Nuclear Weapons After the Cold War
Q: How many believe you are likely to die in a n. war?
-- Compare to 1982
I. Important nuclear weapons treaties today
A. ABM (1968): prohibits missile defenses
Why? Ensures mutual survivability of deterrent forces
>> increases stability
-- Scaled-down SDI still threatens
Note: Deterrence is abt. balance of power (realist).
B. INF (1987): eliminated intermediate-range n. forces
C. START II (1992): cuts both arsenals to approx. 3,000
-- Prob.: many of Russia's warheads are in Ukraine, Belarus
& Kazakhstan
D. NPT (1970, 1995): horizontal vs. vertical proliferation;
IAEA est'd. to promote peaceful n. tech. & limit spread of n.
weapons (somewhat contradictory)
--Superpowers never lived up to their side of bargain
1995 -- 3 options:
1) Let treaty die
2) Extend treaty indefinitely (position of nuclear powers)
3) Extend for a specific time period
**Show 20 mins. of "NPT: Dead at 25?" (made in 1994)
Q: What was the outcome?
-- Indefinite extension, but n. powers agreed to "exercise utmost
restraint in testing" (CTB expected in 1996)
Q: How wd. realist interpret NPT?
-- Like Antarctic Treaty, in superpower interests
Q: Grotians? --intl. law, mutual interests & interdep.
Q: Marxists? -- est'd. nuclear club
[Q: Feminists? (??) -- paternalistic; note that Atmospheric Test
Ban treaty was largely result of women's protests
[Q: Post-internationalist? (??) -- NGOs pushed for extension
II. Post-Cold War nuclear issues
A. Comprehensive Test Ban treaty (1996?)
1. Within days of NPT signing, China carried out test
2. French Pres. Chirac ended test moratorium,
announced 8 tests in S. Pacific -- outraged world
--Greenpeace sailed 2 boats to test site to Moruroa, called for
intl. flotilla >> NZ, Aus., Jap. ships + private boats
--Leaders of Tahitian independence movement, other indigenous
mvts. in French Polynesia on Rainbow Warrior
--Intl. boycott ag. French products: sig. econ. impact
--Greenpeace video'd French troops storming boat, broadcast
globally
>> France has pledged to sign CTB; Chirac's popularity
plummeted
B. Prevent spread to "rogue" states: Iran, Iraq, Libya
C. Prevent spread to intl. terrorists & criminals
1. Russian n. scientists on intl. market
2. Russia admits 700+ incidents of theft or attempted theft of
weapons-grade plutonium & uranium in past 2 years
a. 1 Kg. Pu costs several million $ on black market
3. New IAEA program monitors radioactive shipments, relies on customs
officials, increases info-sharing
D. Environmental clean-up
1. U.S.-Hanford is only of many sites w/ major contamination Will
cost hundreds of billions of $
2. Former SU is worse -- & far less able to pay for clean-up
3. Environmental groups worldwide have drawn attn. to probs.
Q: Wh. paradigm does best job of interpreting these post-Cold War
nuclear issues?