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| Who were/are RussiaÕs Kyoto stakeholder players? |
| What has been RussiaÕs history regarding Kyoto? |
| Duma (2003) WWF (Dec. 2003) survey of Duma - <25% favor, >50% ratification possible, >25% opposed | |||
| 2003 250 RAS members sign NGO petition favoring adoption of Kyoto | |||
| Jan. 2004 Chair State DumaÕs international affairs committee says parliamentary hearings would be held spring 2004 | |||
| Lots of controversy late winter to autumn 2004 | |||
| May 2004, Putin has WTO accession talks with EU | |||
| Sept 23, 2004, Ministry of Natural Resources formally recommends Kyoto Approval | |||
| Sept 27, 2004, Illarionov compares Kyoto Protocol to Fascism | |||
| Sept 30, 2004, Russian Cabinet of Ministers approves federal law to ratify Kyoto | |||
| Nov 18, 2004, Russia ratifies Kyoto | |||
| Feb 16, 2005, Kyoto Protocol enters into force | |||
| Feb 2006 161 nations have ratified Kyoto Protocol | |||
| Andrei Illarionov, still frame from NTV channel |
| Meeting of the Russian Cabinet of Ministers / Frame from NTV Channel |
| Why did Russia ratify the Kyoto Protocol? |
| Marrakech 2202, Russian bargains hard for 30% drop below 1990 baseline levels for calculating Òcarbon creditsÓ, due to steep economic decline | |||
| Emissions trading, ~$10 Billion over next 10 years | |||
| AAUs - Assigned Amount units | |||
| JI - Joint Implementation | |||
| CDM - Clean Development Mechanism | |||
| Renewal energy projects, geothermal, winds, biomass | |||
| Decision probably more political process than scientific or policy debate | |||
| EU support for WTO membership | |||
| Cap and Trade: Data for Two Case Studies |
| Carbon Intensity by Region, 2001-2025 (Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent per Million $1997) |
| Slide 9 |
| Scenarios for Russian CO2 emissions assuming growth rates of 2, 4, 6, and 7.2% (GDP doubling in 10 years) for fast and slow intensity improvements |
| Source: Alexander A. Golub, ÒThe Kyoto Protocol and Steady Economic Growth in Russia: Road Block or Path Forward?Ó (http://3980_steadyeconomicgrowthinRussia_09082004.pdf) |
| Russian GDP and Energy Intensity Projections |
| Table I.13. Characteristics of Scenarios of Emissions of Kyoto Gases in the Russian Federation to 20201 |
| Estimated GHG emissions in 2004 & potential for reductions in RussiaÕs natural gas sector & gas flaring |
| Generic potential JI project types by sector |
| What are the elements/needs for Russian institutional compliance? |
| PAMs - implement domestic policies and measures | |||
| Implement annual GHG inventories according to IPCC guidelines | |||
| Establish a registry to track domestic emissions and implementation of the Kyoto mechanisms and commitments under Kyoto | |||
| Report all of above to UNFCCC Secretariat | |||
| Status and Importance of Regional GHG Inventories in Russia |
| What are the Russian major compliance/data gap problems? |
| Forestry inventories not consistent with IPCC requirements, quality varies between regions | |||
| Data for gas flaring and coal-mine methane not available | |||
| Data for waste sector not available | |||
| Data for agriculture not available | |||
| Some problems with industrial activity data | |||
| Lack of data for transport, municipal and residential fuel consumption | |||
| Russian Kyoto Compliance Summary |
| Russian Challenges to Creation of a Strong Climate-Change-Related Policy and Strategy |
| Revamping the Economy | ||
| Perfecting market policy | ||
| Fighting corruption | ||
| Raising peopleÕs well-being | ||
| Strengthening civil society institutions (rule of law) | ||
| Conflicting perspectives and approaches regarding (regional) development | ||
| Conflicting perspectives and approaches to environmental problems and management | ||
| The harsh environment, especially ÒThe NorthÓ | ||
| Much of country has average temperature <5¼C | ||
| High energy expenditures for heating and transport | ||
| Energy needs are and for foreseeable future will be met by traditional CO2 emission-heavy hydrocarbon sources | ||
| Significant Results Arising from Russian Ratification of Kyoto |
| More laggard nations motivated to ratify Kyoto treaty – 18 countries ratified between 18 November 2004 and April 2005, including 7 OPEC countries | |
| Helped launch the regime of obligatory quantified limitations on GHG emissions by most Annex I countries | |
| Provided vigorous momentum to creation of the market for carbon credits | |
| Provoked and diversified further international dialogue on responding to climate change |
| Benefits to Russia from Kyoto Ratification |
| Elevated Russia as international power player | |
| Reinforced RussiaÕs diplomatic positions at multilateral climate change talks | |
| Better positions Russia for influence in post-2012 climate negotiations | |
| Mechanism for boosting technological renovation of national economy | |
| GIS and CDM investments | |
| Revenue for sale of carbon credits | |
| May raise climate change issue in Russian economic and political priorities |
| Key Challenges to Russia as a Result of Its Ratification of Kyoto Protocol |
| Significant economic burden | ||
| Potential serious conflicts with RussiaÕs economic growth targets | ||
| Future losses in Russian oil sector – largest source of RussiaÕs foreign currency | ||
| Uncertain market for Russian carbon credits | ||
| Competition from East European nations and Ukraine | ||
| Reduced demand without U.S. accession to Kyoto | ||
| Technological, institutional, legal, organizational limitations and difficulties with compliance | ||
| Need to marry and bring into alignment all climate change policy components with other strategic development goals and tasks | ||
| Focusing forward |
| Russian energy issues will dominate over climate change issues | |
| In near term Russian political considrations will dominate over economic ones as long as Russia is not well integrated into the global economy - a mixed blessing | |
| Russia has moved slowly on Kyoto implementation institutions and given the USÕs intransigence on Kyoto and climate change issues this is not surprising | |
| Ukrainian actions could speed up Russian implementation | |
| Other foreign pressure e.g., EU will likely not be productive | |
| Russia will remain skeptical of market approaches, entitlement issues, mismatch with developed countries regarding institutional and legal clarity | |
| Figure 5.8 Changes in IPCC model grids |
| Setting up a numerical atmospheric model |
| Data sources for UK Met
Office global weather forecasting model. Figures 5.4a & 5.4B Source: Houghton, 2009, pp. 98. |
| Data sources for UK Met
Office global weather forecasting model. Figures 5.4c & 5.4d Source: Houghton, 2009, pp. 99. |
| Figure 5.5 Errors |
| Figure 5.6 Potential Improvements in Forecast Skill |
| Figure 5.7. Pendulum illustrations |
| Figure 5.8 Isopleths of surface pressure patterns from 51-member ensemble |
| Figure 5.9. Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) |
| Figure 5.10 Schematic illustrationg El Nino oscillation. |
| Figure 5.11 Observed Sahel July-September rainfall |
| Figure 5.12 Plots of forecasts of El Nino events forcasting sea surface temperatue |
| Figure 5.13 Schematic of the climate system |
| Figure 5.14 Schematic of the physical processes associated with clouds. |
| Figure 5.15a Annual mean net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) |
| Figure 5.15b Comparison of observed longwave, short wave, & net radiation at top of atmosphere. |
| Table 5.1 Estiamtes of global average temperature changes under different assumptions about changes in greenhous gases and clouds |