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Three arenas of competition
Protected, Competitive and hypercompetitive
Protected can be in any one of these senses High entry barriers we normally think of Steel Integrated Steel mills 5-7 miles long and cost billions to build Now in airline you have the hub and spoke system where the entry barrier is the availability of landing slots; Software its usability
Government regulation
CAB caused airlines to compete on non price
No rule breaking -incremental innovations
Changes the nature of the industry
One of the things we’ll look at is how these cozy protected industries were changed by the upstarts that changed the rules.
Telecomms: 1876 Phone invenetd
1885 AT&T set up
1969 - The FCC, by a 4-3 vote, grants MCI's application to establish a limited private line microwave long distance system between St. Louis and Chicago, asserting that such service was in the public interest. This decision marked the beginning of a competitive market in long distance services. 
Autos and steel
High entry barriers
Cost of a steel mill -$4 -$8 billion Minimill $250 million
According to the DOT in 1991 a new auto assembly plant =$200 million. Engine, transmission, parts, components and final assembly =$1 billion
In 1991 advertising by the big 3 was $2 billion
Autos -Protected from imports
Airlines CAB stopped entry between 1938 and 1975
Softdrinks
Computers The era of nobody ever got fired for buying from IBM!
Pharmaceuticals
1984 Statutory patent life is 17 years- applied for early in development. SO Patent term restoration act extends patent for 5 years but no more than 14 total. Also facilitated competition: Clones now only had to demonstrate bioequivalency ANDA (Abbreviated new drug application)
GENERICS MULTIPLIED
Think of the goal of a lot of these corporations: In business to transform raw materials into final products avoid the high costs of interaction costs between independent companies . This required them to operate at great scale and control costs carefully. The vertical integration protected them from all but incremental change.
Not tight oligopolies -witness the breaking down of the airline industry
Since its not tight
Price Wars _Tylenol  taken on by Datril -same medicine for half the price in 1975. Tylenol had 37% of the analgesic market and fought back. Datril got 1% Tylenol forfeited millions. Can be very destructive. Look at the airline industry. Restraint. In an ideal world lowest cost owns 100% of market. Anti trust, capacity issue and an aversion to risk stop that. Three lowest collude on price
Japanese took over watch industry
Swatch in the 70’s (Sold 50 million in first 5 years)
-Escalation ladder -starts
-Move towards perfect competition
For almost ¾ of a century it was a tight oligopoly. Until 1960s a handful of vertically integrated giants dominated the industry.
US Steel formed in 1901 –under president Judge Gray had the “Gary dinners”
Integrated Sector
Produce most of their steel from scratch in sprawling mills that are 2-7 miles long. Process was developed in the 19th century and hasn’t changed much since.
Coke and iron -> Blast furnace ->liquid pig iron ->steelmaking furnace->liquid steel->pots-> solid ingots or to a continuous casting machine->solid slab steel-> reheated & rolled
Minimills forced restructuring
1980s Japanese producers made major inroads Today 1 in 6 US steel workers is being financed by a Japanese mill.
Minimills 1960s made dramatic inroads Convert scrap into finished steel products.
Cost of a steel mill -$4 -$8 billion Minimill $250 million Nucor’s costs are estimated to be 14% below the lowest foreign producer and 18% below
US integrated producers. Between 1979-1989 markets are of major integrated producers fell from 73% to 42%
Minimills went from 8% to 20%
Today the steel industry is the scene of intense price competition
Pharmaceuticals :Change in generic drug laws -Patent term restoration act of 1984
Hypercompetition : Competitive advantage is unsustainable and transitory
Innovation is multifaceted
Products: SW industry and consumer electronics Strategy and structure: SW airlines Look at Amazon: business model where Drugs now the follow on can have same product at a fraction of the cost Intense competition on price and quality leads to price wars Intense competition on timing and know-how leads to shorter product cycles.
1981 Introduction of the PC
IN 1920’s turnover on S&P 500 was 1.5% Lasted 65 years
IN 1998 10% Last 10 years
Why?
