Erin Harley: Is hindsight 20/20? Evidence for hindsight bias in visual perception tasks
This research addresses whether or not a hindsight bias exists for visual perception tasks, and if so, under what conditions. In two experiments participants were asked to search for digits hidden in visual noise. Experiment-1 participants were given information to aid them in the search process (digit, location, or both), and then estimated what their performance would have been without the aid. Estimates were compared to performance on trials in which no aid was given. Experiment-2 participants were shown the hidden digits (i.e., were provided outcome information) and predicted the performance of other observers who received no outcome information. A traditional hindsight bias was found in Experiment 1 and in Experiment 2 when outcome information was presented last, but a reverse bias was found in Experiment 2 when outcome information was presented first.