Nives Dolšak, Daniel Jaffe, and Lyatt Jaegle. “Trans-Pacific Air Pollution and NAAQS Attainment: Domestic and International Policy Options” Presented at the Fall Annual Meeting of the AGU, San Francisco, December 2002.

ABSTRACT:

Observational data and models of global air pollution increasingly indicate that Asian air pollution caused by fossil fuel burning is transported across the Pacific, thereby affecting local air quality in the United States. This may have policy ramifications for a number of counties in the U.S. struggling to meet the NAAQS. This problem will be exacerbated as the EPA tightens the standards for Ozone. As the new 8-hour, 80 ppb ozone standards are implemented, the number of counties considered to be in non-attainment for ozone is estimated to double. State Implementation Plans that rely only on local emission reductions may not be enough to meet the new NAAQS if a considerable proportion of the background concentrations come from Asia or other distant sources. Further, reducing emissions locally may not be the most cost-effective way of meeting the new EPA standards.

This presentation draws on observational data in the western U.S. and global models, such as GEOS-CHEM, to examine the significance of trans-pacific pollution (background pollution as well as episodic impacts) to air quality in the Western United States in their attempts to meet the new NAAQS for Ozone and Particulate Matter. The size of Asian economies, their reliance on fossil fuels, and their rapid industrialization suggests that the importance of trans-pacific air pollution will increase. This presentation examines policy implications of Asian emissions under three of the IPCC future emission scenarios. We examine the potential for reducing local concentrations by devising policy instruments for reducing emissions where they can be reduced at a lower cost. For this work, we draw on policy experience from regional air pollution in the European Union and evaluate options for devising policy instruments within the institutional framework of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation.