozens of interviews with Japanese politicians and party officials, including more than 50 Diet Members and several former Prime Ministers, Ministers and top party officials. I also spent time on the campaign trail myself, shadowing Diet Members during the campaigns in 2003 (Lower House), 2004 (Upper House) and 2005 (Lower House) in Tokyo and in several other locations on and off Honshu.

Ellis and I have also developed the Japan Legislative Organization (J-LOD) Database. We painstakingly created a database of party, Diet, and government posts from 1980 to 2005.  Most posts are shuffled annually, in order to “spread the wealth” of serving in leadership positions around to as many party members as possible, necessitating that the dataset cover not simply the posts assumed after each general election, but also following subsequent cabinet and leadership reshuffles.  The database includes all LDP and DPJ politicians. Since the unit of observation is thus the Diet Member-Year for all Diet Members over an extended period, the number of observations is in the thousands.

September 10th, 2005: (L-->R) Jun'ichiro Koizumi, Martha Leche, Ellis Krauss, Robert Pekkanen

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L E G I S L A T I V E    O R G A N I Z A T I O N :  J A P A N

We have planned a series of articles utilizing this database to investigate and illuminate issues in party politics. And, we have already published the first paper to make use of this database (co-authored with our colleague Ben Nyblade of University of British Columbia). This paper appeared in the American Political Science Review (APSR) in May 2006.

2006. Pekkanen, Robert, Benjamin Nyblade and Ellis S. Krauss. "Electoral Incentives in Mixed Member Systems: Party, Posts, and Zombie Politicians in Japan." American Political Science Review. 100 (2) May, 183-193.

Here’s the abstract.

Abstract:

Abstract in Japanese: 論文要旨

選挙のインセンティヴは立法組織にどのような影響を与えるのだろうか。日本の小選挙比例代表並立制の分析を通して、我々は、立法組織は個々の議員による再選のインセンティヴだけでなく、所属政党が政権を獲得することや党として強固なレーベル評判を維持することへの議員の利益からも、強い影響を受けることを示す。選挙基盤の弱い議員には、得票の増大が見込める立法ポストが与えられ、一方明らかに党のリーダー（あるいはリーダー候補）は、党全体の評判により大きな影響を与えるポストに就任している。また、比例代表選出議員と小選挙区選出議員は、それぞれの異なる選挙インセンティヴを反映して、異なるタイプのポストに就いている。選出方法の小さな違いでさえ、立法組織に大きな影響を及ぼしうるのである。ドイツの復活当選可能な併用制と異なり、（惜敗率に基づき小選挙区で敗れた候補者が比例代表で復活当選できる条項を有する）日本の並立制は、政党に対して、比例代表選出議員を個人限定の財の分配に関わるポストに配置するようなインセンティヴを与えている。

 A Japanese version of this article appears as 

2008. "小選挙区比例代表並立制と役職配分” in日本の民主主義 変わる政治、変わる政治学  edited by Sone Yasunori and Oyama Kosuke. Tokyo: Keio University Press, 2008. (in Japanese)

Another publication from this project looks at changes in the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. The APSR publication focuses on issues of legislative organization, but this Journal of Japanese Studies article examines party organization.

  2004. “Explaining Party Adaptation to Electoral Reform: The Discreet Charm of the LDP?” Ellis Krauss and Robert Pekkanen. Journal of Japanese Studies Vol. 30, No. 1 (Winter 2004)

Abstract:
This article traces the effects of Japan's 1994 electoral reform on Japan's governing party, the LDP. Factions have lost their central role in nominating candidates and deciding the party presidency but remain important in allocating party and Diet posts. Unexpectedly, koenkai have grown stronger because they perform new functions. PARC remains important but diminished by the enhanced policymaking role of party leaders in the coalition government. A central theme is unpredicted organizational adaptation—"embedded choice"—since 1994. We speculate on how this flexibility of the LDP, adapting old organizational forms to new incentives, its "discreet charm," may affect Japanese politics and the LDP's potential longevity in power.

Ellis and I are also co-authors on an article in British Journal of Political Science with a Ph.D. student at UCSD, Kuniaki Nemoto. The article is entitled "Policy Dissension and Party Discipline: The July 2005 Vote on Postal Privatization in Japan." As the title implies, it is a study of party discipline. This article also uses the Japanese Legislative Organization Database.

  2008. "Policy Dissension and Party Discipline: The July 2005 Vote on Postal Privatization in Japan." Kuniaki Nemoto, Ellis Krauss and Robert Pekkanen. British Journal of Political Science 38 (3) July: 499-525.

Abstract:

This article examines party discipline and party cohesion or defection, offering as an illustration the rebellion over postal privatization in 2005 by members of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). We explore the importance of party rules – especially the seniority rule and policy specialization for district rewards – as intervening variables between election rules and party defection in a decentralized and diverse party.   We argue that in such cases, party rules like seniority can help prevent defection. When these rules are changed, as in the postal case of 2005, defection is more probable, but we find that the relationship between defection and seniority is likely to be curvilinear.   We also find that the curvilinearity is conditional upon each legislator's having different incentives for vote, policy and office.

Abstract in Japanese: 論文要旨

Ellis and I also wrote a paper on the influence of party politics in determining Japan's security policies. The paper is entitled "Japan's 'Coalition of the Willing' on Security Policies." The paper appears in the journal Orbis in Summer 2005 (Volume 49, Number 3).  Click here for the Orbis website homepage.

  2005. "Japan's 'Coalition of the Willing' on Security Policies." Robert Pekkanen and Ellis Krauss. Orbis. Summer, 49:3.

The paper abstract is here:

Abstract:

Japan’s security policy has changed dramatically. Japan’s contribution to the US-led Gulf War in 1991 was widely deemed inadequate because it was “merely” money ($13 billion), yet, even with tenuous UN authorization, there are 1,000 pairs of Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) “boots on the ground” in Iraq today.  Structural variables such as the end of the Cold War and institutional variables such as the increase in the policy-making power of the Prime Minister tell only part of the story. An examination of several recent cases of change in Japanese security policy demonstrates that party politics also matters. We investigate the cases of Anti-Terror Legislation of 2002, the Emergency Measure Laws of 2003, the dispatch of SDF troops to Iraq in 2004, and possible Constitutional Revision in 2005. Unlike the old “’55 system,” Japanese party politics today is characterized not by ideological polarization and one party dominance, but by ideological dispersion and coalition governments. Shifting alliances within and among parties determine how policy changes.

Pekkanen on "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer"

Related to security policy, I also appeared to discuss Japan-China relations on April 22, 2005 on the "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer" program on PBS television. The title of the segment is "Japan-China Tensions" and the video can be viewed on the PBS website. The NewsHour website has a "Search for NewsHour Video" page, and entering the Keyword "Pekkanen" will find the video immediately. Entering the Keyword "Japan" only brings up about a dozen videos. The link is here:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/index.html

I appeared on the local NPR station KUOW program "Weekday" on May 25th, 2005 9-10 AM to discuss US-China-Japan relations with the host and Professor David Bachman of the University of Washington. The link to the program is here.

See also a July 28th, 2005 article in The Washington Times linked here.

And, even though it is only tangentially related to security, a fascinating Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force TV recruiting ad is linked here.

For a link to Ellis Krauss’s home page, click here. There's also a very good interview with Ellis by Robert Angel of the University of South Carolina on Professor Angel's website. The direct link to the interview is here.

Ellis Krauss and friend. Photo by Robert Pekkanen.

 If you are interested, see also my research on political parties and legislative organization outside of Japan. 

 O L I T I  S--> Comparative Political Parties and Legislative Organization <--

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