Suppose that one observation,
, is obtained from a Poisson distribution with expected value
. Ninety percent, 95 percent and 99 percent confidence intervals for the parameter
are given. For
a normal approximation with variance
may be used.
Table 1:
Confidence intervals for the expected value (parameter) of a Poisson random variable.
|
Percent confidence |
|
90 |
95 |
99 |
|
Lower limit |
Upper limit |
Lower limit |
Upper limit |
Lower limit |
Upper limit |
0 |
0.00 |
3.00 |
0.00 |
3.69 |
0.00 |
5.30 |
1 |
0.05 |
4.74 |
0.03 |
5.57 |
0.01 |
7.43 |
2 |
0.36 |
6.30 |
0.24 |
7.22 |
0.10 |
9.27 |
3 |
0.82 |
7.75 |
0.62 |
8.77 |
0.34 |
10.98 |
4 |
1.37 |
9.15 |
1.09 |
10.24 |
0.67 |
12.59 |
5 |
1.97 |
10.51 |
1.62 |
11.67 |
1.08 |
14.15 |
6 |
2.61 |
11.84 |
2.20 |
13.06 |
1.54 |
15.66 |
7 |
3.29 |
13.15 |
2.81 |
14.42 |
2.04 |
17.13 |
8 |
3.98 |
14.43 |
3.45 |
15.76 |
2.57 |
18.58 |
9 |
4.70 |
15.71 |
4.12 |
17.08 |
3.13 |
20.00 |
10 |
5.43 |
16.96 |
4.80 |
18.39 |
3.72 |
21.40 |
11 |
6.17 |
18.21 |
5.49 |
19.68 |
4.32 |
22.78 |
12 |
6.92 |
19.44 |
6.20 |
20.96 |
4.94 |
24.14 |
13 |
7.69 |
20.67 |
6.92 |
22.23 |
5.58 |
25.50 |
14 |
8.46 |
21.89 |
7.65 |
23.49 |
6.23 |
26.84 |
15 |
9.25 |
23.10 |
8.40 |
24.74 |
6.89 |
28.16 |
16 |
10.04 |
24.30 |
9.15 |
25.98 |
7.57 |
29.48 |
17 |
10.83 |
25.50 |
9.90 |
27.22 |
8.25 |
30.79 |
18 |
11.63 |
26.69 |
10.67 |
28.45 |
8.94 |
32.09 |
19 |
12.44 |
27.88 |
11.44 |
29.67 |
9.64 |
33.38 |
20 |
13.25 |
29.06 |
12.22 |
30.89 |
10.35 |
34.67 |
21 |
14.07 |
30.24 |
13.00 |
32.10 |
11.07 |
35.95 |
22 |
14.89 |
31.41 |
13.79 |
33.31 |
11.79 |
37.22 |
23 |
15.72 |
32.59 |
14.58 |
34.51 |
12.52 |
38.48 |
24 |
16.55 |
33.75 |
15.38 |
35.71 |
13.26 |
39.74 |
25 |
17.38 |
34.92 |
16.18 |
36.90 |
14.00 |
41.00 |
26 |
18.22 |
36.08 |
16.98 |
38.10 |
14.74 |
42.25 |
27 |
19.06 |
37.23 |
17.79 |
39.28 |
15.49 |
43.50 |
28 |
19.90 |
38.39 |
18.61 |
40.47 |
16.25 |
44.74 |
29 |
20.75 |
39.54 |
19.42 |
41.65 |
17.00 |
45.98 |
30 |
21.59 |
40.69 |
20.24 |
42.83 |
17.77 |
47.21 |
31 |
22.44 |
41.84 |
21.06 |
44.00 |
18.53 |
48.44 |
32 |
23.30 |
42.98 |
21.89 |
45.17 |
19.30 |
49.67 |
33 |
24.15 |
44.13 |
22.72 |
46.34 |
20.08 |
50.89 |
34 |
25.01 |
45.27 |
23.55 |
47.51 |
20.86 |
52.11 |
35 |
25.87 |
46.40 |
24.38 |
48.68 |
21.64 |
53.32 |
36 |
26.73 |
47.54 |
25.21 |
49.84 |
22.42 |
54.54 |
37 |
27.59 |
48.68 |
26.05 |
51.00 |
23.21 |
55.75 |
38 |
28.46 |
49.81 |
26.89 |
52.16 |
24.00 |
56.96 |
39 |
29.33 |
50.94 |
27.73 |
53.31 |
24.79 |
58.16 |
40 |
30.20 |
52.07 |
28.58 |
54.47 |
25.59 |
59.36 |
41 |
31.07 |
53.20 |
29.42 |
55.62 |
26.38 |
60.56 |
42 |
31.94 |
54.32 |
30.27 |
56.77 |
27.18 |
61.76 |
43 |
32.81 |
55.45 |
31.12 |
57.92 |
27.99 |
62.96 |
44 |
33.69 |
56.57 |
31.97 |
59.07 |
28.79 |
64.15 |
45 |
34.56 |
57.69 |
32.82 |
60.21 |
29.60 |
65.34 |
46 |
35.44 |
58.82 |
33.68 |
61.36 |
30.41 |
66.53 |
47 |
36.32 |
59.94 |
