Analysis of Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California

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TitleAnalysis of Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2006
AuthorsAdjemian JCZ, Girvetz EH, Beckett L, Foley JE
JournalJournal of Medical Entomology
Volume43
Pagination93-103
Date PublishedJan
Type of ArticleArticle
ISBN Number0022-2585
Accession NumberISI:000234700300013
KeywordsCalifornia, CERATOPHYLLIDAE, COUNTY, fleas, GARP, PASTEURELLA-PESTIS, plague, RODENT, SAN-FRANCISCO, SIPHONAPTERA, SMALL MAMMALS, SYLVATIC PLAGUE, TRANSMISSION, UNITED-STATES, vector
Abstract

More than 20 species of fleas in California are implicated as potential vectors of Yersinia pestis. Extremely limited spatial data exist for plague vectors-a key component to understanding where the greatest risks for human, domestic animal, and wildlife health exist. This study increases the spatial data available for 13 potential plague vectors by using the ecological niche modeling system Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict their respective distributions. Because the available sample sizes in our data set varied greatly from one species to another, we also performed an analysis of the robustness of CARP by using the data available for flea Oropsylla montana (Baker) to quantify the effects that sample size and the chosen explanatory variables have on the final species distribution map. CARP effectively modeled the distributions of 13 vector species. Furthermore, our analyses show that all of these modeled ranges are robust, with a sample size of six fleas or greater not significantly impacting the percentage of the in-state area where the flea was predicted to be found, or the testing accuracy of the model. The results of this study will help guide the sampling efforts of future studies focusing on plague vectors.

Short TitleJ. Med. Entomol.J. Med. Entomol.
Alternate JournalJ. Med. Entomol.

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Additional

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