Markets are more efficient. They throw non performing companies out. Corporations are based on continuity. Their focus is on operations. Markets are built on discontinuity; their focus is on creation and destruction.
Three great waves
Shortly after WW2
Military build up gave way to the consumer need to rebuild
1960s
Federal defense and aerospace programs began to stimulate the economy providing funds for the development of logic and memory chips and microprocessor
Bubble burst in 1968 . Took until 1980 for Dow to recover.
1890’s Volker led anti-inflation drive
By technology-charged 1990s S&P index turnover unprecedented. Into the age of discontinuity
Need to abandon assumption of continuity
Find ways around cultural “lock-in”
Corporations evolve into entities of convergent thinking
Discontinuity thrives on divergent thinking
May use private equity or venture as future models for corporations
Cultural lock-in inability to change corporate culture even in the face of obvious threats e.g For half a century Bayer drove the growth of Sterling Drug until J&J introduced Tylenol. Out of fear of cannibalizing it’s aspirin drug leadership it failed to introduce its non-aspirin drug Panadol. Failure led to its acquisition by Kodak.Three great fears:
Cannibalization
Channel conflict
Dilution to earnings of acquisitions
Market doesn’t feel them so it moves on
Increasing efficiency of business
Dramatic decline in capital costs. Industry shifted from goods to services concurrent decline in interaction and transaction costs. Arrival of IT and rise in labor productivity due to advances in technology.
Consumers: More Sophisticated and Demanding
Flexible Manufacturing Technology
Mass Customization
Firms Outfocus Competitors by Customization
Increasing efficiency of capital markets
Increasing accuracy and transparency of corporate data
The right or knowledge to produce something is separate from the thing
Slides from Ed Lazowska, CSE
Cultural lock-in inability to change corporate culture even in the face of obvious threats e.g For half a century Bayer drove the growth of Sterling Drug until J&J introduced Tylenol. Out of fear of cannibalizing it’s aspirin drug leadership it failed to introduce its non-aspirin drug Panadol. Failure led to its acquisition by Kodak.Three great fears:
Cannibalization
Channel conflict
Dilution to earnings of acquisitions
Market doesn’t feel them so it moves on
Dominant design :By definition, the design that wins the allegiance of the majority of the marketplace. It’s a satisficer. When a new product comes to market, the characteristics of innovation are molded by forces of competition, invention and customer use until they crystallize into a product with a certain standard form, set of features and technical capability.
Typewriter
Following the success of the Sholes-Glidden-Remington machine, Remington #1, By #5 you could see what you were actually typing.
Caligraph : two separate keyboards for upper and lower case.
By 1909 there were 89 manufacturers. Then Remington, Underwood, Royal and LC Smith (later to become Smith Corona) won.
Many new models of typewriters were invented, but few of them proved to be of any enduring worth, and most were discarded.
Electric typewriters have been in extensive use since 1925,
A dominant design embodies the requirements of many classes of users though not optimizing any. They become what the product is. Nobody sells a PC on the strength of the fact that it has a DISK!
Factors other than technical superiority come into play.
Collateral assets: IBMs brand when it launched th ePC
Industry regulation and government intervention Adoption of RCAs standard for TV by the FCC
Strategic maneuvering by firms.
Lots of new firms -all learning & incorporating the designs. The more firms enter there’s more innovation. Few dominant firms emerge and innovation slows.
Emergence of a dominant design shifts the competitive advantage to the firms that are able to achieve skills in process innovation and integration.
Once there is a dominant design you see:
Enforcement of standards
Change in the pace of innovation
The US standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is an exceedingly odd number-4 feet,wider 8.5 inches.
British built tramways from carriage jigs and they colonized the US. The jig size came from the Romans who built most major roads. Wheel spacing came from a roman chariot which was the width of two horses.
The important thing about a dominant design is to keep looking forward.