34.53 |
62.50 |
31.22 |
67.72 |
48 |
37.20 |
61.05 |
35.39 |
63.64 |
32.03 |
68.90 |
49 |
38.08 |
62.17 |
36.25 |
64.78 |
32.85 |
70.08 |
50 |
38.96 |
63.29 |
37.11 |
65.92 |
33.66 |
71.27 |
51 |
39.85 |
64.40 |
37.97 |
67.06 |
34.48 |
72.45 |
52 |
40.73 |
65.52 |
38.84 |
68.19 |
35.30 |
73.62 |
53 |
41.62 |
66.63 |
39.70 |
69.33 |
36.13 |
74.80 |
54 |
42.51 |
67.74 |
40.57 |
70.46 |
36.95 |
75.97 |
55 |
43.40 |
68.85 |
41.43 |
71.59 |
37.78 |
77.15 |
56 |
44.29 |
69.96 |
42.30 |
72.72 |
38.60 |
78.32 |
57 |
45.18 |
71.07 |
43.17 |
73.85 |
39.43 |
79.49 |
58 |
46.07 |
72.18 |
44.04 |
74.98 |
40.26 |
80.66 |
59 |
46.96 |
73.28 |
44.91 |
76.11 |
41.09 |
81.82 |
60 |
47.85 |
74.39 |
45.79 |
77.23 |
41.93 |
82.99 |
61 |
48.75 |
75.49 |
46.66 |
78.36 |
42.76 |
84.15 |
62 |
49.64 |
76.60 |
47.54 |
79.48 |
43.60 |
85.32 |
63 |
50.54 |
77.70 |
48.41 |
80.60 |
44.43 |
86.48 |
64 |
51.43 |
78.80 |
49.29 |
81.73 |
45.27 |
87.64 |
65 |
52.33 |
79.91 |
50.17 |
82.85 |
46.11 |
88.80 |
66 |
53.23 |
81.01 |
51.04 |
83.97 |
46.95 |
89.96 |
67 |
54.13 |
82.11 |
51.92 |
85.09 |
47.79 |
91.11 |
68 |
55.03 |
83.21 |
52.80 |
86.21 |
48.64 |
92.27 |
69 |
55.93 |
84.31 |
53.69 |
87.32 |
49.48 |
93.42 |
70 |
56.83 |
85.40 |
54.57 |
88.44 |
50.33 |
94.58 |
71 |
57.73 |
86.50 |
55.45 |
89.56 |
51.17 |
95.73 |
72 |
58.63 |
87.60 |
56.34 |
90.67 |
52.02 |
96.88 |
73 |
59.54 |
88.69 |
57.22 |
91.79 |
52.87 |
98.03 |
74 |
60.44 |
89.79 |
58.11 |
92.90 |
53.72 |
99.18 |
75 |
61.35 |
90.89 |
58.99 |
94.01 |
54.57 |
100.33 |
76 |
62.25 |
91.98 |
59.88 |
95.13 |
55.42 |
101.48 |
77 |
63.16 |
93.07 |
60.77 |
96.24 |
56.28 |
102.62 |
78 |
64.06 |
94.17 |
61.66 |
97.35 |
57.13 |
103.77 |
79 |
64.97 |
95.26 |
62.55 |
98.46 |
57.98 |
104.91 |
80 |
65.88 |
96.35 |
63.44 |
99.57 |
58.84 |
106.06 |
81 |
66.79 |
97.44 |
64.33 |
100.68 |
59.70 |
107.20 |
82 |
67.70 |
98.53 |
65.22 |
101.78 |
60.55 |
108.34 |
83 |
68.60 |
99.62 |
66.11 |
102.89 |
61.41 |
109.48 |
84 |
69.51 |
100.71 |
67.00 |
104.00 |
62.27 |
110.62 |
85 |
70.42 |
101.80 |
67.89 |
105.10 |
63.13 |
111.76 |
86 |
71.34 |
102.89 |
68.79 |
106.21 |
63.99 |
112.90 |
87 |
72.25 |
103.98 |
69.68 |
107.31 |
64.85 |
114.04 |
88 |
73.16 |
105.06 |
70.58 |
108.42 |
65.72 |
115.17 |
89 |
74.07 |
106.15 |
71.47 |
109.52 |
66.58 |
116.31 |
90 |
74.98 |
107.24 |
72.37 |
110.63 |
67.44 |
117.45 |
91 |
75.90 |
108.32 |
73.27 |
111.73 |
68.31 |
118.58 |
92 |
76.81 |
109.41 |
74.16 |
112.83 |
69.17 |
119.71 |
93 |
77.73 |
110.50 |
75.06 |
113.93 |
70.04 |
120.85 |
94 |
78.64 |
111.58 |
75.96 |
115.03 |
70.91 |
121.98 |
95 |
79.56 |
112.66 |
76.86 |
116.13 |
71.77 |
123.11 |
96 |
80.47 |
113.75 |
77.76 |
117.23 |
72.64 |
124.24 |
97 |
81.39 |
114.83 |
78.66 |
118.33 |
73.51 |
125.37 |
98 |
82.30 |
115.91 |
79.56 |
119.43 |
74.38 |
126.50 |
99 |
83.22 |
117.00 |
80.46 |
120.53 |
75.25 |
127.63 |
100 |
84.14 |
118.08 |
81.36 |
121.63 |
76.12 |
128.76 |