Technology Paradigm Shifts
After ‘A” Performance Gains Difficult to Attain.
- Examples:
- Diminishing R&D in Pharmaceuticals
- Rise of “me too” Drugs & Increased Price Competition
- Prozac (Lily), Zoloft (Pfizer), Praxil (SKB)
- Limits to Line Width Reduction in Semi-Conductors
- Photo-lithography facing Diminishing Returns
- Can we go below 0.1 microns?
- Rising R&D Costs in Microprocessors
- 386 $100m, 486 $1 billion, Pentium, $5 billion
Probability of Paradigm Shift Increases