Think of Intel -the entire memory market all but 31 computer manufacturers in 1970 was concentrating on core. 7 including Intel AT&T and IBM were looking at semiconductor memory. Most were startups. Monitoring new firm formation a guide?
During the formative period of product innovation the processes used to produce it can be crude.
Edison’s first lamps were made by hand/. Generally as the rate of product innovation decreases the rate of process innovation increases. The number of steps used in making an electric light bulb went from 200->30 between 1880 and 1920. There are parallels here in the formation of innovative/entrepreneurial firms. Loose organic structures give way to formal controls and often the original entrepreneur leaves Jobs at Apple, Noyce at Fairchild.
Move in mainstream market production ramps, rewards go to the process control.
Shift in the basis of competition from performance and technological considerations to price and cost considerations
Growth was slow
1874 launched
By 1885 four new competitors breaking Remington’s monopoly.
By turn of century there were 30 US firms
Roya in 1904
Underwood Model 5 in 1899 See what you were typing -had a tabulator By 1940 there were only 5 firms of any standing left in the market : Royal, Underwood, Remington, Smith (20% share each) and IBM with 10%
Entry began slowly but advanced rapidly after 1900.
From 1894 to 1918 60 firms entered,. Peaked at 75 firms in 1923. In the next two years nearly 1/3rd of the industry 23 firms left.
Depression saw another 20 go
1923 Dodge introduced the all steel closed-body automobile
By 1925 half of all US production was all steel closed body.
By 1926 80% were
In the U.S., broadcasters and receiver manufacturers have agreed on a standard of  525 horizontal lines per frame MORE FRAMES/SEC LESS FLICKER
In order to work TV receivers require a source of field timing reference signals. These are signals that tell the TV receiver to be ready to receive the next picture in the stream of images. Early set designers decided to use the Mains power supply frequency as this source for two good reasons.
1 Older types of power supply, you would get rolling hum bars on the TV picture if the mains supply and power source were not at exactly the same frequency.
2.  TV studios would have had enormous problems with flicker on their cameras when making programmes. A frequency of 30 frames per sec. ( From the mains frequency)
Pixels per line is limited by the frequency channels allocated to television to about 330 elements per line.
The result is an image that consists of about 173,000 individual elements for the entire frame
In addition to standard combinations of Scan Rate, Colour System and transmission frequencies, there are further complications when it comes to additional features like Stereo Sound, Sub-titling and information services. Fortunately, such differences do not effect the basic operation of equipment conforming to the same broadcast standard, but they can restrict the use of various features.
Innovation
Takes place in both target and technical uncertainties
Target: there is no defined market for early innovators
Markets tend to grow around these innovations. In the early stages it’s not clear who the target is or what products will best serve their interests.
Technical
In the early stages R&D is diffuse, firms have no idea where to put their bets. It’s fluid process innovation takes a back seat to product innovation.
Cell Phones
10 years ago the market hardly existed. Now more than half the phones worldwide are mobile.. In Nordic countries 10 cellulars being added for each ground line.Make money two ways: cellular nets and access to ground nets. Cell technology originally implemented in 1984. A duopoly set up by the FCC in 734 markets. One to local line carrier, other auctioned. Cellular companies are each granted 25 Mhz of the spectral division in the 800-900 MHz region, each split between the two directions of communications. Typical analog systems such as AMPS employ FDMA schemes that divide the spectral allocations into uniform frequency channels in the range of 25-30 kHz wide. Applying simple algebra shows the approximate number of channels to be around 416. This number, although appearing somewhat large, is rather small with respect to data communications.
CDMA and TDMA are competing digital standards.
The GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) system, which was launched as the European digital cellular standard in 1992, continues to spread rapidly and currently has over 25 million subscribers (as of the end of 1996). It makes available a range of attractive services such as data communications and messaging which continue to enhance its popularity.
