Supporting and Related Pages:

• Geography 350
• Pacific Northwest Economy
• Microsoft Resource Page
• Boeing Resource Page

Conway Studies & Press Reports:

• Economic ills may linger in Seattle area Washington won't get back to prerecession levels until 2005, experts say Seattle PI, January 9, 2003; By PAUL NYHAN The regional recession now stands as the harshest economic contraction since the 1971 Boeing bust, local economist Dick Conway said yesterday. Before the pain is over, the Seattle area could record up to 49,000 job losses in the aerospace industry alone in the past five years, he added.

• Seattle's long road back: Return to economic health won't be rapid Seattle Times, August 18, 2002 By Stephen H. Dunphy 'Dick Conway, a Seattle economist, says it may be the middle of 2005 before the number of jobs reaches the peak hit at the end of 2000, or 1,735,000 jobs in King, Snohomish, Piece and Kitsap counties. "If that forecast holds true," Conway said, "it will be the worst recovery from a recession we have ever had."'

• Boeing layoffs hurt market for home sales SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER, Wednesday, April 10, 2002; By MARNI LEFF "The fact is that the housing market for the region as a whole is still holding up pretty well and that reflects what's going on nationally," said Dick Conway, co-author of the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. "The low mortgage rates have kept homes affordable, and people are still buying in spite of rising unemployment."

• Richard Conway - Video [9/21/2001]

• Seattle Police Department Strategic Plan: SPD 2001

  "[...] With the economic recovery in the aerospace industry (Boeing) and a continued positive outlook for computer software and Pacific Rim trade, the outlook for the regional and Seattle economies over the next five years is positive. Employment in the city is expected to grow at about 1.5 percent annually and personal income at about 5.0 percent per year, according to Dick Conway, noted regional economic analyst. [...]"

• Lots of Green Left in the Emerald City Seattle's prosperity and high employment won't be seriously dented by Boeing's mini-pullout or even by Microsoft's travails [Business Week 3/28/01] A U.S. recession, rising energy prices, and a continued shakeout of the high-tech sector could reverse the momentum in a heartbeat. Seattle economist Dick Conway estimates that the region could lose $4.5 billion in potential stock-option income from 2000 to 2002 if the market stays where it is. And if Boeing were to relocate its manufacturing operations outside the state, not just its headquarters, life would get considerably grimmer.

• BPA Studies (2000): The Washington State Aluminum Industry Economic Impact Study September 11, 2000 - Dick Conway & Associates. The purpose of the study was to estimate the economic importance of the aluminum industry to the state and the nine counties where the major aluminum plants are located. The year of analysis is 1998. [PDF file (111kb)] [See also: ALUMINIUM INDUSTRY USES STUDY TO BUILD CASE [www.uswa329.org/2000/August_2000/Aug23a.htm; Wednesday, August 23, 2000 By MIKE ROGOWAY, Vancouver Columbian staff writer The aluminum industry employed 7,510 people in Washington in 1998, paying wages nearly 70 percent higher than the overall statewide average, according to a privately funded study issued Tuesday by the Northwest aluminum industry.]

  Two additional (draft) economic impact studies conducted by Dick Conway & Associates:

  1. The first report is entitled "The Montana State Aluminum Industry Economic Impact Study" (PDF, 22 pages, 42 kb). The purpose of this study was to estimate the economic importance of the aluminum industry to Flathead County in the State of Montana.
  2. The second report is entitled "The Oregon State Aluminum Industry Economic Impact Study" (PDF, 26 pages, 55 kb). Its purpose was to estimate the economic importance of the aluminum industry to two counties in the State of Oregon, Multonomah County and Wasco County. The year of analysis for both reports is 1998.
  A one-page regional impact chart (PDF, 7 kb) is based on some regional numbers for the industry.

• Dick Conway (GTTLS)

• State gets rich on Microsoft: High-tech workers here best paid in U.S. SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER, Thursday, May 18, 2000, by JOHN COOK

  "According to a recent study conducted by Conway, one quarter of the jobs created in the state between March 1999 and March 2000 fell in the computer services category. (Conway noted that the percentage does not include those working at Internet companies, which fall under a different classification). Another 25 percent of jobs created in the state during the 12-month period were indirectly tied to the roaring high-tech economy in the form of car mechanics, waiters and retail clerks...."

• In Depth: Safeco Field -- Stadium's economic impact goes beyond baseball From the May 28, 1999 print edition of Puget Sound Business Journal. M. Sharon Baker Measuring the overall economic impact of the Seattle Mariners' new home at Safeco Field isn't a precise exercise, but the cumulative information about expenditures and long-term effects is impressive.

