Methods And Nuclear Power Applications

Norman J. McCormick
Department of Nuclear Engineering
University of Washington
Seattle, Washington

Contents

Preface

xi

CHAPTER 1

	Introduction	1
1-1	Why Study Risk Analysis?	1
1-2	An Overview of Risk Analysis	2
	General References	6

PART 1
METHODS

CHAPTER 2

	Probability Concepts	11
2-1	Interpretations and Laws of Probability	11
2-2	The Bayes Equation	16
2-3	Probability Distribution Functions	20
2-4	Probability Concepts for Failure Analyses	21
	Exercises	28
	References	29

CHAPTER 3

	Probability Distributions for Describing Failures	30
3-1	Discrete Distributions	30
3-2	Continuous Distributions	34
3-3	Synthesized Distributions	46
3-4	Extreme-Value Distributions	50
	Exercises	54
	References	57

CHAPTER 4

	Data Manipulation Concepts	58
4-1	Curve Fitting of Data	58
4-2	Introduction to Estimation Theory	65
4-3	Point Estimates for Continuous Dostributions	68
	Exercises	76
	References	77

CHAPTER 5

	Failure Data	79
5-1	Introduction	79
5-2	Sources of Failure Data	80
5-3	Examples of Failure Data for Hardware	84
5-4	Examples of Failure Data for Human Error	85
5-5	Common Cause and Common Mode Failures	88
	References	90

CHAPTER 6

	Reliability of Simple Systems	91
6-1	System Reliability for Series and Active-Parallel Units	91
6-2	System Reliability for Sequentially Operating Units	96
6-3	System Reliability as Derived by the Decomposition Method	98
6-4	Reliability Obtained Using a Signal Flow Graph	103
6-5	Cut-Set Method for Determining Reliability	105
6-6	Systems with Common Cause Failures	110
	Exercises	111
	References	116

CHAPTER 7

	Reliability and Availability of Systems with Repair	117
7-1	Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability	117
7-2	Periodic Maintenance	118
7-3	Introduction to Markov Models	120
7-4	Markov Models for Systems	127
7-5	Time-Dependent Availablity and Reliability	136
7-6	Time-Dependent Unavailabity for Rare Failures	142
7-7	Steady-State Availability	144
7-8	Mean Time to Failure	145
7-9	Models for Common Cause Failures	147
7-10	Other Analysis Techniques	149
	Exercises	150
	References	152

CHAPTER 8

	Fault Tree Analysis	154
8-1	Introduction	154
8-2	Fault Tree Construction	157
8-3	Fault Tree Evaluation	162
8-4	Examples of Simple Fault Trees	166
8-5	Light Water Reactor Trip System Fault Trees	175
8-6	Light Water Reactor Safety Fault Trees	179
8-7	Spent Nuclear Fuel Truck Transport Fault Trees	184
8-8	Geologic Waste Disposal Fault Trees	184
	Exercises	185
	References	189

CHAPTER 9

	Event Tree Analysis	190
9-1	Event Tree Construction	190
9-2	Event Trees for Reactor Safety Analysis	193
9-3	Event Trees for Safeguards Analysis	207
	Exercises	211
	References	213

CHAPTER 10

	Computer Programs for Fault Tree Analysis	214
10-1	Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluations	214
10-2	Fault Tree Analysis with Common Cause Failures	221
10-3	Analysis of Data Uncertainties in a Fault Tree	223
10-4	Automated Fault Tree Construction	226
	References	227

PART II
NUCLEAR POWER RISKS

CHAPTER 11

	Risks Concepts	231
11-1	Definition of Risk	231
11-2	Probabilistic Risk Assessment Prodecure	235
	Exercises	238
	References	238

CHAPTER 12

	Risks for Light Water Reactors	240
12-1	Introduction	240
12-2	Radioactive Inventory	241
12-3	Reactor Accidents	242
12-4	Methods for Consequence Analysis	245
12-5	Quantification of Radioactive Releases	251
12-6	Predicted Frequencies for Accident Sequences	259
12-7	Reactor Safety Study Findings	271
12-8	Limitations of the Reactor Safety Study	280
12-9	Critiques of the Reactor Safety Study	282
12-10	Follow-up Reactor Safety Studies	284
12-11	Three Mile Island Accident	286
	Exercises	286
	References	287

CHAPTER 13

	Risks for Liquid Metal Fast Breeder and High
	Temperature Gas Reactors	290
13-1	Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor	290
13-2	High Temperature Gas Reactor	300
	Exercises	303
	References	303

CHAPTER 14

	Risks for Nuclear Materials Transportation	305
14-1	Analysis Procedure	305
14-2	Spent Nuclear Fuel Tansport	306
14-3	Uranium Hexafluoride Transport	309
14-4	Plutonium Transport	310
14-5	Nuclear Wastes Transport	314
	Exercises	314
	References	315

CHAPTER 15

	Risks for Nuclear Waste Disposal	316
15-1	Risks from Preclosure Accidents	316
15-2	Introduction to Risks from Postclosure Accidents	316
15-3	Interim Storage	323
15-4	Permanent Waste Disposal	325
	Exercises	326
	References	327

PART III
OTHER RISK ASSESSMENTS

CHAPTER 16

	Comparison of Risks	331
16-1	Conventional Energy Sources	331
16-2	Conventional and Nonconventional Energy Sources	335
16-3	Canvey Island	343
16-4	Dams	347
16-5	Other Risks	349
	Exercises	353
	References	354

CHAPTER 17

	Risk-Benefit Assessments	355
17-1	Economic Considerations	355
17-2	Different Approaches	358
17-3	Cost-Benefit Analysis of PWR Engineered Safety Features	359
17-4	Cost-Benefit Analyses of Various Health and Safety Measures	363
	Exercises	365
	References	365

CHAPTER 18

	Risk Acceptance	367
18-1	Factors Affecting Risk Acceptance	367
18-2	Statistical Risk Acceptance Analyses	368
18-3	Psychometric Risk Acceptance Analyses	373
18-4	Perception of Risks	374
18-5	Criteria for Risk Acceptance	377
18-6	Pathways Toward Risk Acceptance	379
	Exercises	381
	References	381

CHAPTER 19

	Epilogue	383
	References	386

APPENDIXES

	APPENDIX A
	Some Useful Mathematical Functions	387
	APPENDIX B
	Failure Data	391
	APPENDIX C
	Some Matrix Mathematics	396
	APPENDIX D
	Failure Modes and Effects Analysis	398
	APPENDIX E
	Light Water Reactor Safety Systems	403
	APPENDIX F
	Additional Light Water Reactor Safety Study Fault Trees	414
	APPENDIX G
	The GO Method	421
	Answers to Selected Exercises	427
	INDEX	431