Interesting quirk her,. The people who develop the first product and those that develop the broad based application are not necessarily the same people. Ampex: In the 1950s before anyone had succeeded in inventing a popular VTR RCA and Ampex in the US and Toshiba in Japan were developing it. Ampex was first and took the broadcasting market by storm. JVC Sony and Matshuishta sustained technical effort until the mass market emerged in 1975. Sony introduced the Betamax in 1975. JVC introduced VHS in 1976. By 1977 seven other Japanese firms were making VCRs under license By mid 80s 30 million units annually.
AMPEX failed to see the broad market applications.
Several times in the century of automotive history, materials revolutions have triggered major shifts in design and manufacturing, such as vanadium steel in the Ford Models N and T in 1907-08 or steel to replace wood autobodies in the 1920s. The next such shift, from metals to sophisticated synthetics, has already transformed the boatbuilding and aerospace industries. Cars next The automotive industry and associated sectors represent directly and indirectly about one-tenth of U.S. employment and consumer spending, and one-seventh of GNP. Cars now use about 70% of the United States' lead, 60% of its rubber, carpeting, and malleable iron, 40% of its platinum and machine tools, 34% of its total iron, ~20% of its aluminum, zinc, glass, and semiconductors, 14% of its steel, 10% of its copper, and 3% of its plastics. Americans alone buying a new 1.4-tonne car about every two seconds. The extremely high-quality, -strength, and -cost class of carbon fiber used in special aerospace applications (typically "aerospace-grade prepreg") would not be used in cars: it requires manufacturing methods wholly inappropriate for high volume and low cost, and the sort of fiber used in, say, rockets is so strong that it is probably too brittle to work well in autobodies. Intermediate-stiffness structural carbon in a wide range of formats is both far cheaper and better suited to autobodies' needs. •Carbon-fiber is dropping by 30% with each cumulative doubling of production. The carbon fiber suitable for cars costs 97% less in real terms today than aerospace-grade fiber (then the only kind available) cost in 1968. Structural carbon's real price fell by more than one-third just in the past three years. In early 1996, published bulk "creel" (giant spool) prices for 48k-tow structural carbon fiber reached $18/kg ($8/lb); moreover, a major manufacturer, based on its established technology and production plans, published plausible plans to sell for $7/lb or less by the end of 1997 and for only $11/kg ($5/lb) in 2000, both in current dollars. This would require no breakthroughs, but only the next stage of a rather well understood process for changing carbon-fiber production from a boutique into a commodity business--just as glass fiber, whose production volume is now two orders of magnitude larger, did decades ago.
So the strategic issue becomes how do you jump start that cycle.
We saw in the video game industry that it was done by running a loss leader on the hardware and money made on the software
We saw Intel license to set the standard then close it down
What you’re trying to build here is the bandwagon effect.
This circle can also work in the opposite direction
Once the ball starts rolling against you you’re in real trouble.
If you don’t get platform support you’re lost.
With the result that Apple by 1990 was on the glide path to history.
http://www.semichips.org/pre_release.cfm?ID=203
Today’s state-of-the-art semiconductor chips feature technology nodes of 0.18 micron (180 nanometers) with 0.13 micron (130 nanometers) technologies just beginning to reach the marketplace. In the previous roadmap released in 1999, it called for the future generations of dynamic random access memories to feature critical dimensions of 100 nanometers in 2005, then 70 nanometers in 2008, 50 nanometers in 2011 and 35 nanometers in 2014.
Now the industry plans to deliver 90 nanometers (2004),
65 nanometers (2007),
45 nanometers (2010), 32 nanometers (2013) and 22 nanometers (2016). This 2001 schedule translates to smaller chip dimensions earlier in time than previously thought. (Note: a micron is one-millionth of a meter. A nanometer is one-billionth of a meter. A human hair is typically 100 microns, or 100,000 nanometers in width. A red blood cell is 5 microns or 5,000 nanometers is width.)
Desktop to network centric computing
Gas lights to electric
1870 there were 350 firms making equipment for the gas industry
By the time we went to electricity came down to GE, Westinghouse and Philips.
The second technology maty underperform to begin with