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| Debate questions |
| What do policy advocates hope to achieve by arguing in public over scientific points? (knowledge & training issues) | |
| Why do senior political figures appear to disagree on basic scientific questions when they have ready access to scientific experts and advisors for clarification? | |
| What are the effects of such blended scientific and political arguments of the policy-making process. | |
| Misrepresentation of state of scientific knowledge | |
| Exaggerations of the extent & significance of of scientific uncertainty | |
| Table 5.1 Estimates of global average temperature changes under different assumptions about changes in greenhouse gases and clouds |
| Background on Climate and climate change |
| Figure 1.1 Global average concentration of CO2 over past 1000 years |
| Background on climate-change policy |
| FCCC |
| FCCC continued |
| Kyoto emission limits |
| Figure 2.1 Total atmospheric ozone in October, Antarctica |
| Al Gore: |
| Us Senator Inhofe |
| Wall Street Journal |
| Natonal Post of Canada & S. Fred Singer |
| F. Sherwood Rowland |
| Scientific Method |
| Fig 1.1.1 Scientific Method |
| Deductive & Inductive Reasoning |
| Deductive reasoning works from the more general to the more specific. Sometimes this is informally called a "top-down" approach. We might begin with thinking up a theory about our topic of interest. We then narrow that down into more specific hypotheses that we can test. We narrow down even further when we collect observations to address the hypotheses. This ultimately leads us to be able to test the hypotheses with specific data -- a confirmation (or not) of our original theories. | |
| Inductive reasoning works the other way, moving from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Informally, we sometimes call this a "bottom up" approach In inductive reasoning, we begin with specific observations and measures, begin to detect patterns and regularities, formulate some tentative hypotheses that we can explore, and finally end up developing some general conclusions or theories. |
| Conceptualization of Deduction & Induction |
| Figure 3.1 Combined annual land-surface are & sea-surface temperature anomalies (deg.C) from 1861 to 2000, measured relative to the 1961-1990 avwerage. |