  Analysts argue whether Boeing cuts will cost area large loss of other jobs Seattle Times, Friday, December 4, 1998, by Michele Matassa Flores

  '"For every Boeing job, 2.8 more are created around Washington state." ..."multipliers," typically are cited with precision and certainty, as if they're sure-fire ways to measure economic impact. In fact, they are inexact and controversial,... The numbers didn't account for the widely held theory that if the Mariners left town, people would find other ways to spend their entertainment dollars. The study's authors, regional economists Richard Conway and Bill Beyers, later clarified the impact by pointing to a more conservative part of their study.... "You don't actually see these things happening," said Conway....

  Regional economic and demographic data base, modeling, and forecasting : data base for Puget Sound Region, specification of STEP97, long-range forecasts for Puget Sound Region / Dick Conway & Associates. - Seattle, Wash. : The Associates, 1997. HC 107 .W22 P872 1997 (King County Library)

• Pro Sport's Impact on the Economy is Closer to a Bunt than a Home Run, but There May Be Other Reasons to Keep Teams Swinging at Home [By Tom Griffin, in: UW Alumni Columns, June 1997.] [ Economic Impact Chart: New Money: Comparing What Each Enterprise Brings to the State]

  ... Richard Conway, '71, co-author ... of four sports studies and owner of Dick Conway and Associates, "People would likely use that money on other entertainment-- bowling, the movies, whatever." [...] jolted by the fact that the Seahawks and the Mariners are about even in attracting "new money"..., even though the Mariners play 81 homes games and the Seahawks only 10.
  "I know most people are asking themselves, `What's going on here?' " Conway admits. Historically Seahawks attendance per game is higher than the Mariners. Also, the average Hawks fan spends three times as much as the average M's fan. More Seahawks fans are from out of state, boosting the new money totals....
  The way the teams are funded also has an effect, Conway adds. Because the NFL shares national TV revenue and merchandising income to a greater extent.... "About two-thirds of the Seahawks income is from these sources, while only half of the Mariners income comes from them," Conway explains.

  Critique: Mariner Economic Analysis [By Robert Baade, "nationally known for analyzing stadium proposals"]

  This report concludes that the Dick Conway & Associates Report uses a methodology to estimate the economic impact of professional baseball on the city, county, and state that overestimates the economic contribution of the Mariners to the Seattle, King County, and State of Washington economies.

• THE NEW BUSINESS CYCLE It used to be housing and autos. But now, high tech rules; And a stall there could stagger the economy Business Week Cover Story, March 31, 1997. "A study of Microsoft Corp.'s impact on the Washington state economy showed that each Microsoft job created 6.7 new jobs in the state, compared with a 3.8 multiplier for Boeing Co. The difference? Almost $800 million in stock option income for Microsoft workers in 1995, the year of the study. These dollars spill over in the form of increased purchases .... In addition, Boeing outsources a lot of the work... As a result, ''Microsoft spends three to four times more per person in the local economy than Boeing does,'' says Richard S. Conway Jr., the Seattle-based economist who conducted the study."

  Richard S. Conway, Jr. FOREIGN EXPORTS AND THE WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMY [ Text version] Prepared for Washington State Department of Community, Trade, and Economic Development, Port of Seattle, Port of Tacoma, Washington Public Ports Association [Dick Conway & Associates 2323 Eastlake Avenue East Seattle, Washington 98102 (206) 324-0700], February 1997

• Steady rise seen for economy; Seattle Times, Feb. 22, 1996, by Christopher Solomon

  God, Microsoft and Boeing willing, the region's economy should continue its slow but steady climb... That was the conclusion of a panel of economists, academics and real estate specialists... "We're going to see reasonable growth, but a lot depends upon our friend, The Boeing Co." said Dick Conway, an economic consultant and principal of Dick Conway & Associates.
  After cutting about 36,000 aerospace jobs between 1990 and December 1995, it appears that Boeing will hire about 4,000 workers over the next two years, Conway said.
  While that in no way approaches Boeing's hiring in the mid-1980s, said Conway, the area now has Microsoft Corp., ... [...] Conway predicted employment would grow 2.8 percent in 1997. That compares with an average growth rate of 1.2 percent during the last five years, he said."

• Dick Conway's Study of Microsoft's Local Impact Multipliers (ST Dec.5, 1996)

  "Boeing, with its 85,000 employees here, may be the state's 800-pound economic gorilla. But Microsoft, with 11,000 workers statewide, may be creating bigger individual ripples, according to a new economic analysis of the Redmond software manufacturer.
  Regional economist Richard Conway has determined that every job at Microsoft supports an additional 3.4 jobs elsewhere in the state's economy, based on the amount of money Microsoft employees spend locally and the number of dollars the company spends here for goods and services."

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