Technology Paradigm Shifts
lAfter ‘A” Performance Gains Difficult to Attain.
nExamples:
–Diminishing R&D in Pharmaceuticals
lRise of “me too” Drugs & Increased Price Competition
lProzac (Lily), Zoloft (Pfizer), Praxil (SKB)
–Limits to Line Width Reduction in Semiconductors
lPhoto-lithography facing Diminishing Returns
lCan we go below 0.1 microns?
–Rising R&D Costs in Microprocessors
l386 $100m, 486 $1 billion, Pentium, $5 billion
lLine width in semiconductors
lProbability of Paradigm Shift Increases
http://www.semichips.org/pre_release.cfm?ID=203
Today’s state-of-the-art semiconductor chips feature technology nodes of 0.18 micron (180 nanometers) with 0.13 micron (130 nanometers) technologies just beginning to reach the marketplace. In the previous roadmap released in 1999, it called for the future generations of dynamic random access memories to feature critical dimensions of 100 nanometers in 2005, then 70 nanometers in 2008, 50 nanometers in 2011 and 35 nanometers in 2014.

Now the industry plans to deliver 90 nanometers (2004),
65 nanometers (2007),
45 nanometers (2010), 32 nanometers (2013) and 22 nanometers (2016). This 2001 schedule translates to smaller chip dimensions earlier in time than previously thought. (Note: a micron is one-millionth of a meter. A nanometer is one-billionth of a meter. A human hair is typically 100 microns, or 100,000 nanometers in width. A red blood cell is 5 microns or 5,000 nanometers is width.)