Demographic Research Methods

SOC/CS&SS 533

Winter 2021

Instructor: Darryl J. Holman

Email: djholman@u.washington.edu
Voice: 206-543-7586
Fax: 206-543-3285

Office: Padelford C-019 (CSSS)

Course Information

Note: This course is being held on-line via Zoom. Registered students have received an email with the meeting information. Access to handouts, course notes, etc. require a UWNetID login. If you cannot access these items, contact the instructor.

Media (Recorded Lectures)

Recorded lectures and other course links are indexed here.

Scope

Scope: Demographic methods are tools used in population science and many allied disciplines. In this course, we examine the fundamental concepts, measures, and models that demographers use to understand human population dynamics. The course covers how demographers measure and estimate population growth, mortality, fertility, marriage, and migration. We will examine both empirical and model-based methods for description, hypothesis testing and forecasting.

Objectives: After completing this course you will have familiarity with the concepts and major tools used for demographic analysis, as well as the ability to apply many of the tools to demographic data. The tools will be applied in exercises and by conducting a research project.

Times

Tuesday and Thursday at 2:30 pm-3:50 pm online.

Office hours: I will typically be available after class. I will hold office hours Wednesdays from 11am until 12pm. See the course media web page for a Zoom link. Other meeting times can be arranged. Call (3-7586) or email (djholman@u.washington.edu) with questions or to set up an appointment.

Textbook and Readings

The textbook is

Preston SH, Heuverline P, Guillot M (2001) Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.

Additional readings supplement the text. These readings will illustrate principles discussed in lecture and the text, and will also be used as the basis for some class discussions.

Grading

Grades: There will be 6 problem sets (11% each) that will make up 66% of your final grade, and a final research paper (34%). There are no exams.

Problem sets

Problem sets: The six problem sets will consist of analytical exercises and other short problems. Frequently, the problems will require (or be easiest) using computer software. Data sets for homework problems will be available on the course web site. You can use books, readings, notes, and web pages to help you work on the problems. In fact, you can work in groups on most exercises. Grades for late problem sets are reduced by 10% per day, including any fraction of a day late. Homework will be handed out and turned in through the course Canvas site.

Software

You can use any software that works for you and gets the job done. I strongly encourage you to do most of your work in a statistical programming language like R, Matlab, or Gauss. Most of the coding examples in this class will be in R, so it will be easiest for you to work in R unless you have excellent skills in another language. Short courses introducing R are given by CSSCR during the first two weeks of the quarter (see: http://depts.washington.edu/csscr/courses/) and occasionally by CSDE.

Project

34% of your course grade will be based on a project in the form of a data analysis paper using the methods covered in this course. I encourage you to work in a team of two on this project. A one paragraph description of your project will be due during week 6. If you don't already have a data set in mind, start early locating one. CSSCR has a data consultant (Tina Tian) who can help identify and procure relevant data sets. CSDE may be a useful resource as well. Feel free to discuss other sources of demographic data with me. The final project is due on 16 Mar 2021 by 6:20pm.

Course policies

Academic misconduct: The university policy on plagiarism and academic misconduct is a part of the Student Conduct Code, which cites the definition of academic misconduct in the WAC 478-121. According to this section of the WAC, academic misconduct includes: "Cheating"-such as "unauthorized assistance in taking quizzes", "Falsification" "which is the intentional use or submission of falsified data, records, or other information including, but not limited to, records of internship or practicum experiences or attendance at any required event(s), or scholarly research"; and "Plagiarism" which includes "[t]he use, by paraphrase or direct quotation, of the published or unpublished work of another person without full and clear acknowledgment."

The UW Libraries have a useful guide for students here.

Accommodation: Your experience in this class is important to me. If you have already established accommodations with Disability Resources for Students (DRS), please communicate your approved accommodations to me at your earliest convenience so we can discuss your needs in this course. The website for the DRS provides other resources for students and faculty for making accommodations.

Washington state law requires that UW develop a policy for accommodation of student absences or significant hardship due to reasons of faith or conscience, or for organized religious activities. The UW's policy, including more information about how to request an accommodation, is available at Religious Accommodations Policy . Accommodations must be requested within the first two weeks of this course using the Religious Accommodations Request form .

Inclusion: Among the core values of the university are inclusivity and diversity, regardless of race, gender, income, ability, beliefs, and other ways that people distinguish themselves and others. If any assignments and activities are not accessible to you, please contact me so we can make arrangements to include you by making an alternative assignment available.

Learning often involves the exchange of ideas. To include everyone in the learning process, I expect you will demonstrate respect, politeness, reasonableness, and willingness to listen to others at all times-even when passions run high. Behaviors must support learning, understanding, and scholarship.

