Some More Musings on Dualmode versus Singlemode
PRT
by
I have read the DM/SM debate pages with
much interest. The majority opinion, so far, seems to be that
SM can't provide sufficient service for the long run.
However, DM advocates all agree that an interim SM period
must precede a DM deployment in order to build the network to
a size sufficient to warrant the use of DM (quite a bit of
disagreement on cost and length of this period), and most DM
systems are envisioned to do both SM and DM at some point.
This gives rise to three questions:
1. If SM PRT can't do the job. Who will have the staying
power to go through the interim SM only period? (It would
seem successful SM is a prerequisite for DM)
2. On the other hand, if SM PRT does prove to be
successful, how far will it be developed before the DM is
blended in?
3. Should a combination DM/SM system come into being,
what would be the eventual balance of use between SM/DM?
My take is that SM will develop much further than most
see it. However, I think DM is a concept that eventually
should be tried. Then there would be a really fascinating
period where system operators would have to choose on a
continuing basis whether to put expansion money into SM
stations or DM ramps or maybe even stations that are a
combination. Place your bets :-)
However things turn out, I believe the focus should be
to make the operation profitable, and not get bogged down
trying solve the problems of the existing transportation
system. It changes the emphasis to providing convenience,
speed, access, low cost, etc. and away from pollution, energy
savings, congestion relief, etc. The former is what the
consumer wants, the latter is what planners want. As Peter
Drucker said in his book Managing for Results -
"Results come from exploiting opportunities, not from
solving problems. All one can hope to do with solving
problems is to restore normality. Opportunities, meanwhile,
go unexploited."
PRT is entrepreneurial and hopefully opportunistic,
ITS/AHS is bureaucratic and wrestles with problems.
Dennis Manning has been a transportation engineer with
CalTrans for many years and is now retired. He is the
Secretary/Treasurer of the
Advanced Transit Association and manager of
ATRA's website .
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Dualmode Debate
Last modified: April 13, 1998