GLOBAL POPULATION ISSUES
Pop. & Energy = twin engines of environmental destruction
1960-90: World population doubled; energy use quadrupled.
1960's: U.S. pushed pop. control -- "Ntl. security": Cold War
1970's: "Population bomb" argument (Neo-Malthusian)
-- biologists alarmed; foresee envt'l collapse, starvatn.
-- depends on notion of carrying capacity (EX: petrie dish)
-- Growth near 2% today, 3% in Africa
Rule of 72
-- 2 choices: either reduce birth rate or increase death rate
>> Q: How to reduce birth rate?
Tied to econ. devt., women's rights, sustainability
N-S issue: Rampail's Camp of the Saints; Hardin's lifeboat ethics
-- Blaming pop. for ecol. destruction misses consumption issue
I. Why do ppl. have babies?
If we want to solve a prob., we have to understand its causes.
A. Irrational
1. Lack of celibacy (related issues: early marriage)
2. Cultural value of large families; women compelled
3. "Gift from God" -- not a rational choice
B. Rational
1. Need for econ. labor
a. "Primary producers' squeeze"
In econ. dependent upon primary production:
low prices >> inc. production & pop. >> prices fall
b. Urbanization >> loss of rural labor >> replace labor
2. Perception of opportunity (Abernethy: rosy econ. picture &
belief that trad. limits can be overcome >> inc. pop.
--counter to conv. wisdom that econ. growth lowers pop.
II. Basic demography
A. 2 major increases in fertility: ag. & indus. revols.
8000 B.C.: 8 million
1 A.D.: 300 million
1800: 1 billion
B. Demographic transition theory
High birth & death rates >> low birth & death rates
-- follows modernization; middle has high birth & low death
[Note: note environmentally benign]
[Show graphs]
1. Transition occurred from 1860 to 1960 in IC's.
C. Why has this not occurred in DCs?
1. Health improvements
Immunization, anti-malarial campaigns.
These were imported into DCs: tech. fixes not accompanied
by fundamental changes in socioeconomic structures.
2. Other rtl. & irrtl. reasons listed above
3. DCs historically had larger families that in pre-indus.
Europe (4-5). In Africa, 6-8 children was normal, wh.
sets stage for very rapid pop. inc. when mortality falls
Weiskel: Europe caused Africa's high birth rates: slave
trade, extractive econ., colonial warfare, epidemics
D. Responses
Trend: emphasis shifts w/ new knowledge about causes
1. 1960s: Spread condoms & pills
Q: Why didn't this work?
Tech. not enough: women need to make cs. choice
religious traditions, husband's preferences
2. 1970's: debates in women's movement
--many abuses: EX: Indonesia & E. Timor
--sterilization: food offered to hungry women
1974: 1st global pop. conf.: DCs resisted pop. control
3. 1980's: empower women through employment, literacy
1984: 2nd. UN pop. conf.: DCs accepted, Reagan opposed
4. 1990: state-sponsored programs in most DCs
1994: Cairo ICPD Conf. -- virtual unanimity
Stabilize pop. at 7.8 B, rather than 12.5 B, by 2050
Cost: $17B by 2000
E. Are we reaching the "demographic transition"?
Thailand: 8 births/ woman in 1960; 4 in 1986.
China: 3.6 in 1975; 2 in 1985.
Brazil: 5.7 in 1975; 3 in 1985.
Even sub-Saharan Africa: Kenya: 8.1 in 1977; 6.7 in 1989.
despite decline in std. of living.
Historically, once fertility declines, it continues to.
F. Is there a pop. problem? Some say no:
1. Question notion of carrying capacity
2. "Ppl. are a resource, not a form of pollution."
-- all life, even the most destitute, is worthwhile.
3. Pop. density is not related to economic welfare
Netherlands & Bangledesh have same pop. density, as do U.S. & Ethiopia
4. Capitalism is the solution
Julian Simon (Fortune Magazine): "It is time to abandon Malthusian theorizing for a theory that fits the facts: Growth of pop. & of income in cap'ist states creates shortages, which makes prices rise. A price increase represents an opportunity for entrepreneurs to seek new ways to satisfy the shortages. The final amazing result is that we end up better off than if the shortages had never arisen."
Also, "The labor market presents the best evidence against the idea that there is a population problem. The cost of labor is increasing, which suggests that there is a shortage, not an over-abundance of people in the world."
**Q: How many think pop. growth is a real prob.? Would one of you try to refute these claims?
Exercise: Replay Cairo, w/ reps. from U.S., China, India, Vatican, Thailand, Burundi.