Current and Past Projects



 
 


Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study. Ongoing.

The Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study (PNCERS) is a research and outreach program
based on coastal management issues and needs. We are conducting studies of the nearshore and estuarine ecosystems of the Pacific Coast between the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Cape Mendocino with emphasis on five estuaries: Oregon's Coos Bay, Yaquina Bay and Tillamook Bay and Washington's Grays harbor and Willapa Bay in Washington. The science research seeks to help users and managers of coastal resources better understand how coastal ecosystems in the region
respond to natural variabilityof the ocean and atmosphere and to effects of human activities. The social and economic research attempts to integrate the scientific knowledge with institutional, economic, and policy aspects of coastal ecosystem management.

PNCERS is a joint effort of the Oregon Coastal Management Program, the Washington Sea Grant Program, and the National Marine Fisheries Service. We are funded by the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .

A full description of the project is available at the PNCERS website http://www.pncers.org

The Social and Economic Research in PNCERS is being carried out at SMA by Dr.s Huppert, Leschine, and Bell;
and at Oregon StateUniversity' School of Forest Resources by Dr. Rebecca Johnson. The main components of this research include:

(1) A Socio-Economic Baseline: Documentation of economic and demographic trends and conditions in and around the four areas of interest: Coos Bay and Tillamook Bay, Oregon and Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor, Washington. The baseline is documented in a report prepared by The Research Group of Corvallis Oregon, and it is available in pdf format at (PNCERS) Publications.

(2) Institutional Mapping: investigation of the structure, legal basis, and regulatory processes of the institutions currently involved in managing the estuarine and nearshore ecosystems. A summary of some of this research is available at (PNCERS) Publications: Tabloid 2

(3) Investigation of concepts and applicability of "ecosystem management" to the coastal ecosystems of the Pacific Northwes.

(4) Attitudes and Values: surveys of coastal residents, scientists and managers, and recreational participants in coastal estuaries and beaches. Finally, we aim to integrate the social and economic findings with the physical/biological research results to faciltiate and improve management of coastal ecosystems. This is accomplished through a series of workshops involving ecosystems managers and scientists from throughout the PNCERS region.
 

Northwest Power Planning Council, Independent Economic Advisory Board. Ongoing
    The Northwest Power Act, P.L. 96-501, 16 U.S.C. §839 et seq. (Act), in Section 4(h)(1)(A), requires the Northwest Power Planning Council to develop a fish and wildlife program for the Columbia River Basin.  The Act requires the Council to “utilize, where equally effective alternative means of achieving the same sound biological objective exist, the alternative with the minimum economic cost.” (Section 4(h)(6)(C)).  The negotiation of a federal memorandum of agreement on Bonneville spending for fish and wildlife measures also underscores the importance of cost-effective fish and wildlife investments.  In addition, federal legislation adopted in 1996 requires cost-effectiveness evaluation in prioritizing fish and wildlife measures.  The Independent Economic Analysis Board is intended to provide the Council with advice and an increased analytical capability to help bring economics to bear in determining and prioritizing fish recovery measures.I have been a member of this advisory board for the Northwest Power Planning Council since spring of 1997.

I have been a member of the IEAB since spring of 1997 and am currently Chair. More information about the IEAB is available at the Northwest Power Planning Council website NPPC
 


Economic Value of Long-Lead Streamflow Forecasts for Columbia River Hydropower

JISAO Climate Impacts Group, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Marine Affairs
Alan F. Hamlet, Daniel Huppert, Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Abstract
Recent advances in long-lead climate forecasts have made it possible to produce useful streamflow forecasts for the Columbia River basin roughly six months earlier than current forecasts that rely on snow pack measurements.  The resulting increase in forecast lead time makes possible considerable improvements in system operating performance, especially in years of expected above average flows.  In the current reservoir operating system, the so called “critical” and “assured refill” rule curves that restrict releases for hydropower generation in the period from August to December are based on the critical (most severe low flow) and third lowest flow sequences of record, respectively.  These rule curves provide appropriate protection of energy capacity and reservoir refill in extreme low flow conditions, but are restrictive in normal and high flow years until mid winter when operational streamflow forecasts based on observed snowpack become available, and the climatological constraints are relaxed to account for expected summer streamflows.  Use of long-lead time streamflow forecasts allows current operating constraints to be relaxed in years when there is a high likelihood of ample streamflow.  In these years, more spot market energy sales can be made in the late summer and fall/early winter, because of increased available water for releases, and spill from reservoirs in wet years is also reduced.  Reservoir model simulations using alternative reservoir rule curves based upon retrospective long-lead streamflow forecasts from water years 1931 to 1987 show that the proposed alternative operating system  based on climate forecasts can increase non-firm energy production from the major Columbia River hydropower dams by as much as 5.5 million MW-hrs per year, resulting in an average increase in annual revenue of approximately $153 million per year in comparison with the status quo.
*.pdf file -  ValueofWaterForecasts - Text file;   Figures