Preventing violence is a shared responsibility in which everyone at the UW plays apart. If you experience harassment during your studies, please report it to the SafeCampus website (anonymous reports are possible, washington.edu/safecampus/). SafeCampus provides information on counseling and safety resources, University policies, and violence reporting requirements help us maintain a safe personal, work and learning environme

Topics and Schedule

Week 1: Basic concepts and measures (Jan 5, 7)

PHG Ch 1
Cohn & Caumont (2016)

Week 2: Age-specific rates and probabilities (Jan 12, 14)

PHG Ch 2

Overheads (Jan 12)
Overheads (Jan 14)
Problem set 1 distributed (Tuesday) via Canvass

Week 3: Life tables (Jan 19, 21)

PHG Ch 3
Gehan (1969)

Overheads (Jan 19)
Overheads (Jan 21)
HMOHIV data set (lecture example)
Life table program for HMOHIV data set (lecxture example)
Problem set 1 due (Tuesday)
Problem set 2 distributed (Thursday)

Week 4: Multiple decrement life tables (Jan 26, 28)

PHG Ch 4

Overheads (corrected) (Jan 26)
Overheads (corrected) (Jan 28)
Problem set 2 due (Thursday)
Problem set 3 distributed (Thursday)

Week 5: Fertility and reproduction (Feb 2, 4)

PHG Ch 5
Zeman et al. (2018)

Overheads (Feb 2)
Overheads (Feb 4)
Problem set 3 due (Thursday).

Week 6: Population projection methods (Feb 9, 11)

PHG Ch 6

Overheads (Feb 9)
Overheads (Feb 11)
Paragraph project description due (Tuesday) (email to me with subject line "533 Project")
Problem set 4 distributed (Tuesday)

Week 7: The stable population model (Feb 16, 18)

PHG Ch 7, 8

Overheads (Feb 16) (corrected)
Overheads (Feb 18) (corrected)
Problem set 4 due (Thursday)
Problem set 5 distributed (Thursday)

Week 8: Modeling age patterns of vital events (Feb 23, 25)

Overheads (Feb 23)
Overheads (Feb 25)
Problem set 5 due (Thursday).

Week 9: Heterogeneity. Data quality (Mar 2, 4)

PHG Ch 10
Vaupel and Yashin (1985).

Week 10: Indirect estimation methods (Mar 9, 11)

PHG Ch 11
Jurdak et al. (2015)

Overheads (Mar 9)
Overheads (Mar 11)
CSSS 563 flyer for spring 2021
Problem set 6 due (Thursday).

Week 11: Final project due on 16 Mar 2021 by 6:20pm

Links

References

^*Burch TK. (2018) Theory, computers and the parameterization of demographic behavior. In Burch TK, Model-Based Demography. NY:Springer. (pp. 97-110).
Bongaarts J, Potter RG. (1983) Fertility, Biology and Behavior-An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants of Fertility. New York: Academic Press.
Coale AJ and Demeny P (1966) Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
^*Cohn D, Caumont AN. (2016) 10 demographic trends that are shaping the US and the world. Pew Research Center. Mar 31.
^*Gehan EA (1969) Estimating survival functions from the life table. Journal of Chronic Diseases 13:629-644.
Hinde A (1998) Demographic Methods. NY: Oxford University Press.
^*Jurdak R, Zhao K, Liu J, AbouJaoude M, Cameron M, Newth D. (2015) Understanding human mobility from Twitter. PloS one. 10(7):e0131469.
Keyfitz N, Caswell H (2005) Applied Mathematical Demography. 3rd edition. New York: Springer.
Namboodiri K (1991) Demographic Analysis: A Stochastic Approach. San Diego: Academic Press.
Newell C (1988) Methods and Models in Demography. New York: The Guilford Press.
Palmore JA, Gardner RW (1994) Measuring Mortality, Fertility, and Natural Increase. Honolulu: East-West Center.
^*Preston SH, Heuverline P, Guillot M (2001) Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
^*Scholey J, Vaupel JW, Jacobsen R, Oeppen J (2016). The Gestational Age Pattern of Human Mortality. Abstract from 7th Demographic Conference of "Young Demographers", Prague, Czech Republic.
Shryock HS, Siegal JS and associates (1973) The Methods and Materials of Demography. Washington D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Volumes 1 and 2.
United Nations (1982) Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. New York: United Nations.
United Nations (1983) Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies No. 81, Manual X, Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. New York: United Nations.
^*Vaupel JW, Yashin AI (1985) Heterogeneity's ruses: some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics. The American Statistician. 39(3):176-85.
Wachter KW (2014) Essential Demographic Methods. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Yusuf F, Martins JM, Swanson DA (2014) Methods of Demographic Analysis. New York: Springer.
^*Zeman K, Beaujouan É, Brzozowska Z, Sobotka T (2018) Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios. Demographic Research. 38(25):651-90.

^* Required book for this course