It is the Wrong Debate -- The Wrong Issues
by Jon Bogle
April 29th 1997
I have read the debate between Dr. Anderson
and Professor Vuchic along with the various comments on the
debate by others. The debate itself is symptomatic of why
such a good idea as PRT has languished in obscurity for so
long. Proponents of PRT tend to be transportation
professionals and look at PRT systems only in terms of
transportation issues. In the debate, everyone becomes
trapped in a mass transit imbroglio. Mass transit, which has
riders in large conveyances, on a rigid schedule, cooped up
with strangers, is not an attractive or reasonable option. No
one actually wants to travel in those conditions. If they
did, then plenty of mass transit options would be already
working, having been demanded by a vocal constituency. The
vocal political and economic constituency has been for roads
and automobiles because the desire is for independent
personal travel.
The solution is not better mass transit but, rather, an
alternative to the automobile. Replacing the automobile is
the only practical means for solving a host of serious, often
deadly, problems. To replace the automobile, a new system
will have to compete successfully against the strengths of
the automobile. This can be accomplished by a PRT system. The
money and political attention that now flow to automobiles
can be rechanneled, by normal competitive pressures, to
support the new system.
I live on a dirt road in rural Pennsylvania. I have
spent the last four years, on and off, designing
CULOR , a suspended PRT system, but my interest is not
primarily focused on transportation. I am interested in the
future, and I see a bleak future, unless a way can be found
to replace the automobile. The automobile once offered
freedom, convenience, and economic growth, but it has now
become a monster by amplification. Automobile induced air
pollution and petroleum usage are conjoined evil twins whose
effects are obvious in our cities and horrendous in most
third world cities. Breathing Mexico City's air is equal to
smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. There are other more
immediate dangers. In the United States in 1995, there were
fourteen million automobile accidents which resulted in forty
two thousand deaths and over two million injuries. Added to
issues of health, safety, and energy usage, are the
peripheral liabilities of outrageous land usage, decay of
urban centers, and the trashing of our countryside.
Our industrial culture and civilization is supported on
a petroleum bubble which will pop, like a pricked balloon,
when the oil reserves start to run out. We had a preview of
things to come during the Arab oil embargo in the
mid-seventies. In the economic "stagflation" that
resulted, prices for all energy related and petrochemical
based segments of the economy, like food and plastics,
spiraled rapidly upward while the larger economy became
moribund. Our modern industrial economy runs on an oil
standard just as previous economies had a gold standard. Even
modern agriculture runs a calorie deficit with the energy
input from petroleum being greater than the food calorie
return. Our government clearly understands the situation,
having been willing to put troops on the ground in the
Persian Gulf to secure supply lines.
In 1994 we Americans used one hundred and forty billion
gallons of gasoline in our cars. As the great populations of
the third world continue to industrialize, they will become
more insistent competitors for oil reserves and the rate of
reserve depletion will rapidly accelerate. Gasoline usage is
currently increasing by seven percent a year in China. We
need a replacement system for the automobile so that the
Chinese, Indonesians, Indians, Southeast Asians, and South
Americans will have an alternative to following our bad
example. There are some estimates that the proven oil
reserves will be start to run out fairly early in the next
century. Getting a handle on usage now can put off this
inevitable moment, allowing us some time to develop
alternative sources of energy.
Air pollution, safety, and energy conservation are
problems a PRT system can cure. Compared to the automobile; a
national
CULOR style PRT system would save ten of thousands of
lives each year, avoid over a million injuries, save hundreds
of billions of dollars in operating costs, use less than ten
percent of the fuel and produce less than five percent of the
air pollution.
To function as a competitor to the automobile, a PRT
system would , like the automobile, have to be practically
everywhere. A national CULOR/PRT system with two hundred
thousand miles of guideway would be a full scaffold with
enough mileage to cover every major urban and suburban
thoroughfare in the country. It would also connect urban
centers using the interstate highway right-of-ways. A
national CULOR/PRT system this size would require about eight
hundred billion dollars to build.
Now, eight hundred billion dollars is a goodly sum, but
I can show you the money!
In 1993, we Americans spent five hundred and sixty
billion private consumer dollars to buy, run, insure, and fix
our cars. For the individual, the bill is proportionately
high. The average new automobile bought and driven twelve
thousand miles a year, cost the owner thirty thousand dollars
during the first five years. The various levels of government
spent another eighty six and a half billion dollars to build
and maintain the road system. The total, six hundred and
forty eight billion dollars, is almost half of what we spend
to run federal government. One of the positive fallouts from
a national PRT system will be a much more efficient economy.
Proponents of PRT systems have focused on mass transit
imagery in part, I believe, to avoid the attention of the
powerful economic and political forces attached to the
highway/automobile complex. The problem is that there is very
little money for mass transit, while roads and cars are
soaking up enormous amounts of funding. In order for PRT to
have any chance of succeeding, someone is going to have to
poke that bear and I, for one, would like to have some
powerful friends standing nearby when it happens.
CULOR, my own version of PRT, is more a data system and
a child of electricity than a thing of hardware. Let's
recruit the power utilities and perhaps the communication
utilities to the task of building a PRT system. They have
nothing to lose and a tremendous amount to gain in the
conversion of the automobile into a regulated utility that
they control. There are hundreds of billions of dollars, now
going to the automobile, that are up for grabs. The situation
is somewhat like the mid-nineteenth century when the
railroads were given right-of-ways as an incentive to lay
track. A deal can be brokered, trading access to the space
above the highway system in return for guarantees to build a
system and appropriate governmental regulation. The utilities
are powerful in their own right and able to hold their own
against the entrenched highway interest. They are accustomed
to issues surrounding public right-of-ways and well schooled
in methods of getting research funding out of the government.
While the Department of Transportation has been unresponsive
to PRT for decades, the Department of Energy and the
Environmental Protection Agency may be more helpful in the
end.
A PRT system, designed to displace the automobile, will
have rather tight design parameters. It will need to fit and
operate above the existing city streets. This dictates a
small profile with a turning radius of the standard
automobile. Like the automobile, it will stop many places,
needing numerous off-line stations that can tuck into the
existing city scape. Automobiles are driven from any place to
any place in the road system, travel decisions being
controlled by the driver rather than a central agency. Auto
travel is partially controlled by speed limits, rules of the
road and conditions. In the PRT system, the rider decides
where and were to go with the car's computer acting as
chauffeur. As in the road system, the computer's options are
constrained by traffic conditions and rules of the system.
Like the road system, there will be expressways for fast
travel and slower gateways for various other functions and
conditions.
This is not hard stuff. We are a technical culture that
can arrange for a space probe to fly near a moon of Jupiter.
We can also put a couple of passengers in a car and use
electric motors to carry them along a guideway. We can do
this conveniently, safely, and in multiples of millions by
applying existing and rather mundane technology.
Jon Bogle can be reached at Box 147, Lycoming College,
Williamsburg, PA 17701
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Last modified: May 4, 1997