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Long-Wave Theories of Development

(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/207/development/longwaves.html)


Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratieff (1892 - 1938)

[N.D.Kondratieff]

Internet Sites:

  • Geography of Economic Change

  • FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES AND PROBLEMS - CHAPTER 20: THE LONG WAVE (Dr. Furfero)

  • Kondratieff Wave [www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index22.html] [with graph]

  • Schumpeter Page [Harpham]

  • http://www.sommerakademie.de/1999/schwarz/#1 [Konstellationen der Kondratieff-Zyklen, deutsch/German] [incl. Table with "Konstellationen der Kondratieff-Zyklen"]

  • George Modelski's Page (UW)

  • Kondratieff waves and Russian history

  • Le debut d'un cinquieme Kondratieff? [Resources]


    Literature:

    Orley M. Amos, Jr., Growth Pole Cycles, (on-line) Chapter 10: A GROWTH POLE AND LONG WAVE SYNTHESIS

    Berry, Brian J.L., "Long Waves in American Urban Evolution," in: John Fraser Hart, ed., Our Changing Cities. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991, pp.31ff. [HT123 O87/1991]

    Berry, Brian J.L., Long-wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991.

    Berry, Brian J.L. and Heja Kim, "Long Waves 1790-1990: Intermittency, Chaos, and Control," in: L.Douglas Kiel and Euel Elliott, eds., Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1996. (chapter 10) [H61.25 C48]

    Chisholm, Michael. Regions in Recession & Resurgence. London: Unwin Hyman, 1990. [HT388.C48]

    Dassbach, Carl H.A., Long Waves and Historical Generation: A World-System Approach September 1995, Department of Social Sciences, Michigan Technological University.

    "This paper reviews the existing literature on generations and long waves and then examines 41 generational movements to determine if there is any relationship between generations, long waves and regions of the world economy."

    Dassbach, Entrepreneurial Motivation and the Clustering of Innovations: A Reconsideration of Schumpeter's Theory of the Kondratieff Cycle.

    This paper maintains that Schumpeter's theory of the Kondratieff Cycle or long wave has been plagued by two misinterpretations, 1.) the clustering of innovations resulting from new technological discoveries is the cause of long waves and 2.) the theory is unable to explain why innovations cluster at certain times.

    De Greene,, K.B., Will There Be a Fifth Kondratiev Cycle/Structure? Systems Research 10 (1993), pp.41-56.

    De Greene, Kenyon B., Field-Theoretic Framework for the Interpretation of the Evolution, Instability, Structural Change, and Management of Complex Systems," in: L.Douglas Kiel and Euel Elliott, eds., Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1996. (chapter 12), pp.273ff. [H61.25 C48]

    Andre Gunder Frank "Kondratieff Analysis," in: GLOBALIZATION 1400-1800

    In my previous book on the 1492-1789 period, I sought to identify Kondratieff cycles beginning in the seventeenth century or earlier, albeit in what I then thought was a European centered world capitalist economy (Frank 1978a). Since then, Wallerstein, has also organized the account of the rise and development of his also European centered Modern World-System increasingly in terms of Kondratieff "long" cycles....

    Freeman, Christopher, ed., Long Waves in the World Economy, London: Frances Pinter, 1983.

    Goldstein, Joshua. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991.

    Hall, Peter. "The Geography of the Fifth Kondratieff," Ch.2 in: Massey, D. & J.Allen. eds., Restructuring Britain: Uneven Development: Cities and Regions in Transition. Hodder & Stoughton, 1988, pp.51ff. [HC 256.6 U63]

    Hall, Peter and Paschal Preston. The Carrier Wave: New Information Technology and the Geography of Information 1866-2003, London: Unwin Hyman, 1988.

    Hayter, Roger, The Dynamics of Industrial Location, 1997, pp.25ff.: "Kondratieff Cycles".

    Kiel, L. Douglas and Euel Elliott, "Long Wave Cycle, Techno-Economic Paradigms and the Pattern of Reform in American Public Administration", Administration and Society, January 1999, 30(6), 616-639.

    Kondratiev, N.D., The Long Wave Cycle. N.Y.: Richardson & Snyder, 1984.

    Kondratieff, Nikolai D., "The Long Waves in Economic Life," Review of Economic Statistics. 17(6) Nov 1935

    KONDRATIEFF, NICOLAUS D.: Die langen Wellen der Konjunktur. Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, 56:573-609, 1926.

    Lewis, Edward. Introduction to The Periodic Production of Rationalized Phenomena and the Past Periodic Depressions

    "Scientific revolutions have happened at about 80 year intervals, and these have caused "technological revolutions" at about 80 year intervals, and economic depressionary periods about every 40 years. The periodic depressions have been called Kondratiev depressions."

    Malecki, E.J., Technology & Economic Development. 2nd ed., 1997. [pp.75ff.: "Technology: A Long Wave View"]

    Mandel, E., Long Waves of Capitalist Development. Cambridge University Press, 1980.

    Marshall, M., Long Waves of Regional Development. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1987. [Reviewed by Peter Hall in: Progress In Human Geography 13(1), March 1989, pp.133-4.

    G.O.Mensch, Das Technologische Patt, Umschau Verlag, Frankfurt, 1975; Stalemate in Technology (1979)

    Neumann, Manfred. The Rise and Fall of the Wealth of Nations: Long Waves in Economics and International Politics. Elgar Publ. 1997 [summary in JEL Dec.1997, p.2127]
    German Original (of this "revised translation"): Zukunftsperspektiven im Wandel: Lange Wellen in Wirtschaft und Politik. 1990.

    Norton, R.D. The Geography of the New Economy. The Digital Divide

    .... it turns out that new economies have emerged in the U.S. and world economies about every half-century or so. Today's New Economy, in other words, is one of a progression of new economies over the past two centuries, beginning with the high Industrial Revolution in Britain in the late 1700s....

    Simon, Julien. The Great Breakthrough and its Cause. Edited by Timur Kuran. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2000. [Foreword by Richard A. Easterlin] [The long-run progress-population connection, "Sudden Modern Progress"; development discontinuities; response to Malthusian doctrine]

    Stutz, F. and A. DeSouza. The World Economy: Resources, Location, Trade, and Development. p.384-6 (incl. graph after Dicken 1992)

    Van Duijn, J.J. The Long Wave in Economic Life, London: George Allen and Unwin, 1983.


    Graphic (Re-)Presentations of "Long-Wave Phenomena":

    Other References:


    "Maturity is only a short break in adolescence." (Jules Feiffer)


    "History does not repeat itself. Historians repeat each other." (Arthur Balfour)
    "That men do not learn from history is the most important lesson that history has to teach." (Aldous Huxley)
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