Economics of Habitat Restoration

    This is a short paper on some basic economic principals for quantifying the effects of salmon habitat restoration. It was developed for and presented to the National Marine Fisheries Service/Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission's "Salmon Habitat Restoration Cost Workshop". November 14-16, 2000 Gladstone, Oregon.  Economics of Habitat


Columbia River Salmon: Where Are We Going? and How Do We Get There? SMA Working Paper -00-5

       This is a slightly revised version of a paper presented to Portland State University's Salmon Symposium "What We Don't Know about Pacific Northwest Fish Runs: An Inquiry in Decision-making under Uncertainty", July 7-8, 2000. The Salmon Symposium and this paper were sponsored by the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. SMAWorkingPaper.pdf


 

Technology and Fishing Rights (with Gunnar Knapp). 1999 - A paper presented to the Political Economy Research Center Forum at Chico Hot Springs, Montana. December 1999. It focuses on the technological requirements for effective creation of individual fishing rights, such as Individual Fishing Quotas (IFQs) and Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs). To download a pdf file (about 82 KB) click here:  TechnologyandFishingRights

Economics of Snake River Salmon Recovery..

This was a series of projects sponsored by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Regional Office, during 1992 - 1996.
Dr. David Fluharty, Research Associate Professor at School of Marine Affair, was the co-Prinicpal Investigator on the project, and a number of SMA master's students worked for the project over the years. We worked with a large panel of economists from the Columbia Basin region -- representing universities, industry, federal and state agencies, American Indian tribes, and others -- and drew heavily on work being conducted for the Bonneville Power Administration and Army Corps of Engineers in a study calls the Systems Operation Review for the Columbia River Hydropower System. The final and most comprehensive report from this work is "Economics or Snake River Salmon Recovery: A Report to the National Marine Fisheries Service by Daniel D. Huppert, David L. Fluharty, Eric E. Doyle, and Amjoun Benyounes.

To download:

        The Executive Summary as a pdf file ( 16 pp, 165KB) :ExecutiveSummary
           Chapters 1-6                                   (105 pp, 533KD)    Chapters1-6.pdf
           Appendices A-D                               (39 pp, 207KB)      Appendices.pdf

US-Canada Salmon War, 1996. During my sabbatical in 1995-96 I wrote a working paper on the ongoing controversy between Canada and the United State over harvesting of salmon in transboundary areas. A short version of this paper, entitled "U.S./Canada Salmon Wars: Why the Pacific Salmon Treaty Has Not Brought Peace" became the first edition of the new report series New Directions in Marine Affairs, which was jointly supported by UW Sea Grant and the School of Marine Affairs.

To obtain a pdf file version of the SMA Working Paper click here:  US-Canada Salmon War


  Risk Assessment, Economics, and Precautionary Fishery Management. 1996 This paper reviews the basic concepts of decision making under risk, and it describes risk assessment and risk management approaches developed for environmental protection decisions in the United States.  Formal decision models quantify the value of strategies based upon probabilities of various outcomes.  Economic valuation of those outcomes can be used to rank strategies and to select the best ones.  Fishery management decisions often can be assessed with this analytical method. However, differences between the public perceptions of risk and the technical measures of risk create problems.  To reduce political opposition to implementing precautinary harvest policies, fishery managers could collaborate with interest groups (including the fishing industry) to communicate the risk information before adopting an arbitrary risk-avoidance stategy. The numerous types and sources of risk in fisheries are summarized in the paper, including those affecting the safety of fishermen, economic prosperity, and fish stock condition. Where fish stock collapse is the main risk, rational economic harvest policy safeguards against stock collapse by establishing an adaptive annual harvest quota and minimum stock level where harvest is curtailed. This is similar to biological benchmarks developed in the technical fisheries literature.

To download a *.pdf file of this paper click here: PrecautionaryApproach